MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season

[chapman]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/10/25/brewers-hitting-coach-darnell-coles-resigns-after-erratic-offensive-year/1758051002/

Coles out as Brewers hitting coach.  A welcome change.  After dishing out the cash and trading half the farm, the offense had to be better than it was. 

A little surprised at Tunnel being dismissed given the strength of the bullpen, though not really a role that is immune to changes (Bill Castro's longevity being the exception).  Don't think it could have happened without Derek Johnson's ok, and he's done enough that I trust his judgment.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

They also got rid of their head athletic trainer, who probably screwed up the Suter forearm injury.

Being a hitting coach is tough.  Yelich does his double-double-homer-walk-double-walk thing to end the regular season, and you're a genius.  Don't hit the next week?  You're fired.

[jsglow]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/10/25/brewers-hitting-coach-darnell-coles-resigns-after-erratic-offensive-year/1758051002/

Coles out as Brewers hitting coach.  A welcome change.  After dishing out the cash and trading half the farm, the offense had to be better than it was. 

A little surprised at Tunnel being dismissed given the strength of the bullpen, though not really a role that is immune to changes (Bill Castro's longevity being the exception).  Don't think it could have happened without Derek Johnson's ok, and he's done enough that I trust his judgment.

According to the article, Coles wasn't pushed.

[wadesworld]

Bottom line, he is a very good player that I don't care for. If we do sign him, my hope is we can get to his head and change some of things he does. I believe in reformation and a few chances in life, not totally throwing people on the trash pile.  I didn't realize you were such a hardliner.

Fans don't have that power, it will come from his teammates and coaches, or more importantly from within.

Lol.

[4everwarriors]

According to the article, Coles wasn't pushed.

Case of semantics--
"Wee r ant diggin' yo coachin'."
"Fook u and take dis job and shove it up yo tuchis. Eye quit."

[buckchuckler]

Both Moose and Soria decline their options, and become free agents.

[WarriorDad]

Lol.

Department of redundancy? You responded the same way in a different message group, now copied my response and your response to it in this one?  Trying to drive clicks or something?

[ChuckyChip]

Don't think it could have happened without Derek Johnson's ok, and he's done enough that I trust his judgment.

Derek Johnson leaving also, apparently heading to Cincinnati.

[CreightonWarrior]

Derek Johnson leaving also, apparently heading to Cincinnati.

This feels like a big loss.

[jsglow]

This feels like a big loss.

Totally agree.  And they tried hard to keep him.

[GB Warrior]

Something isn't sitting right with these departures.

[Jockey]

Something isn't sitting right with these departures.

Could be any of several reasons that they left. I don't see anything unusual.

They tried to keep Johnson, but I think they were fine with Coles leaving.

[buckchuckler]

Cubs pick up the option on Hamels, trade Smyly to the Rangers.

Apparently, according to Ken Rosenthal, the Smyly trade had to happen to "clear salary" before picking up the Hamels money.

[Jockey]

Cubs pick up the option on Hamels, trade Smyly to the Rangers.

Apparently, according to Ken Rosenthal, the Smyly trade had to happen to "clear salary" before picking up the Hamels money.

This looked like an easy decision. Only cost the rangers $1m for a guy who is actually a pretty good pitcher when he is healthy. (Of course that is a big IF).

[MUBurrow]

This looked like an easy decision. Only cost the rangers $1m for a guy who is actually a pretty good pitcher when he is healthy. (Of course that is a big IF).

I also think I saw somewhere that the Rangers were on the hook for Hamels' $6M buyout if the Cubs didn't pick up his option (presumably a term of that trade) so they had incentive to help the Cubs clear salary.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Cubs pick up the option on Hamels, trade Smyly to the Rangers.

Apparently, according to Ken Rosenthal, the Smyly trade had to happen to "clear salary" before picking up the Hamels money.

I'll be extremely surprised if Hamels is worth the $20M.  I think his one-third of season or so of resurgence is mostly an illusion that likely won't be repeated.  But hey, the Cubs seem to have an unlimited budget to throw away, so go for it.  Maybe extend Darvish, too.

