Vaccine/Antibody updates

[cheebs09]

My favorite Trump ones were him calling Nepal, "Nipple," and Bhutan, "Button,".

Don't forget key executives Tim Apple and Marillyn Lockheed.

With so many speaking opportunities, and eye balls, people are going to make mistakes and others will jump on them. I don't know that it's the biggest thing to get worked up about.

[cheebs09]

If by the end of May you're an able bodied adult who willingly chose not to get one of the vaccines then any illness or death that comes from it is something they'll need to reconcile with.  You can lead a horse to water.....

Come June 1 every state should announce they're back to a full reopening, any delay beyond that is nothing more then gubmint trying to keep their boots on the throats of us little guys.

I agree. I guess the only thing is are we expecting people to be fully vaccinated by May 31? Or we will just have enough doses? My guess is from a logistics perspective the full vaccination might still go into June or July.

[Spotcheck Billy]

My favorite Trump ones were him calling Nepal, "Nipple," and Bhutan, "Button,".

I still like Covfefe

[tower912]

I like 'I won'.

[Galway Eagle]

I don't understand why we can't acknowledge neither is exactly a gaff free genius. I prefer Biden, but his history filled with senile moments. So is Trump's so it's pointless to bring it up acting like your guy never had them (4ever)

[MU82]

She tried to spin her way out of it but it's obvious to anyone without a 100% partisan view to the timeline of that partnership.

You've been trying to spin your way out of holding 45 accountable for nearly a year now. It's obvious to anyone without a 100% partisan view that his response to the pandemic was actually worse than mere failure, as he personally contributed to Americans dying and getting severely ill.

[GooooMarquette]

If by the end of May you're an able bodied adult who willingly chose not to get one of the vaccines then any illness or death that comes from it is something they'll need to reconcile with.  You can lead a horse to water.....

Come June 1 every state should announce they're back to a full reopening, any delay beyond that is nothing more then gubmint trying to keep their boots on the throats of us little guys.

That would be great, except for two things:

1. This doesn't account for the fact that kids under 16 still can't be vaccinated, so it will likely take several more months to get them vaccinated. (And yes I understand that they generally don't get severe disease, but we down to point number two before you jump to unwarranted conclusions); and

2. Continued spread of the virus (whether among kids or among adults who have chosen not to get vaccinated) can lead to vaccine-resistant variants. And if they keep evolving, some of those variants could come back to infect and possibly kill those of us who will choose to get the vaccine when we can.

As a result, it is an overly simplistic (and scientifically unsupported) view to assume that any risk after June 1 will applies only to adults who have voluntarily chosen not to get vaccinated.

[SERocks]

I am definitely not a Trump guy, but I think he deserves some credit for clearing the way so that companies could fast track these vaccines.  That said, I am surprised at the number of people that say they won't take the vaccine because it wasn't tested enough or some other skeptical reason.  Most of them seem to be Trumpers.  So one of the good things Trump does is being ignored by his followers and worse, lies are being spread about the vaccines. 

Can someone explain that to me?  I just don't get Trumpers I guess. 

[tower912]

Trump was vaccinated in secret before he left the White House.   His VP got a public vaccination.  Other politicians got vaccinated publicly.

Trump got it secretly so as not to disturb the narrative of his base.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I am definitely not a Trump guy, but I think he deserves some credit for clearing the way so that companies could fast track these vaccines.  That said, I am surprised at the number of people that say they won't take the vaccine because it wasn't tested enough or some other skeptical reason.  Most of them seem to be Trumpers.  So one of the good things Trump does is being ignored by his followers and worse, lies are being spread about the vaccines. 

Can someone explain that to me?  I just don't get Trumpers I guess.

Two efforts in particular that occurred in his administration...
- NIH designed the Moderna vaccine within days of the sequencing of the virus.  Moderna is just the contract mfg/partner for a GOVT designed vaccine.  They made a big bet on targeting the spike.  It's a fascinating story.
- Accelerating the testing protocols was really well done.  Plus the studies were designed really well with Pfizer and Moderna  (and now J&J).  Just seeing the alternative muddiness with AZ/Oxford shows this was executed well.

The thing that nags at me with OWS is that the whole idea wasn't to accelerate the science (that was done)....it was to lower the risk/cost of failure in trial, speed the approval process and speed production.  I think they succeeded in 1 & 2...I really think the joint military and health expert effort on production seemed lacking.  Why doesn't JNJ have 30M doses by now (made up number) if we guaranteed dose purchases?  Finally, ignoring the dose in arm aspect of the process could have definitely been better--you cant just drop things off at shipment. 

