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Author Topic: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season  (Read 30137 times)

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #50 on: October 22, 2018, 11:08:20 AM »
Cubs narrowly avoided the luxury tax last season and will have a tough time getting under it next year even without signing Harper or Machado.
A $240 million payroll like the one you're talking about would mean they're paying an additional 20 percent (so $48 million) and then 30 percent the year after that ($72 million). Are the Ricketts really willing to go there?

Could be wrong here, but I believe they only pay the tax on the amount they are over.  So they would pay the tax on 240, but on about 32.  I think...
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MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #51 on: October 22, 2018, 11:22:48 AM »
Could be wrong here, but I believe they only pay the tax on the amount they are over.  So they would pay the tax on 240, but on about 32.  I think...

That's right, you pay tax on the overages - 20% in year one, then 30% in year two, then 50% if you're in the tax 3+ consecutive years. But there are also surtaxes based on how far over the threshold you are. If you're more than $20M over, you pay an additional 12%, and if your'e more than $40M over you pay an additional 42.5-45%.  Here's a pretty good summary of how it works and the thresholds for the next couple years - http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

MUDPT

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #52 on: October 22, 2018, 11:30:27 AM »
Internal middle infield options:

1. Bote’s bat obviously tailed off, but his defense was excellent and I heard somewhere this summer he can play 2B and SS pretty well too.

2. Love to see Zach Short get a chance, a FanGraphs favorite.

3. I also read Nico Horner might be in AA to start the year, with possibility to be in MLB by the end of next year.

Pakuni

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #53 on: October 22, 2018, 11:36:54 AM »
Could be wrong here, but I believe they only pay the tax on the amount they are over.  So they would pay the tax on 240, but on about 32.  I think...

My bad.

Jockey

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #54 on: October 22, 2018, 11:39:32 AM »
So why do you think it will be that high?

He made $8.5m this year.

It will be at least $10 m next year. That's the way arbitration works.

GGGG

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #55 on: October 22, 2018, 11:41:39 AM »
He made $8.5m this year.

It will be at least $10 m next year. That's the way arbitration works.


OK, I must have had his 2017 contract in my head instead.  Thanks.

Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #56 on: October 22, 2018, 11:45:40 AM »
Addie is a free agent if they let him walk, and he couldn't have lower trade value right now. I think the Cubs will go to arbitration with him and look to trade him around the All Star break. If he gets his life and game in order, maybe they stay with him but letting him walk or trade him for nothing or little seems unwise from a club perspective.

The Cubs need a leadoff man.  It's either play Almora everyday or trade him. They also need a veteran back-up catcher.

Their starting pitching is a cluster. Lester, Hendricks and Q are set but Yu, Monty, Smyly, Chits are all major question marks as starters. Lester is getting old so banking on a repeat season like 2018 is iffy. I think Theo takes on Cole then, moves Monty to the pen (he won't like it but he really didn't prove himself this season). Chatwood will have to be moved.

Like the infield, the outfield needs more stability and everyday power versus Joe's platoon game.  I think that is why the Cubs go after Harper. Whether Hey opts out (hard to believe he would but he feels he isn't being played correctly with Joe's rotations in his prime) or traded, I think he is gone. Schwarbs and Happ will be kept but the right offer could entice the Cubs to package them. But, that would mean they would lose a lot of left handed bats. Maybe Murphy is kept around as a result.

The Cubs will have to eat some salary and take on some, but they need more everyday cornerstones in their line-up even though Joe loves the depth game. On starting and bullpen, they have their fingers crossed on an aging and unhealthy staff. Theo and Jed have made a lot of roster mistakes here so I am hoping hubris is in their vocabulary.

Murphy won't be brought back.

The need for a leadoff hitter is hugely exaggerated.  I believe the Cubs had the highest OBP from the leadoff spot in the NL last year. 

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #57 on: October 22, 2018, 12:06:15 PM »
Murphy won't be brought back.

The need for a leadoff hitter is hugely exaggerated.  I believe the Cubs had the highest OBP from the leadoff spot in the NL last year.

Murphy would need to agree to a step down at his age and the Russell situation.  But it's not out of the question but it would be a late sign like Fowler if no one else bites.

I disagree on the lead-off.  They had to put Rizzo in there for a good chunk of the summer which with KB out caused a very unbalanced lineup.  It was great for lead-off  OBP but not team OBS+.  Look at the Brewers top of the order lineup for balance. 

I like Almora a lot there but as a high first rounder, he has to be an everyday player or it's time to move on when he has trade value.

TallTitan34

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #58 on: October 22, 2018, 12:55:21 PM »
Also keep in mind the current CBA expires in 2021 at which time it's possible a whole new system is put into place.
Marquette Database Spreadsheet: https://tinyurl.com/mualmanac-02-25-2019

Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #59 on: October 22, 2018, 01:16:52 PM »
Murphy would need to agree to a step down at his age and the Russell situation.  But it's not out of the question but it would be a late sign like Fowler if no one else bites.

