COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Hards Alumni]

Milions?? In the US?? Highly doubtful when we are only at 1000ish right now. I mean, honestly, do you think you're going to live forever?? Did you think no one was going to die from this?? Do you think people aren't going to die from cancer, or the flu, or suicide, or natural causes?? The fact that people all of a sudden seem to think that baffles me.

Of course it baffles you.  You're simple.  Under your logic, we shouldn't bother spending money or do anything to prevent those diseases. 

So what you don't understand is that the 1000 people that are dead in the US were sick for the last two weeks.  So there is a big lead time on this virus.  People who are getting sick TODAY are going to be the ones laying in bed in a week or so, and some will die.  And when all of those hospital beds are full, even more will die.  Go look at the graphs of number of sick, and then figure out how many beds and ventilators we have in the US available in total(its about 100k).

If you want to preach about how some old people will die, understand that you're probably one of the old people at this point.  I don't know your age, but I'm going to guess you're at least over 50... and I'd wager closer to 60.  If you think this isn't a big deal, please go to your nearest hospital and ask to volunteer.  You strike me as the type of person that doesn't believe something until they experience it first hand.  So I encourage you to step up, and watch the old people die, and put yourself on the front lines.  Just like you're' asking others to do, and since it isn't such a big deal.

[warriorchick]

I think the scariest number in the US is this:

Recovered: 394
Dead: 1027

That means only 28% of resolved cases resulted in survival. Worldwide 16% of all resolved cases resulted in death.

Pretty sure it takes longer for someone to be declared "resolved" than it does to be declared "dead".

Bet you $1 that this ratio will be more favorable a month from now.

[Johnny B]

Pretty sure it takes longer for someone to be declared "resolved" than it does to be declared "dead".

Bet you $1 that this ratio will be more favorable a month from now.

Also countless people will never even realize they had it or wont get tested

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Pretty sure it takes longer for someone to be declared "resolved" than it does to be declared "dead".

Bet you $1 that this ratio will be more favorable a month from now.

As long as we dont completely overwhelm the HC system it will definitely be closer to 50/50 or better on critical cases and much better overall.  It's stunning that the 'first' ICU patient in Italy just got out of the hospital last week.  Cycle time on recovery is so much longer than cycle time on getting someone to critical status from contraction. 

[Hards Alumni]

As long as we dont completely overwhelm the HC system it will definitely be closer to 50/50 or better on critical cases and much better overall.  It's stunning that the 'first' ICU patient in Italy just got out of the hospital last week.  Cycle time on recovery is so much longer than cycle time on getting someone to critical status from contraction.

Plus I think that our leadership has done a really poor job of communicating this.  You don't go in and come out a day or two later all better.  You come out weeks later, with permanent damage to your lungs.  That is, if you come out.

[Johnny B]

Milions?? In the US?? Highly doubtful when we are only at 1000ish right now. I mean, honestly, do you think you're going to live forever?? Did you think no one was going to die from this?? Do you think people aren't going to die from cancer, or the flu, or suicide, or natural causes?? The fact that people all of a sudden seem to think that baffles me.

Jerry fallwell jr?

[mu_hilltopper]

An article from 2013 .. nailed it.

https://www.wired.com/2013/10/bats-next-sars-pandemic/

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Ah.

So you're one of those who won't think this is a big deal until millions are dead.

But at the same time the steps being taken are to prevent exactly those types of numbers. So that when millions don't die, you'll think it was all an overreaction

I am absolutely convinced that this is what will happen. "See?  What was the big deal?  I told you it was all a hoax", completely ignoring that the social distancing and stay-at-home orders are what kept the numbers lower.  Wait for it.

[injuryBug]

An article from 2013 .. nailed it.

https://www.wired.com/2013/10/bats-next-sars-pandemic/

So we should have been looking for a vaccine since then

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

So we should have been looking for a vaccine since then

You need a specific virus before you can create a vaccine.  You just can't create a vaccine for all corornaviruses and expect it to be anywhere near effective.

[Hards Alumni]

So we should have been looking for a vaccine since then

Not how that works.

[skianth16]

I am absolutely convinced that this is what will happen. "See?  What was the big deal?  I told you it was all a hoax", completely ignoring that the social distancing and stay-at-home orders are what kept the numbers lower.  Wait for it.

That was kind of the point Dr. Landon from the University of Chicago made last week. If done right, this should feel like it never was that big of a deal. We all have the opportunity to influence just how big of a deal this becomes. I'm sure many have seen her speech, but for anyone who hasn't, here's a link. The paragraph below sums up this idea pretty well.

