Do you expect Markus back for his senior year?

[BM1090]

I think Markus is pretty much a lock 2nd rounder whenever he declares. Not sure if he will stick but a team will give him a shot as a bench scorer.

[StillWarriors]

I posted something similar in another thread, but I do think the amount of time the ball is in his hands has to come into play in assessing his turnovers. I'm not sure if there is an advance metric for TOs/minute, or more importantly, accounting for usage.

I tend to think his size will keep him out of the first round of the draft, but when you think about how unique what he is doing is I'm not sure it is the no brainer I would have thought it would be. What a remarkable talent.

[Cheeks]

I think Markus is pretty much a lock 2nd rounder whenever he declares. Not sure if he will stick but a team will give him a shot as a bench scorer.

If he's a lock, sure would be interesting to hear scouts say that or some draft boards.  Non existent on them.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I posted something similar in another thread, but I do think the amount of time the ball is in his hands has to come into play in assessing his turnovers. I'm not sure if there is an advance metric for TOs/minute, or more importantly, accounting for usage.

I tend to think his size will keep him out of the first round of the draft, but when you think about how unique what he is doing is I'm not sure it is the no brainer I would have thought it would be. What a remarkable talent.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=57296.msg1074680#msg1074680

a few posts above yours my man

it's called TO rate

His 17.6% is in line with players who have the ball in their hands as much as he does.

Better than comps like Trae Young & Isaiah Thomas

And exactly in line with DWade's sophomore year (literally both at 17.6%)

[Herman Cain]

Current Mock Draft Prospects for Selected Big East Guards

https://www.nbadraft.net/2020mock_draft

Markus Howard 55th in 2020 ( up from 56th)
Ty Shon Alexander 28th in 2020
Shamorie Ponds  54th in 2019
Myles Powell   NR

 

[StillWarriors]

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=57296.msg1074680#msg1074680

a few posts above yours my man

it's called TO rate

His 17.6% is in line with players who have the ball in their hands as much as he does.

Better than comps like Trae Young & Isaiah Thomas

And exactly in line with DWade's sophomore year (literally both at 17.6%)

Thanks. Didn't think that one through.

[Pakuni]

I think Markus is pretty much a lock 2nd rounder whenever he declares. Not sure if he will stick but a team will give him a shot as a bench scorer.

Better off going undrafted than in the second, especially late second. He'll get to choose the place he's most likely to earn a roster spot.

[CTWarrior]

Thanks. Didn't think that one through.

On Basketball-Reference the formula for TO% is 100*TO/(FGA+.44*FTA+TO).  Is that right?

That means that TO% is basically a ratio of how many times your turn it over vs. how many times you shoot, assuming that .44*FTA is in there to represent the times you shot but it was not counted because you were fouled).  It seems strange to me that assists would not be included in the denominator, since that would be a productive use of a possession that was not a TO and would be closer to what you are trying to measure with TO%, though not near perfect given all the times you handle the ball and successfully move it on to another player but it does not result in a score directly from the pass.

Logically then, a high volume shooter would have a lower TO% than a low volume shooter even if they had the ball in their hands the same amount of time and turned it over similarly.  That seems to me to be counter to what is trying to be measured.

What am I missing?

[Cheeks]

Current Mock Draft Prospects for Selected Big East Guards

https://www.nbadraft.net/2020mock_draft

Markus Howard 55th in 2020 ( up from 56th)
Ty Shon Alexander 28th in 2020
Shamorie Ponds  54th in 2019
Myles Powell   NR

Ponds they barely have in the 2nd round of this coming draft.  Ponds is more NBA sized than Markus, IMO.

[BM1090]

The kid is arguably the best scorer in college basketball and has improved to the point he's a pretty good defender at the college level. The size issue will always be there so he likely won't ever be a guy that can play extended minutes in a playoff series because he'd get targeted, but he's absolutely skilled enough to be a bench player in the NBA. JJ Barea is still a good player in the league. Isaiah Caanan. Isaiah Thomas. Aaron Brooks. DJ Augustin.

It's not like Markus is 5'7. Plenty of 5'11 guys in the NBA. He'll get a shot whenever he goes, but I think he will be back next year.

[alexius23]

I think about Butch Lee. Goes from National player of the year to a fairly bland NBA career during which he was on a Lakers Championship team. Injuries end his career. Markus is a great shooter but I think he isn't as good as Butch was. I think going to the NBA now wouldn't be the best idea.....but what do I know.  Henry Ellenson as well...

[SaveOD238]

Ponds they barely have in the 2nd round of this coming draft.  Ponds is more NBA sized than Markus, IMO.

...and I like Ponds' NBA future more than Markus'.  Size helps, but Ponds is better defender as well.

Markus...prove me wrong! 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

As great as Markus was, last night didn't do much for his draft stock.  Creighton plays 4 guys 6-5 and under almost all the time.

The NBA is a different game.  Many 6-7 to 6-9 wings to contest shots on the perimeter.   Markus needs to perform well in workouts against NBA prospects or games against other a legitimate draft prospects.

Kansas, Indiana,  St. John's...those games aren't forgotten just because Markus lights up Kansas State, Buffalo,  and Creighton.

This is where I'm at. Watching last night made me realize that he will have a role in the NBA somewhere. He's simply too good of a scorer not to. But if I'm an NBA GM I am very hesitant to draft Howard when he puts up a stat line like he did against St. John's. When Howard has played big guards with long wingspans which are all you get in the NBA he has struggled. He'll find a spot somewhere but unless he becomes a much better facilitator, I don't think he is ever a first round pick.

