Investing Thread

[Jay Bee]

That's the physical description of JB on the posters saying not to let him into the pickleball venue. Weird coincidence

None of that was a physical description, Depends boy.

[rocky_warrior]

SPY now down 2% year to date and only up 1% the last 6 months. Winning!

I mean, if history is your guide, that means buy!

[MU82]

I mean, if history is your guide, that means buy!

Definitely recent history. Regardless of valuations, "buy the dip" has always worked the last many years.

FWIW, I did buy some Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) today.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I mean, if history is your guide, that means buy!

I'd feel better about committing new money if there was a single positive economic indicator.

Consumer confidence: down
Jobs: net negative 3 of the last 4 months
Inflation: Persistent and edging up, even before the Iran fiasco
Consumer spending: holding up due only to the top 10% of income earners

I have been recently nibbling at a few BDCs and in the private credit market due to the turmoil there, but net I am still a seller while shifting to international markets and gold.

[Skatastrophy]

I'm still buying because there are enough doomers that it's unlikely there will big dips outside of black swan events. It's not like we're in a period of irrational exuberance that would cause a bubble. 

[Shaka Shart]

I don't envy people 60 and older trying to figure out their 401k strategy right now.

Sure theoretically the market goes up but given the current bonkers inputs does it go up in time?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I don't envy people 60 and older trying to figure out their 401k strategy right now.

Sure theoretically the market goes up but given the current bonkers inputs does it go up in time?

Sequence of return risk is very high for that cohort right now.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I'm still buying because there are enough doomers that it's unlikely there will big dips outside of black swan events. It's not like we're in a period of irrational exuberance that would cause a bubble.

The Shiller PE is still right about at its highest level since the dot com days