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Author Topic: Vaccine/Antibody updates  (Read 356901 times)

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #25 on: April 29, 2020, 01:17:26 PM »
Ok .. so true or false, a COVID anti-body test .. after 20 days, 200 days will they be able to detect COVID antibodies / is it harder to detect / more false positives/negatives?

that's a little to complicated for a T/F question.  Time for some Horsey sauce to fix your brain waves.

forgetful

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #26 on: April 29, 2020, 01:50:43 PM »
Ok .. so true or false, a COVID anti-body test .. after 20 days, 200 days will they be able to detect COVID antibodies / is it harder to detect / more false positives/negatives?

After 20 days, yes, you will be able to detect antibodies. Tests have a greater than 95% accuracy in detecting antibodies at that time frame, some over 99% accurate. So minimal false negatives.

After 200 days, we don't even know if people will still have antibodies. That is an open question.

Regarding false positives, depending on which test you take, there will be between 2-20% false positives, that is the problem. 

shoothoops

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #27 on: April 30, 2020, 09:27:31 AM »
Good news and bad news.

There are currently 5 vaccines in clinical trials and 71 vaccines in pre-clinical trials (end of good news). But if even one of them makes in to market in 12-18 months, it would be the quickest turnaround in history. The record for fastest vaccine is 4 years for the Mumps back in the 60s. For Ebola, a vaccine took 5 years.

Normally, a vaccine takes 8-10 years. With the amount of work being done for this one, though, 18 months may be achievable.

We don't even know what type of vaccine will work best as there are different ways of attacking it, but vaccines are a different animal than medicines. You are not trying to cure people, so in a healthy population, you don't want the vaccine to have negative consequences. Thus the human clinical trials take the longest.

Phase 1 - testing on healthy volunteers for serious side effects.

Phase 2 - smaller studies of efficacy, looking at best dosages and scheduling of dosages.

Phase 3 - large field studies. Using a control group and looking for side effects and at what dosages they occur.


So, once again, this shows the lunacy of our leader when he says we may have a vaccine in a few months. Not just lunacy, but flat out lying as he has been told different by the scientists.

One last bit of good news - medical treatments may well be available much sooner for seriously ill patients.

Yep, I saw one report that said average is 10.7 years for vaccine. And 6% of developed vaccines have been successful.

muwarrior69

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #28 on: April 30, 2020, 10:59:47 AM »
Good news and bad news.

There are currently 5 vaccines in clinical trials and 71 vaccines in pre-clinical trials (end of good news). But if even one of them makes in to market in 12-18 months, it would be the quickest turnaround in history. The record for fastest vaccine is 4 years for the Mumps back in the 60s. For Ebola, a vaccine took 5 years.

Normally, a vaccine takes 8-10 years. With the amount of work being done for this one, though, 18 months may be achievable.

We don't even know what type of vaccine will work best as there are different ways of attacking it, but vaccines are a different animal than medicines. You are not trying to cure people, so in a healthy population, you don't want the vaccine to have negative consequences. Thus the human clinical trials take the longest.

Phase 1 - testing on healthy volunteers for serious side effects.

Phase 2 - smaller studies of efficacy, looking at best dosages and scheduling of dosages.

Phase 3 - large field studies. Using a control group and looking for side effects and at what dosages they occur.


So, once again, this shows the lunacy of our leader when he says we may have a vaccine in a few months. Not just lunacy, but flat out lying as he has been told different by the scientists.

One last bit of good news - medical treatments may well be available much sooner for seriously ill patients.

This for the Mods:

Hmm... no discussion on Biden (thread locked) , but free to criticize Trump. Again what happen to no politics. A lot of the discussion is not about vaccines, but to point out that the President is obviously not a clinical scientist. Yet there're those here who think a guy who can't put 3 sentences together would handle this situation any better. Just think about that. He is the alternative.

