Expectations

[1SE]

I can't even say I was surprised this morning to get up and see the scoreline.

While some post season success (probably in the NIT) would be great, this team has basically lived up to the exact collective expectation of Scoop. For what it's worth here are my picks from Brew's prediction thread

Total Record: 18-12
Big East Record: 9-9
Big East Finish: 6
Big East Tournament Record: 1-1
Postseason: NCAA first four loss [11 seed]

Pretty darn close, as was I think the modal prediction.

But I hoped for more. Wojo's tenure infuriates me for no other reason than we do exactly as well as we expect every year. Maybe it's because I came of age in the Crean/Buzz era where it felt like we were the team that always punched above its weight. It felt good to have the chip on the shoulder and make the pundits eat crow every year. But that's not this era.

So I can't call for Wojo's head this year (not that it matters in the least if I do) and all I can do is hope that he meets Scoop's collective expectation for next season and beyond. If we can consistently field a team that we expect should finish top-3 BE and is in the 3-6 seed NCAA range year-in and year-out and we exactly meet those expectations, that's fine. I don't think Wojo is ever going to be able to take what he has and get 110% out of it. But if he's a "C" coach, fielding "A" teams, that's fine.

Hoping for a bit of magic in March, but the eyes are on next year.

[wisblue]

My sentiments exactly. Because I tend to be pessimistic about my teams’ prospects (the harsh reality of 60 years of following teams like the Brewers) when a team meets my expectations that isn’t a good thing.

I am hopeful for next season, but extremely frustrated that the guard situation is such a huge question mark in a sport that is so guard dominated. I see the pieces that are here and the pieces coming in, but can’t convince myself yet that the end result will be a top half finish in a conference with several very stable, high quality programs and others that are also a player or two away from joining that upper tier.

[tower912]

I looked at that iconic photo after the Villanova win of the players standing on top of the scorers table surveying the crowd with those smiles on their faces.    All of those guys were gone.    The only player who was on the floor at the end of that game that returned this year was Sam.    Replaced by freshmen, a redshirt sophomore, and a mid year transfer with half of a season under his belt.    I predicted a ceiling of 22 wins and a floor of 17.   
   Haanif left, I started a thread about changing expectations for the team.    Haanif certainly wasn't a world beater, but he was a big guard in a league of big guards who could get his shot, run the point in an emergency,  and play some defense.    I looked around the league and what was left on the roster and I was genuinely concerned about reaching .500 for the season, let alone the conference.   I didn't post it, because I knew what the response would be.   No getting around it, though, I was nervous.  But the freshmen stepped up.     They were still freshmen in a big, experienced league, but they competed.   They were physically overmatched on a regular basis, but they fought. 
   Wojo and defense.    Last night, Villanova shined a light on the true weakness of this team.    V has big, strong guards.    They would isolate their big strong guards, have everybody else clear out, and have their Sacar sized guards with skill drive through our 5'10 thin guards.    Even when our guys stayed in front, they lacked the size to keep V from the rack.     So, one of the fundamental problems of this team defensively is having tiny guards in a big guard league.    Rowsey and Howard are not great defenders.  They are really bad guarding someone 8 inches taller, 50 lbs heavier, who moves as fast as they do.    Also, being guarded by those much larger guards makes it  harder to get open looks.     Simple physics.   
   But I see a structural problem in the man to man, particularly against the dreaded high pick and roll.    MU does what so many do, doubling the ball handler with the big who's man set the screen.    Buzz's team did this, it is a staple.    Here is where MU's defense failed.    MU left the big up high.     They switched that ball screen.    Leaving Matt/Theo/Luke/Harry all trying to defend the guard in space and taking the best rim protector and rebounder 20 feet from the basket.    Other teams will have their defender of the PG recover after the hall handler is turned while the big dashes back to the lane with his arms up to try to block that pass.     MU too often ended up with a big guarding a quick in space, with Andrew and Markus trying to contend with a rolling 6'10 guy at the rim.   T

This approach can work if you have mobile bigs and guards with size.  (MSU)   If, for example, it was Sacar initially guarding the ball handler and Sam guarding the shooter in the corner, when the big rolled, there would be two guys with adequate size and strength to contest.   That isn't what happened for Marquette.   

