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Author Topic: Bracketology 2019-2020  (Read 126752 times)

Its DJOver

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #675 on: April 09, 2020, 01:58:23 PM »
Nothing that you said changes the fact that expectations have been lowered.

Let me ask you a hypothetical then.

Since the standard was set during Crean's tenure (according to you) say Crean rejects I4.  Mindset of "I've been here almost a decade, I've brought them a FF, I've got a great Senior class, my popularity is going to skyrocket once my check for the soccer stadium clears".  He then proceeds exactly to recreate what he had done.  NCAA appearance 55% of the time (5 of 9 years), NCAA win 22% of the seasons (2 of 9), making it past the first weekend 11% of the time (1 of 9).  Do you think the fan base would be happy with him? 

bilsu

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #676 on: April 09, 2020, 02:04:28 PM »
Next year will be interesting. We lost a great player in Howard. However, Howard was absolutely terrible when the game was on the line. Of course every opposing coach knew he would have the ball. However, that does not excuse Howard from more than once trying to split 2 defenders and losing the ball.

WhiteTrash

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #677 on: April 09, 2020, 02:07:53 PM »
Let me ask you a hypothetical then.

Since the standard was set during Crean's tenure (according to you) say Crean rejects I4.  Mindset of "I've been here almost a decade, I've brought them a FF, I've got a great Senior class, my popularity is going to skyrocket once my check for the soccer stadium clears".  He then proceeds exactly to recreate what he had done.  NCAA appearance 55% of the time (5 of 9 years), NCAA win 22% of the seasons (2 of 9), making it past the first weekend 11% of the time (1 of 9).  Do you think the fan base would be happy with him?
It's great to be a Wojo supporter, I admire your optimism and hope he does well. But Wojo is not in Crean's class as a coach. This is where Pro-Jo's start to loose the argument. No different than claiming Wojo is the worst coach ever.

Its DJOver

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #678 on: April 09, 2020, 02:20:33 PM »
It's great to be a Wojo supporter, I admire your optimism and hope he does well. But Wojo is not in Crean's class as a coach. This is where Pro-Jo's start to loose the argument. No different than claiming Wojo is the worst coach ever.

I'm a Marquette supporter, and since I have no say in who the coach is, I support whoever the coach currently is.  Same question to you, that you conveniently ignored.  55% bid rate, 22% win rate, 11% multi-win rate, these are the ratios that our "high expectations" are based on.  Let's do the math, a bid this year would have gotten Wojo to 50% bid rate (this was a guarantee in my eye, others may disagree).  IF he had won a game that would have been 16%, so 6 percent below Crean, and he would have either been 11 below or 5 percent above in the multi-win rate.

Lets say we get a bid next year (by no means a guarantee), Wojo is up to 57% bid rate (above Crean), a win + potentially a win this year would put him at 28% win rate (above Crean) S16 or better (either this or next year) would put him at 14% (above Crean). 

As much as my being a MU fan may cause me to have a glue and gold tint regarding whomever the current coach is, being a Nojo-er by default give you a pro Crean or Buzz tint.  I can admit my biases, can you admit yours?

panda

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #679 on: April 09, 2020, 02:29:41 PM »
Let me ask you a hypothetical then.

Since the standard was set during Crean's tenure (according to you) say Crean rejects I4.  Mindset of "I've been here almost a decade, I've brought them a FF, I've got a great Senior class, my popularity is going to skyrocket once my check for the soccer stadium clears".  He then proceeds exactly to recreate what he had done.  NCAA appearance 55% of the time (5 of 9 years), NCAA win 22% of the seasons (2 of 9), making it past the first weekend 11% of the time (1 of 9).  Do you think the fan base would be happy with him?

Fans will always want more. From Duke to Akron, I’m sure you can find supporters who have expectations which are insurmountable for the program. That’s not exclusive to Marquette.

Your hypothetical still doesn’t address that Marquette very recently had a much higher floor than it does now.

panda

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #680 on: April 09, 2020, 02:30:27 PM »
I'm a Marquette supporter, and since I have no say in who the coach is, I support whoever the coach currently is.  Same question to you, that you conveniently ignored.  55% bid rate, 22% win rate, 11% multi-win rate, these are the ratios that our "high expectations" are based on.  Let's do the math, a bid this year would have gotten Wojo to 50% bid rate (this was a guarantee in my eye, others may disagree).  IF he had won a game that would have been 16%, so 6 percent below Crean, and he would have either been 11 below or 5 percent above in the multi-win rate.

