Investing Thread

[JWags85]

You seem to be at least a little concerned about BE's valuation after its meteoric rise (up nearly 1400% over the last year, giving it a forward P/E ratio of about 140). It's a valid concern because stocks that rise like a rocket do often fall like a stone when sentiment reverses. Having said that, the strong often do get stronger. In other words, there is absolutely no way of knowing today what BE's stock price will look like tomorrow or next month or next year. Nobody rings a bell to alert investors to sell.

Other people can speak more on energy stocks (and Bloom specifically), but in a vaccuum, I'd say its probably not the best time to chase it.  If you had shares already and were averaging up your cost to get a bigger position?  Sure.  But its an EXTREMELY overheated name, as the P/E ratio suggests, and its no longer "cheap".  Its a market cap of over $80B on revenue of less than $1.5B, which is pretty insane.  And while its in an extremely popular, fast growing, and explosive space/industry, they are still a manufacturing company.  To double their already large revenue, they need to sell twice as many physical generators/servers.  That being relevant cause people have been accustomed to a lot of these tech companies that can absolutely explode revenue wise but that's often just adding users, server space, or licenses, etc...

Sometimes its always helpful to look at things simply.  Its now a $285 stock.  So if you put $10,000 in, to make a 50% return ($5000), its gonna need to jump to $425+.  Even for a momentum stock it needs to break through 2 big psychological levels at $300 and $400.  And they will likely need continued positive news, PR, or earnings to blast higher.  When its already risen so far, it will need to take a break.  Lots of people have made a TON of money in the stock likely will start to take some profits or peel back some size.

Do I think its gonna implode?  Absolutely not.  But short of another massive contract/news article/etc, its very reasonable and logical for it to test around $200 before its testing above $300.

[MU82]

And they will likely need continued positive news, PR, or earnings to blast higher.  When it's already risen so far, it will need to take a break.  Lots of people have made a TON of money in the stock likely will start to take some profits or peel back some size.

This is a really good point.

High-PE, hyper-growth stocks need continued excellent financial reports to keep going higher, because they are already priced for near perfection.

Even a merely good report, or only decent guidance, can cause a fast-growth stock to take a double-digit-percentage fall in a single session.

Truly a high-risk, high-reward proposition. I don't have the risk tolerance for it, but maybe wades does. Or maybe he'd only be investing a relatively little "play" money.

I like to say: "Investor, know thyself." To me, it all comes down to one's comfort (or discomfort) level.

[MU82]

From Axios:

Since 2023, the real net worth of the top 1% of earners climbed more than 25%, fueled largely by surging financial assets, while the middle 40% of households gained less than 10%, the New York Fed finds.

They didn't even bother to say how much (or little) the bottom 59% gained (or lost).

[Skatastrophy]

From Axios:

Since 2023, the real net worth of the top 1% of earners climbed more than 25%, fueled largely by surging financial assets, while the middle 40% of households gained less than 10%, the New York Fed finds.

They didn't even bother to say how much (or little) the bottom 59% gained (or lost).

It's so boring listening to the poor complain about their situation 

[rocky_warrior]

Since 2023, the real net worth of the top 1% of earners climbed more than 25%, fueled largely by surging financial assets, while the middle 40% of households gained less than 10%, the New York Fed finds.

I'm actually confused by this, not sure what they mean "since 2023".  Even being generous, the S&P500 is up about ~50% since Jan 2024,the Dow is up ~31%.  I think even my somewhat conservative strategy is in a range between those two.

I mean, yes, the article is really saying poor people don't have a net worth.  But I find it hard to believe I'm doing better than the top 1%

[rocky_warrior]

t its an EXTREMELY overheated name, as the P/E ratio suggests, and its no longer "cheap".  Its a market cap of over $80B on revenue of less than $1.5B, which is pretty insane.

I've never looked into Bloom, but did because of this thread.  So they do "solid oxide" storage (?) - targeted at data centers (probably why they're hot).  I'd love for someone to correct me, but "solid oxide" is really just a "fuel cell" generator, right?

"solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is an electrochemical device that functions as a high-efficiency generator, converting fuel directly into electricity. SOFCs use a solid ceramic electrolyte to operate at high temperatures, producing power and heat from natural gas, propane, or hydrogen"

So...there's really nothing novel there.  They'll have the same issues procuring power generation equipment as utilities are having.  Long term, solar and (lithium) battery storage is probably a better bet.  For raw lithium look at LAC as a speculative play (though not really, they've already got DOE and GM funding, just building up the mine). 

I know sodium ion batteries are a hot topic right now, but I don't think sodium is particularly investible (that is a question)?  Nor do I know a particular developer of those batteries.  For utilities and data centers, I'm really interested in iron air batteries (Form energy).  They're a private company now though, iron air isn't particularly efficient in terms of charge/discharge (round trip), but they're super cheap, and if you don't care about taking a couple acres for batteries (they're relatively big), the 100 hour discharge time is a big plus when you're dealing with renewables that might have a couple days of not-great production in a row.  And hey, you can shade them all with solar panels and windmills...