Now I hope we can return to a sound scientific discussion
about vacines and therapies to treat this awful virus without all the political finger pointing.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #29 on: April 30, 2020, 11:12:06 AM »
Biden isn't the POTUS, and isn't making false statements about COVID on a daily basis.

tower912

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #30 on: April 30, 2020, 11:27:06 AM »
This for the Mods:

Hmm... no discussion on Biden (thread locked) , but free to criticize Trump. Again what happen to no politics. A lot of the discussion is not about vaccines, but to point out that the President is obviously not a clinical scientist. Yet there're those here who think a guy who can't put 3 sentences together would handle this situation any better. Just think about that. He is the alternative.

Now I hope we can return to a sound scientific discussion
about vacines and therapies to treat this awful virus without all the political finger pointing.
You aren't wrong, but Trump is the one in charge.    The decider.    The one where the buck stops.    And criticizing a sitting president has been a national pastime since we have had presidents.     The solution for you should be to make a cogent, fact based, no campaign talking point, case that the federal response has been timely, appropriate, and effective.     Shut up the complainers.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #31 on: April 30, 2020, 11:40:11 AM »
You aren't wrong, but Trump is the one in charge.    The decider.    The one where the buck stops.    And criticizing a sitting president has been a national pastime since we have had presidents.     The solution for you should be to make a cogent, fact based, no campaign talking point, case that the federal response has been timely, appropriate, and effective.     Shut up the complainers.

To take it a step further, if Biden was doing what our current POTUS is doing, he'd be getting criticized the same way from me. 

wadesworld

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #32 on: April 30, 2020, 11:41:39 AM »
This for the Mods:

Hmm... no discussion on Biden (thread locked) , but free to criticize Trump. Again what happen to no politics. A lot of the discussion is not about vaccines, but to point out that the President is obviously not a clinical scientist. Yet there're those here who think a guy who can't put 3 sentences together would handle this situation any better. Just think about that. He is the alternative.

Now I hope we can return to a sound scientific discussion
about vacines and therapies to treat this awful virus without all the political finger pointing.


Has drinking cleaning products proven to be effective in treating covid 19? Can we inject sunlight to attack the virus?

I assume these are the scientific discussions you’re referring to. Trump SHOULDN’T be putting three sentences together. When he does it usually has some bad consequences.
Rocket Trigger Warning (wild that saying this would trigger anyone, but it's the world we live in): Black Lives Matter

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #33 on: April 30, 2020, 11:48:14 AM »
You aren't wrong, but Trump is the one in charge.    The decider.    The one where the buck stops.    And criticizing a sitting president has been a national pastime since we have had presidents.     The solution for you should be to make a cogent, fact based, no campaign talking point, case that the federal response has been timely, appropriate, and effective.     Shut up the complainers.

There is a differnce between critcizing the president, feds, governors, mayors, etc. and the gratuitous political commentary from the likes of jockitch, tsmith, wades, Dad, and nads82.

There are plenty of left leaning posters that can accomplish the first point without resorting to the 2nd. 

Likewise, there are plenty of opposing viewpoints that also cant resist the commentary (myself included), but that has been predominantly in repsonse to the poo tossing from the above 5.


wadesworld

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #34 on: April 30, 2020, 11:54:37 AM »
There is a differnce between critcizing the president, feds, governors, mayors, etc. and the gratuitous political commentary from the likes of jockitch, tsmith, wades, Dad, and nads82.

There are plenty of left leaning posters that can accomplish the first point without resorting to the 2nd. 

Likewise, there are plenty of opposing viewpoints that also cant resist the commentary (myself included), but that has been predominantly in repsonse to the poo tossing from the above 5.

Lol you sound like the Cubs fans in the MLB thread a couple years ago. “These guys made me do it!”

PS I’m just passing along what’s been suggested by our “leader.” Not sure why you support him if my posts FORCE you to post so out of character for yourself.

 ::)
Rocket Trigger Warning (wild that saying this would trigger anyone, but it's the world we live in): Black Lives Matter

Jockey

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #35 on: April 30, 2020, 12:28:12 PM »
This for the Mods:

Hmm... no discussion on Biden (thread locked) , but free to criticize Trump. Again what happen to no politics. A lot of the discussion is not about vaccines, but to point out that the President is obviously not a clinical scientist. Yet there're those here who think a guy who can't put 3 sentences together would handle this situation any better. Just think about that. He is the alternative.

