MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Arenado signs for basically what the White Sox offered Machado. He's a couple of years older, true - was this a bit of a home town discount?

Nolan wasn't a free agent, so I think this new deal is basically the Rockies' answer to an extension request.

[Lennys Tap]

Nolan wasn't a free agent, so I think this new deal is basically the Rockies' answer to an extension request.

I'm aware of that, but he was due for free agency after the 2019 season.

[buckchuckler]

Arenado signs for basically what the White Sox offered Machado. He's a couple of years older, true - was this a bit of a home town discount?

Higher AAV and an opt out.  To go along with the fact that he is two years older.  This looks like a significantly better deal than what the Sox offered Macahdo in my opinion.

[GB Warrior]

Arenado signs for basically what the White Sox offered Machado. He's a couple of years older, true - was this a bit of a home town discount?

It was every bit an "Oh sh!t the owners will make me sweat it out til March 2020" signing.

[Lennys Tap]

Higher AAV and an opt out.  To go along with the fact that he is two years older.  This looks like a significantly better deal than what the Sox offered Macahdo in my opinion.

No vesting option on the back end, though. I would agree it's a little better but wouldn't say significantly.

[buckchuckler]

No vesting option on the back end, though. I would agree it's a little better but wouldn't say significantly.

And full no trade.

[buckchuckler]

It was every bit an "Oh sh!t the owners will make me sweat it out til March 2020" signing.

I don't know.  This has been the Rockies procedure.  They seem to lock up their guys before free agency.

[wadesworld]

Marquette High alum Jeff Bridich locking down Arenado, hey?

[WarriorDad]

Great post!  Your idea of something may or may not happen was truly prophetic!

Not many had the Padres as one of those possible happenings

[wadesworld]

Not many had the Padres as one of those possible happenings

Lol. Them and the Phillies have been listed with just about every big name on the market this offseason, including Machado and Harper.

But congrats Chicos, only you thought Machado might, or might not, end up in SD!

[buckchuckler]

Not many had the Padres as one of those possible happenings

Uhhh, it was being widely, widely reported that they had been meeting with Machado by that time.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/padres-met-recently-with-manny-machado.html

Date from that story was Feb. 14. 

[buckchuckler]

I may be interpreting this incorrectly, but I believe I just saw that Arenado has the ability to opt out after each of the years after year 5.

[Jockey]

I may be interpreting this incorrectly, but I believe I just saw that Arenado has the ability to opt out after each of the years after year 5.

My understanding was that he has an opt out after 3 years. I thought it was just a one time thing, but I haven't got all the details yet.

[The Sultan]

My understanding was that he has an opt out after 3 years. I thought it was just a one time thing, but I haven't got all the details yet.

3 years gives him an opt out after the current CBA expires.  Don't think that's a coincidence.

[buckchuckler]

My understanding was that he has an opt out after 3 years. I thought it was just a one time thing, but I haven't got all the details yet.

Ah.  Ok this is correct.   I was misunderstanding a Jon Heyman tweet.

[buckchuckler]

Harper to Philly, terms forthcoming.

Edit:  Sounds like 13/330.

[GB Warrior]

Harper to Philly, terms forthcoming.

Edit:  Sounds like 13/330.

Probably smart to look at length and total value than AAV. It's been tough sledding for players to get any sort of contract in their age 36/37 years, so lock in that value now. There's risk that he will have left some money on the table, but Machado would have to get 3 years, 30 million in his old age to make up for it. I'd take Harpers deal. I would also take Manny Pina's deal if anyone is offering.

[buckchuckler]

Probably smart to look at length and total value than AAV. It's been tough sledding for players to get any sort of contract in their age 36/37 years, so lock in that value now. There's risk that he will have left some money on the table, but Machado would have to get 3 years, 30 million in his old age to make up for it. I'd take Harpers deal. I would also take Manny Pina's deal if anyone is offering.

I thought Philly had one of the best offseasons before signing Harper.  This just locks it up.  They had work to do, they were just terrible in the 2nd half last year, but with their improvements, they should be really good.  They signed McCutchen (they don't need mvp McCutch, he still delivered basically an .800 OPS last year), they got Segura to play SS, Realmuto to catch, Robertson to close, and of course Harper. 

Segura
Hernanderz
Hoskins
Harper
Realmuto
McCutchen
Herrera
Franco


Hmmm, not sure how I'd work the lineup, there is my first thought, but there is a lot of power there.  Herrera and Franco could each hit 20, and they may be the worst hitters in the lineup. 

Their bullpen should be good, Dominguez and Robertson don't match what the Mets have, but it is passable certainly. 
The only question is their rotation.  Nola and Arrieta are solid as 1-2, but they are shaky after that.  I wonder if they still have any of that "stupid money" to spend on Keuchel. 

The NL East will be a bear this year.  Four really strong teams.  The Mets got better, the Nats improved (even with losing Harper I think they'll be fine) and the Braves won the division last year and are still loaded with young talent that could get even better.  The Marlins are probably looking at the first overall pick next time around. 

[MUBurrow]

The NL East will be a bear this year.  Four really strong teams.  The Mets got better, the Nats improved (even with losing Harper I think they'll be fine) and the Braves won the division last year and are still loaded with young talent that could get even better.  The Marlins are probably looking at the first overall pick next time around.

This is spot on. Last year, the NL East was arguably the most pitcher friendly division in baseball.  It collectively had the worst OPS of any division (though only .001 worse than the AL Central).  This year, I wouldn't be surprised if it were neck and neck with the Central for best in the NL and both of those should beat the AL Central too.

[jesmu84]

If I remember twitter correctly from this afternoon, Mets will still be paying Bonilla for 4 years AFTER Bryce's contract is complete.

Holy crap.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

If I remember twitter correctly from this afternoon, Mets will still be paying Bonilla for 4 years AFTER Bryce's contract is complete.

Holy crap.

Bartoli colon will be 58 and probably playing with Harper on the Phils.

[Lennys Tap]

Probably smart to look at length and total value than AAV. It's been tough sledding for players to get any sort of contract in their age 36/37 years, so lock in that value now. There's risk that he will have left some money on the table, but Machado would have to get 3 years, 30 million in his old age to make up for it. I'd take Harpers deal. I would also take Manny Pina's deal if anyone is offering.

Manny has an opt out, Harper supposedly doesn't. I think Manny got the better deal.

[🏀]

Manny has an opt out, Harper supposedly doesn't. I think Manny got the better deal.

Manny won the off-season.

[MU82]

Harper could have gotten more per season from the deal the Nats originally offered: 10 years, $300M.

This one essentially gives him $10M for each of Year 11, Year 12 and Year 13. So if he is still productive as an old man (such as Bonds, Ortiz, etc), he will be the bargain of bargains then. If he is the more typical guy who fades and/or gets hurt, he will pocket an extra $30M for just sittin' on his old arse.

Hard to say either one is a bad deal!

I mean, $10M a year for sitting on your arse ... that's almost double what I get!

[buckchuckler]

Harper could have gotten more per season from the deal the Nats originally offered: 10 years, $300M.

This one essentially gives him $10M for each of Year 11, Year 12 and Year 13. So if he is still productive as an old man (such as Bonds, Ortiz, etc), he will be the bargain of bargains then. If he is the more typical guy who fades and/or gets hurt, he will pocket an extra $30M for just sittin' on his old arse.

Hard to say either one is a bad deal!

I mean, $10M a year for sitting on your arse ... that's almost double what I get!

It was also reported that there was 100 million in that Nats deal deferred and he would have been paid until age 60... Bonilla would have been impressed with that, but it would certainly negatively impact the NPV of that offer.