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Author Topic: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season  (Read 22951 times)

WarriorDad

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #25 on: October 21, 2018, 07:15:34 PM »
The offseason will be extremely interesting for the Cubs.

I assume they pick up Hamels' option and go into 2019 with a rotation of Hamels, Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, and Darvish with Smyly, Montgomery, and maybe Chatwood as depth.

If we don't pick up Hamels we deserve our fate. 



Zobrist will be back in a utility role in the last year of his contract and I can't see Heyward opting out. Can the Cubs eat enough of Heyward's deal for another team to trade for him?  Doubtful but I assume they'll try.


Money not an issue with new television deal. 


I assume Russell will be let go. I'd also be surprised if all of Schwarber, Happ, and Almora will be back.

Yes. Agree, but think 2 of 3 will.


The Cubs will be in on Harper and Machado. It won't surprise me if they get one or neither. Aside from the core 4 of Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Contreras there will definitely be some changes.

Cannot see Harper here.  Machado is dirty and would be difficult to cheer for as I do not care for his antics.

TallTitan34

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #26 on: October 21, 2018, 09:11:46 PM »
The offseason will be extremely interesting for the Cubs.

I assume they pick up Hamels' option and go into 2019 with a rotation of Hamels, Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, and Darvish with Smyly, Montgomery, and maybe Chatwood as depth.

In terms of the pen, you can't count on Morrow to be healthy so they'll need to add someone else that can potentially close. They'll also need to add a very good lefty. Morrow, Strop, Cishek and Edwards should be back so there's a solid base there for a good pen but some work needs to be done.

What happens on offense will be the most fascinating. The key is getting Bryant health and back to his usual love of production. Rizzo, Baez and Contreras will be back. Getting Contreras back on track will be key.

Zobrist will be back in a utility role in the last year of his contract and I can't see Heyward opting out. Can the Cubs eat enough of Heyward's deal for another team to trade for him?  Doubtful but I assume they'll try.

I assume Russell will be let go. I'd also be surprised if all of Schwarber, Happ, and Almora will be back.

The Cubs will be in on Harper and Machado. It won't surprise me if they get one or neither. Aside from the core 4 of Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Contreras there will definitely be some changes.

Agree with all of this.

If the Cubs were to end up with Machado, I think Bryant becomes the everyday left fielder with Baez at third.
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buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #27 on: October 21, 2018, 09:18:04 PM »
Aren't we stuck with Schoop next year?  I thought he had one more year on his deal.  Is there a solid trade market for him?

I wouldn't be surprised to see him non-tendered.  He is projected to make somewhere around 10 mil in arbitration.
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Sultan of South Wayne

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #28 on: October 21, 2018, 09:29:51 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised to see him non-tendered.  He is projected to make somewhere around 10 mil in arbitration.

So why do you think it will be that high?
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buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #29 on: October 21, 2018, 09:33:29 PM »

Money not an issue with new television deal. 



If you believe that, well, you probably don't have a good understanding of humanity.

Also it may cost more than money.  Let's say the Cubs eat 56 Million on Heyward.  That leaves 50.  That is still a significant risk.  The Cubs may have to throw in a fairly decent prospect to make it more alluring.
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MU82

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #30 on: October 21, 2018, 10:18:41 PM »
Machado is dirty and would be difficult to cheer for as I do not care for his antics.

Interesting. In a different thread (that had nothing to do with baseball), you said:

Retool a few areas, slot Machado at short, avoid the injury bug and we are right there.

You didn't seem the least bit distressed about the possibility of slotting the dirty douche at short so "we" could be "right there."
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WarriorDad

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #31 on: October 21, 2018, 10:23:07 PM »
If you believe that, well, you probably don't have a good understanding of humanity.

Also it may cost more than money.  Let's say the Cubs eat 56 Million on Heyward.  That leaves 50.  That is still a significant risk.  The Cubs may have to throw in a fairly decent prospect to make it more alluring.

In the context of whether they can afford it or not, they will have more wiggle room due to the new TV situation.  I'm not advocating for it, only explaining there is a large pot of gold coming that they didn't have before. If Theo and management decide they want to play in the luxury tax space they can, though to my knowledge they have not done so in the past.   The new deal starts after next season, but they will be able to back load some contracts to accommodate.  https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/08/28/new-tv-deal-could-earn-cubs-additional-100-million-in-annual-revenue/

WarriorDad

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #32 on: October 21, 2018, 10:27:10 PM »
Interesting. In a different thread (that had nothing to do with baseball), you said:

Retool a few areas, slot Machado at short, avoid the injury bug and we are right there.

