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Author Topic: Vaccine/Antibody updates  (Read 357025 times)

Frenns Liquor Depot

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pbiflyer

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #201 on: July 16, 2020, 07:22:21 PM »

GooooMarquette

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #202 on: July 16, 2020, 07:37:56 PM »
Skatastrophy already hit some of the main points.

The problem with vaccines is that they are not really profitable. If it works properly, you very quickly do not have much of a product to sell. The best case from a revenue perspective would be for this to need to be administered regularly (not a 1-off). But even then, there is so much competition right now, where they are all largely using similar technology, that no one will corner the market.

On top of that there are public pushes to minimize profit off these vaccines since they are so heavily financed by the taxpayer.

All that combines to leave Moderna few options for long-term growth/profits from these discoveries. So, cashing out now based on a bit of hysteria, makes a lot of sense.

It is also interesting to see, again, that right after Moderna releases this data, more promising results come out of other groups. In this case the Oxford studies, where they saw a robust T-cell response. That is promising in relation to other studies saying any long-term immunity will necessitate a robust T-cell response.

I'm just excited that we are seeing promising results from multiple efforts. A bit concerned about Moderna's safety profile though, especially when they put this in people over the age of 55 (haven't done so yet).


Agreed on all points. I am much more optimistic about the Oxford vaccine because of the T-cell response you mentioned. Not that the Moderna one is doomed to failure, but it has a fair bit left to prove.

Pakuni

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Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #204 on: July 20, 2020, 07:38:24 AM »
Interesting discussion of getting immunity to the right point of the body.  Our local Yale virologist is quoted. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/health/coronavirus-nasal-vaccines.html

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #205 on: July 20, 2020, 07:40:26 AM »
Not good, Bob.
Antibodies appear to be short-lived.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/With-coronavirus-antibodies-fading-fast-focus-15414533.php?utm_campaign=CMS%20Sharing%20Tools%20(Premium)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

Everything I’ve read over the last week or so seems to point to this being an attention getting headline, but not exactly how things work.  I guess we should not necessarily worry about this and immediately connect it to short lived immunity.  More to come I’m sure. 

GooooMarquette

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #206 on: July 20, 2020, 07:44:07 AM »
Everything I’ve read over the last week or so seems to point to this being an attention getting headline, but not exactly how things work.  I guess we should not necessarily worry about this and immediately connect it to short lived immunity.  More to come I’m sure.


Agreed - this is not good news, as it increases the likelihood that it will take longer than we'd like to have this 'past' us. All the more reason to significantly pull back reopening in states seeing surges, and mandate masks and social distancing everywhere.


MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #208 on: July 20, 2020, 09:10:24 AM »

Pakuni

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Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #210 on: July 20, 2020, 09:31:02 AM »
Links and comment for the vaccine data released today (Oxford & CanSino)

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1285210634032951299?s=21

forgetful

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #211 on: July 20, 2020, 10:53:55 AM »
Links and comment for the vaccine data released today (Oxford & CanSino)

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1285210634032951299?s=21

Right now these are the two vaccines I'm most excited/optimistic about. As I mentioned previously, their T-cell response (absent in the Modern vaccine candidate) is an important aspect of potential utility.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #212 on: July 20, 2020, 11:01:54 AM »
Right now these are the two vaccines I'm most excited/optimistic about. As I mentioned previously, their T-cell response (absent in the Modern vaccine candidate) is an important aspect of potential utility.

Step 2 is scale up
Step 3 is getting people injected (good luck with some folks)

forgetful

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #213 on: July 20, 2020, 11:18:31 AM »
Step 2 is scale up
Step 3 is getting people injected (good luck with some folks)

I still have concerns on what we will see in the phase 3 trials in Brazil.  What happens when a person is exposed to SARS-CoV2 after getting these vaccines. Some previous SARS candidate vaccines ended up causing more severe illnesses. It seems, at least possibly, Moderna used their strategy to avoid some T-cell responses to avoid such a scenario.

We need to see what happens in exposed individuals.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #214 on: July 20, 2020, 11:26:30 AM »
I still have concerns on what we will see in the phase 3 trials in Brazil.  What happens when a person is exposed to SARS-CoV2 after getting these vaccines. Some previous SARS candidate vaccines ended up causing more severe illnesses. It seems, at least possibly, Moderna used their strategy to avoid some T-cell responses to avoid such a scenario.

We need to see what happens in exposed individuals.

