Investing Thread

[MuggsyB]

Wow.  Massive day for the Dow. 

[Lennys Tap]

Predicting a sweep by the Rs.

[MU82]

UnitedHealth Group, which has been targeted by politicians on both sides of the aisle, is the largest company in the Dow. It went up 6.5% today after an earnings report that included beats on the top and bottom lines and good guidance. It had nothing to do with politics. Hell, if anything, it had a huge day despite political pressure from both sides. And when the #1 company goes up 6.5%, it helps lift the entire index.

Obviously, the Dow is only 30 companies. The broad market, as measured by the S&P 500, had a good but hardly eye-popping day, up 0.58%. It has had dozens and dozens and dozens of much bigger days this year, long before anybody was predicting anything about anything.

I assume you already know this, Lenny, but there aren't always macro reasons for the market to act as it does on any specific day. And I won't even go into the market doing better historically with D's in charge.

Or maybe you were just trolling; if so, cool.

[SoCalEagle]

Predicting a sweep by the Rs.

Nasdaq/S&P down big today. I guess the markets are predicting a sweep by the Rs.

[Lennys Tap]

Nasdaq/S&P down big today. I guess the markets are predicting a sweep by the Rs.

With the Dow up another 250 (1000 in 2 days). Big shift in what people think will lead the market. So yes.

[Hards Alumni]

With the Dow up another 250 (1000 in 2 days). Big shift in what people think will lead the market. So yes.

Let me let you in on a little secret.  The market doesn't care who is elected.

[Pakuni]

Let me let you in on a little secret.  The market doesn't care who is elected.

Yep.
Wall Street's needs will be prioritized either way.

[Skatastrophy]

With the Dow up another 250 (1000 in 2 days). Big shift in what people think will lead the market. So yes.

This is kinda goofy. It's not like DJIA is manufacturing companies anymore. The companies it tracks change all the time, and it is a dumb index that tells us nothing. The reason DJIA is brought up in the media is because it's an old recognized name, and because they have a big gaudy number next to it that goes up.

Biggest companies in the DJIA right now?

Apple
Microsoft
Amazon
JPM
Walmart
Visa
United Healthcare

After that, the next biggest company is less than 10% of the size of Apple.

[MuggsyB]

Sweet Jesus!  WTF happened to the Nasdaq today?????   I was about to cash out my portfolio and stack MU hoops for the next decade! 

[Skatastrophy]

Sweet Jesus!  WTF happened to the Nasdaq today?????   I was about to cash out my portfolio and stack MU hoops for the next decade! 

Both parties taking action and talking about Taiwan and chip restrictions. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/17/global-chip-stocks-from-nvidia-to-asml-fall-as-geopolitics-trump-weigh.html

Injected fear into the rapid AI growth play, and was further fueled by the rotation out of the recent big winners and into value.

[MU82]

With the Dow up another 250 (1000 in 2 days). Big shift in what people think will lead the market. So yes.

I am pretty sure you know how the markets actually work (and don't work), so again I'll say ... Nicely trolled!

[SoCalEagle]

With the Dow up another 250 (1000 in 2 days). Big shift in what people think will lead the market. So yes.

So what's your excuse for today (DOW down 500+)?

[reinko]

So what's your excuse for today (DOW down 500+)?

Obvi, news of Joe stepping down, and the either KH or one of the white guys from PA, KY, or CA waiting to take his place, decreases the odds for Orange Julius.  Very easy to understand.

[Skatastrophy]

The us market has fallen so much it's nearly back down to where it was 9 days ago. The humanity.

[SoCalEagle]

Obvi, news of Joe stepping down, and the either KH or one of the white guys from PA, KY, or CA waiting to take his place, decreases the odds for Orange Julius.  Very easy to understand.

Reinko, now I get it.  Thanks for providing clarity. 

[Shaka Shart]

Never thought about it like this but makes sense, need easier money laundering.

https://apnews.com/article/banking-esg-treasury-national-security-00984615e57dc14d72f04e6e61cc078b

[JWags85]

Never thought about it like this but makes sense, need easier money laundering.

https://apnews.com/article/banking-esg-treasury-national-security-00984615e57dc14d72f04e6e61cc078b

Has anyone seen a more in depth explanation as to why?  I'm not discounting it and agree that altering the structure of traditional banking can inhibit best practices from the Treasury Departments and others, but I don't see on the face how it automatically is a negative for investigations?  Is it saying they are no longer to say "oh we shouldn't lend/bank with XYZ due to shady connections or business holdings" cause now its just restricted to their financial viability?