[Pakuni]

The kid is arguably the best scorer in college basketball and has improved to the point he's a pretty good defender at the college level. The size issue will always be there so he likely won't ever be a guy that can play extended minutes in a playoff series because he'd get targeted, but he's absolutely skilled enough to be a bench player in the NBA. JJ Barea is still a good player in the league. Isaiah Caanan. Isaiah Thomas. Aaron Brooks. DJ Augustin.

It's not like Markus is 5'7. Plenty of 5'11 guys in the NBA. He'll get a shot whenever he goes, but I think he will be back next year.

I believe there are only four players in the NBA listed under 6' ... Isaiah Thomas, Kay Felder, Tyler Ulis and Ty Lawson. The rest of the guys you name above are listed at 6' (which may or may not be generous).
I think there's a role for Markus in the NBA, but his height, defensive deficiencies and lack of true point guard skills means he's probably not an early pick.

[Jay Bee]

On Basketball-Reference the formula for TO% is 100*TO/(FGA+.44*FTA+TO).  Is that right?

That means that TO% is basically a ratio of how many times your turn it over vs. how many times you shoot, assuming that .44*FTA is in there to represent the times you shot but it was not counted because you were fouled).  It seems strange to me that assists would not be included in the denominator, since that would be a productive use of a possession that was not a TO and would be closer to what you are trying to measure with TO%, though not near perfect given all the times you handle the ball and successfully move it on to another player but it does not result in a score directly from the past.

Logically then, a high volume shooter would have a lower TO% than a low volume shooter even if they had the ball in their hands the same amount of time and turned it over similarly.  That seems to me to be counter to what is trying to be measured.

What am I missing?

What you're missing is that is 'basketball-reference', who no one should use. It's an overly simplistic calc and complete trash.

The TO% rate that many of us refer to here is different than basketball-reference's dumbo-crap.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Markus could do Isaiah Thomas things in the league just watch

[1SE]

I think it depends quite a bit on how far MU goes in the tourney. If I recall (without remembering the exact draft boards) Wade's stock rose considerably due to the FF run (seems he was late lottery/just out before the NCAAs?)

IF somehow we make a similar run, on Markus' back, this year then I could see some team with a late 1st round pick taking a chance on a guy "everyone is talking about". Markus is exciting to watch. When he's on he's probably the most exciting to watch in CBB right now. If some non-contending NBA team thinks he could be exciting to watch at the next level they may overlook his other deficiencies if they think he can put a few more butts in seats. The NBA is a business after all.

Always a risk of injury, and if Markus thinks he can get 1st round money this year probably a better bet than risking the variability of second round money in 2020 (not to mentioned the NPV of an extra year of earnings at age 20).

https://hypebeast.com/2017/6/nba-draft-contract-values-first-second-round-drop

[martyconlonontherun]

Draft rankings this early are usually too generous to American players. I think there will be a few pick and stash euros that would push Howard down.

I always assumed he stayed four years but if we have a deep run and he keeps scoring, why not attempt a NBA run from a career/money perspective? Wojo isn't going to get him to grow next year and he hasn't developed point guard skills in three years. Probably better off cashing in and hoping to get drafted in Mid-second with teams thinking they can mold him into a spark plug off the bench. If not, make money in Europe. Next year he is probably in the same position but a year older.

He seems to like college so there is value in that on a personal level.

[StillAWarrior]

Always a risk of injury, and if Markus thinks he can get 1st round money this year probably a better bet than risking the variability of second round money in 2020 (not to mentioned the NPV of an extra year of earnings at age 20).

I think if Markus has credible people advising him that he will get drafted in the first round this year, he should go.  I'd hate to lose him, but he should go.  Personally, I'll be surprised if that's the case, but I'd love to be surprised.  Having guys drafted in the first round is great for the program.

[THRILLHO]

...
he hasn't developed point guard skills in three years.
...

Disagree with this, i think he is noticeably better now than he was at the start of the year!

[warriorchick]

Disagree with this, i think he is noticeably better now than he was at the start of the year!

I love Markus, and I agree his point guard skills have improved, but I if I am being honest, I would say they have gone from a D to a C-plus at best.

There are no C-plus point guards in the NBA.

[CTWarrior]

What you're missing is that is 'basketball-reference', who no one should use. It's an overly simplistic calc and complete trash.

The TO% rate that many of us refer to here is different than basketball-reference's dumbo-crap.

Where would I find a good place for the definitions you use?  I am quite literate in baseball stats, but not so much in basketball and would like to be better informed.  Since baseball has a good set of stats that are less context driven, I tend to think of them as more telling than most basketball stats, since you are much more dependent on your teammates in basketball.

[THRILLHO]

I love Markus, and I agree his point guard skills have improved, but I if I am being honest, I would say they have gone from a D to a C-plus at best.

There are no C-plus point guards in the NBA.

Yeah, I wouldn't necessarily grade him higher, but at the beginning of the year I thought it was kind of a hopeless project and that point guards are born and not made. Now I'm on board and hopeful that Markus will continue to improve. Not sure he'll improve to an NBA draftable level but I was more disagreeing with the narrow point that he hasn't improved his PG skills.

[THRILLHO]

nm

[BM1090]

Yeah, I wouldn't necessarily grade him higher, but at the beginning of the year I thought it was kind of hopeless project and that point guards are born and not made. Now I'm on board and hopeful that Markus will continue to improve. Not sure he'll improve to an NBA draftable level but I was more disagreeing with the narrow point that he hasn't improved his PG skills.

I think his ball handling has improved drastically. Court vision is still pretty bad.