"These extreme restrictions may seem, in the end, a little anticlimactic. Because it's really hard to feel like you're saving the world when you're watching Netflix from your couch. But if we do this right, nothing happens. Yeah. A successful shelter in place means that you're going to feel like it was all for nothing. And you'd be right. Because nothing means that nothing happened to your family. And that's what we're going for here."

https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/emily-landon-speaks-about-covid-19-at-illinois-governors-press-conference

[shoothoops]

Maybe they ignored the 2016 document because there was a more recent document? Did you read the whole article?

"An NSC official confirmed the existence of the playbook but dismissed its value. "We are aware of the document, although it's quite dated and has been superseded by strategic and operational biodefense policies published since," the official said."

Now, it's possible that the 2016 plan was better and the newer plan has led to the slow federal response. But the headline and the quote posted are pretty misleading.

I did. I read every link I post. Here is a different piece that goes over the pandemic exercise transition trainings the Obama admin did with Trump's team. Two things: 1) 66% of Trump's team is no longer there The high first term turnover doesn't help. 2) Trump's team has been said to be disinterested in the topic.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/trump-appointees-trained-pandemic-response-in-2016-2020-3%3famp

[Eldon]

[forgetful]

Pretty sure it takes longer for someone to be declared "resolved" than it does to be declared "dead".

Bet you $1 that this ratio will be more favorable a month from now.

I agree the ratio will be more favorable, in part because of what you say. It takes on average about 28 days to recover, but death occurs on average in 14 days. That is skewing the numbers, but we likely are still looking at a 30-40% death rate amongst resolved cases right now. That will likely also decline as we get more asymptomatic positives by increased testing. But even then the numbers are still scary.

Also, many of the ER docs I know say they have been seeing an increase in the number of pneumonia deaths lately, in people that test negative for flu, respiratory viruses (not COVID-19), and others. But couldn't get tested for COVID. So our death numbers are likely significantly low.

[Spotcheck Billy]

PornHub is the only reliable news source.

free premium access during these tough times

[skianth16]

I did. I read every link I post. Here is a different piece that goes over the pandemic exercise transition trainings the Obama admin did with Trump's team. Two things: 1) 66% of Trump's team is no longer there The high first term turnover doesn't help. 2) Trump's team has been said to be disinterested in the topic.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/trump-appointees-trained-pandemic-response-in-2016-2020-3%3famp

The quote you posted from the last article was directly addressed and explained later in the article. Why ignore that part of it?

As to Trump's team being disinterested, the BI article mentions 2 people who are said to have questioned why they needed to be there. The article says "most of the Trump administration officials paid attention." So were some disinterested? Sure, according to all the anonymous staffers from the prior administration that happens to be very much at odds with the current administration. Does that mean the whole team was disinterested? I'm not sure I'd share the same conclusion. Plus, the claims that people weren't interested were refuted by spokesmen from the current administration.

Overall, I question Business Insider's quality. Too much of their stuff reads like a tabloid. This article in particular fits that model. Some of their stuff is good, but too much of it is click-baity. The Politico article that whole BI article is based off was much better.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797

[Coleman]

This isn't directed solely at you Tony because it's many many many people nationwide that have been hsouting "people are dying" from the rooftops. To hear some of them talk, it's like they expected NO ONE to die from this...like ZERO. That was absolutely impossible, and completely unrealistic. Is it sad?? Of course it is, but it's also a reality. People die, all of us. Reasons we die are various, but it WILL happen to everyone eventually. What really bothers me the most is people are lamenting the number of deaths like they are 100% preventable...sadly, they aren't. How come people aren't outraged and blaming leadership when the many many thousands of people a year die from the flu, or any other number of reasons?? Under those circumstances, it seems people just "accept" it that it happens. Tragic and sad, but that it does happen.

Now as far as older people sacrificing for the economy..I'm not necessarily saying they should...but again, the reality is, older people are going to die, right?? Let's say Grandma is 90, her health has been failing for awhile...now sadly she gets Covid-19 and passes away from it. Realistically, how much longer was she going to live, and what was her quality of life going to be?? Death is inevitable. But for some reason people are acting like it shouldn't be during this pandemic. I really don't get it. Meanwhile, thousands of people are dying everyday from reasons completely unrelated to this, and of course it's still sad either way, but if they die from Covid-19 now all of a sudden it's leaderships fault and someone "murdered" them. But if it's from the flu...it's just a tragic, sad thing but acceptance that it happens to everyone. I don't get it. Well I do, but I don't actually want to believe people are like that. But they are.

I mean...last i saw there has been less than 1,000 deaths in the US. Percentage wise, that is incredibly low..like minuscule. yet people are acting like the entire population is dying off from this. It's all about agenda's, that's all it really is.

