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Author Topic: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines  (Read 16529 times)

PorkysButthole

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Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« on: October 17, 2018, 02:15:51 PM »
Solid reporting from the MU Wire below.

https://marquettewire.org/3998227/news/record-breaking-enrollment-numbers-in-class-of-2022/

Key Takeaways:

Record freshmen enrollment for class of 2022

The first to second year retention rate is down to 87 percent for students admitted in 2017. This is a decline from 89.3% in 2016 and represents the lowest percentage in available data, which starts with 2004.

On the flip side, The four-year graduation rate for the class of 2014 was 67 percent, a Marquette record.  The six-year graduation rate for students who began in 2012 is 85 percent, another record but both positive ones!

I know the majority of fellow scoopers think I and other east coasters make a much bigger deal out of MU's high acceptance rate than we should, and I was very pleased that MU's 2019 USNR ranking didn't decline because of it, and actually went up a point, vindicating Sultan's POV on this issue.

That said, the fact that the lowest first to second year retention rate all the years they've been tracking that data coincided with a Fall 2017 acceptance of 89% isn't surprising in the least.  I didn't think a 2.3% decline was that big of a deal when I first read this until I read the next sentence which said it was the lowest figure in all the year's they've been keeping track since 2004.  That really hit home.

At the same , the four-year graduation rate for the class of 2014 was 67 percent and the six-year graduation rate for students who began in 2012 was 85 percent.....both records in a positive sense that coincided with acceptance rates of 57% for Fall 2012, and 64% for Fall 2014.

Thoughts?


tower912

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 02:17:36 PM »
Trust the process.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

jsglow

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 02:28:34 PM »
Bigger + more diverse + more 'first in family' + record 6 year graduation rates = a stable, successful university; all in an era where the midwestern pool is shrinking significantly.

I'm also told that it's either a record or near record composite ACT for the class.  I don't have firm figures yet.

Win Every Day!

jsglow

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2018, 02:32:46 PM »
I'm also going to speculate about the Frosh retention rate.  I have no hard data on this.  As MU goes more national in scope, the Frosh retention rate might expect to take a little hit.  I suspect, but am not certain, that students from far away are more likely than 'locals' to experience homesickness, winter weather shock, cultural differences, etc. at a higher rate.  How many kids head off to California only to return after the reality doesn't fit their 17 year old dream expectation?

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2018, 02:54:59 PM »
So ya saying da skool has a transfer problem?  Where's willie?

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2018, 03:14:01 PM »
In 1970, 4.7% of the US population was born in another country. Today, it is about 13%.  In 2030 it will be 15.2% which will be a higher rate than the historic high of 14.8% set in 1850.  Yes 1850, the year that Zachary Taylor died in office.

This will hit 17.2% in 2060.  MU is doing the right things for the future, including its capital investments.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2018, 03:41:31 PM »
Bigger + more diverse + more 'first in family' + record 6 year graduation rates = a stable, successful university; all in an era where the midwestern pool is shrinking significantly.

I'm also told that it's either a record or near record composite ACT for the class.  I don't have firm figures yet.

Win Every Day!

ACT - It was almost non-existent here in the Northeast.  A lot of students have chosen to take it the last few years.  My daughter is taking later this month so she has a score in time for the Dec. 1 application deadlines (including her Marquette application).  She wanted in her transcript.

ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2018, 03:50:05 PM »
ACT - It was almost non-existent here in the Northeast.  A lot of students have chosen to take it the last few years.  My daughter is taking later this month so she has a score in time for the Dec. 1 application deadlines (including her Marquette application).  She wanted in her transcript.

I feel like it goes in waves. I remember when I was younger like 5th or 6th grade teachers would only talk about the SAT.

Fast forward to high school and I think the only people who took the SAT were the ones who were applying to the Ivy's.

PorkysButthole

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2018, 03:57:28 PM »
ACT - It was almost non-existent here in the Northeast.  A lot of students have chosen to take it the last few years.  My daughter is taking later this month so she has a score in time for the Dec. 1 application deadlines (including her Marquette application).  She wanted in her transcript.

Probably because IL switched from ACT to SAT a couple of years ago so they need to make up that loss which was a big one.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-illinois-chooses-sat-met-20160211-story.html

GGGG

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2018, 04:27:07 PM »
Solid reporting from the MU Wire below.

https://marquettewire.org/3998227/news/record-breaking-enrollment-numbers-in-class-of-2022/

Key Takeaways:

Record freshmen enrollment for class of 2022

The first to second year retention rate is down to 87 percent for students admitted in 2017. This is a decline from 89.3% in 2016 and represents the lowest percentage in available data, which starts with 2004.

On the flip side, The four-year graduation rate for the class of 2014 was 67 percent, a Marquette record.  The six-year graduation rate for students who began in 2012 is 85 percent, another record but both positive ones!

I know the majority of fellow scoopers think I and other east coasters make a much bigger deal out of MU's high acceptance rate than we should, and I was very pleased that MU's 2019 USNR ranking didn't decline because of it, and actually went up a point, vindicating Sultan's POV on this issue.

