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Author Topic: A macro view of P6 coaches  (Read 8810 times)

Marcus92

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #50 on: June 12, 2019, 05:22:26 PM »
Eventually, I want to see Marquette get to the level of a school like Villanova -- which lost 4 players to the NBA after taking home the national championship and still won the Big East the next year. Big-time programs reload more than rebuild.
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WhiteTrash

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #51 on: June 12, 2019, 08:36:43 PM »
How in the world are you going to call my post a straw man in one sentence and the follow it with the bolded in the very next sentence? Lol
GREAT! Let's all stop using straw man arguments. Agreed?

MU82

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #52 on: June 12, 2019, 10:37:46 PM »
Marcus:

Interesting study that has produced an interesting comment stream. Nicely done.
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #53 on: June 12, 2019, 11:28:14 PM »
Chicos said 5 years. I spent some time crunching numbers after this season and determined that number, which was someone else's, was inadequate. 10-15 is far more reasonable if your aspiration is, like mine, to win a national championship.

As far as I'm concerned, any aspiration less than that is inadequate. While Sweet 16s and Elite 8s are fun, they really don't mean anything in the long run. Maybe an indicator you're on the right path, but no one outside your program will give a rat's ass about your second weekend run six years ago.

In over 100 years of MU basketball, there has been one, yes one, coach who lasted more than 10 years. And, he was sub-500.

Worst yet, he was a Fradger.

brewcity77

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #54 on: June 12, 2019, 11:40:32 PM »
In over 100 years of MU basketball, there has been one, yes one, coach who lasted more than 10 years. And, he was sub-500.

Worst yet, he was a Fradger.

Two. Al also lasted more than 10 years.

That's why I feel either an alumni or an experienced coach is the way to go in the future. But for now, hope Wojo is the guy and sticks.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #55 on: June 13, 2019, 12:03:44 AM »
Two. Al also lasted more than 10 years.

That's why I feel either an alumni or an experienced coach is the way to go in the future. But for now, hope Wojo is the guy and sticks.

Sorry. Obviously he did. Bad mistake. I meant 15. 

Crapshoot? 

MUMonster03

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #56 on: June 13, 2019, 04:52:05 AM »
Beard and Izzo are major outliers when you look at championship level successful coaches. Looking at the coaches below one of the things that has hindered Marquette recently is we hire first time coaches and none of them have stayed/been allowed to stay long enough to hit the successful window.

Also lets remember Creann made it to a FF in year 4 and has never been back, so the jury may still be out on Beard.

Coach K - 5 years at Army, First FF 6th year at Duke, 11 years total coaching, Championship in year 16 (11th at Duke)
Calhoun - 14 years at Northeastern, First FF 13th Year at UConn, 27 years coaching, Championship in year 27 (13th at UConn)
Knight - 6 years at Army, First FF 2nd year at IU, 8 years coaching, Championship in year 11 (5th at IU)
Wooden - 2 years Indiana St, First FF 14th year at UCLA, 16 years coaching, Championship in year 18 (16th at UCLA)
Wright - 7 years at Hofstra, First FF 8th year at Nova, 15 years coaching, Championship in year 22 (15th at Nova)
Self - 10 years at Oral Roberts, Tulsa, and Illinois, First FF 5th year at Kansas, 15 years coaching, Championship in year 15 (5th at Kansas)
Olsen - 10 years LBS and Iowa, First FF 6th year at Iowa, 7 years coaching, Championship in year 24 (14th at Arizona)

Pitino and Calipari who moved around a lot reached FF but still took awhile to win a championship
Pitino - First FF in 2nd year at Providence (7th overall) Championship in 14th year (7th at Kentucky)
Calipari - First FF in 8th year at UMASS, Championship in 20th year (3rd at Kentucky)

And last but not least
Al - 7 years at Belmont Abbey, First FF 10th year at MU, 17 years coaching, Championship in year 20 (13th at MU)

Since 1980 only 6 coaches have won a National Championship without at least 10 years of head coaching experience.
Crum 9th year
Brown 7th
Fischer 1st
Tubby 7th
Izzo 5th
Ollie 2nd

So the people preaching patience may be onto something, or we need to start hiring coaches with some D1 experience.

« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 08:08:39 AM by MUMonster03 »

willie warrior

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #57 on: June 13, 2019, 05:47:49 AM »
#10to15YearsToJudge
The new mantra.

brewcity77

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #58 on: June 13, 2019, 09:25:26 AM »
Let's look at coaches with 10+ years at their current job by conference:

Big East: Jay Wright

Big 12: Bill Self, Bob Huggins, Scott Drew

Big 10: Tom Izzo, Matt Painter

ACC: Jim Boeheim, Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Leonard Hamilton, Mike Brey, Tony Bennett

SEC: John Calipari

Pac-12: Sean Miller

Is there anyone on that list who we wouldn't trade the past 10 years' results with? They've all at least made one Elite Eight. They account for 7 of the last 10 NCAA titles, with the others coming from two 10+ year tenures (Calhoun & Pitino) and another from serial outlier Kevin Ollie with Calhoun's players.

Maybe part of the reason we never get back to the success of Al is no one has stayed as long as Al.

The Equalizer

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #59 on: June 13, 2019, 11:46:58 AM »
The success of a coach IS the success of a program. If you change coaches every 5-10 years, you will most likely never reach the promised land. If you want to win year in and year out, it takes a coach installing a system and sticking with it for years. Long enough that the seniors teach the freshmen, that the culture is well established, and that the winning that attracts recruits isn't one flash-in-the-pan Final Four from the year before, but conference titles and tourney runs that come over a generation.

If you mean that some coaches show they CAN'T do it before then, I agree. But showing you can raise a program to an elite level rarely happens in less than a decade.

Butler and Xavier would be counter-examples to this. They change coaches frequently, and the replacement is often simply the promotion of an assistant.

Lets take Xavier: I don't know if they are considered "elite level", but with 19 NCAA appearances over the past 25 years, including 3 Elite Eights and 4 Sweet 16s, I would call that "winning year in and year out."  And they did it without a long tenured coach.

When Pete Gillen left, they hired former assistant Skip Prosser after a 1 year stint at Loyola MD.  When Prosser left, they hired Thad Matta from Butler--their only true outside hire in the past 25 years.  When Matta left they promoted Sean Miller. When Miller left, they promoted Chris Mack.  When Mack left they promoted Travis Steele.

And I don't think they ever navel gazed over who they should hire from the outside, should it be a top-level assistant or a rising mid-major coach, whether they were experienced enough, or prestigious enough or won enough.

Maybe its splitting hairs, but I don't see a single long-tenured coach as necessary. You can get the same kind of continuity if you hire from your own coaching and playing ranks. 




Pakuni

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #60 on: June 13, 2019, 01:55:04 PM »
Let's look at coaches with 10+ years at their current job by conference:

Big East: Jay Wright

Big 12: Bill Self, Bob Huggins, Scott Drew

Big 10: Tom Izzo, Matt Painter

ACC: Jim Boeheim, Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Leonard Hamilton, Mike Brey, Tony Bennett

SEC: John Calipari

Pac-12: Sean Miller

Is there anyone on that list who we wouldn't trade the past 10 years' results with? They've all at least made one Elite Eight. They account for 7 of the last 10 NCAA titles, with the others coming from two 10+ year tenures (Calhoun & Pitino) and another from serial outlier Kevin Ollie with Calhoun's players.

Maybe part of the reason we never get back to the success of Al is no one has stayed as long as Al.

I tend to agree that consistency can be important to success, but couldn't one just as easily argue that the long tenures of these coaches is a product of their success, rather than success being a product of their long tenures?

brewcity77

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #61 on: June 13, 2019, 03:12:05 PM »
Butler and Xavier would be counter-examples to this. They change coaches frequently, and the replacement is often simply the promotion of an assistant.

Those are really interesting examples. They keep the general system in place by promoting from within. For Xavier it was mostly passing it down from Gillen, for Butler, from Collier. The closest Marquette ever came to this recently was Buzz, but I think those with long memories are still gunshy about how things with Majerus worked out.

I tend to agree that consistency can be important to success, but couldn't one just as easily argue that the long tenures of these coaches is a product of their success, rather than success being a product of their long tenures?

I think it's a bit of both. Programs like Villanova, Duke, & Baylor stuck through some rough early times. Scott Drew didn't make the tournament until his 5th year & didn't go back to back until his 12th.

Was Matt Painter appreciated that much before the past 2-3 years? He had 6 appearances & 8 wins in his first 7 seasons, but it was Purdue sticking through a two-year 31-35 stretch that led to the respect he's earning today. Leonard Hamilton didn't make the tourney until year 7 at FSU, had just 4 appearances in 14 years, but now seems to be pretty well regarded.