[MU82]

I'm actually confused by this, not sure what they mean "since 2023".  Even being generous, the S&P500 is up about ~50% since Jan 2024,the Dow is up ~31%.  I think even my somewhat conservative strategy is in a range between those two.

I mean, yes, the article is really saying poor people don't have a net worth.  But I find it hard to believe I'm doing better than the top 1%

Your net worth is up 25% since 2023? Congrats, my man!

[rocky_warrior]

Your net worth is up 25% since 2023? Congrats, my man!

Closer to 50% (not including additional investments).  I'm mostly a S&P500 indexer.  My best performing account holds about 44% S&P ETFs, 34% dividend paying companies (VYM), 14% bonds, the other 8% are some random fliers I take, but really most of that are the GE spin off companies (I bought GE a long time ago, and held through their crash).   I reinvest the S&P dividends, but take the bond $ and other dividends and push them back in the S&P.

I've posted this before, but I was really swayed a few years years ago when I found this calculator, and compared what I had done since 2005 (a year I took funds from a company 401k into a self directed IRA) with what I could have done...
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/sp500-calculator/

[MU82]

rocky, I'm gonna tell you that not that many people saw their entire net worth increase by 25% since 2023. 50%? Seriously, congrats.

[rocky_warrior]

rocky, I'm gonna tell you that not that many people saw their entire net worth increase by 25% since 2023. 50%? Seriously, congrats.

I understand.  And like I said, I think a lot of is people not having enough savings to invest.  But then there are many that even with large chunks of money, they leave it sitting in a savings account earning very little.  Heck, my mother was one of those people that collected her 0.02% interest in a Chase savings account.  Since 2022 I've been helping her "make money with her money" and while much more conservative, it's grown quite a bit too.

As I outlined above, it's been pretty easy the past few years to get enormous gains.  I tell every child I see to "Buy VOO, keep buying VOO, and never sell".  Ok, ok, only really kids I know, and of course I hope they *can* sell it someday for something they want. That has historically been FANTASTIC investing advice.

[TallTitan34]

rocky, I'm gonna tell you that not that many people saw their entire net worth increase by 25% since 2023. 50%? Seriously, congrats.

I'm near that Rocky range. WWD has been a big help with that.

[Jay Bee]

Flirting with 50.. #NoCougar

[Skatastrophy]

rocky, I'm gonna tell you that not that many people saw their entire net worth increase by 25% since 2023. 50%? Seriously, congrats.

I mean, if people are invested in the S&P500 they should have seen ~21% annualized returns over the past 3 years. That's over 80% growth over the past 3 years.

[SoCalEagle]

The beat goes on for AAPL (closed above $300 for first time ever on Friday):

Apple shares closed at a new record high above $300 after investors rewarded the company's stronger-than-expected earnings, surging Services revenue, and massive $100 billion buyback despite continued criticism of its delayed AI rollout.

[MU82]

The beat goes on for AAPL (closed above $300 for first time ever on Friday):

Apple shares closed at a new record high above $300 after investors rewarded the company's stronger-than-expected earnings, surging Services revenue, and massive $100 billion buyback despite continued criticism of its delayed AI rollout.

FWIW, AAPL would have closed above $300 long ago if not for 5 stock splits over the decades.

But your point is still valid about the company's continued execution, and the way it has rewarded shareholders.

And with that, I guess it's time to thank Smuggles (aka Heisey) again!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

FWIW, AAPL would have closed above $300 long ago if not for 5 stock splits over the decades.

But your point is still valid about the company's continued execution, and the way it has rewarded shareholders.

And with that, I guess it's time to thank Smuggles (aka Heisey) again!

I sold about 2% of my Apple. Nom nom nom on profits.

Will it go higher? Yeah. probably, but sometimes you got to have to diversify/take profits. Someone has to buy Bezos' yacht afterall.

[Skatastrophy]

I'm surprised Apple is still around. 50% of their revenue is their phones and ~20% is their laptops/tablets. I assume they'll go the way of blackberry soon without any additional innovation. Seems like a stagnant company?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Though I think you are being facetious, in one way they really are stagnant: they really need a new mega product.

Problem is, what is big enough to move the needle? Airpods, if they were a standalone business, would be bigger than Netflix or Starbucks, so you really need something huge. But, if Airpods evolve into something that can do what glasses, e.g., Meta's glasses, then you could have a whole additional play into the whole Apple ecosystem.

[Jay Bee]

Though I think you are being facetious, in one way they really are stagnant: they really need a new mega product.

Problem is, what is big enough to move the needle? Airpods, if they were a standalone business, would be bigger than Netflix or Starbucks, so you really need something huge. But, if Airpods evolve into something that can do what glasses, e.g., Meta's glasses, then you could have a whole additional play into the whole Apple ecosystem.

VR pr0n maybe?? #IdeasGuy

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Can anyone guess what stocks Trump traded in the last week or so?

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/d-wave-rigetti-and-other-quantum-stocks-jump-as-trump-administration-doles-out-2-billion-in-exchange-for-equity-stakes-144923499.html

Let's see, we have:
* market manipulation
* insider trading
* personal enrichment
* massive misuse of public funds
* Socialism

But it is OK if you are in a cult and the leader does it.