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Author Topic: A macro view of P6 coaches  (Read 8796 times)

Marcus92

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A macro view of P6 coaches
« on: June 11, 2019, 04:12:18 PM »
Of the 74 schools that belong to the NCAA Division I power conferences -- the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 12 and SEC -- 57 men's basketball head coaches have been at the same school for the past 3 years.

The attached tables organize these 57 coaches by wins over that period (2016-19) into 5 quintiles: 3 groups of 11 coaches, and another 2 groups of 12 each. The tables also include information on NCAA tournament results and Division I head coaching experience. Big East coaches in bold.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 04:14:01 PM by Marcus92 »
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Marcus92

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2019, 04:30:29 PM »
A few observations:

• There isn't a single coach in the 1st quintile with less than 13 years of experience as a Division I head coach.

• By this measure, Wojo is the 3rd best coach in the Big East — but in a virtually indistinguishable pack with Greg McDermott, Kevin Willard and even Ed Cooley.

• This is why anybody who says Wojo is in over his head has absolutely zero credibility. He's doing just fine; his performance over the past 3 seasons is on par with a number of more established and experienced coaches: McDermott, Willard, Cooley, Ben Howland, Mike Brey, Larry Krystokowiak, et cetera. Is Jim Boeheim in over his head?

• At the same time, 6 of the coaches here -- Mike Anderson, Steve Alford, Avery Johnson, Billy Kennedy, Chris Mullin and Bryce Drew -- were fired this year. Several of them (such as Alford and Johnson) rank not too far below Wojo. This season will be a critical one.

• I hope Shaka Smart has his resume up to date. His record at Texas has been thoroughly unimpressive. Same goes for Josh Pastner.

• If you didn't notice, Dave Leitao has the worst record of any P6 coach in Division I over the past 3 seasons. Yet he still has a job somehow. DePaul is simply pathetic. There are no words.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 05:02:30 PM by Marcus92 »
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Marcus92

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2019, 04:31:40 PM »
And here's a list of all the P6 coaches with 10 years of experience or less:
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Marcus92

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2019, 04:33:41 PM »
This one pretty much speaks for itself. When you compare Wojo's record over the past 3 seasons to P6 coaches with a similar level of Division I head coaching experience, his resume looks much stronger. (The "5th quintile" label on this chart is a typo.)
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 05:04:15 PM by Marcus92 »
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Marcus92

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2019, 04:43:37 PM »
Apologies for all the posts, but I wanted to mention a couple caveats.

First, a handful of coaches like Chris Mack (Louisville) aren't included because they haven't been at their current school for the past 3 seasons. Mack, by the way, would slot into the 2nd quintile behind Rick Barnes.

Second, limiting the list to the Power 6 conferences obviously leaves out a number of great coaches: Mark Few, Eric Musselman, Kelvin Sampson, Randy Bennett, Gregg Marshall, Kermit Davis, Nate Oats, etc. I have no question that Mark Few would be successful at a P6 school. But the WCC is such a dramatic drop in quality from the P6 that it makes comparisons more difficult.

With all that in mind, it seems fair to say Wojo has performed like one of the top 25 or 30 coaches in the country over the past 3 seasons. Have we seen the best he has to offer? Or can he improve? The coming season may be his biggest test yet.
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SaveOD238

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2019, 05:09:56 PM »
And here's a list of all the P6 coaches with 10 years of experience or less:

Wojo is 4th on this list, but in a virtual tie with Enfield and Gard.  The only young coach proven to be significantly better is Chris Beard.  Looks like we have a good thing going

Marcus92

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2019, 05:19:40 PM »
Another typo -- I left Mike White off the list of coaches with 10 years of Division I experience or less. He would slot in between Beard and Enfield. Sloppy work, my apologies.
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asdfasdf

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2019, 05:29:15 PM »
Thanks for posting these. I have some similar data that might help show this data graphically. Hard to argue that Wojo has done poorly in his time here.