Winning does lead to long tenures, but patience also seems to lead to winning.

asdfasdf

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #62 on: June 13, 2019, 03:19:48 PM »
I wouldn't categorize Butler or Xavier as elite, but definitely successful. They both tend to have more turnover than Marquette without much downturn in their performance. Their ability to stay competitive at a high level despite the HC turnover is impressive, especially compared to Marquette's 'rebuild'.

I think there's some truth to the 5-years to judge mantra. If I were an AD, based on this figure, I would give my coach 5 years to prove him/herself. If they are doing alright (ie, wojo) I would focus my resources on supporting/keeping my coach if possible. There's just too much risk when replacing a coach, and coaches who stick around longer than 5 years trend nicely.

muguru

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #63 on: June 13, 2019, 06:45:08 PM »
Those are really interesting examples. They keep the general system in place by promoting from within. For Xavier it was mostly passing it down from Gillen, for Butler, from Collier. The closest Marquette ever came to this recently was Buzz, but I think those with long memories are still gunshy about how things with Majerus worked out.

I think it's a bit of both. Programs like Villanova, Duke, & Baylor stuck through some rough early times. Scott Drew didn't make the tournament until his 5th year & didn't go back to back until his 12th.

Was Matt Painter appreciated that much before the past 2-3 years? He had 6 appearances & 8 wins in his first 7 seasons, but it was Purdue sticking through a two-year 31-35 stretch that led to the respect he's earning today. Leonard Hamilton didn't make the tourney until year 7 at FSU, had just 4 appearances in 14 years, but now seems to be pretty well regarded.

Winning does lead to long tenures, but patience also seems to lead to winning.

Not always...I think a perfect example of that is Brad Brownell at Clemson...he will be going into year 10 this coming season and has two NCAA appearances..His first year(2010-2011) they made it in..They did not go back until 17-18 when they made the Sweet 16..two NIT appearances in between, and an NIT last year.

Paul Hewitt, former Ga Tech Coach is another example..Sure, we was the NCAA runner up in 03-04, and maybe that bought him some goodwill, but after that season..They had 3 more NCAA seasons in his final 7 years and never went past the 2nd round after that. Never finished better than 3rd in the ACC and that was a tie for third the year they were NCAA runner ups.

Billy Kennedy got 7 years at Texas A&M...he went to two sweet 16's in 7 years.

The above examples are reasons you shouldn't always be patient. And why i say better a year too early than a year too soon. Patience can get you a bunch of mediocrity as well.

“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #64 on: June 13, 2019, 09:23:25 PM »
Yep, patience doesn't always work out. But is the only way to the big time.

I'd also say that Brownell and Hewitt are great examples of not relying on early tournament success to judge how good a coach is. Brownell led Clemson to it's first tournament win in 13 seasons in his first year. Probably bought him too much goodwill as you put it. Paul Hewitt went on a magical run in his 4th year....and then did nothing worth mentioning after that. Could be that's a bad way to judge a coach.

Kennedy was a special case. Patience was starting to pay of with him. Nothing his first season, CBI his second, NIT his third, Sweet 16 his fourth, dip his fifth, Sweet 16 his sixth, then his entire team went pro (despite some not getting drafted) and his 7th season was a flop. He wasn't fired because of the court results. There are a lot of concerns with his health, similar to Thad Matta. When Buzz made it known that he was available, it was a strategic move. Call it underhanded if you want, but that's how you change coaches.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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muguru

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #65 on: June 13, 2019, 09:45:36 PM »
I will leave this here...in another thread, Tower said people don't fire Coaches that have won 84 games in 4 years like Wojo has...well...MU fired Mike Deane and he had won 100 games in 5 years...and before I hear about he was "trending down" and he couldn't recruit..I will kindly remind you that his class of Harris, Diggs, Henry etc, was his best class by far so you could make the case that his recruiting was trending up, unquestionably. And he was always going to be a good Coach. So there is precedent for it..at MU actually. It just took someone with stones to do it..Bill Cords. That turned out ok, no?? 
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #66 on: June 13, 2019, 09:53:09 PM »
I will leave this here...in another thread, Tower said people don't fire Coaches that have won 84 games in 4 years like Wojo has...well...MU fired Mike Deane and he had won 100 games in 5 years...and before I hear about he was "trending down" and he couldn't recruit..I will kindly remind you that his class of Harris, Diggs, Henry etc, was his best class by far so you could make the case that his recruiting was trending up, unquestionably. And he was always going to be a good Coach. So there is precedent for it..at MU actually. It just took someone with stones to do it..Bill Cords. That turned out ok, no??

