MLB Hot Stove 2019-20

[The Sultan]

Dude not going to a baseball game has nothing to do with your civil liberties.

Yes the economy has to open up. And it will. But large crowds at sporting events will be the last thing that does. Perhaps properly spaced, smaller crowds are a possibility but full stands for baseball this year?  Not. A. Chance.

[buckchuckler]

Ive been partial to the SK Wyverns cause for an ESL country, Wyverns is an absolutely incredible mascot

That it is.  And I almost went with them too, ultimately, my daughter preferred Dinos.  So there I am.

[Bad_Reporter]

Was just told.   " Looks like training camp begins mid June season July early. Camp might be in  Milwaukee.. "

Here's to hoping that happens

[withoutbias]

Was just told.   " Looks like training camp begins mid June season July early. Camp might be in  Milwaukee.. "

Here's to hoping that happens

So your source can read ESPN.com, SI.com, or any other publication that covers sports?

I'm guessing your source also told you that teams will play an 82 game season, there will be 14 Playoff teams for an extra Wild Card round, universal DH, 30 man rosters with a 20 man taxi squad, divisions will remain the same but teams will only play other teams from their division and the teams in the same geographical division from the other league, revenue sharing for the players for the first time ever, and games played in empty home ballparks, unless teams can't make that happen and then at their own spring training sites?

The owners have already agreed to this proposal.  The Players Association is expected to reject it.  But my guess is, with further negotiations regarding what the revenue sharing part of it will mean for player contracts going forward, we will get most of what is being proposed in terms of rules and schedule for this season.

Whether they can actually keep teams from having to quarantine will be seen when Summer Training gets under way.

[Bad_Reporter]

So your source can read ESPN.com, SI.com, or any other publication that covers sports?

I'm guessing your source also told you that teams will play an 82 game season, there will be 14 Playoff teams for an extra Wild Card round, universal DH, 30 man rosters with a 20 man taxi squad, divisions will remain the same but teams will only play other teams from their division and the teams in the same geographical division from the other league, revenue sharing for the players for the first time ever, and games played in empty home ballparks, unless teams can't make that happen and then at their own spring training sites?

The owners have already agreed to this proposal.  The Players Association is expected to reject it.  But my guess is, with further negotiations regarding what the revenue sharing part of it will mean for player contracts going forward, we will get most of what is being proposed in terms of rules and schedule for this season.

Whether they can actually keep teams from having to quarantine will be seen when Summer Training gets under way.

BD,  not going to get into a pissing match with you.  When I want to know when Davante Gardner is bringing his warmups to a game, and still won't play for numerous games, I'll reach out.  Thanks

[buckchuckler]

I think pitchers hitting is going to be a casualty of Covid.  For you fans of pitchers hitting, my deepest heartfelt apologies that you will no longer get to watch guys that don't practice hitting hit. 

The Cubs are probably pretty happy about it, so Schwarber won't have to play the OF anymore.  I don't know if there could be another NL team as well positioned for the DH.  The Reds could be well positioned there too.

Yasiel Puig is probably pretty happy about it as well.

Also I think this delay is an advantage for the Nationals, their pitchers threw a ton of innings last season, and now will be fresher through this season, provided it still happens.  Often, teams that win the WS fall off because their pitchers can't hold up to the extra inning load.  The Nats shouldn't have to worry about Strasburg, Scherzer and Corbin as much.

[cheebs09]

I think pitchers hitting is going to be a casualty of Covid.  For you fans of pitchers hitting, my deepest heartfelt apologies that you will no longer get to watch guys that don't practice hitting hit. 

The Cubs are probably pretty happy about it, so Schwarber won't have to play the OF anymore.  I don't know if there could be another NL team as well positioned for the DH.  The Reds could be well positioned there too.

Yasiel Puig is probably pretty happy about it as well.

Also I think this delay is an advantage for the Nationals, their pitchers threw a ton of innings last season, and now will be fresher through this season, provided it still happens.  Often, teams that win the WS fall off because their pitchers can't hold up to the extra inning load.  The Nats shouldn't have to worry about Strasburg, Scherzer and Corbin as much.

Jimmy Nelson's injury ended any resistance I had to the DH.

[The Sultan]

Apparently the CBA with the players has no provision to pay less than full salary if the season goes on. No matter the length. Of course the owners want that renegotiated.

And apparently the NFL has to pay their players regardless if there is a season or not.

Players may finally have some leverage.

[GB Warrior]

Apparently the CBA with the players has no provision to pay less than full salary if the season goes on. No matter the length. Of course the owners want that renegotiated.

And apparently the NFL has to pay their players regardless if there is a season or not.

Players may finally have some leverage.

Players agreed to pro-rate already, but as the MLB has realized that revenues will go down beyond the pro-rated number of games, MLB wants to renegotiate again. Players have leverage right now, but you can guarantee the owners will (just conveniently and in complete lockstep) exact revenge in subsequent years. Players should hold fast - let's not forget that player salaries have been nose-diving over the past 3 years already. Not a dime back,eh?

