MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season

[buckchuckler]

Feel for the WS fans.

Feel for Hahn. $300m was likely always the number, you signed his guys and probably had a Jordan contact ready to go as well. Literally the cornerstone to the AL Central crown and Jerry pulled the reigns back?

Also, why the hell was Kenny out talking at all? There should've been one response from Rick and that's it. Kenny needs to get the unnatural carnal knowledge out faster than GarPax. Hahn is the savant in a class of dunces on the south side.

Nah. He fits right in.  He has made 2 good moves in like 10 years.  The Q trade and the Eaton trade.  Sale was so easy anyone could have gotten a good return. 

His signings are basically all disasters.  He gave away Tatis, who is more highly regarded than Eloy in most cases.  He is every bit the disaster the other guys are.  I wish I could have faith they would pivot this money to Harper and realize what it takes to get a top level player, but I don't.

Ugh.  Really wish there were an MU game tonight.

[wadesworld]

OK, well that is different than saying "San Diego or Chicago... tough choice."  isn't it?

Well I mean even if everything is equal in terms of money it's not a hard choice at all either.

You responded with "Well then every free agent should sign in San Diego."  Well, obviously that's pretty flawed given that there are 29 other baseball rosters that need to be filled, so...

[buckchuckler]

Well I mean even if everything is equal in terms of money it's not a hard choice at all either.

You responded with "Well then every free agent should sign in San Diego."  Well, obviously that's pretty flawed given that there are 29 other baseball rosters that need to be filled, so...

Ok great point.  You are right.  Sorry I engaged with you.

[Pakuni]

Nah. He fits right in.  He has made 2 good moves in like 10 years.  The Q trade and the Eaton trade.  Sale was so easy anyone could have gotten a good return. 

His signings are basically all disasters.  He gave away Tatis, who is more highly regarded than Eloy in most cases.  He is every bit the disaster the other guys are.  I wish I could have faith they would pivot this money to Harper and realize what it takes to get a top level player, but I don't.

Ugh.  Really wish there were an MU game tonight.

Given that Hahn has been GM for only five years, I'm not going to hold him responsible for 10 years of moves.
That said, you're being a bit harsh and forgetting some of the other good deals he's made:
- Hector Santiago and Brandon Jacobs for Adam Eaton
- Omar Narvaez in the Rule 5, then flipping him this year for Alex Colome
- Flipped Frazier and Robertson for Rutherford
- Picked up Palka off waivers

And this doesn't include some really astute drafting and international signings the past few years (Madrigal, Robert, Hansen, Gonzalez, Adolfo, Fry, Hamilton, Burger if he can stay healthy, etc.).
The Tatis deal obviously turned out badly, but in fairness, Tatis was a 17-year-old who'd never played in the States at the time. He was a throw-in in that deal. Erik Johnson was the main return San Diego wanted in that deal.

Hahn's definitely been a mixed bag, but I think the sting of the day's news is clouding your judgment here.

[buckchuckler]

Given that Hahn has been GM for only five years, I'm not going to hold him responsible for 10 years of moves.
That said, you're being a bit harsh and forgetting some of the other good deals he's made:
- Hector Santiago and Brandon Jacobs for Adam Eaton
- Omar Narvaez in the Rule 5, then flipping him this year for Alex Colome
- Flipped Frazier and Robertson for Rutherford
- Picked up Palka off waivers

And this doesn't include some really astute drafting and international signings the past few years (Madrigal, Robert, Hansen, Gonzalez, Adolfo, Fry, Hamilton, Burger if he can stay healthy, etc.).
The Tatis deal obviously turned out badly, but in fairness, Tatis was a 17-year-old who'd never played in the States at the time. He was a throw-in in that deal. Erik Johnson was the main return San Diego wanted in that deal.

Hahn's definitely been a mixed bag, but I think the sting of the day's news is clouding your judgment here.

Your number 1. definitely. 
Number 2.  Well, just happened, jury is still out there right? 
Number 3. Jury still out right, he was good last year but a corner OF with limited power in A ball, is not quite a sure thing.  1 decent player, and a really solid reliever and a high risk/reward (Kahnle) reliever for 1 real prospect, isn't exactly a home run.  I have high hopes for Rutherford, but can't count that as a win just yet. 
I love Palka.  I hate that he isn't going to DH because of Yonder Alonso.  He is also likely a platoon DH.  Who has had 1 year.  A bit early to call it a rousing success.

