Bubble Watch 2018

[WhiteTrash]

Not an expert here but wasn't Nevada's loss a big deal for the bubble?

[wisblue]

Not an expert here but wasn't Nevada's loss a big deal for the bubble?

Probably not. Nevada is considered to be pretty much a lock for the tournament and one loss isn't going to change that.

The bubble impact would come if Nevada does not win the Mountain West conference tournament and lands in the at large pool. Nevada could then take an at large spot from one of the teams now on the bubble.

[WhiteTrash]

Probably not. Nevada is considered to be pretty much a lock for the tournament and one loss isn't going to change that.

The bubble impact would come if Nevada does not win the Mountain West conference tournament and lands in the at large pool. Nevada could then take an at large spot from one of the teams now on the bubble.

My bad, I thought it was in their conference tournament. These early small conference tournaments like the OVC and B1G throw me off.

[MuMark]

Louisville goes down at NC State.

MuMark (IIRC) has been sharing bracketville, one of the more historically accurate brackets out there. Going into today here was how the back end of their bracket looked:

Last Four Byes: Providence (beat SJU), USC, Saint Mary's, Alabama (lost at TAMU)
Last Four In: Kansas State (beat Kansas State), Washington (lost to Oregon at home), Baylor (lost at Kansas State), UCLA
First Four Out: Texas (beat West Virginia), Louisville (lost at NC State), Syracuse (beat Clemson), Marquette (beat Creighton)
Next Four Out: Mississippi State (lost at LSU), Nebraska (done), Utah, Boise State

Based on today's results so far, I would say Texas and Syracuse will move in after today while Washington and Baylor will slide out. Alabama slides closer to the cut off line. Not sure if Marquette will jump Baylor.

Now if we can add a UCLA loss to USC....I think either Marquette or Baylor takes that spot.

Again, this is all based on this one bracketologist.

He says we are in as of now

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

[muguru]

He says we are in as of now

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

So does Palm..

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[wisblue]

Because there aren't many games with bubble implications for the next few days there will be plenty of time to compare teams and resumes. For those who enjoy doing this, what things on their team sheets do you think the Committee value the most:

1. RPI
2. Overall computer metrics
3. Quadrant 1 records.
4. Quadrant 1 and 2 records combined
5. Quality of Q1 wins (giving extra credit for higher ranked opponents)
6. Losses in Quadrants 3 and 4.
7. Strength of Schedule
8. OOC SOS
9. Quality of road wins
10. Impact of injuries during the season (the ND Factor).
11. Others

I am intentionally eliminating things that some people will be talking about that the Committee says it doesn't consider. These include conference records and standings, number of teams from a conference in the field, and how a team has played in the last few weeks or month.

[Jay Bee]

Because there aren't many games with bubble implications for the next few days there will be plenty of time to compare teams and resumes. For those who enjoy doing this, what things on their team sheets do you think the Committee value the most:

1. RPI
2. Overall computer metrics
3. Quadrant 1 records.
4. Quadrant 1 and 2 records combined
5. Quality of Q1 wins (giving extra credit for higher ranked opponents)
6. Losses in Quadrants 3 and 4.
7. Strength of Schedule
8. OOC SOS
9. Quality of road wins
10. Impact of injuries during the season (the ND Factor).
11. Others

1a. Losses to DePaul

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

He says we are in as of now

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

And if I'm reading this correctly, we are in and buffered by both Syracuse and Alabama. Nice.

So here's what next for the people around us on the bubble:

Last Four Byes:
Butler: Seton Hall then winner of Nova/MU/Depaul
Arizona State: Colorado then Arizona
Kansas State: TCU then winner of KU/OkSt/OU
Texas: Iowa State then Texas Tech

Last Four In:
UCLA: Winner of Stanford/Cal then winner of ASU/Colo/Zona
Marquette: Depaul then Nova
Syracuse: Wake Forest then UNC
Alabama: Texas A&M then Auburn

First Four Out
Baylor: West Virginia then winner of TTU/TU/IAST
Washington: Oregon St then USC
USC: Winner of WASH/OrSt then winner of Utah/ORE/WSU
Oklahoma State: Oklahoma then Kansas

Next Four Out:
Louisville: Florida State then Virginia
Notre Dame: Pittsburgh then Virginia Tech
LSU: Mississippi State then Tennessee
Penn State: DONE

There are a lot of teams in our boat with a game against a "lesser" team before playing a quality opponent. Lots of opportunities for a slip up.

Oh and Arizona State is a 9 seed in the PAC 12. They shouldn't be on the right side of the bubble

[MuMark]

Dance Card has us in with a cushion as if now.......is ASU really in jeopardy of missing the tournament? Man that would be an epic collapse

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[Babybluejeans]

Bracket Matrix is updated and still shows us as the third out. However, the number of brackets that have us in the tourney doubled overnight, from 12 to 25 (if I remember right).

