Barttovik Preseason 2019-20

[Marcus92]

And another rash of "Wojo has the team on an upward trajectory" defense statements.

I get skepticism. Everybody's entitled to their opinions. I come to MU Scoop is to broaden my perspective on Marquette basketball -- not just to read viewpoints that agree with my own.

That said, your knee-jerk bashing of anything positive expressed about the program suggests a closed mind and defeatist attitude. What does another simplistic retort like the one above add to the discussion of Marquette basketball? There's nothing thought-provoking or insightful. It's rather predictable and tiresome, if you ask me.

My intent isn't to pick a fight. For someone who posts as often as you do -- and appears to be a big fan of MU hoops -- I just wish you had something more interesting to say.

[dgies9156]

I think that Marquette is being downgraded too much by a lot of people due to the Hauser departures and we will be better than projected. With that said, the large number of "ifs" that have appeared in Scoopers' comments about this season keep me from being really optimistic. With a much stronger BE, a 4th place finish projection is fair but a 3rd place finish is doable. I think we will have at least 20 wins and be in the Big Dance. If the ifs mostly come true Marquette will surprise a lot of people, including me. 

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

[Cheeks]

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

One poll, way way way way too early said 4th.  Another had us 9th, another 14th or thereabouts. 

I’m happy to be watching guys that want to be at MU, and especially happy to cheer on the Cancer as he shatter every MU scoring record.

[Uncle Rico]

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

How many Marquette teams since 2000 have had a legitimate national championship roster?

[Silkk the Shaka]

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

If the over/under was actually set at 18 regular season wins, I would absolutely hammer the over

[tower912]

There was a time when a preseason prediction lower than expected would be a cause for whining, outrage, and a 'it will be so sweet when MU exceeds expectations' attitude.

This year, a preseason prediction less than expected, and people actually buy in to the prediction and  a sense of resignation.

[Lennys Tap]

How many Marquette teams since 2000 have had a legitimate national championship roster?

Marquette's last legitimate national championship roster was 1978, Hank's first year. Lots of good ones since then, one borderline great - none legit national championship caliber.

[WhiteTrash]

If the over/under was actually set at 18 regular season wins, I would absolutely hammer the over

I would too. 18-10 would be a very disappointing regular season. The Wojo debate would rage on without a doubt and that would stink.

Sign me up for 21-7 and better days on Scoop!

[Uncle Rico]

Marquette's last legitimate national championship roster was 1978, Hank's first year. Lots of good ones since then, one borderline great - none legit national championship caliber.

I think that’s an accurate assessment

[Cheeks]

I think that’s an accurate assessment

And we lost to Miami (OH) and folks want to blame a bad call as the reason.  One of the biggest upsets in tournament history prior to seeding era.

[MU82]

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

Meh. Both were predictions. Neither matter a hoot.

[dgies9156]

And we lost to Miami (OH) and folks want to blame a bad call as the reason.  One of the biggest upsets in tournament history prior to seeding era.

Agree.

Folks, I recognize that the 18-10 is but one prediction. Probably not a whole lot more meaningful than me saying we'll be as good as we were in 1975-1976.

What I do feel is that at 18-10 and limping into the NCAA, I'll be disappointed. We're five years into a coach whose pedigree is Duke and who promised a team we can be proud of. I want him to be successful. I want us back to where we were way back when and I don't think any of that is unreasonable, including the successful coach part.

Perhaps what concerns me is we have one of the best players ever to play for Marquette University in Markus. We built and rebuilt to the point that with senior leadership this year, we expect this year to be something special. Maybe I'm too much of an old timer, but 18-10 and fourth in the conference is definitely not something special.

Practice really hasn't gone full tilt yet and so any predictions now are a crapshoot. I'm tired of sweating out selection Sunday. I'm looking forward to great things this year and hope we accomplish them. As fans and as our team!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Just note the second and third Orlando games are not predicted yet, pending those outcomes.

[Herman Cain]

These statistics based analysis have some general merit . However , I think this is a year for MU where other factors come in to play.

I am confident in Brendan and Jamal’s ability to bring a much different style of play that will be needed this year. They are going to get consistent minutes and that will show in their production.

Also Markus will get more ,and better ,shots now that he doesn’t have to deal with those pesky Hauser brothers. We want Markus to have a season for the ages.

Ed and Greg should be healthy and it appears from all reports that Jayce brings some value in excess of what Matt brought.

So overall we will have a more cohesive and athletic squad that will be able to compete well in conference and in the tournament. I am looking for Markus to get hot in March and for good things to happen.

[brewcity77]

Putting stock in a preseason record prediction from a computer metric is being, very generously, incredibly silly. I'm going to assume none of you have ever looked at kenpom or similar sites before the season starts.

[Nukem2]

Putting stock in a preseason record prediction from a computer metric is being, very generously, incredibly silly. I'm going to assume none of you have ever looked at kenpom or similar sites before the season starts.

Yep, none of it starts to make sense until December, even then....