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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2019, 05:40:45 PM »
Wojo is 4th on this list, but in a virtual tie with Enfield and Gard.  The only young coach proven to be significantly better is Chris Beard.  Looks like we have a good thing going

We certainly do if our goal is to develop young coaches.  I don’t agree that is what we are trying to do as a program.

Marcus92

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2019, 06:03:10 PM »
We certainly do if our goal is to develop young coaches.  I don’t agree that is what we are trying to do as a program.

I'd pose that just a bit differently. My read is that Marquette hired Wojo for two main reasons:

a) He showed the potential to develop into a great coach
b) He's a strong fit with the university

The goal isn't to develop young coaches. It's for the program to succeed long term -- which is only possible if both a) and b) hold true.

Buzz ultimately didn't mesh with this strategy. No matter what Buzz stated publicly -- "I'll stay as long as they'll have me," "Don't mess with happy," et cetera -- it seems clear he wasn't a good fit with the university and had no interest in staying long term. He's now left New Orleans, Marquette and Virginia Tech.

Now, if Wojo either plateaus/regresses (hiring young, unproven coaches is always a risk) or leaves for a higher profile job after achieving success at MU in a year or two, the strategy is worth questioning.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 06:05:21 PM by Marcus92 »
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Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2019, 06:07:43 PM »
I'd pose that just a bit differently. My read is that Marquette hired Wojo for two main reasons:

a) He showed the potential to develop into a great coach
b) He's a strong fit with the university

The goal isn't to develop young coaches. It's for the program to succeed long term -- which is only possible if both a) and b) hold true.

Buzz ultimately didn't mesh with this strategy. No matter what Buzz stated publicly -- "I'll stay as long as they'll have me," "Don't mess with happy," et cetera -- it seems clear he wasn't a good fit with the university and had no interest in staying long term. He's now left New Orleans, Marquette and Virginia Tech.

Now, if Wojo either plateaus/regresses (hiring young, unproven coaches is always a risk) or leaves for a higher profile job after achieving success at MU in a year or two, the strategy is worth questioning.

Neither a or b is about winning basketball games.  So maybe that’s the side stuff but I don’t think that was the objective of the program.

Marcus92

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2019, 06:15:29 PM »
Neither a or b is about winning basketball games.  So maybe that’s the side stuff but I don’t think that was the objective of the program.

Big picture, Marquette athletic director Bill School has talked repeatedly about the goals of the program: success on the court, in the classroom and in the community. Having good coaches who are a good fit with the university is part of that. I can't say whether MU favors young coaches. But recent history (O'Neill, Crean, Williams, Wojo) seems to back it up.
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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2019, 06:29:31 PM »
We certainly do if our goal is to develop young coaches.  I don’t agree that is what we are trying to do as a program.

The goal is to hire the coach that's going to elevate your program. This list certainly isn't the end all be all but by my count, there are only 5 coaches that Marquette could have possibly hired after Buzz that are above Wojo on this list:

#13 Chris Beard (and let's be honest, no one was hiring a D2 coach for a Marquette level job)
#18 Mike White (probably the most legit candidate on this list)
#20 Mike Anderson (not sure we could have hired him away from Arkansas at that point)
#22 Greg McDermott (not sure he would have left for an in-conference rival)
#25 Greg Gard (no way we hire a Wisconsin assistant)

I think it's fair to cross off Beard and Gard as no one would have hired them at that point for Marquette. So at worst, we made the 4th best hire and probably made the 2nd best hire we could of....again, based on this list which is not the end all be all.
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Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2019, 06:36:03 PM »
Big picture, Marquette athletic director Bill School has talked repeatedly about the goals of the program: success on the court, in the classroom and in the community. Having good coaches who are a good fit with the university is part of that. I can't say whether MU favors young coaches. But recent history (O'Neill, Crean, Williams, Wojo) seems to back it up.

Bill Scholl did say this at the contract extension.