So, this team was a little better than I thought they would be after Haanif left.     Going forward, MU is losing a leader and gaining size.    Cain and Elliott need to live in the weight room.    Sam needs to get that hip fixed and work on his lateral quickness, as he is going to be guarding 3's next year.    Sacar needs to work on his ball handling, as the last couple games as shown me that is the only thing stopping him from being a really good 2.    Markus needs to work on ballhandling, and sharing.      I doubt the magic graduate transfer PG with size is coming through that door.    I doubt Harry comes back.   But Eke is and there is plenty of other size.    Matt and Theo will be a year better.   Morrow is going to be a double double machine.     Not 30 points a game, but a whole bunch of 12/10 games. 

If the team returns relatively intact.    If the Greg and Jamal are 15 lbs of muscle heavier.   If Bailey, Joey, and Morrow are who we think they are, the pieces are there for a really good team.     Guard depth is the issue.   The coaches know it and are actively trying to fix it.    If they fix it with a quality piece or pieces,  a second weekend finish is in sight.   

[Babybluejeans]

I can't even say I was surprised this morning to get up and see the scoreline.

While some post season success (probably in the NIT) would be great, this team has basically lived up to the exact collective expectation of Scoop. For what it's worth here are my picks from Brew's prediction thread

Total Record: 18-12
Big East Record: 9-9
Big East Finish: 6
Big East Tournament Record: 1-1
Postseason: NCAA first four loss [11 seed]

Pretty darn close, as was I think the modal prediction.

But I hoped for more. Wojo's tenure infuriates me for no other reason than we do exactly as well as we expect every year. Maybe it's because I came of age in the Crean/Buzz era where it felt like we were the team that always punched above its weight. It felt good to have the chip on the shoulder and make the pundits eat crow every year. But that's not this era.

So I can't call for Wojo's head this year (not that it matters in the least if I do) and all I can do is hope that he meets Scoop's collective expectation for next season and beyond. If we can consistently field a team that we expect should finish top-3 BE and is in the 3-6 seed NCAA range year-in and year-out and we exactly meet those expectations, that's fine. I don't think Wojo is ever going to be able to take what he has and get 110% out of it. But if he's a "C" coach, fielding "A" teams, that's fine.

Hoping for a bit of magic in March, but the eyes are on next year.

This is a perfect distillation of the Wojo era. Well said. Punching above our weight was so common for a decade+, it became the expectation. So now that we don't do that under Wojo, it feels like a failure. Juicing the most out of teams - more than most people thought possible - is what a lot of us miss about Buzz. Demanding that Wojo defy expectations is not necessarily fair, it's just what we had come to know because Buzz, for all his craziness, is simply a great coach.

[MarquetteDano]

Really comes down to defensive scheme. We are outside the top 150 in defense per Pomeroy which is pathetic.

Having to play two diminutive guards and a lack of a shot blocker down low... sure that is a large part of it.

However, if you look at some of the defensive teams above us some of them have a real lack of athletic talent and also a dearth of height.  Yet they are better defensively.

Expectations will continue to be met or disappoint until the defensive scheme improves.

[GooooMarquette]

Yes, we met the preseason expectations of most Marquette fans.  But we did it with our most experienced player (Haanif) leaving after five games. He was also one of our best defensive players...and defense was our biggest issue.

If we were asked to make our preseason predictions based on the assumption that Haanif would be gone that early, I suspect most of us would have downgraded MU a couple of games...and we would now be talking about how we did better than we predicted.

[chapman]

But I hoped for more. Wojo's tenure infuriates me for no other reason than we do exactly as well as we expect every year. Maybe it's because I came of age in the Crean/Buzz era where it felt like we were the team that always punched above its weight. It felt good to have the chip on the shoulder and make the pundits eat crow every year. But that's not this era.

I feel like this is a good summary of where many here have a disconnect.  Some are speaking of season expectations, others are speaking of program expectations.  From a standpoint of season expectations, it's hard to say this team didn't meet expectations.  Others speak of program expectations, and expect to be comfortably in the NCAA tournament more often than not.  For that to have occurred this year, the team would have had to far exceed their season expectations, which could be seen as unrealistic.  Will also make next year the real test - the season expectation is to be comfortably in the NCAA tournament, and missing out and putting up one NCAA appearance in five years could be seen as a breaking point when measuring against program expectations.

[1SE]

But I also don't understand why we are still giving Wojo the "personnel" pass. It's year 4. He has a gazillion dollar recruiting budget. Why don't we have a bunch of juniors that include some 6'5" guards and a lane-dominator?

Next year's team looks good on paper, but many of our teams have looked good on paper. And we're missing a PG. If we don't fill that spot with something quality for next year what are our expectations? Just making the Dance?