[Hards Alumni]

I am definitely not a Trump guy, but I think he deserves some credit for clearing the way so that companies could fast track these vaccines.  That said, I am surprised at the number of people that say they won't take the vaccine because it wasn't tested enough or some other skeptical reason.  Most of them seem to be Trumpers.  So one of the good things Trump does is being ignored by his followers and worse, lies are being spread about the vaccines. 

Can someone explain that to me?  I just don't get Trumpers I guess.

People are stupid, and stubborn.  And for me, it isn't just Trumpers that are refusing the vaccine, there are a bunch of people who I know personally who are not getting it.  And they're stupid.  They're the same people who smoke and then try to tell me they only eat organic food because 'food is filled with chemicals'.  They tell me GMO food is all bad and made in a lab.  They're the same people who stare at the stars and believe in astrology and crystals.  They're s same people who wear gloves all day long... even after I've explained that they only need to wash their hands and use hand sanitizer when they can't wash.  They're kooks.  They barely have their lives together, and believe what they hear in their echo chambers.  And they're definitely not all Trumpers.

Social media has absolutely led us down this path.

[pacearrow02]

That would be great, except for two things:

1. This doesn't account for the fact that kids under 16 still can't be vaccinated, so it will likely take several more months to get them vaccinated. (And yes I understand that they generally don't get severe disease, but we down to point number two before you jump to unwarranted conclusions); and

2. Continued spread of the virus (whether among kids or among adults who have chosen not to get vaccinated) can lead to vaccine-resistant variants. And if they keep evolving, some of those variants could come back to infect and possibly kill those of us who will choose to get the vaccine when we can.

As a result, it is an overly simplistic (and scientifically unsupported) view to assume that any risk after June 1 will applies only to adults who have voluntarily chosen not to get vaccinated.

The idea of returning to normal cannot be viewed through the sole lens of Covid science.  The science of mental health needs to be weighed as well and plenty of documentation shows those mental health risks will outweigh the risks you laid out above come June 1. 

There is no risk free return to normal but imo come summer it's time.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Kinda hilarious that Ziggy tells people to "put up or shut up" and then just disappears when people actually accept his challenge.

Some people sleep and actually work, but yeah, I disappeared. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

My favorite Trump ones were him calling Nepal, "Nipple," and Bhutan, "Button,".

Thighland. And when he made up the country of Nambia.

[The Sultan]

heh

https://twitter.com/JuliaLMarcus/status/1367159066531880961?s=20

[GooooMarquette]

The idea of returning to normal cannot be viewed through the sole lens of Covid science.  The science of mental health needs to be weighed as well and plenty of documentation shows those mental health risks will outweigh the risks you laid out above come June 1. 

There is no risk free return to normal but imo come summer it's time.

True. But you called for a "full reopening" in "every state." That's pretty absolute for someone who wants to weigh Covid science against mental health.

I would submit that if you truly want to balance Covid science and mental health, you will likely come to an answer somewhere in between. Maybe some states can reopen everything completely. Or maybe the best balance would include mask mandates for indoor gatherings above a certain threshold, but no masks outside.

We never totally shut things down because of Covid; I would submit that while Covid is still widely circulating and mutating, and before most kids get vaccinated, we probably shouldn't totally open them up either.

[MUfan12]

heh

https://twitter.com/JuliaLMarcus/status/1367159066531880961?s=20

Not what I had in mind when they said the shot might cause swelling.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

heh

https://twitter.com/JuliaLMarcus/status/1367159066531880961?s=20

Twitter reply: Nice Johnson (& Johnson)

[pacearrow02]

True. But you called for a "full reopening" in "every state." That's pretty absolute for someone who wants to weigh Covid science against mental health.

I would submit that if you truly want to balance Covid science and mental health, you will likely come to an answer somewhere in between. Maybe some states can reopen everything completely. Or maybe the best balance would include mask mandates for indoor gatherings above a certain threshold, but no masks outside.

We never totally shut things down because of Covid; I would submit that while Covid is still widely circulating and mutating, and before most kids get vaccinated, we probably shouldn't totally open them up either.

Ya my my full throated support of a complete reopening might have been a little reactionary to all the hood news of the week.  I think mask requirements are good for awhile yet especially if that means gathering restrictions are lifted.

[JWags85]

People are stupid, and stubborn.  And for me, it isn't just Trumpers that are refusing the vaccine, there are a bunch of people who I know personally who are not getting it.  And they're stupid.  They're the same people who smoke and then try to tell me they only eat organic food because 'food is filled with chemicals'.  They tell me GMO food is all bad and made in a lab.  They're the same people who stare at the stars and believe in astrology and crystals.  They're s same people who wear gloves all day long... even after I've explained that they only need to wash their hands and use hand sanitizer when they can't wash.  They're kooks.  They barely have their lives together, and believe what they hear in their echo chambers.  And they're definitely not all Trumpers.