The bill in question was all over the place.  Classic overkill.  Some stuff was good/fine (nuclear energy studies, removal of mandated "green lodging" for travel, electrical grid security) but then of course it had to float over into the culture war nonsense and attack terminology.

[MU82]

Disastrous earnings report for TSLA after the bell yesterday, shares down more than 12% as I write this.

Visa shares down a few percent despite a solid report; I added a little to my V position.

Great report yesterday from Lockheed Martin, by far the best of all defense stocks so far this cycle. Northrop reports tomorrow. I already have a ton of LMT but have been considering NOC.

[MUeng]

Disastrous earnings report for TSLA after the bell yesterday, shares down more than 12% as I write this.

Visa shares down a few percent despite a solid report; I added a little to my V position.

Great report yesterday from Lockheed Martin, by far the best of all defense stocks so far this cycle. Northrop reports tomorrow. I already have a ton of LMT but have been considering NOC.

why not RTX instead of NOC? More international exposure, less reliant on US gov't contracts. NOC isn't bad by any means, just very similar to LMT in many business areas.

[Herman Cain]

Has anyone seen a more in depth explanation as to why?  I'm not discounting it and agree that altering the structure of traditional banking can inhibit best practices from the Treasury Departments and others, but I don't see on the face how it automatically is a negative for investigations?  Is it saying they are no longer to say "oh we shouldn't lend/bank with XYZ due to shady connections or business holdings" cause now its just restricted to their financial viability?

The bill in question was all over the place.  Classic overkill.  Some stuff was good/fine (nuclear energy studies, removal of mandated "green lodging" for travel, electrical grid security) but then of course it had to float over into the culture war nonsense and attack terminology.

This letter from treasury was classic smoke screen. Make a broad generalization that sounds good to justify an unjustifiable position. 

ESG is just a trojan horse  to take over Financial and economic system. Thankfully we have politicians that see through  this  charade.

Banks have always had the ability to work with DEA. FBI , ATF etc when needed and non of the legislations impact that.

[SoCalEagle]

Disastrous earnings report for TSLA after the bell yesterday, shares down more than 12% as I write this.

Visa shares down a few percent despite a solid report; I added a little to my V position.

Great report yesterday from Lockheed Martin, by far the best of all defense stocks so far this cycle. Northrop reports tomorrow. I already have a ton of LMT but have been considering NOC.

MU82, great call on getting out of TSLA.  Down $25 today, which is over 10%. Talk about a falling rock.  LMT also looking good, probably more for the positive guidance than anything else.  Also, don't overlook LHX either.  They seem to be performing well through this cycle, cutting costs and growing earnings.   

[jficke13]

MU82, great call on getting out of TSLA.  Down $25 today, which is over 10%. Talk about a falling rock.  LMT also looking good, probably more for the positive guidance than anything else.  Also, don't overlook LHX either.  They seem to be performing well through this cycle, cutting costs and growing earnings.   

I thought for a while that the thing Tesla could be most transformative with, like truly revolutionary, would be to mainstream a distributed electrical grid via rooftop solar and powerwalls. I figured they could create a solid cash generation stream via the supercharger business to underpin all of their efforts, but what I didn't count on was both the apparent complete and total squandering of their 1st mover EV advantage and also that Elon Musk would prove to be deep into a King Lear phase with absolutely no mechanism of either reining him in or removing him.

There's no new vehicles coming down the development pike (roadster I'll believe when I see, and Cybertruck is a laughing stock). They've been banking exclusively on selling SAAS to increase their margins in a way that traditional automakers can't... except everyone is starting to see full self driving like it's a scam. Everyone who paid for it on the promise that they'll get it in the future was scammed, and although it's an *INCREDIBLE* way to create massive margins in an otherwise tight-margin-industry... I just don't see this gravy train continuing.

And Elon. Elon... Elon's attention is massively split between ostensibly running multiple massive companies. He's also publicly always online. Just posting his way on his journey into madness for all the world to see. (Maybe/probably also on lots drugs if those reports are to be believed, and... it scans). But doing things like going on a podcast with ragebait-purveyor and meat-diet-enthusiast Jordan Peterson to "declare war on the woke mind virus" is just more evidence that somewhere along the line Elon's brain got irrevocably broken by the culture war. How he doesn't see that "decaring war" on [well, let's be honest those words don't mean anything] in a way that seems tailor made to upset the types of people who are interested in buying EVs and supporting a political candidate who himself is campaigning on hamstringing the EV industry would be bad for TSLA is beyond me. He's just so insanely rich that he hasn't experienced anything like a normal human day in so long he no longer knows what reality is.