The draft picks are hazy at best.  Fulmer (teammates with some other 1st round pitcher, what is his name Buehler, Buehler)  Collins (hmmm Whitley????), way to early to tell on the others, Madrigal looks like a nice player, and I have hopes for Burger, but he looks like a first round DH, so he'd better mash.  And when we are touting guys like Hamilton and Fry (Hahn wasn't GM but anyways) it is hard to build your system on relievers.  Most of their high end talent is because they had to sell high end MLB talent because they couldn't build a team.  Robert and Madrigal are the exceptions.

Can't take credit for this, but here are all of Hahn's free agent signings:

2012-13

Dewayne Wise

Jeff Keppinger

Tony Pena

Matt Lindstrom

2013-14

Jose Abreu (skeptical if it counts)

Zack Putnam

Felipe Paulino

Ronald Belisario

Scott Downs

Dylan Axelrod

Brian Omogrosso

2014-15

Junior Guerra (let go for nothing later)

Zack Duke

Adam LaRoche

David Robertson

Melky Cabrera

Brad Penny

Emilio Bonifacio

Geovany Soto

Scott Carroll

Jesse Crain

Gordon Beckham

Nicky Delmonico

Matt Albers

2015-16

Matt Purke

Alex Avila

Dioner Navarro

Jacob Turner

Matt Albers

Mat Latos

Jimmy Rollins

Austin Jackson

Chris Volstad

2016-17

Derek Holland

Cody Asche

Everth Cabrera

Geovany Soto

Gregory Infante

Anthony Swarzak

Peter Bourjas

2017-18

Matt Skole

Welington Castillo

Miguel Gonzalez

Chris Volstad

Xavier Cedeno

Jeanmar Gomez

Bruce Rondon

Hector Santiago

2018-19

James McCann

Kelvin Herrerra

Jon Jay

That is some ugly stuff. 

And even Adolfo, of whom I am a big fan, they scouted and decided to spe d big on him instead of Eloy and Gleybar.  That looks like another scouting miss.
 

[Lennys Tap]

Given that Hahn has been GM for only five years, I'm not going to hold him responsible for 10 years of moves.
That said, you're being a bit harsh and forgetting some of the other good deals he's made:
- Hector Santiago and Brandon Jacobs for Adam Eaton
- Omar Narvaez in the Rule 5, then flipping him this year for Alex Colome
- Flipped Frazier and Robertson for Rutherford
- Picked up Palka off waivers

And this doesn't include some really astute drafting and international signings the past few years (Madrigal, Robert, Hansen, Gonzalez, Adolfo, Fry, Hamilton, Burger if he can stay healthy, etc.).
The Tatis deal obviously turned out badly, but in fairness, Tatis was a 17-year-old who'd never played in the States at the time. He was a throw-in in that deal. Erik Johnson was the main return San Diego wanted in that deal.

Hahn's definitely been a mixed bag, but I think the sting of the day's news is clouding your judgment here.

I agree that Jerry and Kenny are the big problem, not Hahn. He's limited by what they allow him to do.

I further agree that he's made some good moves but (and it's a big but) even though Tatis was only 17 either San Diego was shrewd enough to ask for him or we were dumb enough to offer. He became a top prospect in a very short time, so there must have been something there at 17. Worst of all it was for James Shields, an over the hill puss arm with a big salary who wasn't worth a bag of baseballs.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Kenny’s buddy, Dave Wilder, set the White Sox back two decades.  Hahn has deftly tried to build back the minor leagues.

[buckchuckler]

Kenny’s buddy, Dave Wilder, set the White Sox back two decades.  Hahn has deftly tried to build back the minor leagues.

If by deftly you mean teading All Stars, then yes.

Missing out on Manny isn't even what has me worked up.  It is the crap show circus of the whole thing.  It is Jay and Alonso.  It is 2 years of "we've planned for this offseason" it is not competing with the financial might of the Padres.  It is the "we tried so hard".  It is the whole bloody circus. 

It sure doesn't seem like an abundance of competence.

You are sure right about Wilder though.

[Dr. Blackheart]

If by deftly you mean teading All Stars, then yes.