Here are some Bill Cords quotes upon hire:
Interim Marquette athletic director Bill Cords said Wojciechowski was the only finalist who wasn't already a head coach but said he came highly recommended by Krzyzewski and Jerry Colangelo, the former owner of the Phoenix Suns and director of USA Basketball. Wojciechowski assisted Krzyzewski with the U.S. national team from 2006 to 2012.

"We were looking for someone who could take us to our vision of getting us to the top," interim athletics director Bill Cords said. "Steve has been to the top."

Class71

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2019, 07:01:33 PM »
A few observations:

• There isn't a single coach in the 1st quintile with less than 13 years of experience as a Division I head coach.

• By this measure, Wojo is the 3rd best coach in the Big East — but in a virtually indistinguishable pack with Greg McDermott, Kevin Willard and even Ed Cooley.

• This is why anybody who says Wojo is in over his head has absolutely zero credibility. He's doing just fine; his performance over the past 3 seasons is on par with a number of more established and experienced coaches: McDermott, Willard, Cooley, Ben Howland, Mike Brey, Larry Krystokowiak, et cetera. Is Jim Boeheim in over his head?

• At the same time, 6 of the coaches here -- Mike Anderson, Steve Alford, Avery Johnson, Billy Kennedy, Chris Mullin and Bryce Drew -- were fired this year. Several of them (such as Alford and Johnson) rank not too far below Wojo. This season will be a critical one.

• I hope Shaka Smart has his resume up to date. His record at Texas has been thoroughly unimpressive. Same goes for Josh Pastner.

• If you didn't notice, Dave Leitao has the worst record of any P6 coach in Division I over the past 3 seasons. Yet he still has a job somehow. DePaul is simply pathetic. There are no words.

Wow, we are so, so lucky to have Wojo.
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Herman Cain

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2019, 07:29:45 PM »
Nice that all the stats look good and support my notion that Wojo stock is rising on the coaching carousel . Hopefully we have another solid year and then he gets hired away for a good money long term contract by a power 5 football school.

Marcus92

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2019, 07:39:03 PM »
Wow, we are so, so lucky to have Wojo.

The point was simply to provide an objective view of Wojo's on-court results so far relative to his peers. You can look at it a couple ways.

Some see a half-empty glass -- i.e. Wojo is an average coach who's produced average results so far and hasn't lived up to expectations at Marquette. That's fair. The third quintile is right in the middle, the very definition of average among P6 coaches. Certainly not great.

Others see a half-full glass -- i.e. Wojo has won more than most other young coaches competing today at the highest level of college basketball. And hopefully that points the way to even greater success in the future.

Can Wojo move up the list? That's my expectation as a fan. Just making the tournament isn't enough. I want MU in the running for Big East championships year after year, earning top seeds and winning games when it counts most: in the NCAA tournament. The standard should be Jay Wright, not Ed Cooley or Kevin Willard.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 07:44:50 PM by Marcus92 »
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MUMonster03

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2019, 01:59:56 AM »
The point was simply to provide an objective view of Wojo's on-court results so far relative to his peers. You can look at it a couple ways.

Some see a half-empty glass -- i.e. Wojo is an average coach who's produced average results so far and hasn't lived up to expectations at Marquette. That's fair. The third quintile is right in the middle, the very definition of average among P6 coaches. Certainly not great.

Others see a half-full glass -- i.e. Wojo has won more than most other young coaches competing today at the highest level of college basketball. And hopefully that points the way to even greater success in the future.

Can Wojo move up the list? That's my expectation as a fan. Just making the tournament isn't enough. I want MU in the running for Big East championships year after year, earning top seeds and winning games when it counts most: in the NCAA tournament. The standard should be Jay Wright, not Ed Cooley or Kevin Willard.

I think everyone here wants a coach that turns into Jay Wright. But here's why my confusion comes with people wanting it to be so quick and wanting Wojo to leave:

Even though Wright came in with 7 years experience, it still took him until year 4 at Nova to get to the NCAA's. He had decent success after that but after the final four he had a run that by the recent Wojo hat on scoop would have everyone calling for his head.  His next 6 seasons after the final four included zero second weekends, 2 first round exits, and one missed NCAA.

