Bubble Watch 2018

[GooooMarquette]

The only curveball we need to hit is Villanova.

We got this.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Is St. Mary's really a lock?

RPI 36
SOS 182

Best wins
@Gonzaga 29
New Mexico St 41
BYU 81
@BYU 81

Two bad losses (sub 100)
Washington St
@San Francisco

0 games vs top 25 RPI
12-0 sub 200

(compared to Marquette 0-6 vs top 25, 5-0 sub 200)

They're considered a lock but I am not so sure.

[mu03eng]

Thanks for pulling this together. If you accepted this as the actual state of the bubble (which obviously none of us can assume) it also highlights how shaky MU's position would be if they beat DePaul then lose. It wouldn't take many teams behind them picking up one or two decent wins to jump ahead. Then there's the possibility of bid stealers. At least there can't be one in the B10 and Loyola winning the MVC ends any possibility of them making a case for an at large.

When teams like Penn State with weak resumes and no more games to play are showing up on the "next out" lists, it shows that the bubble is really shrinking.

Here's the thing though, the other teams on the bubble are on the bubble for a reason...they haven't proven they can win consistently against tough competition. I mean the PAC12 is darn near a 1 bid league. If we don't beat Nova that doesn't mean some how other teams are going to win their version of the Nova games to get ahead of us.

I think we are in Dayton if we go 1-1 unless the bubble breaks just about all the wrong ways for us (at least 4 teams go on deep conference runs).

[cheebs09]

I feel there's going to be a few head scratcher bubble decisions. I think the committee could have us anywhere from a 10 seed or 8 spots out.

The fact Lunardi and Palm didn't really have us on the radar for so long makes me think the prognosticators will be more inaccurate than usual. There's so many bubble options, who knows what the committee is picking as their tiebreaker.

[TallTitan34]

I feel there's going to be a few head scratcher bubble decisions. I think the committee could have us anywhere from a 10 seed or 8 spots out.

The fact Lunardi and Palm didn't really have us on the radar for so long makes me think the prognosticators will be more inaccurate than usual. There's so many bubble options, who knows what the committee is picking as their tiebreaker.

This.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

2nd team out in Lunardi's update this morning.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Last Four Byes:
Kansas State
Providence
Arizona state
Baylor

Last Four In:
Texas
USC
UCLA
Alabama

First Four Out:
Louisville
Marquette
OK State
Notre Dame

Next Four Out:
Syracuse
Penn State
Boise State
Nebraska

[BM1090]

Last team in in Palm's morning update

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

3rd last team in per Bracketville's update this morning

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I did a quick review this morning.  I got 14 bubble teams competing for 8 spots.

It is going to be incredibly tight. Very little separating the last byes from the NIT 2 seeds.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I have a tough time figuring out Louisville ahead of MU in the pecking order. 

Sure they have no bad losses, but their 9 ACC wins are so blah.  Two good wins, two decent wins, and the rest is trash. 

Pitt (H)
Florida State (A)
Virginia Tech (H)
Notre Dame (A)
Boston College (H)
Wake Forest (H)
Georgia Tech (H)
Georgia Tech (A)
Pitt (A)
Virginia Tech (A)

Best non-con win was Indiana.  Lost 7 of last 10.  Only 4 Q1 and Q2 wins combined.

Q1: 3-10
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0

Not seeing it, personally.  They should be in the convo and their RPI and SOS help, but I think MU's wins are clearly superior.

[MU82]

I won't complain about our fate no matter what because we controlled our own destiny.

But I do have to admit I don't want ND to get in at our expense! That would suck!! Here's hoping the Effen Irish fall fast and hard in the ACC tourney.

[mu03eng]

I have a tough time figuring out Louisville ahead of MU in the pecking order. 

Sure they have no bad losses, but their 9 ACC wins are so blah.  Two good wins, two decent wins, and the rest is trash. 

Pitt (H)
Florida State (A)
Virginia Tech (H)
Notre Dame (A)
Boston College (H)
Wake Forest (H)
Georgia Tech (H)
Georgia Tech (A)
Pitt (A)
Virginia Tech (A)

Best non-con win was Indiana.  Lost 7 of last 10.  Only 4 Q1 and Q2 wins combined.

Q1: 3-10
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0

Not seeing it, personally.  They should be in the convo and their RPI and SOS help, but I think MU's wins are clearly superior.

This is going to be one of the prime examples of things we will learn this year, do they value good wins or no bad losses more. They simply are doing things different this year so it is creating a lot more uncertainty. Honestly, in the old system with our RPI and SoS I think we're in relatively comfortably but with the new systems where quality of wins is numerically represented and higher order metrics are considered we're in a little more difficult/uncertain position.

My mind boggles that if Seton Hall lost to Butler or if we had beaten DePaul we would be safely in going 1-1 in Big East. I mean is the path really that narrow this year? How are SEC teams with losing conference records getting into the dance over us?

This will be the most anxious tournament selection in years for MU and I'm not sure I'm ready for it.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

This is going to be one of the prime examples of things we will learn this year, do they value good wins or no bad losses more. They simply are doing things different this year so it is creating a lot more uncertainty. Honestly, in the old system with our RPI and SoS I think we're in relatively comfortably but with the new systems where quality of wins is numerically represented and higher order metrics are considered we're in a little more difficult/uncertain position.

My mind boggles that if Seton Hall lost to Butler or if we had beaten DePaul we would be safely in going 1-1 in Big East. I mean is the path really that narrow this year? How are SEC teams with losing conference records getting into the dance over us?

