Vaccine/Antibody updates

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I've only heard the herd immunity 'argument' from people that aren't scientifically literate. I've seen a few estimates about what % of the population has been infected so far and no country is close to herd immunity, even if getting sick meant that you would be immune forever. With COVID's R0 at a currently estimated ~5.5, we would need 85% of the population to become immune before cases stop dropping on their own (assuming no treatment and no vaccine, which is where we'll be for the next 6+ months).

This isn't the best source for % of each country's population infected, but it's easy to read and it's in the ballpark of what I've read elsewhere.

I agree with your judgement, but I heard it as recently as this weekend from a state leader in the south. So a not small percent of people think having the young people get the disease is a 'good thing'.

[Skatastrophy]

I agree with your judgment, but I heard it as recently as this weekend from a state leader in the south. So a not small percent of people think having the young people get the disease is a 'good thing'.

Hah! I stand by my statement

> I've only heard the herd immunity 'argument' from people that aren't scientifically literate.

[The Sultan]

I've only heard the herd immunity 'argument' from people that aren't scientifically literate. I've seen a few estimates about what % of the population has been infected so far and no country is close to herd immunity, even if getting sick meant that you would be immune forever. With COVID's R0 at a currently estimated ~5.5, we would need 85% of the population to become immune before cases stop dropping on their own (assuming no treatment and no vaccine, which is where we'll be for the next 6+ months).

This isn't the best source for % of each country's population infected, but it's easy to read and it's in the ballpark of what I've read elsewhere.

Wow, Sweden's idea worked....well. 

[tower912]

Experimenting with radiation to treat patients on ventilators.  Along the lines of an X-RAY blast.

[MUBurrow]

I'm late to the game here, but that herd immunity graph contrasted against the dashboard directly above it is wild. 
The UK has a population of 66.65 million.  If estimates put contracting the virus at 25% (to use the closest round number) that would be 16,662,500 cases.  And per the dashboard, the UK has had 309,456 confirmed cases as of this post.  That would mean that 1.9% of cases are ever confirmed. 

Doing that same math for the US at 5% of the population of a little over 328 million having contracted would be 16,410,000 cases and a confirmation rate of 14.8%. 

I know I'm doing some rounding with the contraction percentages, but is the US doing that much better a job testing than the UK?  And using the death numbers, are you really 3x more likely to die after contracting covid in the US vs the UK? Something seems off, those are some dramatic disparities.

[forgetful]

I'm late to the game here, but that herd immunity graph contrasted against the dashboard directly above it is wild. 
The UK has a population of 66.65 million.  If estimates put contracting the virus at 25% (to use the closest round number) that would be 16,662,500 cases.  And per the dashboard, the UK has had 309,456 confirmed cases as of this post.  That would mean that 1.9% of cases are ever confirmed. 

Doing that same math for the US at 5% of the population of a little over 328 million having contracted would be 16,410,000 cases and a confirmation rate of 14.8%. 

I know I'm doing some rounding with the contraction percentages, but is the US doing that much better a job testing than the UK?  And using the death numbers, are you really 3x more likely to die after contracting covid in the US vs the UK? Something seems off, those are some dramatic disparities.

The range is heavily dependent on which serological test results one uses. The antibody kits vary greatly in accuracy, and not all correct properly for statistics. I'd take those estimates with a grain of salt.

[pbiflyer]

And there has been limited research on immunity and how long it lasts.
If it only lasts a few months.......

[forgetful]

And there has been limited research on immunity and how long it lasts.
If it only lasts a few months.......

And there is some evidence that it does only last a couple months.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6

And this case of a woman getting it twice 12-weeks apart.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dallas-woman-battling-coronavirus-again/2389265/

[GooooMarquette]

And there is some evidence that it does only last a couple months.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6

And this case of a woman getting it twice 12-weeks apart.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dallas-woman-battling-coronavirus-again/2389265/

The other significant point - probably related to limited immunity - is that researchers appear to have identified two general categories of antibodies: those that show you have had COVID, and those that show you actually still have the capability to neutralize the virus. This distinction is behind Mayo Clinic offering two different serological tests.

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-launches-neutralizing-antibody-test-to-advance-covid-19-therapies/

The new test measures the level of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Neutralizing antibodies are a subset of antibodies able to independently inactivate viruses, and are associated with protective immunity against re-infection for many infectious pathogens.

"The neutralizing antibody test is a critical addition to our COVID-19 testing, expanding on the capabilities of the molecular tests used to diagnose active infection and the serology test, which indicates previous infection by identifying antibodies for the SARS-CoV-2 virus," says William Morice, II, M.D., Ph.D., president of Mayo Clinic Laboratories. "This new test provides us with incredibly important information about how effective a person's antibodies are at neutralizing the virus. This will help us identify optimal convalescent plasma donors and ultimately help assess the efficacy of anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines."

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Pfizer vaccine - positive result.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-shows-positive-results/

[Jockey]

Public health experts in the U.K. and Australia have expressed alarm at the move by the U.S. to purchase almost the entire global supply of a drug to treat the coronavirus.