Lets say we get a bid next year (by no means a guarantee), Wojo is up to 57% bid rate (above Crean), a win + potentially a win this year would put him at 28% win rate (above Crean) S16 or better (either this or next year) would put him at 14% (above Crean). 

As much as my being a MU fan may cause me to have a glue and gold tint regarding whomever the current coach is, being a Nojo-er by default give you a pro Crean or Buzz tint.  I can admit my biases, can you admit yours?

Your percentages are quite misguided. I like to look at the whole picture. Crean earned higher seeds and has won in the tournament. Wojo on the other hand???

He snuck into the tournament twice and with his best team, backed in on an awful collapse amidst heavy team turmoil. Embarrassed both times in the tournament. We’ll never know what would have happened this past season, but all signs pointed to another first round exit.

There is zero comparison.


Its DJOver

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #681 on: April 09, 2020, 02:34:36 PM »
Fans will always want more. From Duke to Akron, I’m sure you can find supporters who have expectations which are insurmountable for the program. That’s not exclusive to Marquette.

Your hypothetical still doesn’t address that Marquette very recently had a much higher floor than it does now.

Please actually read my posts completely.  This "floor" that you asserted as starting during the Crean era is a bid percentage of 55, Wojo is at 50.  That hardly constitutes "much higher".  I think that you may have an inflated view of certain era's because of one great season.  Crean got us a FF, and that shouldn't be taken away from him, but that is the one year that he won more than 1 tourney game, and he only managed to win one tourney game without Wade.  Unless Crean was "failing to meet expectations too", because, as others have said, Wojo is pretty much Crean without Wade, to date.

Johnny B

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #682 on: April 09, 2020, 02:35:59 PM »
Did somone say it will be impressive to make the NIT?

WhiteTrash

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #683 on: April 09, 2020, 02:45:48 PM »
I'm a Marquette supporter, and since I have no say in who the coach is, I support whoever the coach currently is.  Same question to you, that you conveniently ignored.  55% bid rate, 22% win rate, 11% multi-win rate, these are the ratios that our "high expectations" are based on.  Let's do the math, a bid this year would have gotten Wojo to 50% bid rate (this was a guarantee in my eye, others may disagree).  IF he had won a game that would have been 16%, so 6 percent below Crean, and he would have either been 11 below or 5 percent above in the multi-win rate.

Lets say we get a bid next year (by no means a guarantee), Wojo is up to 57% bid rate (above Crean), a win + potentially a win this year would put him at 28% win rate (above Crean) S16 or better (either this or next year) would put him at 14% (above Crean). 

As much as my being a MU fan may cause me to have a glue and gold tint regarding whomever the current coach is, being a Nojo-er by default give you a pro Crean or Buzz tint.  I can admit my biases, can you admit yours?
You must not have been around when Crean took over at MU. He did an amazing job considering where MU was with conference affiliation and practice facilities. Wojo has way more assets to work with (and I mean relative to where budgets were and are today). There is a very good reason IU hired him. Not even the most Pro-Jo would think a school like IU would hire Wojo.

Also, if we are playing "what if's", what if Crean stayed and took MU to a Final Four every 5 years? (Something he did as opposed to your "what if" of Wojo winning a NCAA game). Would you admit he is a better coach than Wojo?

I went from 100% support of his extension a year ago to off the bandwagon this past season. I guess I'll admit his performance has made me biased against him being coach. I am also biased for coaches that go to Elite 8 and Final Fours.   

panda

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #684 on: April 09, 2020, 02:47:50 PM »
Please actually read my posts completely.  This "floor" that you asserted as starting during the Crean era is a bid percentage of 55, Wojo is at 50.  That hardly constitutes "much higher".  I think that you may have an inflated view of certain era's because of one great season.  Crean got us a FF, and that shouldn't be taken away from him, but that is the one year that he won more than 1 tourney game, and he only managed to win one tourney game without Wade.  Unless Crean was "failing to meet expectations too", because, as others have said, Wojo is pretty much Crean without Wade, to date.

I can’t continue this debate if you’re seriously comparing Wojo to Crean.