That said, the fact that the lowest first to second year retention rate all the years they've been tracking that data coincided with a Fall 2017 acceptance of 89% isn't surprising in the least.  I didn't think a 2.3% decline was that big of a deal when I first read this until I read the next sentence which said it was the lowest figure in all the year's they've been keeping track since 2004.  That really hit home.

At the same , the four-year graduation rate for the class of 2014 was 67 percent and the six-year graduation rate for students who began in 2012 was 85 percent.....both records in a positive sense that coincided with acceptance rates of 57% for Fall 2012, and 64% for Fall 2014.

Thoughts?


Most often, retention doesn't mean academic issues. It usually means a lack of fit - or a lack of place. In other words, the students got to campus but never felt that they fit in.

So I don't think your assessment that it was due to acceptance rate is much of a factor.  Because I also think I recall hearing that the class was quite talented academically as well.  If it was more diverse, that could be an issue.  Many underepresented minorities retain at a lower rate even if their academics are fine.  They may simply have the same trouble with fit, or if they are first generation college students, oftentimes such students don't persist due to a lack of understanding and/or support from their family.

Another issue could be that how Marquette presented itself from an admissions perspective, wasn't as authentic as what the student experience turned out to be.  There could be some "buyer's remorse" from that perspective.

Retention is a very complicated issue with multiple factors.  So much so that there are consultants that specialize in building and maintaining a comprehensive retention program.

Also, USN&WR is dropping acceptance rate as a criteria. 

jsglow

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2018, 09:00:47 PM »
I have no reason to believe that the retention issue (if there's an issue at all) has anything at all to do with academics.  The quality of the incoming class over the past 5-10 years has been stellar.  As Sultan said, it's a fit thing.

I've told you guys before.  Half of you clowns that graduated 'back in the day' would have zero chance at getting admitted today.  In fact I'd personally make sure of that with a VETO for some of you!

WarriorDad

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2018, 10:13:44 PM »
In 1970, 4.7% of the US population was born in another country. Today, it is about 13%.  In 2030 it will be 15.2% which will be a higher rate than the historic high of 14.8% set in 1850.  Yes 1850, the year that Zachary Taylor died in office.

This will hit 17.2% in 2060.  MU is doing the right things for the future, including its capital investments.

1850 was less than 10% 1890 was high water mark at 14.8% according to the gov't. 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pdf/cspan_fb_slides.pdf

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GGGG

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2018, 08:03:12 AM »
I have no reason to believe that the retention issue (if there's an issue at all) has anything at all to do with academics.  The quality of the incoming class over the past 5-10 years has been stellar.  As Sultan said, it's a fit thing.

I've told you guys before.  Half of you clowns that graduated 'back in the day' would have zero chance at getting admitted today.  In fact I'd personally make sure of that with a VETO for some of you!


Well it is an issue.  And its a financial one at that.  They probably assumed something higher based on historical averages and budgeted to that number.  Its nearly impossible to make up for that with new freshmen since by that point they have already made their choices.

The real question is whether or not its a one-time blip or something more fundamental.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 08:25:37 AM by Sultan of South Wayne »

jsglow

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2018, 08:20:40 AM »
True dat Sultan.  It is about 40 extra kids so I'm sure they're paying attention to see if any trends emerge.

Babybluejeans

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2018, 08:50:50 AM »
Half of you clowns that graduated 'back in the day' would have zero chance at getting admitted today.

With an 89% (!) acceptance rate, this is probably untrue.

WarriorDad

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2018, 08:58:22 AM »
I have no reason to believe that the retention issue (if there's an issue at all) has anything at all to do with academics.  The quality of the incoming class over the past 5-10 years has been stellar.  As Sultan said, it's a fit thing.

I've told you guys before.  Half of you clowns that graduated 'back in the day' would have zero chance at getting admitted today.  In fact I'd personally make sure of that with a VETO for some of you!

Some for sure would not be admitted today, but with that high of an acceptance rate the numbers don't exactly support the comment.
“No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.”
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tower912

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2018, 08:59:35 AM »
I have no reason to believe that the retention issue (if there's an issue at all) has anything at all to do with academics.  The quality of the incoming class over the past 5-10 years has been stellar.  As Sultan said, it's a fit thing.

I've told you guys before.  Half of you clowns that graduated 'back in the day' would have zero chance at getting admitted today.  In fact I'd personally make sure of that with a VETO for some of you!
I like my chances.   Michigan, and Notre Dame accepted me, too.   I chose Marquette. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

WarriorDad

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2018, 09:05:04 AM »
I like my chances.   Michigan, and Notre Dame accepted me, too.   I chose Marquette.

Similar for me. 
“No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.”
— Plato

GGGG

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2018, 10:22:16 AM »
With an 89% (!) acceptance rate, this is probably untrue.


Again, they are targeting a smaller population.  That is why the acceptance rate is higher.  The statistic is meaningless.

warriorchick

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2018, 10:35:44 AM »
I would like to see what the retention rate is for each of the years included in this statistic.

"The lowest since 2004" isn't all that meaningful as a stand-alone stat if it is within a couple of tenths of several other years. For Marquette, each tenth represents about 2 students.

