Barttovik Preseason 2019-20

[Dr. Blackheart]

MU checks in at #30 and fourth in the Big East. 17th best offense and 60th rated defense. 18-10 record.
Personally, I would be disappointed in that record, but not surprised he is predicting that. I think MU’s defense will be much, much better than that and the offense slightly less efficient.

Bucky at 26 and ND at 22?

KPom not out yet.

http://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

[brewcity77]

He's been tweaking those for awhile. The one that surprises me is Purdue, who checks in at #7. I don't think they're close to that. After losing the vast majority of their offense (Edwards, Cline, and Eifert) I don't see any way they have a top-5 offense.

I think Torvik's rankings are relying too much on past performance and not taking enough into account for departures. Whether it's not accounting for Marquette losing the Hausers, Purdue losing everyone who can score, or whatever, that part of his metric needs to be tweaked.

[Dr. Blackheart]

He's been tweaking those for awhile. The one that surprises me is Purdue, who checks in at #7. I don't think they're close to that. After losing the vast majority of their offense (Edwards, Cline, and Eifert) I don't see any way they have a top-5 offense.

I think Torvik's rankings are relying too much on past performance and not taking enough into account for departures. Whether it's not accounting for Marquette losing the Hausers, Purdue losing everyone who can score, or whatever, that part of his metric needs to be tweaked.

So where do you peg us Brew? 

[brewcity77]

So where do you peg us Brew?

I think about what you're saying. I think the offense isn't quite that good, probably overrated due to the Hausers, but I think the defense is significantly better. I'm sure some would call me crazy, but I think this is a top 10-15 range defense. When John goes out, we still have rim protection, we have quicker defenders on the perimeter, we have more ability to generate turnovers, and we don't have Joey. Looking at his current rankings, the two teams that I think (strictly rankings wise) mimic what I expect of us are #9 VCU and #20 Penn State. Somewhere in the middle of that.

Though if McEwen and the rest of the developing players can mostly offset the loss of the Hausers on offense, I think we're probably closer to where we thought we were for that magical weekend between Howard's return and the Hausers' transfer.

[genious expert]

MU checks in at #30 and fourth in the Big East. 17th best offense and 60th rated defense. 18-10 record.
Personally, I would be disappointed in that record, but not surprised he is predicting that. I think MU’s defense will be much, much better than that and the offense slightly less efficient.

Bucky at 26 and ND at 22?

KPom not out yet.

http://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

His Badger projections are always laughable. I mean he is a Badger fan though so I get it. I’d be the same way with MU if it was my site. If you click the teams you can see the breakdown by player to see how he got to these rankings.

[Shooter McGavin]

ND that high?  Where the f do they get this stuff from?  Brey is good but Phleuger (sp?) isn’t that valuable.   I would take MU over ND in a heart beat this year and I’m not that high on MU.

[Uncle Rico]

His system is pretty good.  It’s projective based on returning data.  A team like Wisconsin is a year older in a lot of places and so is Marquette, even with the losses.  There is an expectation of improvement on players, especially ones becoming upperclassmen. 

Glancing quickly at Purdue, Haarms and Eastern will be a potent 1-2, I don’t dismiss them but his projections are expecting a lot from some guys moving from low majors to Big Ten play.

His rankings really like Florida.  Florida was a top ten team in his rankings well into the new year this past season even as the wins and losses didn’t match the profile.

Quick note on Wisconsin and the analytics world, they’ll always be in the top tier because of low possessions and the proclivity to blow out cupcakes

[MuMark]

His Badger projections are always laughable. I mean he is a Badger fan though so I get it. I’d be the same way with MU if it was my site. If you click the teams you can see the breakdown by player to see how he got to these rankings.

His Badger fandom has nothing to do with his projection.......it's a computer program.

Pomeroy usually has the Badgers projected high as well........sometimes they end up there......sometimes they don't.

[WhiteTrash]

How far down a Google search hole do you have to go to find barttovik? Not trying to be a smart ass, is this a real thing or a 'kid living in mom & dad's basement'?

[MuMark]

How far down a Google search hole do you have to go to find barttovik? Not trying to be a smart ass, is this a real thing or a 'kid living in mom & dad's basement'?

It's a real thing.... .one of the best sites there is

http://www.barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

[brewcity77]

How far down a Google search hole do you have to go to find barttovik? Not trying to be a smart ass, is this a real thing or a 'kid living in mom & dad's basement'?

If you follow college basketball...not really far at all. It's a really solid site that has some nice features other pay sites (like Pomeroy) are lacking.