1. Trending down  ;)
2. You have your years mixed up, Harris, Diggs, and Herny were not his last class, Krunti Hester was
3. Deane won 79 games in 4 years, so less than Wojo's 84
4. Deane's 79 wins were in the Great Midwest Conference, Wojo's were in the Big East

It didn't take stones to fire Mike Deane. It took common sense. There is no comparison to the current situation.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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IrwinFletcher

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #67 on: June 13, 2019, 09:53:32 PM »

TAMU Eagle

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #68 on: June 13, 2019, 09:56:03 PM »
https://twitter.com/johngasaway/status/1139270177609195526?s=21

Should never have hired Al.

I've always wondered, does anyone have context for why Al was hired? On paper, that looks like a terrible hire (though it obviously worked out). Did he do the 1960s version of winning the power point?
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #69 on: June 13, 2019, 09:58:26 PM »
I've always wondered, does anyone have context for why Al was hired? On paper, that looks like a terrible hire (though it obviously worked out). Did he do the 1960s version of winning the power point?

Al was magic with transparencies and an overhead projector.
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muguru

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #70 on: June 13, 2019, 10:05:04 PM »
1. Trending down  ;)
2. You have your years mixed up, Harris, Diggs, and Herny were not his last class, Krunti Hester was
3. Deane won 79 games in 4 years, so less than Wojo's 84
4. Deane's 79 wins were in the Great Midwest Conference, Wojo's were in the Big East

It didn't take stones to fire Mike Deane. It took common sense. There is no comparison to the current situation.

I am now 110% convinced that regardless of how this MU season turns out, or the next season after that...or the one after that, that for you patience will always trump results, and you're in bed with Wojo and he's your guy no matter what. I guess we will see. But your obsession and love for him is weird for someone that really has done nothing of subsistence to deserve such love and adoration. Believe me, nothing would make me happier than for Wojo to prove me wrong, that means MU has been really successful...and that's what i want...but he could miss the tournament entirely this year(which would be a HUGE trend down) and you still would say he deserves more time. I'm certain of it.

You were probably too young, but did you say these same things when Crean was at MU?? He was a HELL of a lot more successful in 5 years than Wojo has been in 5 years. Yes, I know he wasn't fired...duh...but did you have the same kind of love for him??
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #71 on: June 13, 2019, 10:33:23 PM »
I would love for you to point to an example of a post of mine loving or adoring Wojo. I think you might have a harder time finding one than you think you will. Not agreeing with you and loving Wojo aren't the same thing.

I'm pretty solidly in the middle. I tend not to go too overboard one way or the other. I don't get overly pissed off about setbacks and I don't get overly excited about small victories. Big picture is what matters. If there was someone as the over the top as you screaming about how Wojo was the greatest thing since sliced bread I would be responding to them too. Sadly, no one can match your zeal.

Actually when Crean was around I used to scream after every loss and demand that he be fired after almost every season. Then I turned 16 and I realized that was dumb.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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muguru

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #72 on: June 13, 2019, 10:36:41 PM »
1. Trending down  ;)
2. You have your years mixed up, Harris, Diggs, and Herny were not his last class, Krunti Hester was
3. Deane won 79 games in 4 years, so less than Wojo's 84
4. Deane's 79 wins were in the Great Midwest Conference, Wojo's were in the Big East

It didn't take stones to fire Mike Deane. It took common sense. There is no comparison to the current situation.

Hmmm...

1994–95    Marquette    21–12    
1995–96    Marquette    23–8    
1996–97    Marquette    22–9    
1997–98    Marquette    20–11

Those were Mike Deane's first four years at MU...No matter how many times I add it up..I get 86 wins..which is ACTUALLY 2 more than Wojo had after 4 years.

Now let's look at these next column(s) side by side...