[buckchuckler]

I'll be extremely surprised if Hamels is worth the $20M.  I think his one-third of season or so of resurgence is mostly an illusion that likely won't be repeated.  But hey, the Cubs seem to have an unlimited budget to throw away, so go for it.  Maybe extend Darvish, too.

I'm not so sure.  If they needed to clear payroll to keep Hamels, well, that at least seems to indicate they are near the top of their budget.  Who knows though, maybe they just had a threshold for this point in the offseason and they are still planning on pursuing someone like Harper. 

[Jockey]

I also think I saw somewhere that the Rangers were on the hook for Hamels' $6M buyout if the Cubs didn't pick up his option (presumably a term of that trade) so they had incentive to help the Cubs clear salary.

Yup. That's why I said they were only on the hook for a mil for Smyly. His contract is $7m and the buyout for Hamels would have been $6m.

This move for the Cubs makes me really doubt whether they will be players for Harper or Machado.

(Hadn't read your comment yet - as that is what you were saying about payroll.)

[Vander Blue Man Group]

The Cubs also have a full rotation with Montgomery as the 6th starter. They very well may not get Harper or Machado but I think a lot of people are overanalyzing the trade of Smyly in terms of where they'd be willing to go in terms of the luxury tax.

[buckchuckler]

The Cubs also have a full rotation with Montgomery as the 6th starter. They very well may not get Harper or Machado but I think a lot of people are overanalyzing the trade of Smyly in terms of where they'd be willing to go in terms of the luxury tax.

Chatwood as well.  The trade of Smyly is pretty "meh" to me in every way, it was more that Rosenthal, routinely one of the most connected, well informed guys, made is seem like where the payroll is could be a roadblock.  The fact that KR framed the trade in that light seems to mean something. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Chatwood as well.  The trade of Smyly is pretty "meh" to me in every way, it was more that Rosenthal, routinely one of the most connected, well informed guys, made is seem like where the payroll is could be a roadblock.  The fact that KR framed the trade in that light seems to mean something.

I thought about mentioning Chatwood but obviously he can't be counted on for anything right now.

Rosenthal is very good and I could be way off. I just think the trade of Smyly is more about reallocating some salary than a signal the Cubs won't go over the tax.  Spending $7 million on what would be your 6th or 7th starter just doesn't seem to be the best use of payroll.

Harper may not happen for a variety of reasons. I just don't believe not being able to afford him is one. I don't think the financial penalties in regards to the luxury tax are an obstacle. It would be the loss of draft picks that they'd want to avoid.

And realistically they have 3 more years before there will be some really big changes so you have to take advantage of the opportunity to try to win another one while you can.

If Bryant is healthy and Contreras bounces back those are two big boosts to that offense.

[MU82]

For the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and maybe a handful of other franchises, "afford" is a meaningless word.

They can choose not to afford somebody, they can choose not to run up their payroll and/or not to reach the luxury-tax threshold, but to say they "can't afford" somebody ... that's silliness.

It was like apologists who said Reinsdorf couldn't have "afforded" to keep the dynastic Bulls (or at least most of them) together. He chose not to.

I mean, I have the means to afford a Lamborghini. (As do many other Scoopers, I'm guessing.) But I choose not to buy one because I do not believe it would not be a wise allocation of my resources.

[nyg]

For the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and maybe a handful of other franchises, "afford" is a meaningless word.

They can choose not to afford somebody, they can choose not to run up their payroll and/or not to reach the luxury-tax threshold, but to say they "can't afford" somebody ... that's silliness.

It was like apologists who said Reinsdorf couldn't have "afforded" to keep the dynastic Bulls (or at least most of them) together. He chose not to.

I mean, I have the means to afford a Lamborghini. (As do many other Scoopers, I'm guessing.) But I choose not to buy one because I do not believe it would not be a wise allocation of my resources.

There was an interesting panel discussion on MLB Network the other day.  They were discussing the outrageous salaries of players, to include Stanton's 30 million per year.  Many GMs are now in the belief mode of not paying a player 30 million a year, yes Kershaw just got around that, and going in a different direction. Pitchers would be the priority in the money spending, since there are so many talented younger position players at big league level or minors.