So if Wright can still have a stretch of 6 years of not great NCAA results with 15 years of head coaching experience a guy with 5 shouldn't be hammered so hard. Would it be nice to have a win or two in the tournament in the last 5 years, yes, but would two second round exits have really calmed anyone down here?

Wright did not win a championship until year 15 at Nova and 22 overall. And the year they won in 2016 was there first second weekend since 2009.

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2019, 09:44:54 AM »
Thanks for the rundown.  My only complaint is the rankings.  Something needs to be included for tourney success.  Frank Martin, with that Final Four run needs to be higher as does Billy Kennedy and his S16.

But the analysis does point out how hard it is to expect a young coach, with little experience, to compete with the big boys.  It is extremely rare.  If you are going to hire a young coach, and there is some success,  you have to stick with them for awhile otherwise it is a waste.

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2019, 09:56:37 AM »
Thanks for the rundown.  My only complaint is the rankings.  Something needs to be included for tourney success.  Frank Martin, with that Final Four run needs to be higher as does Billy Kennedy and his S16.

But the analysis does point out how hard it is to expect a young coach, with little experience, to compete with the big boys.  It is extremely rare.  If you are going to hire a young coach, and there is some success,  you have to stick with them for awhile otherwise it is a waste.

And they need to want to stick with you as well.  And you need to be prepared to defend them from others when they hit their stride.

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2019, 10:27:27 AM »
This nicely explains why I suggested a few months back that 5 years wasn't enough to get an idea, but it would take 10-15 before you really know the kind of coach you have. Long term success doesn't come without a long term commitment.

Marcus92

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2019, 10:45:02 AM »
Thanks for the rundown.  My only complaint is the rankings.  Something needs to be included for tourney success.  Frank Martin, with that Final Four run needs to be higher as does Billy Kennedy and his S16.

That's why I used the quintiles. It's not so much about an individual coach's ranking, or who's ranked #32 versus #36. It's meant as a way to look at coaching records and expectations more broadly.

There are, of course, more complicated rankings that assign different values for postseason accomplishments and such. Total wins are only the most basic measure.

(BTW, I'd argue Frank Martin is right about where he belongs. His Final Four looks more and more like an outlier to me -- it was his one and only NCAA bid in 7 seasons with South Carolina, followed by 17-16 and 16-16 seasons where he missed the postseason altogether. But that's for another thread.)
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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2019, 10:48:10 AM »
This nicely explains why I suggested a few months back that 5 years wasn't enough to get an idea, but it would take 10-15 before you really know the kind of coach you have. Long term success doesn't come without a long term commitment.

This makes sense for success of a program, but not for the success of a coach in my opinion.

Fr. Wild's bet in the late 90's paid off quicker than this.

muguru

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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2019, 11:07:40 AM »
Thanks for the rundown.  My only complaint is the rankings.  Something needs to be included for tourney success.  Frank Martin, with that Final Four run needs to be higher as does Billy Kennedy and his S16.

But the analysis does point out how hard it is to expect a young coach, with little experience, to compete with the big boys.  It is extremely rare.  If you are going to hire a young coach, and there is some success,  you have to stick with them for awhile otherwise it is a waste.

I think this problem is very easy to solve...stop hiring young, unproven Coaches, right??
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Re: A macro view of P6 coaches
« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2019, 11:08:01 AM »
This makes sense for success of a program, but not for the success of a coach in my opinion.

Fr. Wild's bet in the late 90's paid off quicker than this.

The success of a coach IS the success of a program. If you change coaches every 5-10 years, you will most likely never reach the promised land. If you want to win year in and year out, it takes a coach installing a system and sticking with it for years. Long enough that the seniors teach the freshmen, that the culture is well established, and that the winning that attracts recruits isn't one flash-in-the-pan Final Four from the year before, but conference titles and tourney runs that come over a generation.

If you mean that some coaches show they CAN'T do it before then, I agree. But showing you can raise a program to an elite level rarely happens in less than a decade.