You didn't seem the least bit distressed about the possibility of slotting the dirty douche at short so "we" could be "right there."

I also said this (below) before I said what you quoted me on.  They are called continuous comments, in multiple responses.  Feel free to put them together to understand a person's complete thought process, rather than isolating them as if they are sound bytes.  Thank you.

We are not signing Harper, he will go to the Yankees.  Get rid of Russell.  Machado would do nicely, but it is easy to hate him.  With the Cubs new TV deal coming, a lot of money to spend on the horizon.  Resign Hamels.  Fix Chatwood, get him consistent.  Pray Darvish does something.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=56700.msg1047636#msg1047636


MUDPT

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #33 on: October 22, 2018, 08:17:35 AM »
Agree with all of this.

If the Cubs were to end up with Machado, I think Bryant becomes the everyday left fielder with Baez at third.

I’d keep Javy at short and play Machado at 3B. If it wasn’t for the Almora connection, I don’t see the Cubs FO going for Machado. The comments after he didn’t run out the grounder were interesting, “that’s just me” or something to that effect. Contrast that to the reaction within the team after Willson didn’t run out the 400 foot fly ball, big difference.

TallTitan34

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #34 on: October 22, 2018, 09:02:59 AM »
I’d keep Javy at short and play Machado at 3B. If it wasn’t for the Almora connection, I don’t see the Cubs FO going for Machado. The comments after he didn’t run out the grounder were interesting, “that’s just me” or something to that effect. Contrast that to the reaction within the team after Willson didn’t run out the 400 foot fly ball, big difference.

Manny has said he wants to play short, so I assume wherever he lands, that's where he will play.  I would much rather have Javy at short as you say but I don't know if Manny will play third.

I think the connection also comes from the Cubs needing an infielder with Addy likely on the way out.

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buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #35 on: October 22, 2018, 09:14:46 AM »
Manny has said he wants to play short, so I assume wherever he lands, that's where he will play.  I would much rather have Javy at short as you say but I don't know if Manny will play third.

I think the connection also comes from the Cubs needing an infielder with Addy likely on the way out.

If the team that will pay him the most wants him at 3rd, he will play 3rd.  I think playing SS this year was a move to show teams that he can play either to increase his market and value.

Also with Bryant, Baez, Zobrist, Happ and Bote, it is interesting to see you say the Cubs need an infielder.
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MU82

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #36 on: October 22, 2018, 09:20:41 AM »
I also said this (below) before I said what you quoted me on.  They are called continuous comments, in multiple responses.  Feel free to put them together to understand a person's complete thought process, rather than isolating them as if they are sound bytes.  Thank you.

We are not signing Harper, he will go to the Yankees.  Get rid of Russell.  Machado would do nicely, but it is easy to hate him.  With the Cubs new TV deal coming, a lot of money to spend on the horizon.  Resign Hamels.  Fix Chatwood, get him consistent.  Pray Darvish does something.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=56700.msg1047636#msg1047636

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Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #37 on: October 22, 2018, 09:41:45 AM »
If the team that will pay him the most wants him at 3rd, he will play 3rd.  I think playing SS this year was a move to show teams that he can play either to increase his market and value.

Also with Bryant, Baez, Zobrist, Happ and Bote, it is interesting to see you say the Cubs need an infielder.

Zobrist turns 38 next season, will be in the last year of his contract, and is not a full-time player any longer. 

Bote struggled mightily after the league adjusted to him and is probably best served in a utility role. 

Happ primarily played OF.  He started 12 games at 3rd, primarily due to Bryant's injury.  He started two games at 1B and zero at 2nd. 

Assuming Bryant at 3rd, Baez at SS, and Russell gone the team definitely needs another IF. 

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #38 on: October 22, 2018, 09:45:53 AM »
Addie is a free agent if they let him walk, and he couldn't have lower trade value right now. I think the Cubs will go to arbitration with him and look to trade him around the All Star break. If he gets his life and game in order, maybe they stay with him but letting him walk or trade him for nothing or little seems unwise from a club perspective.

The Cubs need a leadoff man.  It's either play Almora everyday or trade him. They also need a veteran back-up catcher.

Their starting pitching is a cluster. Lester, Hendricks and Q are set but Yu, Monty, Smyly, Chits are all major question marks as starters. Lester is getting old so banking on a repeat season like 2018 is iffy. I think Theo takes on Cole then, moves Monty to the pen (he won't like it but he really didn't prove himself this season). Chatwood will have to be moved.