[Dr. Blackheart]

Putting stock in a preseason record prediction from a computer metric is being, very generously, incredibly silly. I'm going to assume none of you have ever looked at kenpom or similar sites before the season starts.

All pre-season polls and predictions are silly but they ready us for the approaching season as start the discussion. The writers and the coaches pills are even sillier, as are most of the recent threads on Scoop.

[brewcity77]

All pre-season polls and predictions are silly but they ready us for the approaching season as start the discussion. The writers and the coaches pills are even sillier, as are most of the recent threads on Scoop.

I think there's value in metrics and stuff, but all the metric record predictions always tend toward the middle. Look at Torvik's Big East Conference predictions. 4 teams at 11-7, 3 more at 10-8. It's silly to get worked up about what we will do if Wojo finishes the season with an impossible 18-10 record.

Or look higher up. North Carolina is 5th in the country and predicted to go 21-8. Number 10 Baylor picked up go 19-9. Again, silly to read anything into metric predictions in September.

[JakeBarnes]

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

Thank god they dont play the games anymore.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I think there's value in metrics and stuff, but all the metric record predictions always tend toward the middle. Look at Torvik's Big East Conference predictions. 4 teams at 11-7, 3 more at 10-8. It's silly to get worked up about what we will do if Wojo finishes the season with an impossible 18-10 record.

Or look higher up. North Carolina is 5th in the country and predicted to go 21-8. Number 10 Baylor picked up go 19-9. Again, silly to read anything into metric predictions in September.

I look more at the rank preseason/OOC and the projected wins for Big East. I think MU has a better chance of winning the BE, especially winning the BET with the roster depth, than finishing sixth (which I saw in some poll). Fourth would be a big meh for me.

As I have been saying, November is a big month for MU on the court and on signing day. The Orlando tournament is a great field, plus Purdue and Bucky. Scoop will be busy.

[rocket surgeon]

What a downer.

If this bears out, we have a problem in our program. A senior led team, lots of experience and 18-10.

Likely would be another trip to the Not Invited Tournament.

  we just have to prove the computer wrong and have a better year than his dell. 

   surprised to see duke ranked so low with all their projected talent.  i know, they are young, but how many are projected to be nba ready?

[Marcus92]

I wonder how T-Rank derives its projected defensive ranking for Marquette.

Last season's team was ranked #47 defensively. We lost four players: Sam (at best the team's fifth best defender after Theo, Sacar, Ed and Brendan), Joey (easily our worst defender), Joseph Chartouny (who played a limited role off the bench) and Matt (who wasn't part of the regular rotation).

And we add Jayce Johnson (a better defensive rebounder and shot blocker than Sam or Joey), Koby McEwen (a big, athletic guard who looks to be a clear upgrade to Chartouny), two more big, athletic guards in Symir Torrence and Dexter Akanno, plus the return of Greg Elliott (a long, athletic guard). That doesn't take into account any defensive improvement by returning players.

Yet T-Rank projects MU's defensive ranking to fall to #60.

Maybe it's that Koby, Greg, Symir and Dexter are relative unknowns -- and the system assigns little value to their defense without more to go on. But we made a huge jump last season. And the new roster seems to be far stronger on the defensive end.

If the #60 defensive ranking turns out to be closer to #25, Marquette could be challenging Villanova for a Big East title once again.

[brewcity77]

Yet T-Rank projects MU's defensive ranking to fall to #60.

Maybe it's that Koby, Greg, Symir and Dexter are relative unknowns -- and the system assigns little value to their defense without more to go on. But we made a huge jump last season. And the new roster seems to be far stronger on the defensive end.

If the #60 defensive ranking turns out to be closer to #25, Marquette could be challenging Villanova for a Big East title once again.

I do think his metrics, especially defensively, are heavily skewed toward the previous season. K-State lost three starters and their defense went from 4th to 8th. Virginia lost three starters to the draft and their defense is still ranked 1st. On the other end, Purdue lost 3 starters that accounted for more than 60% of their scoring and their offense only dropped from 4th to 5th. I'm sure other stuff factors in (see Providence) but there is a lot of recency bias.

[real chili 83]

ND sucks.

[MuMark]

I think that part of the projections are the history of the coach. Bruce Weber at KSU has had good to great defensive teams year in and year out for the last 5 years minimum. 30 was his worst season.......so my guess is he starts with a baseline for them and adjusts from there.


Ditto for MU......last season was the first decent defensive team that Wojo has had.....so his preseason projection probably is impacted by that........if they are good again this season that will impact next years projection.

on the other hand....Wojo has had excellent offensive teams.......so although it would appear that this years team may not be as strong on that end the projection gives the benefit of the doubt to the system and gives them a higher preseason rank then we might think they deserve.

In the end none of it means much since at the end of the day the data will drive the rankings as the season progresses........some teams will be artificially high or low for awhile because of their preseason numbers but by the time it matters the preseason projections will be gone and the rankings will be all based on current data.