Vaccine/Antibody updates

[forgetful]

Hm..  I don't doubt the storyis true, but it is possible his first positive test result was a false positive (mild cough, sore throat) and he's actually got covid-19 now.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dallas-woman-battling-coronavirus-again/2389265/

I think this case is the best evidence of multiple infections. Both times hospitalized. Not only positive tests both times, but positive antibody tests after the first bout (and donating plasma).

[Warriors4ever]

But the article says that her doctors don’t believe it’s a new infection. They believe that the virus went dormant and then re-emerged. Which is also not a good scenario.

[forgetful]

But the article says that her doctors don’t believe it’s a new infection. They believe that the virus went dormant and then re-emerged. Which is also not a good scenario.

I think this is because there is no obvious source of a 2nd transmission.

Regardless, the presence of antibodies did not grant protection. Whether it is re-emergence, or re-infection is a moot point in regards to undetectable levels of virus, and the inability of antibodies to protect from serious illness.

[Babybluejeans]

If antibodies don’t confer immunity then the search for a vaccine is a fruitless effort and would also undermine most of what we know about virology in general. It’s highly doubtful there isn’t more to the story here.

[forgetful]

If antibodies don’t confer immunity then the search for a vaccine is a fruitless effort and would also undermine most of what we know about virology in general. It’s highly doubtful there isn’t more to the story here.

Gooo has touched on this before, but there is a very specific type of antibody that is believed to generate some degree/form of immunity. The Mayo Clinic is working on a test for those antibodies, and some companies are manufacturing those antibodies as possible treatments.

So if you can develop a vaccine, that elicits a very high and long lasting degree of those antibodies, a vaccine may prove useful. Not all the vaccines currently in development are equivalent in developing these antibodies.

[GooooMarquette]

Gooo has touched on this before, but there is a very specific type of antibody that is believed to generate some degree/form of immunity. The Mayo Clinic is working on a test for those antibodies, and some companies are manufacturing those antibodies as possible treatments.

So if you can develop a vaccine, that elicits a very high and long lasting degree of those antibodies, a vaccine may prove useful. Not all the vaccines currently in development are equivalent in developing these antibodies.

That is still the current status as I understand it.

As you indicate, that doesn’t make it impossible to develop a useful vaccine, but it greatly reduces the odds of coming up with one soon.

[Jockey]

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro is leading a Trump administration effort to demand the Food and Drug Administration reverse course and grant a second emergency authorization for the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine to treat covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

[jesmu84]

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro is leading a Trump administration effort to demand the Food and Drug Administration reverse course and grant a second emergency authorization for the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine to treat covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

Wtf.

Does someone in admin have ties to profit off this drug?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Wtf.

Does someone in admin have ties to profit off this drug?

https://www.propublica.org/article/republican-billionaire-group-pushes-unproven-covid-19-treatment-trump-promoted

https://theweek.com/speedreads/907277/trump-small-personal-financial-interest-hydroxycholorquine-drugmaker-allies-have-bigger-stakes

[JWags85]

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro is leading a Trump administration effort to demand the Food and Drug Administration reverse course and grant a second emergency authorization for the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine to treat covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

I’m just shocked that Navarro is doing something besides screaming and obsessing about China

[BM1090]

Good news, but a long way to go.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-produced-robust-immune-response-in-all-patients.html

[forgetful]

Good news, but a long way to go.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-produced-robust-immune-response-in-all-patients.html

Good results, but I'm a bit confused. They say this is now the full data, but it seems to contradict some of their preliminary data released, where I don't believe they saw neutralizing antibodies in all groups. They also originally said due to side effects, they were going to cease the high-dose group/studies. But they report more and new results for that group.

I'll chalk that up to the prior release being incorrect, and solely to make money for the people that quickly sold options, and this release (which is suggested as peer reviewed), the more accurate one.

If so, good news.

[GooooMarquette]

Good results, but I'm a bit confused. They say this is now the full data, but it seems to contradict some of their preliminary data released, where I don't believe they saw neutralizing antibodies in all groups. They also originally said due to side effects, they were going to cease the high-dose group/studies. But they report more and new results for that group.

I'll chalk that up to the prior release being incorrect, and solely to make money for the people that quickly sold options, and this release (which is suggested as peer reviewed), the more accurate one.

If so, good news.

Agreed. If the numbers hold up and the study gets through Phase III trials without bad side effects, it would be a big step in the right direction.

[BM1090]

https://apnews.com/e4d5259bfc6c74fcb090d885737c55a6?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

Update with quotes from Dr. Fauci and a few other doctors.

[pbiflyer]

https://apnews.com/e4d5259bfc6c74fcb090d885737c55a6?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

Update with quotes from Dr. Fauci and a few other doctors.

Makes me feel better.

[forgetful]

Good news and less good news regarding the vaccine hunt.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z?

Infections with the original SARS generates significant immunity 17-years later. Evidence that infection with other coronaviruses may also provide some protection, particularly other beta-coronaviruses. The immunity is driven by T-cells which recognize some of the non-structural proteins that are conserved between the viruses.

Less good news. The Moderna vaccine has a poor (or absent) T-cell response. It is suggested that this is by design, as previous SARS vaccines that drive a robust T-cell response have significant side effects. But if the more robust immunity is being driven by the T-cells, then the design strategy of Moderna may not function well, or be particularly durable. Hopefully worst case that means getting a vaccine every year.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Good news and less good news regarding the vaccine hunt.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z?

