Michigan

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Not sure if this was posted but a good summary of the surge. 

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/04/many-of-michigans-thumb-residents-are-done-with-covid-19-pandemic-even-as-virus-rages-like-wildfire.html

[Jockey]

Probably an interesting article.

[tower912]

COVID fatigue, skepticism, politics.   Nothing new.

[GooooMarquette]

Here is a non-subscription article that seems to say similar things:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/11/politics/covid-michigan-surge-gretchen-whitmer/index.html

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Sorry on Twitter it wasn't restricted.  Here is the not direct link. 

https://twitter.com/adriannemerk/status/1380990218019467265?s=21

[pacearrow02]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1381674358402383874

Doing great here.  Good for Gretch in trying to get more vaccine with hopes of getting things back under control.

Biden's team response: pound sand Michigan and go back inside. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Because giving Michigan more vaccine doesn't help in the short term.  That wouldn't show impact for a month.

For them to slow the spread now, they need to clamp down.  So Biden's team is right about that.

[pacearrow02]

Because giving Michigan more vaccine doesn't help in the short term.  That wouldn't show impact for a month.

For them to slow the spread now, they need to clamp down.  So Biden's team is right about that.

Is there not almost immediate benefit after getting even the first dose?  Obviously full efficacy is down the road after 2nd shot, maybe a little bit of both strategy?

[GooooMarquette]

Because giving Michigan more vaccine doesn't help in the short term.  That wouldn't show impact for a month.

For them to slow the spread now, they need to clamp down.  So Biden's team is right about that.

Yep. It's a shame she isn't following the CDC recommendation and shutting some things down. We are also approaching the point where a partial lockdown may be advisable in a few other places, like MN, IL and a couple of places in the northeast.

I know the counterarguments - the US population doesn't have the patience or willpower. But the fact that the numbers keep bouncing back up - even with the vaccine rollout - might be a hint that the 'half measures' strategy isn't working.

[GooooMarquette]

Is there not almost immediate benefit after getting even the first dose?  Obviously full efficacy is down the road after 2nd shot, maybe a little bit of both strategy?

No, there is not evidence of an 'immediate benefit'. The efficacy occurs a week or two after the first dose. And then the decline in cases occurs a couple of weeks after that. So case declines just begin after 3-4 weeks.

With a shutdown, the 'efficacy' (reduction in contacts) occurs immediately. Then case declines occur a couple of weeks after that. So case declines begin in 1-2 weeks.

[pacearrow02]

No, there is not evidence of an 'immediate benefit'. The efficacy occurs a week or two after the first dose. And then the decline in cases occurs a couple of weeks after that. So case declines just begin after 3-4 weeks.

With a shutdown, the 'efficacy' (reduction in contacts) occurs immediately. Then case declines occur a couple of weeks after that. So case declines begin in 1-2 weeks.

https://mobile.twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1381638489972871168

I'll side with my boy Gottlieb.  But what does he know as former director of the FDA?!?!?

[GooooMarquette]

https://mobile.twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1381638489972871168

I'll side with my boy Gottlieb.  But what does he know as former director of the FDA?!?!?

I was simply responding to your question about 'immediate benefit' with vaccines. And I answered it correctly.

I can see the case for increasing vaccines to Michigan (and other states that are seeing cases increase significantly), but it has to be in conjunction with partial shutdowns if we want to have anything close to the 'immediate' effect you referred to earlier.

[pacearrow02]

I was simply responding to your question about 'immediate benefit' with vaccines. And I answered it correctly.

I can see the case for increasing vaccines to Michigan (and other states that are seeing cases increase significantly), but it has to be in conjunction with partial shutdowns if we want to have anything close to the 'immediate' effect you referred to earlier.

So both state of Michigan elected officials and our Federal elected officials are messing this up.  I'll bookend this with the same comment I started with.  Doing great here guys!!

[GooooMarquette]

So both state of Michigan elected officials and our Federal elected officials are messing this up.  I'll bookend this with the same comment I started with.  Doing great here guys!!