Ask yourself this...have you ever known any parents or grandparents that at some point haven't said that they have wanted a better future for their kids or grand kids?? I can tell you this(and maybe it's just me) but if I'm in my late 70's or early 80's+ and I had to die from Covid-19 or any other reason to ensure that my kids and grand kids have a better future in every way(and yes, financial is a HUGE factor in lifestyle, good life etc), you're damn right I'm going to do it. At that point, I've lived most of my life, i'm closer to death than I am to just being born..it's not far away and I know I can't stop it...when it's my time, it's my time. of course I'd make that sacrifice.

Remember that whole "Death Panel" charade? Sounds familiar....

[MU82]

A friend of mine just posted this on his blog:

Tell me why companies deserve a bailout when faced with a crisis that is "no fault of their own," as Treasury secretary Mnuchin said, but when a family suffers a health crisis that is no fault of their own their bankruptcy is met with a shrug by our government.

It's a pretty good question.

As for the soon-to-be-passed legislation ...

It is imperfect, and it also contains pork, as is the case with most of these kinds of things. Given the time constraints and the huge size of the problem, it could have been worse.

Still, 2 trillion bucks does seem like a lot to have to spend given that, just one month ago, somebody was tweeting: "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA."

[injuryBug]

Not how that works.

sorry forgot to use teal

[shoothoops]

The quote you posted from the last article was directly addressed and explained later in the article. Why ignore that part of it?

As to Trump's team being disinterested, the BI article mentions 2 people who are said to have questioned why they needed to be there. The article says "most of the Trump administration officials paid attention." So were some disinterested? Sure, according to all the anonymous staffers from the prior administration that happens to be very much at odds with the current administration. Does that mean the whole team was disinterested? I'm not sure I'd share the same conclusion. Plus, the claims that people weren't interested were refuted by spokesmen from the current administration.

Overall, I question Business Insider's quality. Too much of their stuff reads like a tabloid. This article in particular fits that model. Some of their stuff is good, but too much of it is click-baity. The Politico article that whole BI article is based off was much better.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797

I could link articles all day with well sourced specifics as to the lack of preparedness and lack of initial effective response by the current administration. This is a common, widely held belief. If we can't agree on that, I am not sure what to say.

This is a quote from you one week ago:

"You think we'll see 6 figure deaths globally or in the US? I haven't seen anything that would make me believe 100,000 deaths globally would be within the realm of possibility. And if you're talking about the US.... well, let's just say we'll have to agree to disagree"

[skianth16]

I could link articles all day with well sourced specifics as to the lack of preparedness and lack of initial effective response by the current administration. This is a common, widely held belief. If we can't agree on that, I am not sure what to say.

This is a quote from you one week ago:

"You think we'll see 6 figure deaths globally or in the US? I haven't seen anything that would make me believe 100,000 deaths globally would be within the realm of possibility. And if you're talking about the US.... well, let's just say we'll have to agree to disagree"

I would agree that the federal response hasn't been very good. But it's not like we're alone here. Only a handful of countries were well-prepared and executed solid responses. The comments and stories on the response get to a point where it's just political, though, and that's what I try to avoid. So when there are articles shared with half-truths or misleading headlines, I think it's worth calling out.

While I don't see how my post you quoted ties into this current thread of conversation, I still think it's pretty accurate. I still don't think we'll see 100K deaths globally, and we definitely won't see that in the US. The measures the US and the rest of the world are taking seem to be working. I'm encouraged by that.

[Johnny B]

I would agree that the federal response hasn't been very good. But it's not like we're alone here. Only a handful of countries were well-prepared and executed solid responses. The comments and stories on the response get to a point where it's just political, though, and that's what I try to avoid. So when there are articles shared with half-truths or misleading headlines, I think it's worth calling out.

While I don't see how my post you quoted ties into this current thread of conversation, I still think it's pretty accurate. I still don't think we'll see 100K deaths globally, and we definitely won't see that in the US. The measures the US and the rest of the world are taking seem to be working. I'm encouraged by that.

Zero chance we dont see 100k globally. If we dont itll be because of non reporting.
Almost zero chance we dont see 100k here as well. Hate to say it.
Usa restrictions are pretty mild compared to other countries. Half the states arent really doing anything. Not even close to a national lock down like others so i would not compare us to other places. Cases and deaths will skyrocket sadly. And apparently were gonna have packed churches and reopen things by easter. Idek what to say. Chaos awaits. Were all standing on the beach watching the tidal wave approach

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Sounds like Japan may not be as good as hoped. 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Sounds like Japan may not be as good as hoped.

This month, we were supposed to have a follow-up quality audit from our Japanese corporate that was indefinitely postponed. 

It broke everyone's heart here.