[WhiteTrash]

If you follow college basketball...not really far at all. It's a really solid site that has some nice features other pay sites (like Pomeroy) are lacking.

Fair enough. Have heard of Pomeroy never Barttovik. I consider myself a big CBB fan and have many friends who follow the sport closely, but this is new to me.

Just to see how how unplugged I am, I did a Google search on college basketball rankings, Barttovik did not appear in the first 10 pages so I stopped. I feel a little better.

I don't want to imply Google status confers legitimacy, so I believe you guys this is a good site. (just a bit off the radar?)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Barttovik is one of the best sites out there. You can check their preseason rankings from past years and you will find that they are among the most accurate out there if not the most accurate.  I will say though, they always throw out a couple of off the wall predictions every year. Sometimes they are wrong....but there have been many times when they've been right. Last year, I thought Louisville would be lucky to make the NIT. Bartovik said they were top 20. Louisville ended up being top 25 in KenPom and was in and out of the top 25 all year.

This year, I see few off the wall predictions. Purdue at 7, Mizzou at 12, Illinois at 15, Harvard at 18 (they're one of the top 2 low majors but that's crazy high), Notre Dame at 22 (honestly the wildest of all IMHO), Providence at at 23. The thing is though, I bet they end being more accurate on most of these than I am.

[MarquetteDano]

Seven BE in Top 50. Going to be a lot tougher conf slate this season.

[dgies9156]

MU checks in at #30 and fourth in the Big East. 17th best offense and 60th rated defense. 18-10 record.

What a downer.

If this bears out, we have a problem in our program. A senior led team, lots of experience and 18-10.

Likely would be another trip to the Not Invited Tournament.

[Boston Warrior]

If you go into their similar resume or similar profile, they project Marquette to be a 6 seed and most or all  the comparisons made the tournament so it’s not all doom and gloom.

[Milkshakes]

I am no expert. However #25-30, 4th in the BE and 18-10 give or take a game. Sounds just about right to me. The BE is better this year and we are right about the same (hopefully).  I am still not convinced we have made up for the loss of Sam.

[Nukem2]

I am no expert. However #25-30, 4th in the BE and 18-10 give or take a game. Sounds just about right to me. The BE is better this year and we are right about the same (hopefully).  I am still not convinced we have made up for the loss of Sam.

We won’t replace Sam by any stretch of the imagination.  We’ll simply be different, fbow. 

[IrwinFletcher]

Read somewhere that last year, Purdue made 311 3-pointers.  Returning players made 7 (ish) of those 311.  Crazy number as they lost a ton from last season.

[MU82]

How has his system predicted results in past seasons?

If they've done so with some degree of accuracy, maybe (but unlikely), I'll give this a shred of credence.

If not ... Eat my shorts, Barttovik Simpsontovik.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Historically, seems somewhat consistent with KPom MU.

19 - 37 v 33 (B v K)
18 - 42 v 53
17 - 30 v 32
16 - 73 v 97
15 - 83 v 93
14 - 62 v 68

[Cheeks]

Fair enough. Have heard of Pomeroy never Barttovik. I consider myself a big CBB fan and have many friends who follow the sport closely, but this is new to me.

Just to see how how unplugged I am, I did a Google search on college basketball rankings, Barttovik did not appear in the first 10 pages so I stopped. I feel a little better.

I don't want to imply Google status confers legitimacy, so I believe you guys this is a good site. (just a bit off the radar?)

There are about 20 or so of these ratings.  I used to aggregate them all years ago here.

Many of them are here...top of the page


https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

[Cheeks]

What a downer.

If this bears out, we have a problem in our program. A senior led team, lots of experience and 18-10.

Likely would be another trip to the Not Invited Tournament.

If it is right, we go to NCAA again.  11-7 in conf, that is punching a ticket

[willie warrior]

What a downer.

If this bears out, we have a problem in our program. A senior led team, lots of experience and 18-10.

Likely would be another trip to the Not Invited Tournament.

And another rash of "Wojo has the team on an upward trajectory" defense statements.

[Scoop Snoop]

What a downer.

If this bears out, we have a problem in our program. A senior led team, lots of experience and 18-10.

Likely would be another trip to the Not Invited Tournament.

I think that Marquette is being downgraded too much by a lot of people due to the Hauser departures and we will be better than projected. With that said, the large number of "ifs" that have appeared in Scoopers' comments about this season keep me from being really optimistic. With a much stronger BE, a 4th place finish projection is fair but a 3rd place finish is doable. I think we will have at least 20 wins and be in the Big Dance. If the ifs mostly come true Marquette will surprise a lot of people, including me. 

