NFL 2018-19 2.0

[Pakuni]

If the Parkey kick goes in, I wonder if Fangio is still here.

Really thought once Bowles didn't sign a contract with Tampa this morning, he was coming to Chicago. Obviously money will be biggest factor, but should be plenty of good candidates for the Bears DC job. Curious to see what happens with Donatell, if he goes to Denver.

I sill think Rex would be a good choice, though a Bears fan friend raised a good point ... Rex is an awfully big personality, perhaps too big for a low-key organization with a low-key head coach.

[Dish]

I sill think Rex would be a good choice, though a Bears fan friend raised a good point ... Rex is an awfully big personality, perhaps too big for a low-key organization with a low-key head coach.

I think you're right on with the too big a personality aspect (funny as his dad is a Bears legend).

I give Bowles credit, from what it sounds like, he had not signed a contract with Tampa, but gave Arians his word that he'd be his DC. Then this morning he was really intrigued by Chicago, thought about it, and went back to keeping his word.

[Pakuni]

I think you're right on with the too big a personality aspect (funny as his dad is a Bears legend).

I give Bowles credit, from what it sounds like, he had not signed a contract with Tampa, but gave Arians his word that he'd be his DC. Then this morning he was really intrigued by Chicago, thought about it, and went back to keeping his word.

Bears pose an interesting dilemma for whoever their next DC is.
Obviously all the pieces are in place to be successful. On the other hand, any regression - and it seems likely given a number of factors, like a tougher schedule  - is going to be blamed on the new guy.

[Dish]

Bears pose an interesting dilemma for whoever their next DC is.
Obviously all the pieces are in place to be successful. On the other hand, any regression - and it seems likely given a number of factors, like a tougher schedule  - is going to be blamed on the new guy.

They are likely due for regression. Interceptions can be fluky from year to year. The Bears were relatively healthy on defense in '18. Not having Jackson/Callahan in the wild card game was not ideal, they lost Mack for a couple games with an ankle, but for the most part they were relatively healthy. Next year's schedule will be tougher as well as you mentioned, so there should naturally be some regression all around.

[RJax55]

I sill think Rex would be a good choice, though a Bears fan friend raised a good point ... Rex is an awfully big personality, perhaps too big for a low-key organization with a low-key head coach.

Hell no to Rex. He's nothing more than a caricature these days.

In Buffalo, he inherited a defensive that finished 2nd in DVOA in 2014. Two years later, his defense finished 27th. Sean McDermott comes in and the defense immediately bounces back, finishing 15th in 2017.

[Cheeks]

Back in '82, Chicos could throw a pigskin a quarter mile

Nope.  Love your obsession with me.  Rent free for all these years.

[jesmu84]

Is Kyler Murray a success in the NFL?

https://twitter.com/SInow/status/1083205578724438016

[MU82]

What a god awful week.

MU with 2 big wins, including an amazing one today, and getting a commitment from a 4-star recruit who will really help us for several years.

I was thinking it was a heck of a week.

[Pakuni]

Is Kyler Murray a success in the NFL?

https://twitter.com/SInow/status/1083205578724438016

I'll be surprised if he goes before the 5th round. Very small (not just short), not a great arm by NFL standards and wants to play two sports.

[Spotcheck Billy]

I'll be surprised if he goes before the 5th round. Very small (not just short), not a great arm by NFL standards and wants to play two sports.

If he drops much out of the 1st round he'll probably play baseball with the $$$ already guaranteed to him.

[Pakuni]

If he drops much out of the 1st round he'll probably play baseball with the $$$ already guaranteed to him.

Unless he commits 100 percent to football - and why would he? - what team is going to use a first-round pick on him? Who wants a quarterback that's going to potentially be unavailable for OTAs, minicamp, training camp, the entire preseason and the first 4-5 weeks of the regular season?

[tower912]

Contract in hand.   Never has to get beat up by a 280lb end again.     So much less risk of CTE.    But hey, it is his choice. 

[jutaw22mu]

Contract in hand.   Never has to get beat up by a 280lb end again.     So much less risk of CTE.    But hey, it is his choice.

But baseball is so boring. 

[Cheeks]

Contract in hand.   Never has to get beat up by a 280lb end again.     So much less risk of CTE.    But hey, it is his choice.

If it is about most likely scenario of the most money to earn, historically would suggest going to football.  I know that sounds backwards, but it isn't.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ask-ba-financially-kyler-murray-would-do-better-in-the-nfl/

[Pakuni]

If it is about most likely scenario of the most money to earn, historically would suggest going to football.  I know that sounds backwards, but it isn't.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ask-ba-financially-kyler-murray-would-do-better-in-the-nfl/

The problem with this analysis is that it supposes that Murray will be a first round pick AND  ... something exceptionally unlikely to happen if he plans to try both sports.

[tower912]

But baseball is so boring.

I would say the same about football.    Give me my baseball. 

[Cheeks]

The problem with this analysis is that it supposes that Murray will be a first round pick AND  ... something exceptionally unlikely to happen if he plans to try both sports.

Kingsbury said in October he would take him the number one pick overall, not just first round pick, but first pick of first round.  In a twist of irony, Kingsbury is now the coach of the Arizona Cardinals and they have #1 pick.  What will they do?  Some articles today suggesting Cardinals will take him, trade Rosen.