I disagree on the lead-off.  They had to put Rizzo in there for a good chunk of the summer which with KB out caused a very unbalanced lineup.  It was great for lead-off  OBP but not team OBS+.  Look at the Brewers top of the order lineup for balance. 

I like Almora a lot there but as a high first rounder, he has to be an everyday player or it's time to move on when he has trade value.

I'm fine with Almora batting leadoff vs. LHP but he's abysmal vs. RHP.  His .OBP against lefties is .340, which is solid but certainly not great.  Against righties it's a terrible .315.  He also had a .267 OBP and .547 OPS post All Star break.  He was really, really bad in the 2nd half and if he doesn't become more selective he's not going to improve. 

Honestly, I'm not sure how much trade value he actually has.  Right now he's a good defensively OF but more of a platoon guy offensively. 

Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #60 on: October 22, 2018, 01:29:01 PM »
Cubs narrowly avoided the luxury tax last season and will have a tough time getting under it next year even without signing Harper or Machado.
A $240 million payroll like the one you're talking about would mean they're paying an additional 20 percent (so $48 million) and then 30 percent the year after that ($72 million). Are the Ricketts really willing to go there?

I think the Cubs purposefully stayed under the tax last season with the knowledge they we're likely to go over it this season and next season. 

I don't think money will be an issue, especially with the new tv deal coming.  Their planning will revolve around avoiding penalties where they lose draft picks, etc.  I'm not sure of the details of when that would kick in. 

Lester's contract is up after 2020.  Quintana becomes a free agent after 2020, assuming the Cubs pick up his options the next two years.  Chatwood's contract is up after 2020.

Assuming there are no extensions, Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Hendricks become free agents after 2021. 

There will be a lot of big name, expensive players hitting free agency over those two years.  Unfortunately, Darvish and Heyward will still account for about $40 million total in 22 and 23 (although I still believe Darvish can be productive in the coming seasons). 

The Cubs are going to have to develop some cheap starting pitching, something they haven't been able to do in Epstein's 7 years. 

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #61 on: October 22, 2018, 07:21:49 PM »
So why do you think it will be that high?

Not me.  MLBtraderumors has a guy that does it every year.  Not sure how they arrive at their numbers but they are usually pretty close.
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WarriorDad

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #62 on: October 23, 2018, 09:24:57 AM »
Bottom line: You will be perfectly happy to see "us" sign a player who maliciously tries to injure opponents.

Bottom line, he is a very good player that I don't care for. If we do sign him, my hope is we can get to his head and change some of things he does. I believe in reformation and a few chances in life, not totally throwing people on the trash pile.  I didn't realize you were such a hardliner.
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wadesworld

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #63 on: October 23, 2018, 09:47:38 AM »
Anybody else literally LOL every time Chicos talks about the Cubs?  "Us" and "we."

You convinced us!  Definitely NOT chicos.  Couldn't be.  His "us" is the Angels.

MU82

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #64 on: October 23, 2018, 10:14:06 AM »
Bottom line, he is a very good player that I don't care for. If we do sign him, my hope is we can get to his head and change some of things he does. I believe in reformation and a few chances in life, not totally throwing people on the trash pile.  I didn't realize you were such a hardliner.

Not a hardliner at all, cubbiechicos. If it was once, even twice, I'd be like, "Maybe he's misunderstood." He's a dirty SOB who deliberately tries to injure opponents. It's a multi-year pattern.

But I understand what it means to be a fan. GS Warriors fans love Draymond even though his dirty play cost the Warriors a championship (obviously, he helped them win three others). Bulls fans, by and large, loved Rodman. Duke fans loved Grayson Allen and before him Christian Laettner. And just about all Cubbie fans I know justified the addition of Chapman. I get it.

It will be interesting to see what happens in Cubbieland if "you" sign him and he doesn't run out grounders because "that's not my thing." Especially if he is slumping and/or the team is struggling.
We must remember that intelligence is not enough. Intelligence plus character – that is the goal of true education.

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GB Warrior

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #65 on: October 23, 2018, 07:04:11 PM »
Not me.  MLBtraderumors has a guy that does it every year.  Not sure how they arrive at their numbers but they are usually pretty close.

Way I see it, we have a chance to keep him or Moose (Maybe a longer term deal but lower AAV than the $15M ). If the latter, Shaw is your 3B and they'll find some way to platoon with him, even if it's Perez. If the latter, Shaw is your 2B until Dubon or Hiura are ready (bets on the former).

I don't know the signing of Moose or Schoop does anything for me, but if I had to have one, give me hope that Schoop can at least hit .25 instead of flirting with the Mendoza line. I have a hard time believing we're going to let a 26 yo former all star walk, and I don't think it's necessarily just throwing good money after bad. His abilities didn't just dry up - give him an offseason to see if he recovers a bit.

I'm just hoping Miley is affordable on a 2-3 year deal. Would be nice to be able to push someone like Peralta back into the pen

Nobody says "It's only a game" when their team is winning.