The direction would be getting two players at 15 million a year or three players at 10 million a year. This off season will be the barometer of that precedent with the free agent status of Harper and Machado.  Two years ago, it was discussed that Harper would be the first 400 million man and they all stated that won't happen now.  Should be an interesting few months.

[MUBurrow]

Discuss: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html

My initial reactions:

1. Harper at $420M/14 from the Dodgers and Machado at $390/13 from the Phillies. I don't often pretend to know more than the experts, but this will not happen. Last year was the beginning of a trend, not an anomaly. I don't put either player at a greater than 50% chance to get 10+ years. (caveat - if there are 3 mutual options or opt outs over the life of a deal, you could make it 100 years if you want because the term becomes kind of meaningless).

2. I think some of these SPs were made to look better than they are at the end of 2018, due to managers going to their bullpen earlier and more often than they will over a full year (even in the new MLB).  Gio was great for the Brewers after the trade, for example, but he was also put into good situations by CC. If someone wants to give him $24/2, he should laugh to the bank.

3. Don't overpay for old pitchers that were reclamation projects. Underpay for your own new reclamation projects. I'd rather take swings at Clay Buccholz, Marco Estrada, or Chris Tillman vs paying Charlie Morton, Anibal Sanchez or Eovaldi.

4. These projections really show how qualifying offers punish players. Ryu should be worth far more than one extra year $9M vs Gio or Anibal Sanchez.

[GB Warrior]

Discuss: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html

My initial reactions:

1. Harper at $420M/14 from the Dodgers and Machado at $390/13 from the Phillies. I don't often pretend to know more than the experts, but this will not happen. Last year was the beginning of a trend, not an anomaly. I don't put either player at a greater than 50% chance to get 10+ years. (caveat - if there are 3 mutual options or opt outs over the life of a deal, you could make it 100 years if you want because the term becomes kind of meaningless).

2. I think some of these SPs were made to look better than they are at the end of 2018, due to managers going to their bullpen earlier and more often than they will over a full year (even in the new MLB).  Gio was great for the Brewers after the trade, for example, but he was also put into good situations by CC. If someone wants to give him $24/2, he should laugh to the bank.

3. Don't overpay for old pitchers that were reclamation projects. Underpay for your own new reclamation projects. I'd rather take swings at Clay Buccholz, Marco Estrada, or Chris Tillman vs paying Charlie Morton, Anibal Sanchez or Eovaldi.

4. These projections really show how qualifying offers punish players. Ryu should be worth far more than one extra year $9M vs Gio or Anibal Sanchez.

I agree on #1 with a caveat that I think there's still an outside possibly that one team blows modern thinking out of the water. I think both of them set new records in AAV, but I don't see a contract > 10 years. If one gets it, it's Machado, who has been more durable and consistent. Granted, these guys are just entering their physical prime, so this is very different than when the Angels signed Pujols, who was already over 30.

1 Win (read, one WAR) is valued at - give or take - about $10M (https://bit.ly/2sCVBs3). So by signing Harper at this value, you're banking on 42 WAR over the lifetime of that deal. Harper to date has produced an average of 3.85 WAR/year (albeit in a couple injury shortened seasons). So over the lifetime, of this deal, he'd make it up if he continued at this pace. The question is whether teams are willing to bet on that as he enters his age 37, 38, 39, 40 seasons. I don't think that's reasonable to expect at his position. The other way I suppose teams couldconvince themselves into this contract is if they think they can get SO much value out of these guys in the first decade of their deals that they will absorb and tolerate less production on the last couple.

Separately, I don't know that I agree on #2 - star relievers are making $10M/year, so if you can have a SP that you put into a position to succeed, you might get that value back considering more innings. I think teams will be more judicious in general around overpaying for starters given the horrors that were the 2017 SP market, but teams will still pay good (not great) value if they think they can better utilize a guy like Gio (for the record, no one should pay Gio $12M/year)