Its DJOver

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #685 on: April 09, 2020, 02:51:00 PM »
You must not have been around when Crean took over at MU. He did an amazing job considering where MU was with conference affiliation and practice facilities. Wojo has way more assets to work with (and I mean relative to where budgets were and are today). There is a very good reason IU hired him. Not even the most Pro-Jo would think a school like IU would hire Wojo.

Also, if we are playing "what if's", what if Crean stayed and took MU to a Final Four every 5 years? (Something he did as opposed to your "what if" of Wojo winning a NCAA game). Would you admit he is a better coach than Wojo?

I went from 100% support of his extension a year ago to off the bandwagon this past season. I guess I'll admit his performance has made me biased against him being coach. I am also biased for coaches that go to Elite 8 and Final Fours.

You must not have seen what was here in terms of players when Wojo arrived.

We can actually play that "what if" because Crean has continued to coach.  If he'd gotten a FF every 5 years, or even another one, I'd say that he was unequivocally better than Wojo.  Instead his bid % has dropped from 55 while at MU to 45 overall, and despite having more talent on a few of those I4 teams than he ever had at MU (2003 aside).

You, among a lot here, seem to judge primarily on post-season success, so I find it a bit confusing how you've gone from 100% on board to 100% off board when literally every coach in the country gets an incomplete this season.

WhiteTrash

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #686 on: April 09, 2020, 02:51:21 PM »
Did somone say it will be impressive to make the NIT?
This year it would be.

I'll be impressed if we are better than .500 as the team stands now.

Maybe this is the year Wojo figures it out but it also maybe the beginning of the end. Many are not crazy about him and I'm not talking about just the students.

Its DJOver

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #687 on: April 09, 2020, 02:51:38 PM »
I can’t continue this debate if you’re seriously comparing Wojo to Crean.

Yea, why would we compare two MU coaches, that's silly.

panda

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #688 on: April 09, 2020, 02:58:54 PM »
Yea, why would we compare two MU coaches, that's silly.

Because one has more regular season and post season success than the other. How is this debatable?

Its DJOver

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #689 on: April 09, 2020, 03:09:23 PM »
Because one has more regular season and post season success than the other. How is this debatable?

One has been a head coach for 20 years, and had his most successful post-season performance in year 4 suggesting that he may have peaked as a coach then, and any improvement that he has made since has been, at best, on par with the overall growth of the game.  The other has been a head coach for 6 years and had his most successful season last year, indicating that he may still be growing in his abilities as a coach. 

 Also, were you not comparing them here, literally a few hours ago?

I went back to post FF run as most would say that was the moment our program took a significant step forward.

05/06 - 4th place finish 7 seed
06/07 - 6th place finish 8 seed
07/08 - 6th place finish 6 seed
08/09 - 5th place finish 6 seed
09/10 - 5th place finish 6 seed
10/11 - 9th place finish 11 seed
11/12 - 2nd place finish 3 seed
12/13 - Tied for 1st 3 seed

NBE
13/14 - 6th no tournament

Wojo
14/15 - 9th no tournament
15/16 - 7th no tournament
16/17 - tied for 3rd 10 seed
17/18 - tied for 6th no tournament
18/19 - 2nd 6th seed
19/20 - 6th projected on the 9/10 line

So after looking back, is the bar not significantly lower when we barely got in (19/20 and 16/17) and 18/19 which was a monumentally bad collapse only to be rivaled by the 19/20 collapse?

Getting into the tournament has been the minimum expectation with this program with Buzz and Crean. With Wojo, getting in the tournament is somehow a saving grace...Expectations lowered.

Edited to say that if you were to follow your logic, Herb Magee would be a better coach than Jim Calhoun, Dean Smith, Bobby Knight, Al McGuire etc.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 03:12:10 PM by Its DJOver »

MU82

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #690 on: April 09, 2020, 03:12:17 PM »
Quote from: Goose on November 25, 2019, 07:02:42 PM
I would take bets that this team is on outside looking in come March. Way too many holes and Howard cannot carry a team on his back without a couple more options.


+++

Quote from: Warrior of Law on November 25, 2019, 07:21:39 PM
Agreed that this is not a NCAA team, and I don't think it will be much of a debate come Selection Sunday.  If MU is a 8-9 seed, that would be Wojo's greatest achievement.


+++

That's classic stuff, DJO, thanks for posting.