Now I hope we can return to a sound scientific discussion
about vacines and therapies to treat this awful virus without all the political finger pointing.

How is Biden involved with Covid? When he is, I will have either praise or criticism of the job he does.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #36 on: April 30, 2020, 12:58:21 PM »
There is a differnce between critcizing the president, feds, governors, mayors, etc. and the gratuitous political commentary from the likes of jockitch, tsmith, wades, Dad, and nads82.

There are plenty of left leaning posters that can accomplish the first point without resorting to the 2nd. 

Likewise, there are plenty of opposing viewpoints that also cant resist the commentary (myself included), but that has been predominantly in repsonse to the poo tossing from the above 5.
You know what you could do? You could try to refute what you see as gratuitous political commentary instead of crying like a child. You could make an argument as to why the response to the pandemic has been good, point out all the wonderful things that have been done, make some suggestions on what could be done in the future.

Heck, you could even add to the thread by pointing out research and other developments that are occurring, trends that are showing up, or how you see it playing out as states re-open. But instead of doing that 99% of your posts alternate between content free snips and whining to the mods. Instead of being a complete snowflake, maybe try contributing something and stop sobbing about those that do.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #37 on: April 30, 2020, 01:34:42 PM »
Alternatively, we could probably all be a bit better here.

What is frustrating is reading a generally well thought out post... and then there is one or two lines that are just not necessary, and will probably fan the flames.  Of course, I'm guilty of this as well.  I'm going to work on it... so maybe we all should.  It would make this place a bit less toxic.

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #38 on: April 30, 2020, 01:52:33 PM »
You know what you could do? You could try to refute what you see as gratuitous political commentary instead of crying like a child. You could make an argument as to why the response to the pandemic has been good, point out all the wonderful things that have been done, make some suggestions on what could be done in the future.

Heck, you could even add to the thread by pointing out research and other developments that are occurring, trends that are showing up, or how you see it playing out as states re-open. But instead of doing that 99% of your posts alternate between content free snips and whining to the mods. Instead of being a complete snowflake, maybe try contributing something and stop sobbing about those that do.

You can also pm your daily koz talking points to your pals too and respect rocky and topper's request to keep the politics out.

But personal accountability and self control is something you clearly lack.

wadesworld

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #39 on: April 30, 2020, 02:47:00 PM »
You can also pm your daily koz talking points to your pals too and respect rocky and topper's request to keep the politics out.

But personal accountability and self control is something you clearly lack.

Says the guy blaming his posting habits on other posters.
Rocket Trigger Warning (wild that saying this would trigger anyone, but it's the world we live in): Black Lives Matter

pbiflyer

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #40 on: April 30, 2020, 02:59:40 PM »
Back on topic, some potential good news.

South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'
https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-says-recovered-coronavirus-133600512.html

Experts in South Korea said that recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again were not reinfected and that their virus was not reactivated, as was previously feared.

tower912

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #41 on: April 30, 2020, 03:54:34 PM »
To take it a step further, if Biden was doing what our current POTUS is doing, he'd be getting criticized the same way from me.
I am right there with you.   I salute Hogan and Dewine.   I may not vote for them, but when safe again I would like to shake their hand.   And if I were less than enthralled with their opponent, I would reward their leadership with my vote.    I am a bleeding heart, but a pragmatic one and I appreciate leadership.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2020, 03:58:56 PM by tower912 »
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #42 on: April 30, 2020, 04:06:40 PM »

Back on topic, some potential good news.

South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'
https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-says-recovered-coronavirus-133600512.html

Experts in South Korea said that recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again were not reinfected and that their virus was not reactivated, as was previously feared.

.

That is incredibly good news if it holds true. If patients could recover and then relapse, this could turn from a global catastrophe to a Sci-Fi movie that ends with a scorched earth....