[The Lens]

Haanif was injured early on and when Sacar was starting many wondered, was Sacar starting on merit or because of Haanif's injury.  Some wondered would Haanif see much time.  I can't get too worked up about Haanif leaving.

I've come to the reality that this coaching staff is not going to engineer you any wins.  The good news is they seem to be ahead of the game recruiting-wise and their development of talent has been solid.  Sacar alone gives me great confidence. 

Next year is big.

[f/k/a humanlung]

Really comes down to defensive scheme. We are outside the top 150 in defense per Pomeroy which is pathetic.

Having to play two diminutive guards and a lack of a shot blocker down low... sure that is a large part of it.

However, if you look at some of the defensive teams above us some of them have a real lack of athletic talent and also a dearth of height.  Yet they are better defensively.

Expectations will continue to be met or disappoint until the defensive scheme improves.

Defense is all about effort.  During the DePaul game, the TV commentator recapped an MU huddle reporting that Wojo asked the team "Is offense fun?"  All the players nodded.  He then said, something to the effect of, offense isn't going to win.  You need to play defense.

Why this message needs to be delivered in the first round of the Big East tournament is mystifying to me.  This should be Day 1 of practice and Day 2, Day 3, etc...  And those who do not "buy-in" to the message should have a wonderful on-court seat watching those who do "buy-in" when games are played.   

We do not win on a consistent basis until defense becomes more of a focus for this program.  It has been a problem under Wojo (for a number of valid reasons) prior to this season but with the talent on this team, the time for making excuses is over, in my opinion.  Far too much talent to be this pathetic (yes, pathetic) on the defensive end of the floor.

[Floorslapper]

Haanif was injured early on and when Sacar was starting many wondered, was Sacar starting on merit or because of Haanif's injury.  Some wondered would Haanif see much time.  I can't get too worked up about Haanif leaving.

I've come to the reality that this coaching staff is not going to engineer you any wins.  The good news is they seem to be ahead of the game recruiting-wise and their development of talent has been solid.  Sacar alone gives me great confidence. 

Next year is big.

This is the ultimate reality.  I suspect it will ultimately take Wojo landing Top 50 talent in order for us to be a consistent NCAA team.  I doubt we will ever move beyond a Sweet 16 under Wojo, and actually not sure he can even get us there.

Haanif leaving was addition by subtraction.  Never played well at all against high major competition.  Below the rim player.  Cain and Anim far more athletic, and both with much more upside.

[tower912]

Haanif is a 6'5 guard in a league of big guards.    He was a junior on a team without experience or depth.     Two game difference. 

[skianth16]

I feel like this is a good summary of where many here have a disconnect.  Some are speaking of season expectations, others are speaking of program expectations.  From a standpoint of season expectations, it's hard to say this team didn't meet expectations.  Others speak of program expectations, and expect to be comfortably in the NCAA tournament more often than not.  For that to have occurred this year, the team would have had to far exceed their season expectations beat a #180 ranked RPI team in the friendliest road game on the schedule, which could be seen as unrealistic a piece of cake.  Will also make next year the real test - the season expectation is to be comfortably in the NCAA tournament, and missing out and putting up one NCAA appearance in five years could be seen as a breaking point when measuring against program expectations.

FIFY

Seton Hall ended up not being as tough as we thought they'd be, Wisconsin turned out to be hot garbage, and St John's fell below expectations as well. So while we may have ended up right where we thought we'd be despite losing Haanif, our schedule ended up being easier than we probably expected too.

This isn't to say there's no credit due to the team or to Wojo for the successes they've had, but I think if we're talking about expectations from November, it makes sense to consider the full scope of what occurred during the season.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Haanif is a 6'5 guard in a league of big guards.    He was a junior on a team without experience or depth.     Two game difference.

Again, he provided no Value Add when he was here...the 2nd worst defensive value add on the team. So, is that two more losses?

Greg, Jamal and Sacar stepped up and gave us more. MU didn't need a moper to stick around to get us over the top. MU needed one more conference win to land us in 3rd place. Haanif hanging on would have made it three more.

[skianth16]

Haanif is a 6'5 guard in a league of big guards.    He was a junior on a team without experience or depth.     Two game difference.

I think Sacar filled Haanif's shoes just fine. I'll take sophomore Sacar over sophomore Haanif any day. We'll never know how good junior Haanif could have been, but in the end, I don't think it was a two game difference.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Haanif is a 6'5 guard in a league of big guards.    He was a junior on a team without experience or depth.     Two game difference.