“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

WhiteTrash

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #691 on: April 09, 2020, 03:14:39 PM »
You must not have seen what was here in terms of players when Wojo arrived.

We can actually play that "what if" because Crean has continued to coach.  If he'd gotten a FF every 5 years, or even another one, I'd say that he was unequivocally better than Wojo.  Instead his bid % has dropped from 55 while at MU to 45 overall, and despite having more talent on a few of those I4 teams than he ever had at MU (2003 aside).

You, among a lot here, seem to judge primarily on post-season success, so I find it a bit confusing how you've gone from 100% on board to 100% off board when literally every coach in the country gets an incomplete this season.
I know Wojo only had 4 or 5 top 100 players? Crean had 4 or 5 McDonald's All Americans. Deane was great recruiter and Crean walked into an awesome situation.

I think it's foolish to compare Crean to Wojo. I think there are better and more logical arguments to support Wojo but this is not one.

I am off the Wojo bandwagon because he has not had a PG in 6 years and he also could not win at a high level with an AA talent in Howard. I hate to say it but I believe '18-'19 was the high water mark for Wojo.

Can we agree next year looks like an NIT year if all goes well and a reasonable expectation is .500? It's not what I hope for after 6 years. I hope I am 100% wrong but it looks to me like the trajectory of the program is going down.

Its DJOver

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #692 on: April 09, 2020, 03:19:37 PM »
I know Wojo only had 4 or 5 top 100 players? Crean had 4 or 5 McDonald's All Americans. Deane was great recruiter and Crean walked into an awesome situation.

I think it's foolish to compare Crean to Wojo. I think there are better and more logical arguments to support Wojo but this is not one.

I am off the Wojo bandwagon because he has not had a PG in 6 years and he also could not win at a high level with an AA talent in Howard. I hate to say it but I believe '18-'19 was the high water mark for Wojo.

Can we agree next year looks like an NIT year if all goes well and a reasonable expectation is .500? It's not what I hope for after 6 years. I hope I am 100% wrong but it looks to me like the trajectory of the program is going down.

I certainly wouldn't agree to this at all.  One of the reasons that i dug those old Goose and WOTL posts out was to show how foolish it is to make these grand March predictions in November.  I think it is even more foolish to make them the April before.  Our roster could look very different in just a couple of days, the non-conference schedule is months from being released.  Year-to-year growth by players (and coaches) is at best, not an exact science, and at worse a crapshoot.  There is so much that can happen between now and March 2021.  I doubt it would happen, but the idea of no basketball at all next year is not as far fetched as it was a couple of weeks ago.

WhiteTrash

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #693 on: April 09, 2020, 03:20:31 PM »
The other has been a head coach for 6 years and had his most successful season last year, indicating that he may still be growing in his abilities as a coach. 

False. 2 years ago was way better. MU was not going to be better than a 5 seed last year. We were going to be a 9-11 seed.

Plus we will not make it this year so the indications are that he is NOT growing as a coach.

Its DJOver

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #694 on: April 09, 2020, 03:34:02 PM »
False. 2 years ago was way better. MU was not going to be better than a 5 seed last year. We were going to be a 9-11 seed.

Plus we will not make it this year so the indications are that he is NOT growing as a coach.

I didn't make it clear, we're talking about the same year.  In my head the 19/20 season didn't end. 18/19 was his peak to date, 19/20 was a step back, 20/21 is TDB although you seem to be writing us off already.  Solid fandom

WhiteTrash

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #695 on: April 09, 2020, 03:39:49 PM »
I certainly wouldn't agree to this at all.  One of the reasons that i dug those old Goose and WOTL posts out was to show how foolish it is to make these grand March predictions in November.  I think it is even more foolish to make them the April before.  Our roster could look very different in just a couple of days, the non-conference schedule is months from being released.  Year-to-year growth by players (and coaches) is at best, not an exact science, and at worse a crapshoot.  There is so much that can happen between now and March 2021.  I doubt it would happen, but the idea of no basketball at all next year is not as far fetched as it was a couple of weeks ago.
Okay, fair enough, I agree there is a chance we make it into the Tourney IF we add a PG and other players. But as presently constituted, this is not an NCAA team. Not my opinion or fellow Scooper's opinions but ESPN's and Vegas'. (they maybe No-Jo's too?)