[buckchuckler]

Players may finally have some leverage.

Someone should have told Donald Fehr that he never had any leverage.  He did exceptionally well without it I guess.

Players agreed to pro-rate already, but as the MLB has realized that revenues will go down beyond the pro-rated number of games, MLB wants to renegotiate again. Players have leverage right now, but you can guarantee the owners will (just conveniently and in complete lockstep) exact revenge in subsequent years. Players should hold fast - let's not forget that player salaries have been nose-diving over the past 3 years already. Not a dime back,eh?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/236213/mean-salaray-of-players-in-majpr-league-baseball/

Down, but not quite nosediving.  And that is the average.  It is the lower end veterans that have been losing out.  The high end, well...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-amount__sort_direction-0

There are about 50 guys making 20 million per season or more. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/

Plenty of guys made plenty of money.  This current version of the CBA hasn't been great for players, but in their negotiations, they focused on things other than salary considerations.  The owners, well, pretty much always focus on salary.  Things like the QO and arbitration will be huge in the next CBA I think.

I don't get why the MLBPA so readily agreed to the modifications to the draft this year (which personally I couldn't hate more).  Sure, there had to be some, but 5 rounds with a max of 20K for guys not drafted?  That's crazy cost control the owners got through with no push back at all.

[The Sultan]

Someone should have told Donald Fehr that he never had any leverage.  He did exceptionally well without it I guess.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/236213/mean-salaray-of-players-in-majpr-league-baseball/

Down, but not quite nosediving.  And that is the average.  It is the lower end veterans that have been losing out.  The high end, well...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-amount__sort_direction-0

There are about 50 guys making 20 million per season or more. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/

Plenty of guys made plenty of money.  This current version of the CBA hasn't been great for players, but in their negotiations, they focused on things other than salary considerations.  The owners, well, pretty much always focus on salary.  Things like the QO and arbitration will be huge in the next CBA I think.

I don't get why the MLBPA so readily agreed to the modifications to the draft this year (which personally I couldn't hate more).  Sure, there had to be some, but 5 rounds with a max of 20K for guys not drafted?  That's crazy cost control the owners got through with no push back at all.

Fehr's long gone and the union has suffered for it. Players unions have by and large lost leverage for years.

[buckchuckler]

Fehr's long gone and the union has suffered for it. Players unions have by and large lost leverage for years.

Absolutely.  But they have prioritized different things.  Tony Clark was seemingly a better hitter than union boss.

[cheebs09]

Absolutely.  But they have prioritized different things.  Tony Clark was seemingly a better hitter than union boss.

What made Clark qualified for this? It seems they went with lawyers prior to him.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Is it the owners and the CBA or advanced stats telling GM not to give huge money/long deals to a dude that's gonna be washed up in a few years?

[The Sultan]

Absolutely.  But they have prioritized different things.  Tony Clark was seemingly a better hitter than union boss.

Agreed on all counts.

[buckchuckler]

Is it the owners and the CBA or advanced stats telling GM not to give huge money/long deals to a dude that's gonna be washed up in a few years?

It is the advanced stats squeezing out the mediocre veterans, and the CBA squeezing the good veterans and younger players.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

The Cubs are probably pretty happy about it, so Schwarber won't have to play the OF anymore.  I don't know if there could be another NL team as well positioned for the DH.  The Reds could be well positioned there too.

According to this article, the Diamondbacks, Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, Phillies, and Nationals are all "better positioned" for a DH than the Cubs.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/how-will-nl-teams-use-universal-dh-grading-each-teams-situation-as-mlb-owners-propose-return-to-play-plans/

[buckchuckler]

According to this article, the Diamondbacks, Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, Phillies, and Nationals are all "better positioned" for a DH than the Cubs.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/how-will-nl-teams-use-universal-dh-grading-each-teams-situation-as-mlb-owners-propose-return-to-play-plans/

Those are certainly fair and true.  Though, many of those are more just that the teams are better and have more depth, like the Braves.  The Braves are better suited for it, but would you rather have Schwarber or Adam Duvall as your DH? 
I worded it wrong.  More what I meant was, there can't be many NL teams that will get better production out of their DH.
The Dodgers are a huge miss on my part.  They have so much talent and depth, they will likely have better DH production than some AL teams.  Pederson could basically full time DH.  They could play Lux at 2B or 3B and DH Muncy or Turner.  They are stacked. 
I like the Mets too, Dominic Smith can hit, and now he has a spot( though still, him producing more than Schwarber at least this year, is a stretch).  Cespedes?  Certainly, but he needs to prove he can play more than 5 games.

As for the others... I'm more skeptical

Braun or Schwarber at DH? 
Jake Lamb or Schwarber?
Starlin Castro/ Asdrubal Cabrera or Schwarber?
Jay Bruce or Schwarber?

Are the Nats, Phillies, etc. more prepared for this than the Cubs?  Yeah, probably.  But will they get more out of their DHs than the Cubs?  I doubt it.  They also get the plus of getting an absolute butcher out of LF, though many of the teams will see that same benefit. 