Social media has absolutely led us down this path.

For sure. Hell the majority of "anti-vaxxers" I've encountered are super liberal looney tunes who have very little in common philosophically with Trumpers. Idiots come in all forms and ideologies

[Galway Eagle]

For sure. Hell the majority of "anti-vaxxers" I've encountered are super liberal looney tunes who have very little in common philosophically with Trumpers. Idiots come in all forms and ideologies

+1 they're either super religious right or super hippie far left au natural in my experience

[rocky_warrior]

+1 they're either super religious right or super hippie far left au natural in my experience

This is a nice story, and we all know the types. But it doesn't match up with the actual numbers.
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-february-2021/

The Monitor also reports changes in vaccine enthusiasm across partisans, with large gaps in enthusiasm remaining between groups. Between December and February, there was a large increase in the share of Democrats who report being vaccinated or wanting to do so as soon as possible (from 47% to 75%) and a more modest increase among Republicans (from 28% to 41%). A substantial share of Republicans remain more resistant to getting vaccinated, with 28% saying they will "definitely not" get the shot.

FWIW Definitely not Dems are at 2% and Independents at 18% .

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Here's a weird one: I was talking with a physician's assistant today, and during the course of the conversation I sensed she was concerned about the vaccine.

me: So you are thinking about not getting the vaccine?
her: I'm not sure yet
me: why is that?
her: Because 7 of the 10 people I know that got the vaccine got Bell's Palsy

i wasn't quite sure how to respond to that one so I just sort of floated on to a different discussion...

[GooooMarquette]

Here's a weird one: I was talking with a physician's assistant today, and during the course of the conversation I sensed she was concerned about the vaccine.

me: So you are thinking about not getting the vaccine?
her: I'm not sure yet
me: why is that?
her: Because 7 of the 10 people I know that got the vaccine got Bell's Palsy

i wasn't quite sure how to respond to that one so I just sort of floated on to a different discussion...

Interesting. According to CDC, Bell's Palsy does not occur after the vaccine at a rate any higher than just expected in the normal course of events.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/underlying-conditions.html

Cases of Bell's palsy were reported in participants in the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials. However, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) does not consider these to be above the rate expected in the general population.

Since the 'normal' annual incidence in the US is estimated to be 15-30 per 100,000, your PA seems to know a pretty atypical group of people.

[forgetful]

Two efforts in particular that occurred in his administration...
- NIH designed the Moderna vaccine within days of the sequencing of the virus.  Moderna is just the contract mfg/partner for a GOVT designed vaccine.  They made a big bet on targeting the spike.  It's a fascinating story.
- Accelerating the testing protocols was really well done.  Plus the studies were designed really well with Pfizer and Moderna  (and now J&J).  Just seeing the alternative muddiness with AZ/Oxford shows this was executed well.

The thing that nags at me with OWS is that the whole idea wasn't to accelerate the science (that was done)....it was to lower the risk/cost of failure in trial, speed the approval process and speed production.  I think they succeeded in 1 & 2...I really think the joint military and health expert effort on production seemed lacking.  Why doesn't JNJ have 30M doses by now (made up number) if we guaranteed dose purchases?  Finally, ignoring the dose in arm aspect of the process could have definitely been better--you cant just drop things off at shipment.

The bolded aren't entirely true. Curious as to the source of that. The mRNA vaccines were based on about 17 years of data studying SARS and MERS vaccines. They already knew the optimal part of the Spike protein, and which adjuvants would lead to strong and proper immune responses. It really was not a big bet targeting the RBD domain of the Spike protein, which is why pretty much everyone did the same. They did so, because of 17 years of research including clinical trials of both SARS and MERS candidates (this is also why the timeline was so much faster). But yes, technically the NIH designed the mRNA construct that Moderna used, but honestly that was the easy part. Its something your average molecular biologist can do on their own...the formulation/packaging of that mRNA is more challenging (that was the big role of Moderna and BioNtech).

And Moderna is much more than a "contract" partner. They have been actively working on a MERS vaccine for a couple years, and developed these mRNA platforms. It was partnered with the US government as part of an original focus on new vaccine technology under Bush, and expanded under Obama, but to call it a GOVT designed vaccine, is a bit inaccurate. I've said it on here before, but if you really want to give a president credit for the vaccines, that should go to Bush.

The big place where the former administration did things right, was what you mention in the 2nd (non-bolded) paragraph. They ensured that the costs of the trials would be covered by guaranteed purchases. That let the pharmaceutical companies take the risk of concurrent phase 1/2 trials, and accelerated transition into phase 3.