Like the infield, the outfield needs more stability and everyday power versus Joe's platoon game.  I think that is why the Cubs go after Harper. Whether Hey opts out (hard to believe he would but he feels he isn't being played correctly with Joe's rotations in his prime) or traded, I think he is gone. Schwarbs and Happ will be kept but the right offer could entice the Cubs to package them. But, that would mean they would lose a lot of left handed bats. Maybe Murphy is kept around as a result.

The Cubs will have to eat some salary and take on some, but they need more everyday cornerstones in their line-up even though Joe loves the depth game. On starting and bullpen, they have their fingers crossed on an aging and unhealthy staff. Theo and Jed have made a lot of roster mistakes here so I am hoping hubris is in their vocabulary.

JWags85

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #39 on: October 22, 2018, 09:48:47 AM »
Zobrist turns 38 next season, will be in the last year of his contract, and is not a full-time player any longer. 

Bote struggled mightily after the league adjusted to him and is probably best served in a utility role. 

Happ primarily played OF.  He started 12 games at 3rd, primarily due to Bryant's injury.  He started two games at 1B and zero at 2nd. 

Assuming Bryant at 3rd, Baez at SS, and Russell gone the team definitely needs another IF. 

Took the words out of my mouth.  Zobrist isn't part of a mid or long term plan.  Bote has shown flashes but its too early to see what he truly has.  I think Happ becomes the "new Zobrist" and you slot him in the OF or 2B/1B if needed, but I don't think you decide he's your 2B going forward.

Makes a ton of sense for the Cubs to find a good everyday SS or 2B and move Javy to the other.  While he can certainly play it, Titan's suggestion of moving to Javy to 3B really minimizes his defensive prowess IMO.

MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #40 on: October 22, 2018, 09:56:56 AM »
Moose couldn’t find a long term deal after last season. He might not be able to this offseason either. $15M wouldn’t be a bad thing for him for next year, and for the Brewers they can eat big money for a single year.

I think Schoop will be just fine. He was awful no doubt, but he’s a very good player. Give him an offseason and have him coming into the organization at the start of the year and he’ll produce.

I’d be cool with having Moose the everyday 3B and Shaw playing some days at 1B and some days at 2B.

But my guess would be Moose does sign elsewhere and Shaw moves back to 3B.

Brewers will need to add some bench players. Santana, Keon, Hernan. Will be interesting to see who the rookies are next year. And if Stearns can find any castoffs this year that can break into the everyday lineup.

I agree with most of this, except I'm bearish on Schoop. Very little chance he's not the opening day starting 2B, though. If nothing else, I think the sunk cost fallacy keeps the Crew invested in him until at least next year's trade deadline. At most, Stearns adds a veteran bench guy to steal some ABs.

I would like to see one or both of Matt Adams and/or Asdrubal Cabrera. Adams could platoon at 1B with Aguilar, maybe play for Braun a little; Asdrubal switch hits but is better from the right side, meaning he could play 3B for Shaw vs left handers or play for Schoop at 2B hitting from the left side.

With all the young arms coming around and Nelson back, I don't think the Brewers spend big on pitching, but I would be a fan of overpaying if necessary for a middling 150+ IP guy to keep all the pen and young arms fresh - esp with all the extra playoff innings. Maybe something of the Derek Holland, James Shields, Ervin Santana vintage.

TallTitan34

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #41 on: October 22, 2018, 10:03:18 AM »
The Cubs need a leadoff man.  It's either play Almora everyday or trade him. They also need a veteran back-up catcher.

Almora does best when Joe plays him in certain matchups.  As a everyday player he starts to decline.
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #42 on: October 22, 2018, 10:07:48 AM »
Almora does best when Joe plays him in certain matchups.  As a everyday player he starts to decline.

If he isn't an everyday player, then time to move him.  The Cubs have missed that Fowler guy (but not Fowler). 

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #43 on: October 22, 2018, 10:10:59 AM »
Zobrist turns 38 next season, will be in the last year of his contract, and is not a full-time player any longer. 

Bote struggled mightily after the league adjusted to him and is probably best served in a utility role. 

Happ primarily played OF.  He started 12 games at 3rd, primarily due to Bryant's injury.  He started two games at 1B and zero at 2nd. 

Assuming Bryant at 3rd, Baez at SS, and Russell gone the team definitely needs another IF.

Didn't Happ play IF all through the minors?  I thought he was drafted as a 2B and played OF at the big league level because of need and the Cubs full infield more than anything.
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Pakuni

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #44 on: October 22, 2018, 10:11:32 AM »
White Sox sign Eloy's little brother, Enoy.
Which makes me wonder if there's a middle brother named Emoy.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/white-sox/white-sox-sign-enoy-jimenez-17-year-old-brother-eloy-jimenez

Oh, and don't sleep on the Phils for Bryce Harper. Big market team that really needs to make a splash and has plenty of money to spend.