Yes. I'll bookend this with the comment I have been making for a while - Michigan should implement a partial lockdown.

You aren't the only one who has disagreed with their approach.

[pacearrow02]

Yes. I'll bookend this with the comment I have been making for a while - Michigan should implement a partial lockdown.

You aren't the only one who has disagreed with their approach.

👍👍

[tower912]

The legislature passed a bill that the governor hasn't signed.   In it are guidelines for shutting things down and limiting restaurant capacity relative to the COVID positivity rate.   By the Republican legislature's standards, it is time to reduce restaurant capacities and mask up.   I am disappointed that the governor didn't sign it.

[Jockey]

The legislature passed a bill that the governor hasn't signed.   In it are guidelines for shutting things down and limiting restaurant capacity relative to the COVID positivity rate.   By the Republican legislature's standards, it is time to reduce restaurant capacities and mask up.   I am disappointed that the governor didn't sign it.

I'm guessing you get a bit gun shy when the other side wants to murder you.

[GooooMarquette]

The legislature passed a bill that the governor hasn't signed.   In it are guidelines for shutting things down and limiting restaurant capacity relative to the COVID positivity rate.   By the Republican legislature's standards, it is time to reduce restaurant capacities and mask up.   I am disappointed that the governor didn't sign it.

That really is disappointing.

[mu_hilltopper]

There is an immediate benefit to getting dose 1.   Reports peg it at 80% effective after three weeks.  But .. it's not 0% effective at 20 days, then 80% the next day.  It ramps up.

I will bet a bag of Arby's that within 3 days of getting dose 1, it's 20% effective and 40% effective at keeping you out of the hospital.     If you got exposed on day 4, your body is already humming along, you've got a 4 day jump start.  That would keep a ton of people out of the hospital.

I'm not making those numbers up out of thin air, I've stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before.

[rocky_warrior]

There is an immediate benefit to getting dose 1.   Reports peg it at 80% effective after three weeks.  But .. it's not 0% effective at 20 days, then 80% the next day.  It ramps up.

I will bet a bag of Arby's that within 3 days of getting dose 1, it's 20% effective and 40% effective at keeping you out of the hospital.     If you got exposed on day 4, your body is already humming along, you've got a 4 day jump start.  That would keep a ton of people out of the hospital.

I'm not making those numbers up out of thin air, I've stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before.

Now, for actual science, approximately day 10 appears to where the body (across many participants) has good protection.  Before that...eh, gamble.

[GooooMarquette]

There is an immediate benefit to getting dose 1.   Reports peg it at 80% effective after three weeks.  But .. it's not 0% effective at 20 days, then 80% the next day.  It ramps up.

I will bet a bag of Arby's that within 3 days of getting dose 1, it's 20% effective and 40% effective at keeping you out of the hospital.     If you got exposed on day 4, your body is already humming along, you've got a 4 day jump start.  That would keep a ton of people out of the hospital.

I'm not making those numbers up out of thin air, I've stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before.

There is protection after one dose, but the response is neither 'immediate' nor linear.

Studies on the Pfizer vaccine showed that infection rates after the first dose were similar between the vaccine and placebo groups for the first 10-12 days, then tapered off significantly for the vaccine group. Further study showed that this immunity roughly paralleled the development of T-cells that reacted to the SARS-CoV2 spike protein. The following link describes research conducted by Duke and the National University of Singapore.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/local-researchers-find-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-can-produce-antibodies-immune-cells-12-days

Researchers here have found that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine can help the body to produce specific types of antibodies and immune cells against the Sars-CoV-2 virus, which may explain why it is able to offer protection from Covid-19 as early as 12 days after a single dose.

[rocky_warrior]

the first 10-12 days

Beat you by a second!

[GooooMarquette]

Dang! Rocky's post beat mine by one second. Guess that shows why he's a mod and I'm not....

[Galway Eagle]

Dang! Rocky's post beat mine by one second. Guess that shows why he's a mod and I'm not....

Maybe he MODified it to look like that 

[GooooMarquette]

Maybe he MODified it to look like that 

Yeah, that's the ticket!