[Marquette4life]

Dance Card has us in with a cushion as if now.......is ASU really in jeopardy of missing the tournament? Man that would be an epic collapse

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

i love how it gives us a 100% chance to dance

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

i love how it gives us a 100% chance to dance

Also gives Temple a 99.75% chance, so....

[wisblue]

And if I'm reading this correctly, we are in and buffered by both Syracuse and Alabama. Nice.

So here's what next for the people around us on the bubble:

Last Four Byes:
Butler: Seton Hall then winner of Nova/MU/Depaul
Arizona State: Colorado then Arizona
Kansas State: TCU then winner of KU/OkSt/OU
Texas: Iowa State then Texas Tech

Last Four In:
UCLA: Winner of Stanford/Cal then winner of ASU/Colo/Zona
Marquette: Depaul then Nova
Syracuse: Wake Forest then UNC
Alabama: Texas A&M then Auburn

First Four Out
Baylor: West Virginia then winner of TTU/TU/IAST
Washington: Oregon St then USC
USC: Winner of WASH/OrSt then winner of Utah/ORE/WSU
Oklahoma State: Oklahoma then Kansas

Next Four Out:
Louisville: Florida State then Virginia
Notre Dame: Pittsburgh then Virginia Tech
LSU: Mississippi State then Tennessee
Penn State: DONE

There are a lot of teams in our boat with a game against a "lesser" team before playing a quality opponent. Lots of opportunities for a slip up.

Oh and Arizona State is a 9 seed in the PAC 12. They shouldn't be on the right side of the bubble

Thanks for pulling this together. If you accepted this as the actual state of the bubble (which obviously none of us can assume) it also highlights how shaky MU's position would be if they beat DePaul then lose. It wouldn't take many teams behind them picking up one or two decent wins to jump ahead. Then there's the possibility of bid stealers. At least there can't be one in the B10 and Loyola winning the MVC ends any possibility of them making a case for an at large.

When teams like Penn State with weak resumes and no more games to play are showing up on the "next out" lists, it shows that the bubble is really shrinking.

[MuMark]

i love how it gives us a 100% chance to dance

No,it doesn't......it says teams with our current profile have made it 100% of the time in previous seasons........bubble is strong this year.......going to be a couple if teams that would have made it in past years there are going to be left out.

[goldeneagle91114]

Lunardi update from Twitter: he currently has us as the first team listed in the "first 4 out" group. Seems like a 49/51 percent odds. This is going to be a long week, until selection Sunday

[BM1090]

Lunardi update from Twitter: he currently has us as the first team listed in the "first 4 out" group. Seems like a 49/51 percent odds. This is going to be a long week, until selection Sunday

This was before UCLA beat USC. So we could be anywhere from last team in to 2nd team out depending on how he reshuffles those two teams.

[MUFlutieEffect]

i love how it gives us a 100% chance to dance

Anybody with ESPN Insider know what they have us at in terms of a tournament bid percentage?

[BM1090]

Anybody with ESPN Insider know what they have us at in terms of a tournament bid percentage?

I can look if you let me know where I'd find that.

[drewm88]

Bracket Matrix is updated and still shows us as the third out. However, the number of brackets that have us in the tourney doubled overnight, from 12 to 25 (if I remember right).

Afternoon update has us in 29 brackets. 2nd team out.

Edit: later afternoon update has us up to 32 brackets.

[auburnmarquette]

Sorry if this is in here, just back on computer and trying to catch up.

So Palm has us last team IN

Lunardi has us first team OUT

ESPN Resume has us SEVEN in for what it's worth - and 11 seed with no playin game.

And Bracketmatrix has us 4th team out:

Bracket Matrix
Last Four In
Providence 67
UCLA 62
Alabama 52
Baylor 51
First Four Out
Louisville 34
Marquette 32
Syracuse 28
Oklahoma State 11

[auburnmarquette]

See Lunardi's tweet from yesterday

[MU82]

Sounds like "crapshoot" starts well before the tourney for us!

[brewcity77]

I'm leaning in, but if anything, this bubble shows two things. First, we have always been a lot closer than many thought. Second, there's a lot of dispute how the new factors will influence the Committee's decisions.

Based on the number of legit good wins we have, proving we can win away from home, and across the board solid computer numbers, I feel relatively confident, but this is definitely the year they could throw some curveballs that no one sees coming.

[real chili 83]

I'm leaning in, but if anything, this bubble shows two things. First, we have always been a lot closer than many thought. Second, there's a lot of dispute how the new factors will influence the Committee's decisions.

Based on the number of legit good wins we have, proving we can win away from home, and across the board solid computer numbers, I feel relatively confident, but this is definitely the year they could throw some curveballs that no one sees coming.

.

The only curveball we need to hit is Villanova.

[Babybluejeans]

It's a coin flip now and a coin flip it shall be next Sunday unless we beat Villanova.