TallTitan34

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #45 on: October 22, 2018, 10:14:10 AM »
Makes a ton of sense for the Cubs to find a good everyday SS or 2B and move Javy to the other.  While he can certainly play it, Titan's suggestion of moving to Javy to 3B really minimizes his defensive prowess IMO.

I completely agree.  Javy is ideal at short.    But if Manny is there I'd prefer Javy at third over second because of his arm.
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MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #46 on: October 22, 2018, 10:32:02 AM »
We are not signing Harper, he will go to the Yankees.  Get rid of Russell.  Machado would do nicely, but it is easy to hate him.  With the Cubs new TV deal coming, a lot of money to spend on the horizon.  Resign Hamels.  Fix Chatwood, get him consistent.  Pray Darvish does something.

Yankees are not signing Harper.  They already have Judge & Stanton.  And he'll cost more than they want to spend.  They are still trying to keep payroll down.

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #47 on: October 22, 2018, 10:40:20 AM »
Cubs currently have over 131 million committed for next season.  That is not including arbitration numbers for Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, Montgomery and Schwarber (MLBTR projects the Cubs arbitration players to make 40.1 Million, thought that includes 4.3 for Russell.)  It also does not include any pre-arb guys like Almora and Contreras who will likely get raises.  It also only includes the buy out for Quintana, so another 9.5 for him puts the Cubs over 140.  It doesn't include anything for Hamels, so 6 for the buyout (did Texas cover that?) or 20 for the option.  Obviously that puts them over 160 if they take the option.  That also factors in the 500K buyout for Strop, who seems like a no brainer at 6.25 so add in another 5.7.  Factor in the arb guys, minus Russell and they are already over 200 in salary for next season where they stand right now. 

Trading guys like Happ or Schwarber would only move about 5 million.  I have a hard time seeing anyone taking on Heyward without the Cubs taking on an insane amount of that deal.  Guys like Darvish and Chatwood seem unmovable entirely.

Signing Machado or Harper would certainly put them in the area of 240 without some significant moves (the projected luxury tax is 20% of every dollar over 206, so about 7mil).  That would be the highest  It seems like an onerous task, not impossible, but other teams have a much easier path.  Especially if Machado and Harper sign early (the best players usually do) the Cubs have a lot to get done before then. 

Or maybe the money really is no issue and the Cubs will blow past 240 without hesitation.  Certainly possible.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2018, 10:48:04 AM by buckchuckler »
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Pakuni

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #48 on: October 22, 2018, 10:48:12 AM »
Cubs currently have over 131 million committed for next season.  That is not including arbitration numbers for Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, Montgomery and Schwarber (MLBTR projects the Cubs arbitration players to make 40.1 Million, thought that includes 4.3 for Russell.)  It also does not include any pre-arb guys like Almora and Contreras who will likely get raises.  It also only includes the buy out for Quintana, so another 9.5 for him puts the Cubs over 140.  It doesn't include anything for Hamels, so 6 for the buyout (did Texas cover that?) or 20 for the option.  Obviously that puts them over 160 if they take the option.  That also factors in the 500K buyout for Strop, who seems like a no brainer at 6.25 so add in another 5.7.  Factor in the arb guys, minus Russell and they are already over 200 in salary for next season where they stand right now. 

Trading guys like Happ or Schwarber would only move about 5 million.  I have a hard time seeing anyone taking on Heyward without the Cubs taking on an insane amount of that deal.  Guys like Darvish and Chatwood seem unmovable entirely.

Maybe money is no issue, but signing Machado or Harper would certainly put them in the area of 240 without some significant moves.  It seems like an onerous task, not impossible, but other teams have a much easier path.  Especially if Machado and Harper sign early (the best players usually do) the Cubs have a lot to get done before then.

Cubs narrowly avoided the luxury tax last season and will have a tough time getting under it next year even without signing Harper or Machado.
A $240 million payroll like the one you're talking about would mean they're paying an additional 20 percent (so $48 million) and then 30 percent the year after that ($72 million). Are the Ricketts really willing to go there?

JWags85

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #49 on: October 22, 2018, 10:57:14 AM »
Oh, and don't sleep on the Phils for Bryce Harper. Big market team that really needs to make a splash and has plenty of money to spend.

Yep, I think they will be among the favs in both the Harper and Machado sweepstakes.