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #43 on: April 30, 2020, 04:35:14 PM »
I am right there with you.   I salute Hogan and Dewine.   I may not vote for them, but when safe again I would like to shake their hand.   And if I were less than enthralled with their opponent, I would reward their leadership with my vote.    I am a bleeding heart, but a pragmatic one and I appreciate leadership.

I was reading today that Gov Hogan was keeping the tests he bought from South Korea under armed guard because he didn't want Trump trying to steal from the states again.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #44 on: April 30, 2020, 04:54:25 PM »

I am right there with you.   I salute Hogan and Dewine.   I may not vote for them, but when safe again I would like to shake their hand.   And if I were less than enthralled with their opponent, I would reward their leadership with my vote.    I am a bleeding heart, but a pragmatic one and I appreciate leadership.



Very well said.

Republicans like Hogan and Dewine deserve huge props for listening to experts and protecting their citizens at the risk of becoming pariahs to POTUS and their party. I applaud their leadership.

Likewise, I will criticize Trump as long as he continues to do more harm than good with his lies, mixed messages, misguided recommendations and constant self-aggrandizement.

This is not political. It is the biggest national and international threat in generations.

jesmu84

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #45 on: April 30, 2020, 05:29:47 PM »
I was reading today that Gov Hogan was keeping the tests he bought from South Korea under armed guard because he didn't want Trump trying to steal from the states again.

https://twitter.com/kathrynw5/status/1255922620832329729?s=19

Pakuni

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #46 on: May 05, 2020, 08:43:04 AM »
 Yashar Ali 🐘 @yashar
NEWS: Pfizer and German pharmaceutical company BioNTech announced that their potential coronavirus vaccine began human trials in the United States on Monday. If tests are successful, the vaccine could be ready for emergency use here as early as September nytimes.com/2020/05/05/hea…

Hards Alumni

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #47 on: May 05, 2020, 08:51:24 AM »
Yashar Ali 🐘 @yashar
NEWS: Pfizer and German pharmaceutical company BioNTech announced that their potential coronavirus vaccine began human trials in the United States on Monday. If tests are successful, the vaccine could be ready for emergency use here as early as September nytimes.com/2020/05/05/hea…

That is insanely fast.  Hope everything works out with it and its safe, effective, and scalable.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #48 on: May 05, 2020, 09:13:01 AM »
That is insanely fast.  Hope everything works out with it and its safe, effective, and scalable.


It is fast, but it might be helpful to clarify for those who aren't familiar with emergency use authorizations: a drug approved under an EUA has not gone through the same level to testing for safety and effectiveness as a normal approved drug. That means while it might be available via the emergency use, we almost certainly won't know by September how safe or effective the vaccine really is.

It's also worth noting that drugs approved under EUAs are typically those for people who already have the disease in question; kind of a last resort for someone desperately ill. Think remdesovir, where people are already in the ICU with grave symptoms, and are willing to try a drug that hasn't been fully vetted for safety and effectiveness.

Given that distinction, I have to seriously wonder whether people would really even use a vaccine under approved under an EUA. Low-risk populations might very well just say "I'll take my chances," while higher-risk populations might very well just say "I'll just stay home." Bottom line: I have serious reservations about whether we could get enough people to take a vaccine approved under an EUA to achieve herd immunity. IMHO, we are going to need a vaccine approved only after the normal level of FDA safety and effectiveness testing, or we won't get enough people who are willing to take it.

Jockey

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Re: Vaccine/Antibody updates
« Reply #49 on: May 05, 2020, 10:05:13 AM »
Yashar Ali 🐘 @yashar
NEWS: Pfizer and German pharmaceutical company BioNTech announced that their potential coronavirus vaccine began human trials in the United States on Monday. If tests are successful, the vaccine could be ready for emergency use here as early as September nytimes.com/2020/05/05/hea…

They are giving the crazed anti-vaxxers a lot of ammo if the vaccine are on the market by September. No vaccine has ever been approved without extensive human trials.


 

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