The analysis I attached is held by a few others. 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-nfl-draft-heres-why-kyler-murray-should-play-in-the-nfl-and-pass-on-baseball/

These jump out of extreme stiffs and how much they made. It's tough to break through in baseball, a long journey....how many stiffs in baseball make this kind of money?

Mark Sanchez: $74.2 million
- Matt Cassel: $65.5 million
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: $58 million
- Josh McCown: $49.7 million

A 2nd midround pick in the NFL makes the same as the A's have given to him.

There are also some analysis that say baseball is the slam dunk.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/heres-why-kyler-murray-should-stick-with-baseball-instead-of-declaring-for-the-nfl-draft/

It's like 500 economists saying one thing, 500 another....or 5 SCOTUS justices saying one thing while 4 others say the opposite.   It's pandemonium.   

[Silkk the Shaka]

Unless he commits 100 percent to football - and why would he? - what team is going to use a first-round pick on him? Who wants a quarterback that's going to potentially be unavailable for OTAs, minicamp, training camp, the entire preseason and the first 4-5 weeks of the regular season?

I was thinking about this - Gruden thinks of himself as a QB whisperer and is clearly a gambler - he might try to trade Carr for a pick or 2 and use one of the late 1sts they already have on Murray if he's convinced he'll give football a shot.

[cheebs09]

Kingsbury said in October he would take him the number one pick overall, not just first round pick, but first pick of first round.  In a twist of irony, Kingsbury is now the coach of the Arizona Cardinals and they have #1 pick.  What will they do?  Some articles today suggesting Cardinals will take him, trade Rosen.

The analysis I attached is held by a few others. 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-nfl-draft-heres-why-kyler-murray-should-play-in-the-nfl-and-pass-on-baseball/

These jump out of extreme stiffs and how much they made. It's tough to break through in baseball, a long journey....how many stiffs in baseball make this kind of money?

Mark Sanchez: $74.2 million
- Matt Cassel: $65.5 million
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: $58 million
- Josh McCown: $49.7 million

A 2nd midround pick in the NFL makes the same as the A's have given to him.

There are also some analysis that say baseball is the slam dunk.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/heres-why-kyler-murray-should-stick-with-baseball-instead-of-declaring-for-the-nfl-draft/

It's like 500 economists saying one thing, 500 another....or 5 SCOTUS justices saying one thing while 4 others say the opposite.   It's pandemonium.   

Apologies if I this is covered in the article, but is that money they actually received or just the sticker price of the contracts? Also, I believe those players were drafted before the capping of contracts for draft picks. First rounders got a lot more up front in the past.

[CreightonWarrior]

LaFleur won't retain Ron Zook. Dude is already a Packers legend.

[barfolomew]

Hell no to Rex. He's nothing more than a caricature these days.

At least we know Rex would jump into the job with both feet.

[Cheeks]

Apologies if I this is covered in the article, but is that money they actually received or just the sticker price of the contracts? Also, I believe those players were drafted before the capping of contracts for draft picks. First rounders got a lot more up front in the past.

In Sanchez's case, he got $28M guaranteed.....then three years later got a $40.5M extension, of which $20M was guaranteed.  So that's $48M in guarantee money, plus whatever else he took in.  Fox Sports and one other site say $72M in total, but I don't know if some of that was sticker price.  Let's just go with the guarantee alone, which we know is low because it doesn't include the years he did actually fulfill....$48M.  That's a lot of money for a stiff.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Hell no to Rex. He's nothing more than a caricature these days.

In Buffalo, he inherited a defensive that finished 2nd in DVOA in 2014. Two years later, his defense finished 27th. Sean McDermott comes in and the defense immediately bounces back, finishing 15th in 2017.

Rex would likely be a disaster. He runs gimmick schemes and gambles, and no one can follow his playbooks. If I were the Bears, I'd back up the Brinks truck for Jim Schwartz, make him the highest paid D coordinator in the league, give him an associate head coach title or something if needed. He'd take those pieces from very good to great.

[Pakuni]

Mark Sanchez: $74.2 million
- Matt Cassel: $65.5 million
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: $58 million
- Josh McCown: $49.7 million

The average length of career for these four guys is 13.5 years.
The average career length of an NFL quarterback is 4.4 years.
So maybe comparing career earnings of players who've lasted three times longer than the average isn't the most accurate way to go about this.

For fairness sake, how about comparing career earnings of longtime middling position players?
Mike Napoli just retired after a 13-year career in which he earned $85.1 million.
In 11 years, Brett Gardner has earned $64.6 million and has $7.5 million more coming this year.
In 11 years, Dexter Fowler has earned $65.7 million and is owed another $49 million more (nice job, Cardinals)
Over 14 years, Melky Cabrera has earned $71.6 million

Apples to apples says baseball is the better move.

[Pakuni]

In Sanchez's case, he got $28M guaranteed.....then three years later got a $40.5M extension, of which $20M was guaranteed.  So that's $48M in guarantee money, plus whatever else he took in.  Fox Sports and one other site say $72M in total, but I don't know if some of that was sticker price.  Let's just go with the guarantee alone, which we know is low because it doesn't include the years he did actually fulfill....$48M.  That's a lot of money for a stiff.

Except the majority of that is based on Sanchez being the 5th overall pick in the draft ... something Murray won't come close to being. So, moot point.