[Marcus92]

And another rash of "Wojo has the team on an upward trajectory" defense statements.

I get skepticism. Everybody's entitled to their opinions. I come to MU Scoop is to broaden my perspective on Marquette basketball -- not just to read viewpoints that agree with my own.

That said, your knee-jerk bashing of anything positive expressed about the program suggests a closed mind and defeatist attitude. What does another simplistic retort like the one above add to the discussion of Marquette basketball? There's nothing thought-provoking or insightful. It's rather predictable and tiresome, if you ask me.

My intent isn't to pick a fight. For someone who posts as often as you do -- and appears to be a big fan of MU hoops -- I just wish you had something more interesting to say.

[dgies9156]

I think that Marquette is being downgraded too much by a lot of people due to the Hauser departures and we will be better than projected. With that said, the large number of "ifs" that have appeared in Scoopers' comments about this season keep me from being really optimistic. With a much stronger BE, a 4th place finish projection is fair but a 3rd place finish is doable. I think we will have at least 20 wins and be in the Big Dance. If the ifs mostly come true Marquette will surprise a lot of people, including me. 

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

[Cheeks]

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

One poll, way way way way too early said 4th.  Another had us 9th, another 14th or thereabouts. 

I’m happy to be watching guys that want to be at MU, and especially happy to cheer on the Cancer as he shatter every MU scoring record.

[Uncle Rico]

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

How many Marquette teams since 2000 have had a legitimate national championship roster?

[Silkk the Shaka]

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

If the over/under was actually set at 18 regular season wins, I would absolutely hammer the over

[tower912]

There was a time when a preseason prediction lower than expected would be a cause for whining, outrage, and a 'it will be so sweet when MU exceeds expectations' attitude.

This year, a preseason prediction less than expected, and people actually buy in to the prediction and  a sense of resignation.

[Lennys Tap]

How many Marquette teams since 2000 have had a legitimate national championship roster?

Marquette's last legitimate national championship roster was 1978, Hank's first year. Lots of good ones since then, one borderline great - none legit national championship caliber.

[WhiteTrash]

If the over/under was actually set at 18 regular season wins, I would absolutely hammer the over

I would too. 18-10 would be a very disappointing regular season. The Wojo debate would rage on without a doubt and that would stink.

Sign me up for 21-7 and better days on Scoop!

[Uncle Rico]

Marquette's last legitimate national championship roster was 1978, Hank's first year. Lots of good ones since then, one borderline great - none legit national championship caliber.

I think that’s an accurate assessment

[Cheeks]

I think that’s an accurate assessment

And we lost to Miami (OH) and folks want to blame a bad call as the reason.  One of the biggest upsets in tournament history prior to seeding era.

[MU82]

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

Meh. Both were predictions. Neither matter a hoot.

[dgies9156]

And we lost to Miami (OH) and folks want to blame a bad call as the reason.  One of the biggest upsets in tournament history prior to seeding era.

Agree.

Folks, I recognize that the 18-10 is but one prediction. Probably not a whole lot more meaningful than me saying we'll be as good as we were in 1975-1976.

What I do feel is that at 18-10 and limping into the NCAA, I'll be disappointed. We're five years into a coach whose pedigree is Duke and who promised a team we can be proud of. I want him to be successful. I want us back to where we were way back when and I don't think any of that is unreasonable, including the successful coach part.

Perhaps what concerns me is we have one of the best players ever to play for Marquette University in Markus. We built and rebuilt to the point that with senior leadership this year, we expect this year to be something special. Maybe I'm too much of an old timer, but 18-10 and fourth in the conference is definitely not something special.

Practice really hasn't gone full tilt yet and so any predictions now are a crapshoot. I'm tired of sweating out selection Sunday. I'm looking forward to great things this year and hope we accomplish them. As fans and as our team!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Just note the second and third Orlando games are not predicted yet, pending those outcomes.

[Herman Cain]

These statistics based analysis have some general merit . However , I think this is a year for MU where other factors come in to play.

I am confident in Brendan and Jamal’s ability to bring a much different style of play that will be needed this year. They are going to get consistent minutes and that will show in their production.

Also Markus will get more ,and better ,shots now that he doesn’t have to deal with those pesky Hauser brothers. We want Markus to have a season for the ages.

Ed and Greg should be healthy and it appears from all reports that Jayce brings some value in excess of what Matt brought.

So overall we will have a more cohesive and athletic squad that will be able to compete well in conference and in the tournament. I am looking for Markus to get hot in March and for good things to happen.