My suspicion is that Haanif was getting demoted in favor of Sacar & the frosh and he bolted. His offense never progressed at all from freshman year, and Sacar/Cain/Elliott's defense is just as good if not better while providing slashing/shooting/decision-making Cheatham did not possess. Do we win the St. John's/DePaul game because of wing depth with him here? Maybe @DePaul. But do we come back @Creighton with him playing over those guys? Do we win @Georgetown? Creighton at home? I submit no. Haanif was addition by subtraction, his leaving made way for better players.

[tower912]

Depth.  Having more than one Scar sure would have been nice.  Many talked about taking out the small guys at the end of games.   Putting in an experience 6'5 guy sure would have been a nice option.  Dr.B, I don't think Haanif is awesome.   I think he is a 6'5 junior on a team lacking size, experience and depth.  Sure Greg and Jamal developed.  But sometimes they played like skinny freshmen.  Sometimes, Greg fell over while dribbling.  Sometimes, Cain got pushed out of the way.   When Markus got hurt, it would have been nice to have an extra guard. 
Depth, experience, size, options.  Cost us two games.

[Pakuni]

This is a perfect distillation of the Wojo era. Well said. Punching above our weight was so common for a decade+, it became the expectation. So now that we don't do that under Wojo, it feels like a failure. Juicing the most out of teams - more than most people thought possible - is what a lot of us miss about Buzz. Demanding that Wojo defy expectations is not necessarily fair, it's just what we had come to know because Buzz, for all his craziness, is simply a great coach.

I think this is a myth, though.
If you want to make an argument that Buzz's teams were way undervalued by preseason prognosticators, I'll agree with you. If you want to laud Buzz for finding talented players who were ignored/undervalued by recruiting services and the like, I'd say that's without a doubt Buzz's greatest strength as a coach.

But saying his teams punched above their weight just doesn't hold up when you look at the rosters. 
- The 2010 team that lost in the first round to #11 Washington featured two future first-round picks (Hayward, Butler) and two others who had a cup of coffee in the league (DJO, Buycks). Three of the four were upperclassmen.
- The 2011 team that squeaked into the tourney and then pulled out a couple upsets to go to the Sweet 16 had six future NBA players on the roster. All but one was an upperclassman.
- The 2009 team that eked past Utah State then lost in the second round had three future NBA players plus the program's all-time leading scorer. And all five starters were upperclassmen.
I think the only team you could argue punched above its weight class, when you consider the roster talent, was the 2013 squad.
These were not bands of scrappy overachievers. They were teams with high-level talent.

I think when you compare Buzz's rosters to Wojo's, especially in terms of experience, it's not even close. Wojo doesn't get a pass on this. His recruiting and roster management bears responsibility for why MU seems to be one of the least experienced (and least deep) teams in the league every year. But we seem to be turning the corner in that regard heading into next season, so expectations reasonably should be raised.

[MUBigDance]

I like this thread in that criticisms are measured and the original premise was well stated (1SE).

I don’t agree with everything said about Wojo’s coaching future...but I am a MU fan as a product of the Buzz era. I like Buzz and will always root for him. I do feel the same about punching up and exceeding expectations in the past. Excellent wording. I think next year’s team might get us back there. We will see.

As for this year getting into the tournament will be a thrill and I’ll be looking for the first game upset.

[mu_hilltopper]

In this vein, maybe someone can do some maths:

How many games did MU win under the Wojo/Buzz/Crean regimes that were unexpected/underdog wins?

How many did they lose that were unexpected/favorite losses?

[warriorfred]

I think this is a myth, though.
If you want to make an argument that Buzz's teams were way undervalued by preseason prognosticators, I'll agree with you. If you want to laud Buzz for finding talented players who were ignored/undervalued by recruiting services and the like, I'd say that's without a doubt Buzz's greatest strength as a coach.

But saying his teams punched above their weight just doesn't hold up when you look at the rosters. 
- The 2010 team that lost in the first round to #11 Washington featured two future first-round picks (Hayward, Butler) and two others who had a cup of coffee in the league (DJO, Buycks). Three of the four were upperclassmen.
- The 2011 team that squeaked into the tourney and then pulled out a couple upsets to go to the Sweet 16 had six future NBA players on the roster. All but one was an upperclassman.
- The 2009 team that eked past Utah State then lost in the second round had three future NBA players plus the program's all-time leading scorer. And all five starters were upperclassmen.
I think the only team you could argue punched above its weight class, when you consider the roster talent, was the 2013 squad.
These were not bands of scrappy overachievers. They were teams with high-level talent.