I'd say that's not a recipe for optimism at TSLA.

[Uncle Rico]

I thought for a while that the thing Tesla could be most transformative with, like truly revolutionary, would be to mainstream a distributed electrical grid via rooftop solar and powerwalls. I figured they could create a solid cash generation stream via the supercharger business to underpin all of their efforts, but what I didn't count on was both the apparent complete and total squandering of their 1st mover EV advantage and also that Elon Musk would prove to be deep into a King Lear phase with absolutely no mechanism of either reining him in or removing him.

There's no new vehicles coming down the development pike (roadster I'll believe when I see, and Cybertruck is a laughing stock). They've been banking exclusively on selling SAAS to increase their margins in a way that traditional automakers can't... except everyone is starting to see full self driving like it's a scam. Everyone who paid for it on the promise that they'll get it in the future was scammed, and although it's an *INCREDIBLE* way to create massive margins in an otherwise tight-margin-industry... I just don't see this gravy train continuing.

And Elon. Elon... Elon's attention is massively split between ostensibly running multiple massive companies. He's also publicly always online. Just posting his way on his journey into madness for all the world to see. (Maybe/probably also on lots drugs if those reports are to be believed, and... it scans). But doing things like going on a podcast with ragebait-purveyor and meat-diet-enthusiast Jordan Peterson to "declare war on the woke mind virus" is just more evidence that somewhere along the line Elon's brain got irrevocably broken by the culture war. How he doesn't see that "decaring war" on [well, let's be honest those words don't mean anything] in a way that seems tailor made to upset the types of people who are interested in buying EVs and supporting a political candidate who himself is campaigning on hamstringing the EV industry would be bad for TSLA is beyond me. He's just so insanely rich that he hasn't experienced anything like a normal human day in so long he no longer knows what reality is.

I'd say that's not a recipe for optimism at TSLA.

Go broke, fight woke

[MU82]

why not RTX instead of NOC? More international exposure, less reliant on US gov't contracts. NOC isn't bad by any means, just very similar to LMT in many business areas.

MU82, great call on getting out of TSLA.  Down $25 today, which is over 10%. Talk about a falling rock.  LMT also looking good, probably more for the positive guidance than anything else.  Also, don't overlook LHX either.  They seem to be performing well through this cycle, cutting costs and growing earnings.   

I already own RTX and LHX. Lots of the former and a decent amount of the latter. Both look ok valued here but I prefer getting em on "sale" when I can.

[Shaka Shart]

I thought for a while that the thing Tesla could be most transformative with, like truly revolutionary, would be to mainstream a distributed electrical grid via rooftop solar and powerwalls. I figured they could create a solid cash generation stream via the supercharger business to underpin all of their efforts, but what I didn't count on was both the apparent complete and total squandering of their 1st mover EV advantage and also that Elon Musk would prove to be deep into a King Lear phase with absolutely no mechanism of either reining him in or removing him.

There's no new vehicles coming down the development pike (roadster I'll believe when I see, and Cybertruck is a laughing stock). They've been banking exclusively on selling SAAS to increase their margins in a way that traditional automakers can't... except everyone is starting to see full self driving like it's a scam. Everyone who paid for it on the promise that they'll get it in the future was scammed, and although it's an *INCREDIBLE* way to create massive margins in an otherwise tight-margin-industry... I just don't see this gravy train continuing.

And Elon. Elon... Elon's attention is massively split between ostensibly running multiple massive companies. He's also publicly always online. Just posting his way on his journey into madness for all the world to see. (Maybe/probably also on lots drugs if those reports are to be believed, and... it scans). But doing things like going on a podcast with ragebait-purveyor and meat-diet-enthusiast Jordan Peterson to "declare war on the woke mind virus" is just more evidence that somewhere along the line Elon's brain got irrevocably broken by the culture war. How he doesn't see that "decaring war" on [well, let's be honest those words don't mean anything] in a way that seems tailor made to upset the types of people who are interested in buying EVs and supporting a political candidate who himself is campaigning on hamstringing the EV industry would be bad for TSLA is beyond me. He's just so insanely rich that he hasn't experienced anything like a normal human day in so long he no longer knows what reality is.

I'd say that's not a recipe for optimism at TSLA.

To quote Heisey, haters gonna hate!

I always thought their long term successes lay in battery storage. Could still be the case but there are so so many battery startups now.