Coach A

Conf record(1st four years)..... 7-5  (T-3rd)
                                                10-4 (2nd)
                                                 9-5  (4th)
                                                 8-8  (4th)

Post Season(1st four years)     NIT Finals
                                                 NCAA 2nd round
                                                 NCAA 1st round
                                                 NIT Quarterfinals


Coach B

Conf record(1st 4 years)         4-14 (T-9th)
                                               8-10 (7th)
                                               10-8 (T-3rd)
                                                9-9  (T-6th)

Post season (1st 4 years)        None
                                                 None
                                                 NCAA Round 1
                                                 NIT Quarters


So...To recap...In the first 4 years...Deane had more overall wins..Higher finishes in the conference ALL 4 years, more post season success(whether you want to say the NIT matters or not, some here use that FOR Wojo)....Yet...Deane got fired...again..Deane was better in EVERY meaningful area than Wojo was his first 4 years..You are under the table for Wojo...and yet say it didn't take stones to fire Deane, it took logic?? Based on EVERY meaningful criteria that every Wojo backer here uses to SUPPORT Wojo, Deane was better. It took STONES to fire Deane...If all you can come back with is "uhhhh well, uhhh Wojo's trendline is better, and uhhh it's a stronger conference", that's moving the goalposts 110%.

So...if it took "logic" to fire Deane...being better in EVERY area(and Coaching aspect isn't even close), then it it definitely is/was MORE than logical to fire Wojo.

Do you need any more lessons, young man?? I'd be happy to teach you, like I just did here..took yo uto school...consider it post college education :)

Anyone else that chimes in...save all your weak ass arguments..you have NONE. ZERO, ZILCH. The numbers don't lie. Game...set...match.
                       
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

brewcity77

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #73 on: June 13, 2019, 10:48:22 PM »
Do you need any more lessons, young man??

What is the difference between Great Midwest Conference and the Big East?

MU82

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #74 on: June 13, 2019, 11:41:28 PM »
Hmmm...

1994–95    Marquette    21–12    
1995–96    Marquette    23–8    
1996–97    Marquette    22–9    
1997–98    Marquette    20–11

Those were Mike Deane's first four years at MU...No matter how many times I add it up..I get 86 wins..which is ACTUALLY 2 more than Wojo had after 4 years.

Now let's look at these next column(s) side by side...

Coach A

Conf record(1st four years)..... 7-5  (T-3rd)
                                                10-4 (2nd)
                                                 9-5  (4th)
                                                 8-8  (4th)

Post Season(1st four years)     NIT Finals
                                                 NCAA 2nd round
                                                 NCAA 1st round
                                                 NIT Quarterfinals


Coach B

Conf record(1st 4 years)         4-14 (T-9th)
                                               8-10 (7th)
                                               10-8 (T-3rd)
                                                9-9  (T-6th)

Post season (1st 4 years)        None
                                                 None
                                                 NCAA Round 1
                                                 NIT Quarters


So...To recap...In the first 4 years...Deane had more overall wins..Higher finishes in the conference ALL 4 years, more post season success(whether you want to say the NIT matters or not, some here use that FOR Wojo)....Yet...Deane got fired...again..Deane was better in EVERY meaningful area than Wojo was his first 4 years..You are under the table for Wojo...and yet say it didn't take stones to fire Deane, it took logic?? Based on EVERY meaningful criteria that every Wojo backer here uses to SUPPORT Wojo, Deane was better. It took STONES to fire Deane...If all you can come back with is "uhhhh well, uhhh Wojo's trendline is better, and uhhh it's a stronger conference", that's moving the goalposts 110%.

So...if it took "logic" to fire Deane...being better in EVERY area(and Coaching aspect isn't even close), then it it definitely is/was MORE than logical to fire Wojo.

Do you need any more lessons, young man?? I'd be happy to teach you, like I just did here..took yo uto school...consider it post college education :)

Anyone else that chimes in...save all your weak ass arguments..you have NONE. ZERO, ZILCH. The numbers don't lie. Game...set...match.
                       

TAMU was talking about Deane's last 4 years and Wojo's last 4 years. Unlike Deane -- who was handed Miller, Eford, McCaskill, Pieper and Abraham from a team that went to the S16 under K.O. -- Wojo had some rebuilding to do in Year 1.

In his fifth and final year, Deane won 14 games, finished last in Conference USA American division and recruited terribly; Wojo won 23 games, finished second in the Big East and already has snagged a 4-star recruit and a transfer big. Deane was clearly trending down in Year 5, Wojo was clearly trending up.

Game ... set ... match.
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