Missing out on Manny isn't even what has me worked up.  It is the crap show circus of the whole thing.  It is Jay and Alonso.  It is 2 years of "we've planned for this offseason" it is not competing with the financial might of the Padres.  It is the "we tried so hard".  It is the whole bloody circus. 

It sure doesn't seem like an abundance of competence.

You are sure right about Wilder though.

I said “deftly tried”. 

I worked for an original investor with Jerry in the White Sox and Bulls.  They ring in the money when they are down.  Lose or break even when they are up, but they drive up valuation.  Their formula is a financial cycle.  The Sox have been down for too long but they are willing to spend.  The problem is/was that Wilder raped them and left the minors with nothing.  No name free agent was going to sign with them as there is no supporting cast.

For the first time in years, the Bulls aren’t selling out.  The formula is broken.  Michael needs to take over.

[DegenerateDish]

The economic reality for 2019 is that even when attendance will be poor this season, the Sox will be drowning in cash. They have been and will continue to be vastly profitable.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The economic reality for 2019 is that even when attendance will be poor this season, the Sox will be drowning in cash. They have been and will continue to be vastly profitable.

Jerry’s stadium real estate deal is still brilliant 30 years later.

[WarriorDad]

Breaking news!

They could also land neither.

Breaking news!

They did land one. 

[Pakuni]

buck,

I'm not going to do a blow-by-blow response because I don't think anyone here (including your or I) care that much.
But I'm even more convinced you're being unduly harsh and some of your criticisms here are, respectfully, kind of silly.

- The free agent list is dumb. Every team signs lots of AAAA guys every year to fill their Triple A roster and serve as call ups when necessary. And the Sox haven't been trying to win for three years, so obviously Hahn isn't going to be doing significant free agent deals. It is fair to say he's whiffed on some (Laroche, Rollins), but find me a GM who hasn't.

- Same with the draft. If your criticism is that Hahn hasn't hit on every pick, well, OK. Find me a GM who has. The fact remains that he's drafted really well. And yes, Fry (2104) and Hamilton (2016) were drafted by Hahn. And no one said they ought to "build their system" on relievers. But if you don't think teams win today by building a deep and (preferably) young and cheap bullpen, you haven't been watching baseball.

- You list Abreu's signing here, but not as one of Hahn 's "two good moves?" So, signing one of the league's top hitting 1Bs at an extraordinarily cheap rate given his production was not a good move in your book. Noted.

- You dismiss the Rutherford deal, but the fact is he turned assets that had no long-term value/future with the club into a top 10 prospect in a stacked system and a guy who could contribute at the major league level for years to come. I'm not as concerned about his power. He slugged .436 as a 21-year-old in High A,  which is comparable or better than guys like AJ Pollock, Chris Taylor and Trey Mancini, among others, at that age and level. Obviously doesn't mean Rutherford ever will reach the level of those guys, but his power numbers aren't troublesome either.

- Pretty sure I didn't use the phrase "rousing success" in reference to Palka. But yeah, snaring a lefthanded bat capable of hitting 27 HRs and slugging .484 off waivers is a good move. We'll have to agree to disagree on that.

Look, as I said, Hahn's been a mixed bag. He's done some things really well (built a top level system) and some other things not so well (major league scouting/roster management). But to suggest he's made only two good moves is unduly harsh and not accurate.

[Lennys Tap]

Word now that in addition to being for less guaranteed years and money, there was no "opt out" clause in the offer because the White Sox are philosophically opposed to them. Earth to the Sox:why bother with the likes of Machado or Harper? Opt outs were bound to be part of their deals.

Like Hahn or not, he had no chance with Machado or Harper due to $ restrictions and out of date "philosophical" restrictions.

[Pakuni]

Word now that in addition to being for less guaranteed years and money, there was no "opt out" clause in the offer because the White Sox are philosophically opposed to them. Earth to the Sox:why bother with the likes of Machado or Harper? Opt outs were bound to be part of their deals.

Like Hahn or not, he had no chance with Machado or Harper due to $ restrictions and out of date "philosophical" restrictions.

Yeah, the no opt thing is a very bad look and is going to be detrimental to the Sox going forward if they don't change that dumb "philosophy."