[wadesworld]

Those are certainly fair and true.  Though, many of those are more just that the teams are better and have more depth, like the Braves.  The Braves are better suited for it, but would you rather have Schwarber or Adam Duvall as your DH? 
I worded it wrong.  More what I meant was, there can't be many NL teams that will get better production out of their DH.
The Dodgers are a huge miss on my part.  They have so much talent and depth, they will likely have better DH production than some AL teams.  Pederson could basically full time DH.  They could play Lux at 2B or 3B and DH Muncy or Turner.  They are stacked. 
I like the Mets too, Dominic Smith can hit, and now he has a spot( though still, him producing more than Schwarber at least this year, is a stretch).  Cespedes?  Certainly, but he needs to prove he can play more than 5 games.

As for the others... I'm more skeptical

Braun or Schwarber at DH? 
Jake Lamb or Schwarber?
Starlin Castro/ Asdrubal Cabrera or Schwarber?
Jay Bruce or Schwarber?

Are the Nats, Phillies, etc. more prepared for this than the Cubs?  Yeah, probably.  But will they get more out of their DHs than the Cubs?  I doubt it.  They also get the plus of getting an absolute butcher out of LF, though many of the teams will see that same benefit.

I think you're overrating Schwarber. He's probably going to be a better DH than a decent amount of NL DHs, but I doubt it'll be by much.

[buckchuckler]

I think you're overrating Schwarber. He's probably going to be a better DH than a decent amount of NL DHs, but I doubt it'll be by much.

Maybe I am, though, that isn't really my natural inclination.  Those other guys are pretty rough.
Lamb's last 2 seasons are .208/.315/.350.   
Duvall  .212/.284/.413
Jay Bruce .219/.287/.445
Starlin Castro .274/.314/.418
Cabrera .261/.328/.450
Braun .271/.329/.488

Braun is the only one that put up good numbers across the board.  Castro and Cabrera are fine, but not too much pop there.

Schwarber .245/.347/.503

By the way, .267/327/.473 with 34 SBs... That is Yasiel Puig, just waiting for a call...

[drewm88]

You're overrating Schwarber as a hitter and underrating him as a fielder. The butcher narrative comes from a few high profile mistakes, most that took place in the playoffs 5 years ago.

Defensive stats have their issues, but they show him to be more or less average in the outfield. Same goes for the eye test if you're watching him regularly.

[buckchuckler]

You're overrating Schwarber as a hitter and underrating him as a fielder. The butcher narrative comes from a few high profile mistakes, most that took place in the playoffs 5 years ago.

Defensive stats have their issues, but they show him to be more or less average in the outfield. Same goes for the eye test if you're watching him regularly.

Not sure where you'd get this.  I mean, I just copied the numbers from bbref... so...

He is what he is as a hitter.  He will K a lot and have a mediocre to bad average, but he will walk a decent amount and have an OBP around .340 or so.  He will also hit homers and likely slug somewhere around .490. 
I feel confident that I am neither over or underrating him as a hitter, as this is what his stats say that he is.  He could easily have an outlier year one way or another, but most likely, he will be around those numbers. 

Never thought I'd see the day where I was accused of overrating cubs multiple times in a day.

And he is a butcher in the field.  I've seen him take horrible routes, get bad starts, and look like an oaf, and I don't watch them much.  They weren't all from the playoffs a couple years (yeah it wasn't close to 5- more like 2.
5 years ago he was a catcher - mostly in the minors.) ago either.  As you say, there are problems with defensive stats, but be that as it may, whether you use advanced stats, traditional stats or the eye test, he is below average. 

[drewm88]

Overrated refers to how you're claiming he's going to be this great DH, obviously not your statistics you later posted.

In 2015, Schwarber was called up and played 69 games, less than 1/3 of them were at catcher. He played in all 9 postseason games, broke the Cubs postseason home run record, and made multiple awful plays in the field in the NLCS against the Mets.

Also, defensive stats put him around average as a fielder, as I said previously.

[Keithtisbarf]

Was just told.   " Looks like training camp begins mid June season July early. Camp might be in  Milwaukee.. "

Here's to hoping that happens

Was just told by who?

[buckchuckler]

Overrated refers to how you're claiming he's going to be this great DH, obviously not your statistics you later posted.

In 2015, Schwarber was called up and played 69 games, less than 1/3 of them were at catcher. He played in all 9 postseason games, broke the Cubs postseason home run record, and made multiple awful plays in the field in the NLCS against the Mets.

Also, defensive stats put him around average as a fielder, as I said previously.

Sorry I didnt realize saying he will be better than Adam Duvall and Jake Lamb meant I thought he would be "great".  I don't think he's great,  never thought he was great, he's flawed as a hitter, but he gets on base and hits for power.  That's a good start on a DH.

Every adavnced defensive number I looked at for him started with a minus sign.

And I must have had my years crossed.  The errors he made in the 2017 playoffs were after he improved out there.