Remdesivir, made by Gilead was originally trialled during the Ebola epidemic and is the first drug that has been approved by licensing authorities in the U.S. to treat COVID-19 after trials showed that it helped some recover from the disease more quickly.
The Trump administration has purchased more than 500,000 doses, which is all of Gilead's production of the drug for this month and 90 percent of its projected supply for August and September. It is made under patent to Gilead, at a cost of around $3,200 per treatment of six doses for richer countries

[The Sultan]

Gilead should allow third parties to produce it then for a licesing fee.  (If that's possible.  I don't know.)

[jesmu84]

Public health experts in the U.K. and Australia have expressed alarm at the move by the U.S. to purchase almost the entire global supply of a drug to treat the coronavirus.

Remdesivir, made by Gilead was originally trialled during the Ebola epidemic and is the first drug that has been approved by licensing authorities in the U.S. to treat COVID-19 after trials showed that it helped some recover from the disease more quickly.
The Trump administration has purchased more than 500,000 doses, which is all of Gilead's production of the drug for this month and 90 percent of its projected supply for August and September. It is made under patent to Gilead, at a cost of around $3,200 per treatment of six doses for richer countries

I understand wanting to seek out all options for battling a pandemic. Whether hydroxy, remdesivir, whatever.

But why spend all this money and also not pursue other avenues. Especially masks?

[GooooMarquette]

Public health experts in the U.K. and Australia have expressed alarm at the move by the U.S. to purchase almost the entire global supply of a drug to treat the coronavirus.

Remdesivir, made by Gilead was originally trialled during the Ebola epidemic and is the first drug that has been approved by licensing authorities in the U.S. to treat COVID-19 after trials showed that it helped some recover from the disease more quickly.
The Trump administration has purchased more than 500,000 doses, which is all of Gilead's production of the drug for this month and 90 percent of its projected supply for August and September. It is made under patent to Gilead, at a cost of around $3,200 per treatment of six doses for richer countries

In addition to being a very selfish move by the administration, it might also come back and bite us in the a$$ if drugs or vaccines are developed by companies in other countries. Notably, the most promising vaccine candidates are made by Chinese companies. Might other countries band together and hoard initial supplies at our expense?

We have not taken part in collaborative efforts to develop treatments, we have pulled funding from the WHO, and now we're hoarding supplies of drugs. It would be hard to blame other countries from excluding us when their efforts pay off....

[GooooMarquette]

Moderna, which had previously announced that its Phase III trial would begin on July 9, announced a delay in the start date to make changes to the protocol. They still hope to begin before the end of July.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/02/trial-of-moderna-covid-19-vaccine-delayed-investigators-say-but-july-start-still-possible/

Not a huge surprise, and not necessarily a red flag. I have worked with IRBs reviewing clinical trials for years, and last-minute changes to study protocols are quite commonplace. Often they relate to safety measures, timetables for assessing side effects, informed consent issues, etc. The only truly 'bad' news is that a delay in this high-profile trial probably looks negative to the general public, and might end the hope to get this out (if approved) before the end of the year.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Moderna has never successfully brought a single product to market, right? Doesn't inspire confidence.

[GooooMarquette]

Moderna has never successfully brought a single product to market, right? Doesn't inspire confidence.

Correct. Doesn't mean this won't be the one, but it certainly gives me pause.

My biggest concern is that the US seems to have put all its eggs on a few baskets...but specifically not the two Chinese vaccine candidates that I think are most promising.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Correct. Doesn't mean this won't be the one, but it certainly gives me pause.

My biggest concern is that the US seems to have put all its eggs on a few baskets...but specifically not the two Chinese vaccine candidates that I think are most promising.

From what I have read this isn't this case.  There are plenty in the race and the structure behind some of the Chinese vaccines are replicated by some American (And maybe Uk or eu) companies.  The Comment I heard was they will either all work or they all won't. 

[GooooMarquette]

From what I have read this isn't this case.  There are plenty in the race and the structure behind some of the Chinese vaccines are replicated by some American (And maybe Uk or eu) companies.  The Comment I heard was they will either all work or they all won't.

It's possible that they will all work or they all won't...but if the vaccines aren't identical there will still be varying degrees of antibody response and side effects that could lead to some being noticeably better than others.

[Skatastrophy]

Moderna has never successfully brought a single product to market, right? Doesn't inspire confidence.

Most of their revenue is from collabs with Merek, AstraZeneca, and Vertex. Basically, Moderna licensing the findings of their mRNA research so that those companies can create and commercialize treatments based on it. They're a player fo sho.

[mu_hilltopper]

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

If true .. #EndTimes...

[Hards Alumni]

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

If true .. #EndTimes...

[rocky_warrior]

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

If true .. #EndTimes...

Hm..  I don't doubt the storyis true, but it is possible his first positive test result was a false positive (mild cough, sore throat) and he's actually got covid-19 now.

[pbiflyer]

Hm..  I don't doubt the storyis true, but it is possible his first positive test result was a false positive (mild cough, sore throat) and he's actually got covid-19 now.

I don't understand why there isn't more research on this. Maybe it is just that what you are saying is the accepted scenario. And hopefully accurate.

[rocky_warrior]

I don't understand why there isn't more research on this. Maybe it is just that what you are saying is the accepted scenario. And hopefully accurate.

I think it's very difficult to research in people because it's not happening much (at all?).  Also, those few that get it "a second time" don't have samples available from their first test / infection to verify.

The NIH had a study with 2 macaques monkeys (and other testing of patients), and determined reinfection is very unlikely.  Though some patients can remain "sick" for a long time.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255905/