I think when you compare Buzz's rosters to Wojo's, especially in terms of experience, it's not even close. Wojo doesn't get a pass on this. His recruiting and roster management bears responsibility for why MU seems to be one of the least experienced (and least deep) teams in the league every year. But we seem to be turning the corner in that regard heading into next season, so expectations reasonably should be raised.

I think that is a fair critique.  Wojo's first recruiting class was a bust.  This was a constant criticism of Crean as well (he couldn't keep recruiting classes for continuity and sustained success).  I am willing to give Wojo some latitude on this, but if it becomes a pattern, the program will not sustain any success and all fingers will point at Wojo.

The nice part is that one (1) year from now, we will have answers.

[brewcity77]

But I also don't understand why we are still giving Wojo the "personnel" pass. It's year 4. He has a gazillion dollar recruiting budget. Why don't we have a bunch of juniors that include some 6'5" guards and a lane-dominator?

Next year's team looks good on paper, but many of our teams have looked good on paper. And we're missing a PG. If we don't fill that spot with something quality for next year what are our expectations? Just making the Dance?

First, good thread. I know you've had frustrations but have always been rational about the pros and cons. As someone that always looks for a silver lining, I like being able to discuss this with people who aren't constant doom and gloom.

Next year is absolutely rubber meets the road time. I think two recruiting wins hurt Wojo in team construction. The first was Henry Ellenson. You don't pass on a McDonald's All American and certain NBA first round pick when you're trying to rebuild, but that may well have cost us future depth in Gabe Levin and Steve Taylor and star power in Kyle Washington. Maybe those guys still go elsewhere, but Henry certainly impacted their decisions.

The second was Markus Howard. Again, how do you pass on a sharpshooting point guard that is one of the leaders on a gold medal U-18 Team USA squad and would've likely been an All American had he not graduated early? I think the staff had to take Markus, but they already had Rowsey on the roster. Does it become harder to land future guards like Jordan Poole, Terrance Lewis, Noah Locke, Torrence Watson, or Quentin Grimes when we've already seen one starting point guard in Traci Carter transfer while citing Howard as a reason for his transfer?

Are those excuses, self-made roadblocks, or simple mismanagement? I don't know. But on paper, next year should be the one where the defense improves and the team rises up the league. Until we see the results, the jury remains out.

[Goose]

brewcity

I was a top tier PG I would love to play alongside Howard. Zero idea on how Howard makes it difficult to land a top level PG. Howard is NOT a PG.

[mug644]

I agree with Pakuni that "punching above our weight" is a rosy recollection of years past. He spoke of Buzz's tenure, but my first thought was about Crean's (like WarriorFred's). I recall years of feeling like the teams faded last season and rarely met hopes and expectations (2003 notwithstanding, obviously). That was part of people's frustration with Crean, that he couldn't seem to get the team to meet it's potential (that, and he couldn't recruit a quality big).

[Silkk the Shaka]

I think this is a myth, though.
If you want to make an argument that Buzz's teams were way undervalued by preseason prognosticators, I'll agree with you. If you want to laud Buzz for finding talented players who were ignored/undervalued by recruiting services and the like, I'd say that's without a doubt Buzz's greatest strength as a coach.

But saying his teams punched above their weight just doesn't hold up when you look at the rosters. 
- The 2010 team that lost in the first round to #11 Washington featured two future first-round picks (Hayward, Butler) and two others who had a cup of coffee in the league (DJO, Buycks). Three of the four were upperclassmen.
- The 2011 team that squeaked into the tourney and then pulled out a couple upsets to go to the Sweet 16 had six future NBA players on the roster. All but one was an upperclassman.
- The 2009 team that eked past Utah State then lost in the second round had three future NBA players plus the program's all-time leading scorer. And all five starters were upperclassmen.
I think the only team you could argue punched above its weight class, when you consider the roster talent, was the 2013 squad.
These were not bands of scrappy overachievers. They were teams with high-level talent.

I think when you compare Buzz's rosters to Wojo's, especially in terms of experience, it's not even close. Wojo doesn't get a pass on this. His recruiting and roster management bears responsibility for why MU seems to be one of the least experienced (and least deep) teams in the league every year. But we seem to be turning the corner in that regard heading into next season, so expectations reasonably should be raised.

Agreed. Buzz's teams were stacked and experienced. It was great! Wojo's teams will be similarly stacked & experienced the next 2 years for the first time in his tenure. Expectations should be top 3 Big East, S16 or better.