Investing Thread

[MU82]

Funny responses!

A few minutes ago. I got this email:


Earlier this morning, we sent an outdated tax planning email. Our apologies for any confusion that may have caused—we got a little ahead of (or behind) ourselves.

We plan to send an update next week with resources available to you on Vanguard's tax center, accessible online and through the mobile app.

Ha! Mistakes happen. I like the way they kinda poked fun at themselves.

[MU82]

From the Axios morning e-newsletter:

For the bottom 50%+ ... their income is up about 4% year-over-year before inflation, lower than the growth for their richer friends. But they're often burning through any increase to keep pace with inflation for food and energy.

If they don't own a house, rents are high. And the surging stock market does little for them. The bottom 50% of Americans own a measly 1% of all U.S. stocks.

When Nvidia or Microsoft adds $1 trillion in market cap, it does nothing for the bank accounts of half the country.

Roughly 40% of Americans couldn't cover a $400 emergency expense without debt.
So it's no wonder working-class or lower-income Americans are downbeat, and fear AI wiping away their jobs or making matters worse.

During the AI bounce of the past two years, the top 10% of households saw their wealth increase by $5 trillion in a single quarter (Q2 2025), while the bottom 50% saw a gain of just $150 billion.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I think once Powell's term ends, we can safely assume Trump will install as the new Fed chair someone that has pre-agreed to seriously and rapidly reduce interest rates.

Plan (invest) accordingly.

[Shaka Shart]

I think once Powell's term ends, we can safely assume Trump will install as the new Fed chair someone that has pre-agreed to seriously and rapidly reduce interest rates.

Plan (invest) accordingly.

Makes the bitching and prosecution on a short timeline of his remaining tenure seem self sabotaging.

But that assumes method to the madness

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Makes the bitching and prosecution on a short timeline of his remaining tenure seem self sabotaging.

But that assumes method to the madness

I think it's just more of the "do what I say or we'll prosecute you" thuggery, a warning to future Fed governors and everyone else as well.

Though to be honest, having Judge Box Wine or the lawyer from Baywatch attempt to prosecute is far more comedic than threatening.

[Skatastrophy]

I think it's just more of the "do what I say or we'll prosecute you" thuggery, a warning to future Fed governors and everyone else as well.

Though to be honest, having Judge Box Wine or the lawyer from Baywatch attempt to prosecute is far more comedic than threatening.

Yeah, it's the continued, across-the-board political violence to get everyone in line. Seems to be backfiring so far? I hope?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I think once Powell's term ends, we can safely assume Trump will install as the new Fed chair someone that has pre-agreed to seriously and rapidly reduce interest rates.

Plan (invest) accordingly.

There is some misinformation.  His chair position ends later this year but his term doesn't end until 2028.  Most often, chairs leave the Fed when chairmanship is up but he can decide to stay on as one of the governors until the end of the term as others have done in the past.  I don't believe he's said what he plans yet. 

[rocky_warrior]

I don't believe he's said what he plans yet. 

But at least you can gamble on it these days!  Chance of leaving dropping...
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxleavepowellgov/jerome-powell-leave-as-fed-governor/kxleavepowellgov-26aug01

[MU82]

There is some misinformation.  His chair position ends later this year but his term doesn't end until 2028.  Most often, chairs leave the Fed when chairmanship is up but he can decide to stay on as one of the governors until the end of the term as others have done in the past.  I don't believe he's said what he plans yet. 

Stay, please.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

There is some misinformation.  His chair position ends later this year but his term doesn't end until 2028.  Most often, chairs leave the Fed when chairmanship is up but he can decide to stay on as one of the governors until the end of the term as others have done in the past.  I don't believe he's said what he plans yet. 

I think there is a 99% chance he stays, which has increased since Trump's totally normal attempt to indict him.

But there will be a new ultra-dovish Chairman installed we will push for whatever Trump wants.

[Skatastrophy]

I think there is a 99% chance he stays, which has increased since Trump's totally normal attempt to indict him.

But there will be a new ultra-dovish Chairman installed we will push for whatever Trump wants.

The chairman doesn't matter so much, honestly. There's still a vote by the board. Normally, anyway.

[MU82]

Idiocracy thrashing the market today.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Terry Savage on WGN was pretty worked up and quite pessimistic about the economy. Pretty much blaming it on this administration's strategies re tariffs, Greenland, and NATO. Kind of unusual for her.

[Pakuni]

Terry Savage on WGN was pretty worked up and quite pessimistic about the economy. Pretty much blaming it on this administration's strategies re tariffs, Greenland, and NATO. Kind of unusual for her.

Hard to imagine that threatening a massive trade war with some of your closest allies because you didn't get a trophy would have negative consequences for the market.

[SoCalEagle]

Are there no leaders in America who can shut this silliness down, or are they all hairy wet cats? Really now, if I saw my country becoming the laughing stock of the world, and I had some power to prevent it, I would step up and do something about it.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Are there no leaders in America who can shut this silliness down, or are they all hairy wet cats? Really now, if I saw my country becoming the laughing stock of the world, and I had some power to prevent it, I would step up and do something about it.

They've had 4,362 chances and passed on them all. At some point you have to conclude they like it.

Gold continues to rocket. Not sure why my US Dollar Bear ETF is barely above breakeven, however.

[Jockey]

Are there no leaders in America who can shut this silliness down, or are they all hairy wet cats?
 

No. R's will follow trump off the cliff. NONE will stand up and be a profile in courage.

[cheebs09]

They've had 4,362 chances and passed on them all. At some point you have to conclude they like it.

Gold continues to rocket. Not sure why my US Dollar Bear ETF is barely above breakeven, however.

Hey! Some have expressed disappointment through a strongly worded email or disapproving facial expression!

[MUeng]

No. R's will follow trump off the cliff. NONE will stand up and be a profile in courage.

I think that can change at mid terms. Once he becomes a lame duck I got to think some Rs will want to protect their own career? But ya never know