Pakuni

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #66 on: October 23, 2018, 10:12:54 PM »
Not a hardliner at all, cubbiechicos. If it was once, even twice, I'd be like, "Maybe he's misunderstood." He's a dirty SOB who deliberately tries to injure opponents. It's a multi-year pattern.


Cubs fans simply won't tolerate a player on their team who's been guilty of questionable baserunning.




WarriorDad

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chapman

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #68 on: October 24, 2018, 08:17:04 AM »
Couple of Brewers tidbits yesterday:

Quintin Torres-Costa underwent TJ surgery and will miss all of 2019.  Very unfortunate loss.  24 year old LHP reliever who had a tremendous season between AA/AAA.  Was a lock to be added to the 40 man due to Rule 5 and was certainly going to see time in Milwaukee next year.


Mauricio Dubon expected to be ready for spring training.  Was hitting .343 in AAA until he tore his ACL.  Was strongly implied that he was days from a call-up as the corresponding move the first time Arcia was optioned.  Could have been a 2B option for this year without the setback.

JWags85

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #69 on: October 24, 2018, 08:47:30 AM »
Cubs fans simply won't tolerate a player on their team who's been guilty of questionable baserunning.

Come on.  Nobody in baseball is gonna call Rizzo dirty and he's near universally liked and respected.  Lets not bring him into the convo with Machado.  Thats unnecessary.

Long list, Chase Utley made it over many years, so did AJ Pierzynski, Milton Bradley.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/867841-seven-dirtiest-players-in-mlb#slide2

https://www.thesportster.com/baseball/top-15-dirtiest-players-in-the-mlb-today/

That second list is iffy at best.  It has Harper on there and the reasons are him celebrating and yelling at umps  :o

Pakuni

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #70 on: October 24, 2018, 09:09:16 AM »
Come on.  Nobody in baseball is gonna call Rizzo dirty and he's near universally liked and respected. 

Austin Hedges and Elias Diaz might beg to differ.
Bottom line: When your guy takes out a fielder with a questionable baserunning move, it's a good, hard baseball play.
When the other guy does it, it's dirty.
This goes for all fans, not just Cubs fans. But maybe Cubs fans seem a little more reluctant to admit it.

WarriorDad

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #71 on: October 24, 2018, 09:13:41 AM »
Anybody else literally LOL every time Chicos talks about the Cubs?  "Us" and "we."

You convinced us!  Definitely NOT chicos.  Couldn't be.  His "us" is the Angels.

Now I understand the Sciocia reference from the other day.  No, the Angels are not my team.  Based on the reactions others are having to you in various conversations, I'm trying to understand why anyone truly cares what you think.  Two days ago was the anniversary of the Cubs clinching the pennant.  I can die a happy man for seeing that and will never forget it.  Winning the entire thing a week and a half later, though it took years off my life, was pure joy.  You don't get to take that away from me sir. Have a nice day.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/k2J9Vnw4M-E" target="_blank" class="new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/k2J9Vnw4M-E</a>
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jsglow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #72 on: October 24, 2018, 09:15:45 AM »
Couple of Brewers tidbits yesterday:

Quintin Torres-Costa underwent TJ surgery and will miss all of 2019.  Very unfortunate loss.  24 year old LHP reliever who had a tremendous season between AA/AAA.  Was a lock to be added to the 40 man due to Rule 5 and was certainly going to see time in Milwaukee next year.


Mauricio Dubon expected to be ready for spring training.  Was hitting .343 in AAA until he tore his ACL.  Was strongly implied that he was days from a call-up as the corresponding move the first time Arcia was optioned.  Could have been a 2B option for this year without the setback.

I saw that.  I'm not an expert but it would seem to delay his being added to the 40 man.  I'm not sure but I can't believe someone can claim him and then immediately IR him.  I know you can IR a guy during the season when he gets hurt after having made the 25 and played.  If anyone has a rules clarification I'd appreciate.

jsglow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #73 on: October 24, 2018, 09:24:30 AM »
Okay, I just answered my own question.  The player must be ACTIVE on the 25 man for at least 90 days (read that as 1/2 the season), not the 10 or 60 day DL.  If you're out for the year, that won't happen.  So I highly doubt the Crew starts his clock.

wadesworld

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #74 on: October 24, 2018, 09:47:29 AM »
Now I understand the Sciocia reference from the other day.  No, the Angels are not my team.  Based on the reactions others are having to you in various conversations, I'm trying to understand why anyone truly cares what you think.  Two days ago was the anniversary of the Cubs clinching the pennant.  I can die a happy man for seeing that and will never forget it.  Winning the entire thing a week and a half later, though it took years off my life, was pure joy.  You don't get to take that away from me sir. Have a nice day.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/k2J9Vnw4M-E" target="_blank" class="new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/k2J9Vnw4M-E</a>

"I don't know why anyone cares what you think!"  Yet here you are responding to me.  Which is it?