[brewcity77]

Putting stock in a preseason record prediction from a computer metric is being, very generously, incredibly silly. I'm going to assume none of you have ever looked at kenpom or similar sites before the season starts.

[Nukem2]

Putting stock in a preseason record prediction from a computer metric is being, very generously, incredibly silly. I'm going to assume none of you have ever looked at kenpom or similar sites before the season starts.

Yep, none of it starts to make sense until December, even then....

[Dr. Blackheart]

Putting stock in a preseason record prediction from a computer metric is being, very generously, incredibly silly. I'm going to assume none of you have ever looked at kenpom or similar sites before the season starts.

All pre-season polls and predictions are silly but they ready us for the approaching season as start the discussion. The writers and the coaches pills are even sillier, as are most of the recent threads on Scoop.

[brewcity77]

All pre-season polls and predictions are silly but they ready us for the approaching season as start the discussion. The writers and the coaches pills are even sillier, as are most of the recent threads on Scoop.

I think there's value in metrics and stuff, but all the metric record predictions always tend toward the middle. Look at Torvik's Big East Conference predictions. 4 teams at 11-7, 3 more at 10-8. It's silly to get worked up about what we will do if Wojo finishes the season with an impossible 18-10 record.

Or look higher up. North Carolina is 5th in the country and predicted to go 21-8. Number 10 Baylor picked up go 19-9. Again, silly to read anything into metric predictions in September.

[JakeBarnes]

Before Hausershima, we were ranked fourth in the nation. That may have been a bit much given the nonsense we put up with Murray State, but we were going to be very good and worthy of national attention.

Fourth in the Big East, 18-10 overall, eeennnnhhhh. What a fall. That's a huge step down.

Not what we were hoping for given what we were building. Tired of excuses -- want a competitive schedule with a 23+ win record and a decent shot at an NCAA Championship.

Thank god they dont play the games anymore.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I think there's value in metrics and stuff, but all the metric record predictions always tend toward the middle. Look at Torvik's Big East Conference predictions. 4 teams at 11-7, 3 more at 10-8. It's silly to get worked up about what we will do if Wojo finishes the season with an impossible 18-10 record.

Or look higher up. North Carolina is 5th in the country and predicted to go 21-8. Number 10 Baylor picked up go 19-9. Again, silly to read anything into metric predictions in September.

I look more at the rank preseason/OOC and the projected wins for Big East. I think MU has a better chance of winning the BE, especially winning the BET with the roster depth, than finishing sixth (which I saw in some poll). Fourth would be a big meh for me.

As I have been saying, November is a big month for MU on the court and on signing day. The Orlando tournament is a great field, plus Purdue and Bucky. Scoop will be busy.

[rocket surgeon]

What a downer.

If this bears out, we have a problem in our program. A senior led team, lots of experience and 18-10.

Likely would be another trip to the Not Invited Tournament.

  we just have to prove the computer wrong and have a better year than his dell. 

   surprised to see duke ranked so low with all their projected talent.  i know, they are young, but how many are projected to be nba ready?

[Marcus92]

I wonder how T-Rank derives its projected defensive ranking for Marquette.

Last season's team was ranked #47 defensively. We lost four players: Sam (at best the team's fifth best defender after Theo, Sacar, Ed and Brendan), Joey (easily our worst defender), Joseph Chartouny (who played a limited role off the bench) and Matt (who wasn't part of the regular rotation).

And we add Jayce Johnson (a better defensive rebounder and shot blocker than Sam or Joey), Koby McEwen (a big, athletic guard who looks to be a clear upgrade to Chartouny), two more big, athletic guards in Symir Torrence and Dexter Akanno, plus the return of Greg Elliott (a long, athletic guard). That doesn't take into account any defensive improvement by returning players.

Yet T-Rank projects MU's defensive ranking to fall to #60.

Maybe it's that Koby, Greg, Symir and Dexter are relative unknowns -- and the system assigns little value to their defense without more to go on. But we made a huge jump last season. And the new roster seems to be far stronger on the defensive end.

If the #60 defensive ranking turns out to be closer to #25, Marquette could be challenging Villanova for a Big East title once again.

[brewcity77]

Yet T-Rank projects MU's defensive ranking to fall to #60.

Maybe it's that Koby, Greg, Symir and Dexter are relative unknowns -- and the system assigns little value to their defense without more to go on. But we made a huge jump last season. And the new roster seems to be far stronger on the defensive end.

If the #60 defensive ranking turns out to be closer to #25, Marquette could be challenging Villanova for a Big East title once again.