[wadesworld]

Maybe I'm just jaded because my team can't afford to give a single player $30M/year for an entire decade, but I would never want my team to give someone that kind of contract.  I'd much rather my team take advantage of the talented players who aren't getting the long term deals they are hoping for, like Grandall and Moose.  Obviously it wouldn't make sense for a team multiple years away from contending to give productive veterans one year deals, and I suppose it can be a turning point for a franchise to get the younger star player in there for the long term and then build around him, but how many times do these 10 year deals really work out?

I guess when you give an ARod contract and you win a title with him it "worked out," but the Yankees are made of money and if they didn't sign ARod to that deal they would've signed some other star for a similar contract.  Otherwise of the 10 biggest contracts in the history of the MLB, not many end up being great for the team that gave out those contracts.

Giancarlo?  Not great for Miami, who gave him the contract.
Macahdo?  TBD
ARod Yankees - Paid off, but they can get away with it even if ARod doesn't perform to that level.  Not sure that's the case with the White Sox, or about 25 other teams.
ARod Rangers - Not great for the Rangers
Miguel Cabrera - Not great so far for the Tigers
Pujols - Not great for the Angels
Cano - Not great for the Mariners
Votto - He's been awesome, but the Reds haven't
Price - Finally paid off in the Playoffs this year, but overall I'd say the Sox wouldn't do this deal again if they could go back in time knowing what they do now.
Kershaw - Obviously great, but no WS titles yet

And even Greinke, etc.

Just don't think $30M/year for a decade is a good idea no matter how young and good the player is.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The Brewers could pay someone $30M a year for a decade. MLB revenues have exploded over the last decade. They could sign Harper and not only still make money but be under the luxury tax threshold.

Not that they should for many of the reasons you state, but they could most certainly afford to.

[buckchuckler]

buck,

I'm not going to do a blow-by-blow response because I don't think anyone here (including your or I) care that much.
But I'm even more convinced you're being unduly harsh and some of your criticisms here are, respectfully, kind of silly.

- The free agent list is dumb. Every team signs lots of AAAA guys every year to fill their Triple A roster and serve as call ups when necessary. And the Sox haven't been trying to win for three years, so obviously Hahn isn't going to be doing significant free agent deals. It is fair to say he's whiffed on some (Laroche, Rollins), but find me a GM who hasn't.

- Same with the draft. If your criticism is that Hahn hasn't hit on every pick, well, OK. Find me a GM who has. The fact remains that he's drafted really well. And yes, Fry (2104) and Hamilton (2016) were drafted by Hahn. And no one said they ought to "build their system" on relievers. But if you don't think teams win today by building a deep and (preferably) young and cheap bullpen, you haven't been watching baseball.

- You list Abreu's signing here, but not as one of Hahn 's "two good moves?" So, signing one of the league's top hitting 1Bs at an extraordinarily cheap rate given his production was not a good move in your book. Noted.

- You dismiss the Rutherford deal, but the fact is he turned assets that had no long-term value/future with the club into a top 10 prospect in a stacked system and a guy who could contribute at the major league level for years to come. I'm not as concerned about his power. He slugged .436 as a 21-year-old in High A,  which is comparable or better than guys like AJ Pollock, Chris Taylor and Trey Mancini, among others, at that age and level. Obviously doesn't mean Rutherford ever will reach the level of those guys, but his power numbers aren't troublesome either.

- Pretty sure I didn't use the phrase "rousing success" in reference to Palka. But yeah, snaring a lefthanded bat capable of hitting 27 HRs and slugging .484 off waivers is a good move. We'll have to agree to disagree on that.

Look, as I said, Hahn's been a mixed bag. He's done some things really well (built a top level system) and some other things not so well (major league scouting/roster management). But to suggest he's made only two good moves is unduly harsh and not accurate.

Ok, I am on board with Rutherford and Palka.  I don't dislike either of them as players and I really like Rutherford's ceiling.  That he hit a ton of 2Bs last year is very encouraging.  And obviously Abreu. 

Hahn has done some things well.  He has done things poorly, but mostly it has been the same crap show circus. The more that they talk about this the worse it gets.  How do they not that a 300M guarantee is better than 250 with options that are easily manipulated?  It just show ignorance, or incompetence.  At the outset of the offseason, I bet most people would have predicted exactly 10/300 for Manny.  The fact that the Sox could't go there shows they were full of it. 

The only thing from preventing them from becoming the Bulls is that it is easier to trade for develop-able assets in the MLB.  Sox fans just have to hope that every prospect hits.  Because they can't play with the big boys, or in this case, even the other little brothers. 