I think expecting this team to be better than .500 is terribly unfair to the team, and if that is the expectation, then the fan base and maybe the AD will run Wojo out of town.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 03:41:24 PM by WhiteTrash »

WhiteTrash

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #696 on: April 09, 2020, 03:49:06 PM »
I didn't make it clear, we're talking about the same year.  In my head the 19/20 season didn't end. 18/19 was his peak to date, 19/20 was a step back, 20/21 is TDB although you seem to be writing us off already.  Solid fandom
Yes, I hate MU. That's why I'm on this board. I am a booster (not big) of MUBB but I am not a fan. Classy. Are you going to call me a racist next?

You don't see me questioning your fandom because you secretly want MU to be below average by keeping Wojo.

dgies9156

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #697 on: April 09, 2020, 03:49:56 PM »
Next year will be interesting. We lost a great player in Howard. However, Howard was absolutely terrible when the game was on the line. Of course every opposing coach knew he would have the ball. However, that does not excuse Howard from more than once trying to split 2 defenders and losing the ball.

I love Markus and am proud of what he accomplished.

This, however, is the problem. When we beat Creighton last year after scoring five points in five seconds, it was Sam who applied the dagger. Teams knew that we had two natural scorers and couldn't tighten the noose around Markus and get away with it. The ultimate problem with this year's team was there were not reliable scorers beyond Markus.

We went into the year thinking the combination of Koby, Brendan and Sacar could offset the loss of the Big and Baby Hauser. If Coach Wojo had a weakness, it was that he put too much reliance on this trio. When Koby was injured and Brendan hibernated, we were lost.

Next year, we will be tournament worthy if Koby becomes what we think he can; if Greg can step in and sop up minutes and if Brendan can be what we hope he can be. Otherwise, we'll be asking an awful lot from our freshmen.

« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 03:51:55 PM by dgies9156 »

Its DJOver

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #698 on: April 09, 2020, 03:56:26 PM »
Okay, fair enough, I agree there is a chance we make it into the Tourney IF we add a PG and other players. But as presently constituted, this is not an NCAA team. Not my opinion or fellow Scooper's opinions but ESPN's and Vegas'. (they maybe No-Jo's too?)

I think expecting this team to be better than .500 is terribly unfair to the team, and if that is the expectation, then the fan base and maybe the AD will run Wojo out of town.

ESPN does that for clicks, I have neither the time nor the desire to check how accurately all of their "way too early" stuff is, especially considering it comes before all the transfer etc. (has us as a FF contender for the 19/20 season).

I think looking at record is, again, way premature, considering the non-conference schedule isn't out yet.  I also think that people may be giving other teams too much credit.  Naji Marshall at X just declared and hired an agent, so they're losing most of their core that wasn't exactly tearing it up this year.  BU loses both Baldwin and McD, I believe those are the last of Holtmann's guys, so no returning player averaging double digits last year.  SH just got Aiken, but losing McKnight, Powell and Gil will still have them worse next year.  I have no clue what UCONN has, but they didn't exactly tear through the American this year.  Yes we lost a ton too, but we also have the highest rated freshman class in the conference, as well as finalists on a couple of potentially very good players that can be added to the roster immediately.  I'll again admit that am generally an optimist, but writing any team off 11 months prior to selection sunday is foolish IMO.   

Its DJOver

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Re: Bracketology 2019-2020
« Reply #699 on: April 09, 2020, 04:04:58 PM »
Yes, I hate MU. That's why I'm on this board. I am a booster (not big) of MUBB but I am not a fan. Classy. Are you going to call me a racist next?

You don't see me questioning your fandom because you secretly want MU to be below average by keeping Wojo.

Where did I say that you weren't a fan?  You're here in the offseason, that'd kind of make you one by default.  Where did I even come close to implying anything whatsoever regarding race/racism? 

I'm slightly confused by your overly pessimistic attitude.  That ESPN article that you were just so fond of has us as one of the first teams out.  I certainly think that a jump from "next four out" to "in" isn't an unrealistic enough one to be declaring 11 months prior to SS that we won't make the tourney.  Again, so many variables at play, we could perform exactly as ESPN thinks we will but get in because other team under-perform.  There could be a soft bubble.  There could be a firm bubble.  Making these big declarations like this in April 2020 is silly, that's all I'm saying.