I do think his metrics, especially defensively, are heavily skewed toward the previous season. K-State lost three starters and their defense went from 4th to 8th. Virginia lost three starters to the draft and their defense is still ranked 1st. On the other end, Purdue lost 3 starters that accounted for more than 60% of their scoring and their offense only dropped from 4th to 5th. I'm sure other stuff factors in (see Providence) but there is a lot of recency bias.

[real chili 83]

ND sucks.

[MuMark]

I think that part of the projections are the history of the coach. Bruce Weber at KSU has had good to great defensive teams year in and year out for the last 5 years minimum. 30 was his worst season.......so my guess is he starts with a baseline for them and adjusts from there.


Ditto for MU......last season was the first decent defensive team that Wojo has had.....so his preseason projection probably is impacted by that........if they are good again this season that will impact next years projection.

on the other hand....Wojo has had excellent offensive teams.......so although it would appear that this years team may not be as strong on that end the projection gives the benefit of the doubt to the system and gives them a higher preseason rank then we might think they deserve.

In the end none of it means much since at the end of the day the data will drive the rankings as the season progresses........some teams will be artificially high or low for awhile because of their preseason numbers but by the time it matters the preseason projections will be gone and the rankings will be all based on current data.

[MU82]

In the end none of it means much

Well, I certainly agree with this!

[IrwinFletcher]

I wonder how T-Rank derives its projected defensive ranking for Marquette.

Last season's team was ranked #47 defensively. We lost four players: Sam (at best the team's fifth best defender after Theo, Sacar, Ed and Brendan), Joey (easily our worst defender), Joseph Chartouny (who played a limited role off the bench) and Matt (who wasn't part of the regular rotation).

And we add Jayce Johnson (a better defensive rebounder and shot blocker than Sam or Joey), Koby McEwen (a big, athletic guard who looks to be a clear upgrade to Chartouny), two more big, athletic guards in Symir Torrence and Dexter Akanno, plus the return of Greg Elliott (a long, athletic guard). That doesn't take into account any defensive improvement by returning players.

Yet T-Rank projects MU's defensive ranking to fall to #60.

Maybe it's that Koby, Greg, Symir and Dexter are relative unknowns -- and the system assigns little value to their defense without more to go on. But we made a huge jump last season. And the new roster seems to be far stronger on the defensive end.

If the #60 defensive ranking turns out to be closer to #25, Marquette could be challenging Villanova for a Big East title once again.

I would argue your point about Sam being, at best, the 5th best defender.  Sam may have been slow of foot, but he was smart, savvy and one of our best defensive rebounders.  Certainly way better than Bailey and if you look at the foul issues Theo had, he might be better than he was.

I do agree with your overall premise, however, that I would anticipate that we will be ranked higher than 60 on the defensive side of the ball.

[tower912]

I would argue your point about Sam being, at best, the 5th best defender.  Sam may have been slow of foot, but he was smart, savvy and one of our best defensive rebounders.  Certainly way better than Bailey and if you look at the foul issues Theo had, he might be better than he was.

I do agree with your overall premise, however, that I would anticipate that we will be ranked higher than 60 on the defensive side of the ball.

Bailey may have been the second best on-ball defender on the team, behind Sacar.    Sam was certainly a better defensive rebounder.     I have a clear image going back to November of Bailey guarding an opposing PG and picking him clean in the middle of the floor.    I can't remember having an on-ball defender who did that since Vander.     Bailey was who got put on Akinjo and McClung in DC.     Ja was too quick for him.    Ja was too quick for everybody.     But Bailey, having sat out two years, made himself invaluable defensively.   I look forward to seeing his improvement after an offseason in the weight room and in the gym. 

[MarquetteDano]

Bailey may have been the second best on-ball defender on the team, behind Sacar.    Sam was certainly a better defensive rebounder.     I have a clear image going back to November of Bailey guarding an opposing PG and picking him clean in the middle of the floor.    I can't remember having an on-ball defender who did that since Vander.     Bailey was who got put on Akinjo and McClung in DC.     Ja was too quick for him.    Ja was too quick for everybody.     But Bailey, having sat out two years, made himself invaluable defensively.   I look forward to seeing his improvement after an offseason in the weight room and in the gym.

As you stated the defensive rebounding is the issue.  Yes with potentially two bigs in the game at once it does not matter as much.  But when we have one big in the game (which I will assume will still be the majority of time) the forwards need to rebound and Bailey had trouble with that last year.  The biggest area he needs to improve defensively.