Bracketology 2019-2020

[muguru]

Or it absolutely ruins the best two days of college basketball all season for you.  This year I am hoping for Thursday night because I am going to sportsbook with some friends on Friday.  Would rather watch MU game at home.  But generally speaking, give me Friday afternoon or evening all day long over a Thursday game.

+1000 as I said, give me at least ONE day to enjoy the tournament before worrying about MU's game.

[GoldenDieners32]

+1000 as I said, give me at least ONE day to enjoy the tournament before worrying about MU's game.

im already nervous thinking about it

[MU82]

Like you, I prefer early Thursday, early Saturday. If we lose  I don't enjoy the games that follow very much - but if I'm waiting all day Thursday and Friday for us to play I don't much enjoy the early games either. But if we win early (as I expect we will this year) The whole tournament is much more fun.

I like the way you think, Lenny!

Although, I love the entire tournament, so if we get a Friday game, I spend all Thursday watching. And the fact that Marquette goes the next day only makes me anticipate it more.

All things being equal, though, I prefer exactly what you said. Including the win and the fun!

[HowardsWorld]

I really feel at worst we will be a 5 seed. I really cannot see Howard not getting at least 2 wins in the ncaa tournament. Maybe I am optimistic but I feel good about the rest of the schedule. I think a nice win streak and going to at least the BET championship would land us a 3/4 line.

[MuMark]

I really feel at worst we will be a 5 seed. I really cannot see Howard not getting at least 2 wins in the ncaa tournament. Maybe I am optimistic but I feel good about the rest of the schedule. I think a nice win streak and going to at least the BET championship would land us a 3/4 line.

You're being optimistic........4-7 is the likely range. None would shock me in the slightest.

Let's win 1 ncaa game before we start thinking 2 is a lock......all it takes is a bad game or a bad matchup and you're out......

[bilsu]

How is butler ahead of Marquette?

Both beat Purdue
Same big east record
1 point loss with Baylor?
Split victories
2 seed lines?

I really think Butler is an average team. The problem I have with any rating system is it does not discount November games. Some teams are just more ready to play in November and they beat teams that they would not beat now. Michigan and Ohio St. are teams that looked really good in November. Maybe even Michigan St. Every time Wisconsin plays/beats one of these teams their net improves even if these teams are not as good now. It is really hard to determine how good a conference is, because teams change so much after the conference season starts.

[muguru]

Last #5 seed(20 overall) on Lunardi's seed list this morning..

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/1229066257296711682/photo/1

[Cheeks]

I really feel at worst we will be a 5 seed. I really cannot see Howard not getting at least 2 wins in the ncaa tournament. Maybe I am optimistic but I feel good about the rest of the schedule. I think a nice win streak and going to at least the BET championship would land us a 3/4 line.

You're being optimistic.  I don't know how anyone can say at LEAST 2 wins in the NCAA tournament without knowing our seed, and more importantly who we are playing.  If it is a team that is long and athletic, that poses different challenges than a team that might be more perimeter-oriented and guard-heavy.

Matchups are critical.

[Cheeks]

I really think Butler is an average team. The problem I have with any rating system is it does not discount November games. Some teams are just more ready to play in November and they beat teams that they would not beat now. Michigan and Ohio St. are teams that looked really good in November. Maybe even Michigan St. Every time Wisconsin plays/beats one of these teams their net improves even if these teams are not as good now. It is really hard to determine how good a conference is, because teams change so much after the conference season starts.

That's fair, but some of these rating systems have an option to examine the last 10 or 15 games to account for recency of play.   I don't think we should discount what happens in November either....those games count like any other game, but to your point it may not illustrate level of play going into the tournament.

Let me give you an example with Sagarin.

He has MU rated 18th overall.  But in his "recent" ratings, MU is 13th.

Butler he has 43rd overall....but in the recent ratings he has them 58th.


He has Creighton recency ratings at 9th.   That's the game that scares me the most right now.