Infections with the original SARS generates significant immunity 17-years later. Evidence that infection with other coronaviruses may also provide some protection, particularly other beta-coronaviruses. The immunity is driven by T-cells which recognize some of the non-structural proteins that are conserved between the viruses.

Less good news. The Moderna vaccine has a poor (or absent) T-cell response. It is suggested that this is by design, as previous SARS vaccines that drive a robust T-cell response have significant side effects. But if the more robust immunity is being driven by the T-cells, then the design strategy of Moderna may not function well, or be particularly durable. Hopefully worst case that means getting a vaccine every year.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483?

Or we start with #2 and later switch to a more robust vaccine for later shots. 

[MarquetteDano]

Less good news. The Moderna vaccine has a poor (or absent) T-cell response. It is suggested that this is by design, as previous SARS vaccines that drive a robust T-cell response have significant side effects. But if the more robust immunity is being driven by the T-cells, then the design strategy of Moderna may not function well, or be particularly durable. Hopefully worst case that means getting a vaccine every year.

You had expressed concern earlier in this thread (though, could have been a similar thread) about Moderna's release of information very early in the process.  There are legitimate reasons sometimes why companies get out in front of news stories.

Well you may be proven right.  It sure seems like Moderna execs (i.e. insiders by SEC calculations) are doing a lot of selling of shares.  That isn't so unusual.... a lot of reasons to sell shares (too big a portion of portfoliio, tax reasons,  raise cash for a purchase of a house, etc.).   What is suspicious though is very few insiders seem to be buying shares outside of option exercising.  And only one reason to buy... knowing you will sell later at a higher price.

Perhaps the insiders know the news isn't all going to be good for them down the road?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This sounds good.  I guess the Lancet will post data Monday. 

https://news.yahoo.com/hopes-coronavirus-vaccine-boosted-reported-115924064.html

[cheebs09]

This sounds good.  I guess the Lancet will post data Monday. 

https://news.yahoo.com/hopes-coronavirus-vaccine-boosted-reported-115924064.html

Wow. Widely available in September? Is this far ahead of the Moderna vaccine?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Wow. Widely available in September? Is this far ahead of the Moderna vaccine?

It seems like they pump the brakes a bit on that later in the article.  "most likely next year"

[Skatastrophy]

You had expressed concern earlier in this thread (though, could have been a similar thread) about Moderna's release of information very early in the process.  There are legitimate reasons sometimes why companies get out in front of news stories.

Well you may be proven right.  It sure seems like Moderna execs (i.e. insiders by SEC calculations) are doing a lot of selling of shares.  That isn't so unusual.... a lot of reasons to sell shares (too big a portion of portfoliio, tax reasons,  raise cash for a purchase of a house, etc.).   What is suspicious though is very few insiders seem to be buying shares outside of option exercising.  And only one reason to buy... knowing you will sell later at a higher price.

Perhaps the insiders know the news isn't all going to be good for them down the road?

If I worked there I'd sell, Moderna hasn't had a profitable year yet. It's unlikely that producing a vaccine will be a windfall for any company, and this pandemic has been great marketing for Moderna's brand and stock.  Also, they just went public late 2018 and this is the first time their stock popped (even though it was a pretty big IPO as far as biotechs go).

Their mRNA research hasn't yielded any marketable products yet, though other big boys in biotech have licensed their research which has generated a little revenue for them.

Again, no clear reason to buy or even hold Moderna unless you really believe that their mRNA research is going to turn them into a huge player. Right now their market cap is already 1/3 of Gilead's, which is a little nuts. Gilead prints money.

[GooooMarquette]

Wow. Widely available in September? Is this far ahead of the Moderna vaccine?

If it was actually available by September - yes, it would beat Moderna by at least six months.

My guess is that a cautiously optimistic estimate would be early 2021 for both...if everything goes well in their studies.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

This sounds good.  I guess the Lancet will post data Monday. 

https://news.yahoo.com/hopes-coronavirus-vaccine-boosted-reported-115924064.html

IIRC, the Oxford group had a leg up because their vaccine had already previously been shown to be safe long term.

[forgetful]

You had expressed concern earlier in this thread (though, could have been a similar thread) about Moderna's release of information very early in the process.  There are legitimate reasons sometimes why companies get out in front of news stories.

Well you may be proven right.  It sure seems like Moderna execs (i.e. insiders by SEC calculations) are doing a lot of selling of shares.  That isn't so unusual.... a lot of reasons to sell shares (too big a portion of portfoliio, tax reasons,  raise cash for a purchase of a house, etc.).   What is suspicious though is very few insiders seem to be buying shares outside of option exercising.  And only one reason to buy... knowing you will sell later at a higher price.

Perhaps the insiders know the news isn't all going to be good for them down the road?

Skatastrophy already hit some of the main points.

The problem with vaccines is that they are not really profitable. If it works properly, you very quickly do not have much of a product to sell. The best case from a revenue perspective would be for this to need to be administered regularly (not a 1-off). But even then, there is so much competition right now, where they are all largely using similar technology, that no one will corner the market.

On top of that there are public pushes to minimize profit off these vaccines since they are so heavily financed by the taxpayer.

All that combines to leave Moderna few options for long-term growth/profits from these discoveries. So, cashing out now based on a bit of hysteria, makes a lot of sense.

It is also interesting to see, again, that right after Moderna releases this data, more promising results come out of other groups. In this case the Oxford studies, where they saw a robust T-cell response. That is promising in relation to other studies saying any long-term immunity will necessitate a robust T-cell response.

I'm just excited that we are seeing promising results from multiple efforts. A bit concerned about Moderna's safety profile though, especially when they put this in people over the age of 55 (haven't done so yet).