NFL 2018-19 2.0

[jficke13]

Except the majority of that is based on Sanchez being the 5th overall pick in the draft ... something Murray won't come close to being. So, moot point.

Kinda clownish though he may be, Schefter floated a scenario where Arizona trades Rosen and drafts Murray. I'm not sure where he ends up going, but 5th round seems low given the feast or (more commonly) famine nature of NFL QB play.

[Pakuni]

Kinda clownish though he may be, Schefter floated a scenario where Arizona trades Rosen and drafts Murray. I'm not sure where he ends up going, but 5th round seems low given the feast or (more commonly) famine nature of NFL QB play.

@RapSheet: Checked with a high-ranking #AZCardinals source, who called this notion of trading QB Josh Rosen: "Ludicrous. Not happening."

[jficke13]

@RapSheet: Checked with a high-ranking #AZCardinals source, who called this notion of trading QB Josh Rosen: "Ludicrous. Not happening."

Yeah, seemed far-fetched to me too.

Still think Murray goes in Rds 1-3 rather than 4-7 though. Who knows?

I saw something that basically said that a 1st Rd pick will make more guaranteed money on his first deal than Murray could possibly make until his first arbitration year deal (which could be 5-10 years away). If he gets 1st round attention, I wouldn't be shocked if he and agent communicated that football trumped baseball for him and that would discount the "he's splitting time" detraction.

Edited to add: This is what I saw:

"Baseball's financial system is so badly skewed toward older players; if he were to stay with the A's and take just two years to reach the majors (which would be pretty fast), he'd then have three seasons making around $500k before seeing anything approaching real money. It's not just possible, but expected that he would reach 26 or 27 and have something like $6.5m in career earnings (including the $4.7m signing bonus), and that's if he makes it at all. He'd get more than double that in guaranteed money if drafted in the middle of the first round as a QB."

-- Deadspin commenter (yeah, consider the source, but that squares with my general observations of baseball contracts and the lengths teams go to protect team control at low cost contracts)

We'll see <shrugs>

[Pakuni]

Yeah, seemed far-fetched to me too.

Still think Murray goes in Rds 1-3 rather than 4-7 though. Who knows?

I saw something that basically said that a 1st Rd pick will make more guaranteed money on his first deal than Murray could possibly make until his first arbitration year deal (which could be 5-10 years away). If he gets 1st round attention, I wouldn't be shocked if he and agent communicated that football trumped baseball for him and that would discount the "he's splitting time" detraction.

Edited to add: This is what I saw:

"Baseball's financial system is so badly skewed toward older players; if he were to stay with the A's and take just two years to reach the majors (which would be pretty fast), he'd then have three seasons making around $500k before seeing anything approaching real money. It's not just possible, but expected that he would reach 26 or 27 and have something like $6.5m in career earnings (including the $4.7m signing bonus), and that's if he makes it at all. He'd get more than double that in guaranteed money if drafted in the middle of the first round as a QB."

-- Deadspin commenter (yeah, consider the source, but that squares with my general observations of baseball contracts and the lengths teams go to protect team control at low cost contracts)

We'll see <shrugs>

If Murray knew he could play only 4-5 years in either sport and would likely be taken in the first round of the NFL draft, he may be better off with football.
But I'd be surprised if he goes that early in the NFL Draft (5'10" with an average, by NFL standards, arm + possibility of hightailing it back to baseball) or has a baseball career that lasts just 4-5 years.

[CreightonWarrior]

Sounds like the Steelers are making Antonio Brown available.

[Pakuni]

Sounds like the Steelers are making Antonio Brown available.

The cap implications of trading him will be very bad, especially if they do it before June 1.

[jesmu84]

The average length of career for these four guys is 13.5 years.
The average career length of an NFL quarterback is 4.4 years.
So maybe comparing career earnings of players who've lasted three times longer than the average isn't the most accurate way to go about this.

For fairness sake, how about comparing career earnings of longtime middling position players?
Mike Napoli just retired after a 13-year career in which he earned $85.1 million.
In 11 years, Brett Gardner has earned $64.6 million and has $7.5 million more coming this year.
In 11 years, Dexter Fowler has earned $65.7 million and is owed another $49 million more (nice job, Cardinals)
Over 14 years, Melky Cabrera has earned $71.6 million

Apples to apples says baseball is the better move.

That's assuming Murray makes a roster in the majors.

If he just sticks in the NFL, he makes closer to the top money vs playing a career in the minors.

[Cheeks]

@RapSheet: Checked with a high-ranking #AZCardinals source, who called this notion of trading QB Josh Rosen: "Ludicrous. Not happening."

Could be, but Adam Schefter had it on ESPN today as a possibility.  Of course through the years clubs have denied a lot of things and did them anyway.  It was supposedly ludicrous when the Cowboys took a QB in the first round after they took Aikman with the very first pick, but they did anyway with Steve Walsh.

As for where he would be drafted, he's slotted in the first round by many gurus, and second round by others.  Even if he was mid level second round pick, he makes more money than the A's are giving him, and that's on one NFL contract.

[Cheeks]

The average length of career for these four guys is 13.5 years.
The average career length of an NFL quarterback is 4.4 years.
So maybe comparing career earnings of players who've lasted three times longer than the average isn't the most accurate way to go about this.

For fairness sake, how about comparing career earnings of longtime middling position players?
Mike Napoli just retired after a 13-year career in which he earned $85.1 million.
In 11 years, Brett Gardner has earned $64.6 million and has $7.5 million more coming this year.
In 11 years, Dexter Fowler has earned $65.7 million and is owed another $49 million more (nice job, Cardinals)
Over 14 years, Melky Cabrera has earned $71.6 million

Apples to apples says baseball is the better move.