[DoctorV]

That's fair, but some of these rating systems have an option to examine the last 10 or 15 games to account for recency of play.   I don't think we should discount what happens in November either....those games count like any other game, but to your point it may not illustrate level of play going into the tournament.

Let me give you an example with Sagarin.

He has MU rated 18th overall.  But in his "recent" ratings, MU is 13th.

Butler he has 43rd overall....but in the recent ratings he has them 58th.


He has Creighton recency ratings at 9th.   That's the game that scares me the most right now.

This isn't politically correct but fu*k Creighton. We must make them bow down

[Cheeks]

This isn't politically correct but fu*k Creighton. We must make them bow down

Not a good matchup for us in my opinion.

[DoctorV]

Not a good matchup for us in my opinion.

Perhaps not, but Markus is never a good matchup for them either... hopefully the crowd is vibrant.

I would've never guessed that Creighton would be doing this well when this game came up on the calendar. I think it's a great opportunity for a marquee win at a good point in the season 

[BM1090]

Top 6 seed at NBC/Bracketville

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

[drewm88]

I really think Butler is an average team. The problem I have with any rating system is it does not discount November games. Some teams are just more ready to play in November and they beat teams that they would not beat now. Michigan and Ohio St. are teams that looked really good in November. Maybe even Michigan St. Every time Wisconsin plays/beats one of these teams their net improves even if these teams are not as good now. It is really hard to determine how good a conference is, because teams change so much after the conference season starts.

TRank factors that in. Anything in the last 40 days is weighted 100%. It then goes down by 1% each day, bottoming out at 60%. So even if no new games were played, teams like Butler with early season success would see their ratings slip these next few weeks.

[GoldenDieners32]

Top 6 seed at NBC/Bracketville

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

against Rhode Island first round would be tough

[Cheeks]

Latest BracketMatrix


http://www.bracketmatrix.com/


Best 6 seed

[HowardsWorld]

Nova as a 4 seed is borderline criminal.

[fjm]

Looks we are settling in to a spot between 5 and 7 seed. Yes that is 12 spots so a wide range.

I am typically optimistic. But I think we go 3-3 to finish the season and end up with a 7 seed.

[BM1090]

Looks we are settling in to a spot between 5 and 7 seed. Yes that is 12 spots so a wide range.

I am typically optimistic. But I think we go 3-3 to finish the season and end up with a 7 seed.

I think we'd still get a 6 at 3-3

[fjm]

I think we'd still get a 6 at 3-3

Awe shizzzz I'll take that. Let me jump over to TRank

[fjm]

Gave us 3-3.

Depending on who the L's are to (obviously) we are between the first 6 and the 2nd 7.

[BM1090]

Gave us 3-3.

Depending on who the L's are to (obviously) we are between the first 6 and the 2nd 7.

Let's just go 4-2 then.

[wadesworld]

Nova as a 4 seed is borderline criminal.

In which direction?

[PGsHeroes32]

Looks we are settling in to a spot between 5 and 7 seed. Yes that is 12 spots so a wide range.

I am typically optimistic. But I think we go 3-3 to finish the season and end up with a 7 seed.

No way are we a 7 at 3-3.

Even if we win the 3 "worst" games. Thats still a pair of road wins.

We actually still have a really good shot at a 4 seed(if we can win the games). 4-2 with 3 home wins(2 being Q1) and a Q1 road win puts us right in the convo.

Gonna be tough to do that tho

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Without going 5-1 or one of the current 4 seeds tanking in the last few games, I'm not sure I see a path to a 4 seed. I think the 5 and 6 seeds are pretty clumped but I think the top 4 seed lines are starting to separate themselves and their just isn't that many opportunities for them to stumble. Looking at bracketmatrix, the 4 seeds are currently Penn State, Nova, Oregon, and Creighton. Combined, those 4 teams have 14 Q1, 6 Q2, and 2 Q3 games remaining. They won't get punished for losing the Q1 games and won't get that hurt by Q2 losses. So unless Oregon loses to Cal or Penn State loses to Northwestern, we are going to have outplay them but multiple games down the stretch to pass them.