As a comparison, I found several sources that say the average retention rate for a private university is about 80%.  Average for a public institution is 72%.
Have some patience, FFS.

Billy Hoyle

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2018, 10:56:43 AM »
Solid reporting from the MU Wire below.

https://marquettewire.org/3998227/news/record-breaking-enrollment-numbers-in-class-of-2022/

Key Takeaways:

Record freshmen enrollment for class of 2022

The first to second year retention rate is down to 87 percent for students admitted in 2017. This is a decline from 89.3% in 2016 and represents the lowest percentage in available data, which starts with 2004.

On the flip side, The four-year graduation rate for the class of 2014 was 67 percent, a Marquette record.  The six-year graduation rate for students who began in 2012 is 85 percent, another record but both positive ones!

I know the majority of fellow scoopers think I and other east coasters make a much bigger deal out of MU's high acceptance rate than we should, and I was very pleased that MU's 2019 USNR ranking didn't decline because of it, and actually went up a point, vindicating Sultan's POV on this issue.

That said, the fact that the lowest first to second year retention rate all the years they've been tracking that data coincided with a Fall 2017 acceptance of 89% isn't surprising in the least.  I didn't think a 2.3% decline was that big of a deal when I first read this until I read the next sentence which said it was the lowest figure in all the year's they've been keeping track since 2004.  That really hit home.

At the same , the four-year graduation rate for the class of 2014 was 67 percent and the six-year graduation rate for students who began in 2012 was 85 percent.....both records in a positive sense that coincided with acceptance rates of 57% for Fall 2012, and 64% for Fall 2014.

Thoughts?

89% acceptance rate?  That's Arizona State like.  Yikes!MU not

Retention is up from when I was there in the 90's, I think we were in the 70's and the university was rightfully very concerned.  As some have mentioned, there are many factors involved, but I do think cost is at the forefront. I know I would have left had I not gotten an additional scholarship and that was when the cost was "only" $20K all in.

The graduation rate is a bit disturbing.  67% is far below peer institutions. That either points to MU bringing in kids who are not prepared for the rigor or MU or MU not providing the resources to get students through in 6 years. 

ACT and SAT score compared to previous times is not really a good measure as those scores have been inflated, especially the SAT.  I don't remember my SAT score (I didn't go to an Ivy so it isn't on my resume to constantly remind me) but I've read that one who took the test more than 15 years ago should add 200 points to their score to get an equivalent score today.  And, of course, we know grade inflation is rampant today, especially at the stronger private schools.
“You either smoke or you get smoked. And you got smoked.”

GGGG

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2018, 10:57:50 AM »
I would like to see what the retention rate is for each of the years included in this statistic.

"The lowest since 2004" isn't all that meaningful as a stand-alone stat if it is within a couple of tenths of several other years. For Marquette, each tenth represents about 2 students.

As a comparison, I found several sources that say the average retention rate for a private university is about 80%.  Average for a public institution is 72%.


It's the lowest by nearly a full percent.

http://www.marquette.edu/oira/rate-dash.shtml

Playing around with that graph is interesting.  Under "Cohort Rates" you can isolate the problem.  It looks as though they are having issues with underepresented minorities, particularly males.  The black, hispanic and more than one race categories are well below historic averages. 

Then if you look at this graph under "Undergraduate Students," you will see that the number of "Students of Color" went up as well - by 5% over five years.  Particularly focused on Hispanic students.

http://www.marquette.edu/oira/composition-dash.shtml

And then you go back to this announcement, and I think we may have a greater understanding of the underlying issues at play.

http://www.marquette.edu/diversity/hispanic-serving-institution-initiative.php

In narrowing the data down, it looks as though Marquette brought in 330 Hispanic freshmen in Fall 2017, which is a 75% increase over that four year span.  However they only retained 84% of those 330 whereas they retained 89% of the 188 Hispanic freshmen in 2014.

I wonder if they realized this issue by bringing in 310 Hispanic freshmen this year.  Maybe the program grew too far, too fast and they didn't have the infrastructure to handle it.

GGGG

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2018, 10:59:24 AM »
89% acceptance rate?  That's Arizona State like.  Yikes!MU not

Retention is up from when I was there in the 90's, I think we were in the 70's and the university was rightfully very concerned.  As some have mentioned, there are many factors involved, but I do think cost is at the forefront. I know I would have left had I not gotten an additional scholarship and that was when the cost was "only" $20K all in.

The graduation rate is a bit disturbing.  67% is far below peer institutions. That either points to MU bringing in kids who are not prepared for the rigor or MU or MU not providing the resources to get students through in 6 years. 


You are misreading.  67% is the four year rate.  The six-year rate is 85%.

jsglow

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2018, 11:04:22 AM »

You are misreading.  67% is the four year rate.  The six-year rate is 85%.

And 6 years is the standard industry measurement.

jsglow

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Re: Record Enrollment but Freshman Rention Rate Declines
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2018, 11:05:42 AM »

Again, they are targeting a smaller population.  That is why the acceptance rate is higher.  The statistic is meaningless.

This.