But for fairness sake they were comparing QB's to QB's, I just copy and pasted.  Not sure those are apples to apples just yet because baseball doesn't even know where he will play.  Is it SS, 2nd base, or the Outfield?  Napoli was a catcher / 1B / DH power hitter, is that the same type of bball player Murray will be?  I don't know, but Napoli stuck around because of his power.   Murray has some power, but it's unknown how well he does with a wooden bat with MLB pitching.

If this was any position by QB, I'd agree with you 100%.  Because it is QB, it makes it intriguing and a more complex question because of the guarantees QBs get in the NFL.

[Cheeks]

That's assuming Murray makes a roster in the majors.

If he just sticks in the NFL, he makes closer to the top money vs playing a career in the minors.

BINGO

Landing in the majors is tough and lots of burnouts.  Almost unheard of for a first round NFL pick to get cut, even 2nd rounders extremely rare, which means the first contract and the guarantee that goes with it is there.  The list of bball players drafted in the first rounds that don't make it to the majors is long.  There have been 15 guys drafted in the top 3 spots that never made it, including three overall #1's.  But when you include top ten picks in the first round, that list of never making it grows quite a bit, much much much higher than the NFL.  Murray was drafted 9th overall in baseball.

[Pakuni]

BINGO

Landing in the majors is tough and lots of burnouts.  Almost unheard of for a first round NFL pick to get cut, even 2nd rounders extremely rare, which means the first contract and the guarantee that goes with it is there.  The list of bball players drafted in the first rounds that don't make it to the majors is long.  There have been 15 guys drafted in the top 3 spots that never made it, including three overall #1's.  But when you include top ten picks in the first round, that list of never making it grows quite a bit, much much much higher than the NFL.  Murray was drafted 9th overall in baseball.

But the issue really isn't making MLB vs NFL. If Murray's only concern was "making it" and not long-term earnings, you're right, football is the choice.
But what really matters is earning that first big contract. And the odds of that aren't any better in the NFL than MLB. For argument's sake, let's say Murray goes somewhere between mid 1st and the 2nd round. Here's the list of QBs drafted in that range between 2004-1014. By my count, only 7 of 26 (Rodgers, Flacco, Dalton, Kaepernick, Osweiler, Carr and Garoppolo) got that big contract. A handful stuck around a few years as lowly paid backups and the rest are out of the league.


JP Losman
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Kellen Clemens
Tavaris Jackson'
Brady Quinn
Kevin Kolb
John Beck
Drew Stanton
Joe Flacco
Brian Brohm
Chad Henne
John Freeman
Pat White
Tim Tebow
Jimmy Clausen
Andy Dalton
Colin Kaepernick
Brandon Weeden
Brock Osweiler
EJ Manuel
Geno Smith
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Derek Carr
Jimmy Garoppolo

Now, compared with top 10 MLB picks (I won't list them all), but between the 2004-14 drafts, top 10 picks produced 33 all stars .... and that's not including several star players just outside the top 10 (Scherzer, Sale, McCutcheon, Grandal, Springer).
So, yeah, a player taken in the top 10 of the MLB draft has a better chance at major long-term earning potential than a QB taken in the mid-first or second.
And we're not even talking about injury potential with a 5'10", 190-pound running QB (see: Griffin, Robert), longevity long-term health, etc.

But if all that matters is making a roster, then football is where he should go.

[Dish]

Chuck Pagano your new Bears DC.

[MU B2002]

Don't hate it.

[wadesworld]

CJ Anderson looks like he's been eating a lot of In-N-Out since heading out West. He is gashing the Boiz though.

[wadesworld]

Two hand touch tonight?

[jesmu84]

Two hand touch tonight?

Evens out some of those roughing the passer calls

[wadesworld]

Evens out some of those roughing the passer calls

There was a play I think a drive earlier that I'm almost certain a Rams pass rusher pulled up from sacking Dak while he had Dak in his grasp to avoid a roughing the passer after Dak pump faked the throw, freeing up Dak. Suh ended up getting a hit on Dak and Dak overthrew the receiver anyway but it could've really hurt the Rams.

[MUEng92]

This really sucks having to choose between rooting for the Cowboys or for a team that employs Ndamukong Suh.

Cowboy hate has been around longer for me though

[wadesworld]

This really sucks having to choose between rooting for the Cowboys or for a team that employs Ndamukong Suh.

Cowboy hate has been around longer for me though

I can overlook one clown on a roster of 53 players. This Rams team is just fun to watch. I'm really pulling for a KC vs. LAR Super Bowl. That'd be incredibly entertaining.

[Dish]

Through 3 Divisional games, the team coming off a bye has clobbered their opponents. Interesting too all 3 were high rated offenses versus teams with high rated defenses.

Saints are -6 first half.

[jesmu84]

https://www.barstoolsports.com/chicago/breaking-rob-ryan-might-be-coming-to-chicago

[Cheeks]

Cowboys third youngest team in NFL.  Rams the 4th youngest.  Going to be a fun next few years.

[Cheeks]

https://www.barstoolsports.com/chicago/breaking-rob-ryan-might-be-coming-to-chicago

He was our def cord for awhile.....not a good showing for us but maybe he works for Bears.

[forgetful]

Cowboys third youngest team in NFL.  Rams the 4th youngest.  Going to be a fun next few years.

My bet. Cowboys don't even make the playoff next year.

[Cheeks]

My bet. Cowboys don't even make the playoff next year.

With the clapping ginger on the sidelines, you are probably right.....but who knows.  Defense is very young, will get better.  A lot depends on Dak and what they do with him.