Might we see a world where we take the first available vaccine to slow this down significantly, while waiting for a better vaccine to confer better immunity in the long term?

rocky_warrior

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #215 on: July 20, 2020, 11:50:41 AM »
Step 2 is scale up
Step 3 is getting people injected (good luck with some folks)

I'm not an anti-vaxxer by any means.  But if I think they've rushed something out, I'll wait 6 months before getting an injection.  I'll still be cautious about interactions with people in the meantime.  I'm not judging anybody that chooses to wait a bit if a vaccine is out late this year/early next.  That's a ridiculously fast timeline to be "fully vetted"

Hards Alumni

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #216 on: July 20, 2020, 12:00:18 PM »
I'm not an anti-vaxxer by any means.  But if I think they've rushed something out, I'll wait 6 months before getting an injection.  I'll still be cautious about interactions with people in the meantime.  I'm not judging anybody that chooses to wait a bit if a vaccine is out late this year/early next.  That's a ridiculously fast timeline to be "fully vetted"

Problem is if everyone makes the same decision we are screwed.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #217 on: July 20, 2020, 12:09:24 PM »
I'll go first.  Someone has to.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #218 on: July 20, 2020, 12:13:04 PM »
Can I get all of them?

Honestly Rocky the same thought has crossed my mind, specifically with the political desire to announce something successful within a certain timeframe.  I am watching the commentary from doctors after phase 3 trials, and if they seem convinced, I'm in.

forgetful

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #219 on: July 20, 2020, 12:15:58 PM »
Might we see a world where we take the first available vaccine to slow this down significantly, while waiting for a better vaccine to confer better immunity in the long term?

I think this is exactly what we will see. If we have something that is 40-50% effective, places like NY will then be already at "herd immunity".

If we can find something upwards of 70% effective, and proven safe for everyone under 65 (arbitrary cutoff). We are still good at achieving herd immunity, with largely no restrictions.

The threshold for herd-immunity for COVID should be roughly in the 50-70% range (based on 1 - 1/R0) and assuming an R0 of 2-3.

Even something that is introduced and induces 25% overall immunity (so not 100% effective, and not 100% buy-in), would likely get us to a point where the combined effects of masks, no bars/dine-in restaurants) could eradicate the virus.

We do not need 100% effectiveness. We do need it to be proven safe though.

rocky_warrior

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #220 on: July 20, 2020, 12:24:53 PM »
Problem is if everyone makes the same decision we are screwed.

I'd argue, if everyone makes the exact same decisions as me - we're in great shape.  Masks everywhere, social distancing, very little contact with others. 

But I understand your sentiment. 

Honestly Rocky the same thought has crossed my mind, specifically with the political desire to announce something successful within a certain timeframe.  I am watching the commentary from doctors after phase 3 trials, and if they seem convinced, I'm in.

I do agree with this - I did specifically say if *I* think it's been rushed out.  It''ll be a personal judgement, and I don't fault anyone for making it (Though if they don't take it, I also hope they're very careful like me)

JWags85

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #221 on: July 20, 2020, 12:58:56 PM »
I'd argue, if everyone makes the exact same decisions as me - we're in great shape.  Masks everywhere, social distancing, very little contact with others. 

But I understand your sentiment.

I respect our caution and your perspective, but let’s say you have a vaccine by Christmas. You’re talking mid 2021, aka another full year of expecting/asking people to mask up and socially distance. That’s a pretty big ask/hope if that’s how it’s gonna be beaten.  Unless I am misunderstanding

You’ve been reasonable even when we disagree, so I’m not coming at you, but I’m just very curious on peoples perceptions of what they’d be “ok” with indefinitely if that’s the case.

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #222 on: July 20, 2020, 01:03:16 PM »
Wags.  No one is talking about this yet (public policy wise), but you can have a vaccine and still need some of the measures you referenced.   

I don’t know if I’m ok or not ok with it but if you have only a partially effective vaccine you can still have problematic levels of spread. 

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #223 on: July 20, 2020, 01:12:15 PM »
I think once we have a vaccine that works even as good as the flu vaccine, the whole masking and social distancing thing will go away pretty quickly.  People will still get sick, but the numbers will fall off and serious spikes will be isolated and no longer all that newsworthy.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

BM1090

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #224 on: July 20, 2020, 01:49:51 PM »
I'll go first.  Someone has to.

Likewise. I was considering participating in a phase three trial.

 

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