It mostly, to me, comes down to this, and I don't know why Hahn gets any benefit of the doubt.  From the drafting, to the free agents, it is the same old song.  The same old swing and misses as it has been for 10 years (or more on the drafting and development side).

[buckchuckler]

Maybe I'm just jaded because my team can't afford to give a single player $30M/year for an entire decade, but I would never want my team to give someone that kind of contract.  I'd much rather my team take advantage of the talented players who aren't getting the long term deals they are hoping for, like Grandall and Moose.  Obviously it wouldn't make sense for a team multiple years away from contending to give productive veterans one year deals, and I suppose it can be a turning point for a franchise to get the younger star player in there for the long term and then build around him, but how many times do these 10 year deals really work out?

I guess when you give an ARod contract and you win a title with him it "worked out," but the Yankees are made of money and if they didn't sign ARod to that deal they would've signed some other star for a similar contract.  Otherwise of the 10 biggest contracts in the history of the MLB, not many end up being great for the team that gave out those contracts.

Giancarlo?  Not great for Miami, who gave him the contract.
Macahdo?  TBD
ARod Yankees - Paid off, but they can get away with it even if ARod doesn't perform to that level.  Not sure that's the case with the White Sox, or about 25 other teams.
ARod Rangers - Not great for the Rangers
Miguel Cabrera - Not great so far for the Tigers
Pujols - Not great for the Angels
Cano - Not great for the Mariners
Votto - He's been awesome, but the Reds haven't
Price - Finally paid off in the Playoffs this year, but overall I'd say the Sox wouldn't do this deal again if they could go back in time knowing what they do now.
Kershaw - Obviously great, but no WS titles yet

And even Greinke, etc.

Just don't think $30M/year for a decade is a good idea no matter how young and good the player is.

I pretty much agree, and honestly if they were spending the money I would rather it go to Harper.  As I said, it isn't even not getting Manny that has irritated me the most.  It was the manner in which it happened.  They look like clowns. 

[buckchuckler]

Word now that in addition to being for less guaranteed years and money, there was no "opt out" clause in the offer because the White Sox are philosophically opposed to them. Earth to the Sox:why bother with the likes of Machado or Harper? Opt outs were bound to be part of their deals.

Like Hahn or not, he had no chance with Machado or Harper due to $ restrictions and out of date "philosophical" restrictions.

Another example of the clowniness of this whole process.  Everyone who follows baseball knew there would be opt outs.  If the Sox weren't serious, they shouldn't have pretended. 

[buckchuckler]

Breaking news!

They did land one.

Great post!  Your idea of something may or may not happen was truly prophetic! 

[Lennys Tap]

Another example of the clowniness of this whole process.  Everyone who follows baseball knew there would be opt outs.  If the Sox weren't serious, they shouldn't have pretended.

Hahn praised his people for their creativity in putting together a competitive offer for Machado. Translation: We weren't allowed (by ownership) to guarantee 10years and we weren't allowed (by ownership) to include an opt out (the two things Machado wanted most) so we offered "vesting options" for years 9 and 10 that COULD have put the contract north of 300 million. LOL. JR being too cute by half - Sox were only in it if they were the only bidder.

[buckchuckler]

Hahn praised his people for their creativity in putting together a competitive offer for Machado. Translation: We weren't allowed (by ownership) to guarantee 10years and we weren't allowed (by ownership) to include an opt out (the two things Machado wanted most) so we offered "vesting options" for years 9 and 10 that COULD have put the contract north of 300 million. LOL. JR being too cute by half - Sox were only in it if they were the only bidder.

They're a joke.  No one expects them to be where the Yankees or Dodgers, or even the Cubs are payroll wise.  But they should be able to be middle of the pack.  They should be able to out work the Padres, who already have bad contracts.  They should be able to maintain a payroll equivalent to the Indians.

Keep in mind that between Nova, Alonso, Jay, Colome and Herrera (none of whom will help the next good Sox team) they spent about 40 million.  Gosh, could there have been a more productive, future thinking, way to have spent that money?

[WI inferiority Complexes]

We weren't allowed (by ownership) to guarantee 10years

I guess they couldn't meet his... Guaranteed Rate.

[jesmu84]

Reinsdorf.