This will be the most anxious tournament selection in years for MU and I'm not sure I'm ready for it.

Yep.  I still need to see it to believe it with regards to the SEC getting 8-9 bids.

However, regarding the bolded, going 1-1 with a win over Hall, Creighton, Butler or PC is a little different than beating Depaul.  Tougher win to get.

[mu03eng]

Yep.  I still need to see it to believe it with regards to the SEC getting 8-9 bids.

However, regarding the bolded, going 1-1 with a win over Hall, Creighton, Butler or PC is a little different than beating Depaul.  Tougher win to get.

The quality of the win over DePaul really doesn't matter, but it gets us to 10-8 in conference at the 3 seed in the Big East....yes the committee doesn't care about conference standings but damn that would be a tough thing to explain leaving out the 3rd place team in the 3rd best conference in the country with an SoS in the top 30 and an RPI in the top 50.

So if we had beaten DePaul, we wouldn't be in a position to need the 1-1 in Big East IMO

[Golden Avalanche]

I have a tough time figuring out Louisville ahead of MU in the pecking order. 

Sure they have no bad losses, but their 9 ACC wins are so blah.  Two good wins, two decent wins, and the rest is trash. 

Pitt (H)
Florida State (A)
Virginia Tech (H)
Notre Dame (A)
Boston College (H)
Wake Forest (H)
Georgia Tech (H)
Georgia Tech (A)
Pitt (A)
Virginia Tech (A)

Best non-con win was Indiana.  Lost 7 of last 10.  Only 4 Q1 and Q2 wins combined.

Q1: 3-10
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0

Not seeing it, personally.  They should be in the convo and their RPI and SOS help, but I think MU's wins are clearly superior.

Louisville will sell more tickets than Marquette. No one will say it publicly but it matters.

[LoudMouth]

I did a quick review this morning.  I got 14 bubble teams competing for 8 spots.

It is going to be incredibly tight. Very little separating the last byes from the NIT 2 seeds.

What are the 14 teams you are considering for the bubble?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The quality of the win over DePaul really doesn't matter, but it gets us to 10-8 in conference at the 3 seed in the Big East....yes the committee doesn't care about conference standings but damn that would be a tough thing to explain leaving out the 3rd place team in the 3rd best conference in the country with an SoS in the top 30 and an RPI in the top 50.

So if we had beaten DePaul, we wouldn't be in a position to need the 1-1 in Big East IMO

Yah, I agree. I thought you were saying 1-1 would be necessary at 10-8.  I don't believe it would as you'd be playing another tourney team.  Think we're on the same page. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Louisville will sell more tickets than Marquette. No one will say it publicly but it matters.

It shouldn't matter to Lunardi.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Is St. Mary's really a lock?

RPI 36
SOS 182

Best wins
@Gonzaga 29
New Mexico St 41
BYU 81
@BYU 81

Two bad losses (sub 100)
Washington St
@San Francisco

0 games vs top 25 RPI
12-0 sub 200

(compared to Marquette 0-6 vs top 25, 5-0 sub 200)

They're considered a lock but I am not so sure.

A couple of brackets had them on the last 4 byes line. I stayed up to watch their quarterfinal game with sub 300 rpi Pepperdine. The Waves led the entire game,  even had a 15 point lead at one point but the Gaels pulled it out in the end. I think that could have ended their season

[Herman Cain]

2nd team out in Lunardi's update this morning.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Last Four Byes:
Kansas State
Providence
Arizona state
Baylor

Last Four In:
Texas
USC
UCLA
Alabama

First Four Out:
Louisville
Marquette
OK State
Notre Dame

Next Four Out:
Syracuse
Penn State
Boise State
Nebraska

Will be interesting how the Committee treats Nebraska. 4th place in conference and won 13 games in conference for a 22-10 overall.  The prognosticators all seem to have written them off.

[LAZER]

Louisville will sell more tickets than Marquette. No one will say it publicly but it matters.

It probably doesn't and Louisville's incremental ticket sales would be drop in the bucket when it's all said and done.

[TallTitan34]

I'm hoping having Creighton's AD as committee head also gives us an additional boost.  If Marquette makes it, his conference and his school makes more $$$$.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Will be interesting how the Committee treats Nebraska. 4th place in conference and won 13 games in conference for a 22-10 overall.  The prognosticators all seem to have written them off.

Because they managed to win 13 Big 10 games and only beat 1 tournament team, at home.  They only have 4 RPI top 100 wins, and one of those is Boston College.  All games were at home.

I don't think they're even in the discussion.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Because they managed to win 13 Big 10 games and only beat 1 tournament team, at home.  They only have 4 RPI top 100 wins, and one of those is Boston College.  All games were at home.

I don't think they're even in the discussion.

Terrible SOS, weak B1G schedule, only 1 win of relevance.  They're NIT bound.

[Herman Cain]

Because they managed to win 13 Big 10 games and only beat 1 tournament team, at home.  They only have 4 RPI top 100 wins, and one of those is Boston College.  All games were at home.

I don't think they're even in the discussion.

That is what their fan board thinks too.
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2018-march-madness-nebraska-husker-bracket-bubble-team-seed-big-ten/blgi9lzjod7e1g63luarg5e4n

[Boozemon Barro]

Nebraska fans/media kept saying they passed the eye test and were sure they'd be in if they could get a quality win against Michigan last week. They went out and got smashed by Michigan and looked terrible in the process. They had a stretch where they went 1-20 from the floor. In my opinion they don't even belong in the bubble conversation.