Bubble Watch 2018

[PGsHeroes32]

Butler realize they got a game to win for us???

[94Warrior]

is Butler SHU on tv anywhere?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Louisville goes down at NC State.

MuMark (IIRC) has been sharing bracketville, one of the more historically accurate brackets out there. Going into today here was how the back end of their bracket looked:

Last Four Byes: Providence (beat SJU), USC, Saint Mary's, Alabama (lost at TAMU)
Last Four In: Kansas State (beat Kansas State), Washington (lost to Oregon at home), Baylor (lost at Kansas State), UCLA
First Four Out: Texas (beat West Virginia), Louisville (lost at NC State), Syracuse (beat Clemson), Marquette (beat Creighton)
Next Four Out: Mississippi State (lost at LSU), Nebraska (done), Utah, Boise State

Based on today's results so far, I would say Texas and Syracuse will move in after today while Washington and Baylor will slide out. Alabama slides closer to the cut off line. Not sure if Marquette will jump Baylor.

Now if we can add a UCLA loss to USC....I think either Marquette or Baylor takes that spot.

Again, this is all based on this one bracketologist.

[Its DJOver]

is Butler SHU on tv anywhere?

Cbssn had a late start because some mvc game went ot

[jsglow]

is Butler SHU on tv anywhere?

CBSSN

[94Warrior]

Cbssn had a late start because some mvc game went ot

Thanks.

[auburnmarquette]

is Butler SHU on tv anywhere?

Yes, CBS sports 221 on direct TV. They didn't click over first 11 minutes due to overtime in previous game.

[MuMark]

Lunardi just tweeted that he us ad first team out as of now

[fjm]

Come oooooon Butler. What the crap.

[Smokin' Jae]

Doesn't look good. Butler is ice cold from 3. Tough to believe we lost to these guys twice, Martin and not much else, Baldwin is wildly inefficient

[Babybluejeans]

Poop. Butler doesn't look likely to win this. Hoping the rest of the bubble loses and a win over DePaul means something.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

SH interior passing looks dynamite tonight.

[Windyplayer]

Come oooooon Butler. What the crap.

Eh, after a discussion with a fellow scooper and looking at some advanced metrics projections, I'm thrilled that we're going the DePaul, Nova route.

[Marquette4life]

Eh, after a discussion with a fellow scooper and looking at some advanced metrics projections, I'm thrilled that we're going the DePaul, Nova route.

why:..

[Windyplayer]

why:..

Get to 20 wins after W against DePaul (likely still matters - it shouldn't) then have a chance to lock up a bid against Nova. Regardless of outcome against Nova, our advanced numbers improve. It's the perfect hedge. If we played Providence in the quarters, it's an absolute must win against a solid team or we're toast, and even with a win, a berth is far from a certainty. With a Nova win, we're talking about seeding not bubble. With a loss, we're cautiously optimistic.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

F you Butler

[MuMark]

Get to 20 wins after W against DePaul (likely still matters - it shouldn't) then have a chance to lock up a bid against Nova. Regardless of outcome against Nova, our advanced numbers improve. It's the perfect hedge. If we played Providence in the quarters, it's an absolute must win against a solid team or we're toast, and even with a win, a berth is far from a certainty. With a Nova win, we're talking about seeding not bubble. With a loss, we're cautiously optimistic.

Um...  win against Depaul only gets us to 19.......

[94Warrior]

I'd happily play in Dayton at this point. 

[Windyplayer]

Um...  win against Depaul only gets us to 19.......

True. My bad. Your double ellipsis at the end is ominous.

[muguru]

I'd happily play in Dayton at this point.

If they would have just beaten DePaul one week ago, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Dammit! 

[Its DJOver]

Now I've been enjoying my beverages at my local drinkery, but watching USC, UCLA, neither team would worry me if we got them in Dayton. Couldn't give an analysis,  just been a relatively sloppy game with both teams missing wide open looks.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Middle Tennessee State lost at home to Marshall today. They should be the auto-bid from CUSA but if they lose in the tournament, could they steal a bid? Bracket Matrix has them as the top 11 seed and some brackets list them as high as a six seed (which is crazy).

They have three Q1 wins which is impressive...until you look at the Q1 wins. They are road wins over Murray State, Western Kentucky, and Old Dominion....not exactly movers and shakers. Computer numbers are solid and today's loss to Marshall is their worst.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Western Kentucky got blasted by UAB. C-USA looks like a one bid league.

[brewcity77]

Middle Tennessee State lost at home to Marshall today. They should be the auto-bid from CUSA but if they lose in the tournament, could they steal a bid? Bracket Matrix has them as the top 11 seed and some brackets list them as high as a six seed (which is crazy).

Hoping MTSU gets the auto and WKU loses early to eliminate any drama there, but I'm glad to see both lose. If someone else does win CUSA, it damages either team's at large shot. I'm all about dragging them to the cut line. 5 combined Q1/2 wins and I'd argue their best Q1 win is lesser quality than our worst. Especially that they now have a Q3 loss.

[wisblue]

Middle Tennessee State lost at home to Marshall today. They should be the auto-bid from CUSA but if they lose in the tournament, could they steal a bid? Bracket Matrix has them as the top 11 seed and some brackets list them as high as a six seed (which is crazy).

They have three Q1 wins which is impressive...until you look at the Q1 wins. They are road wins over Murray State, Western Kentucky, and Old Dominion....not exactly movers and shakers. Computer numbers are solid and today's loss to Marshall is their worst.

MTSU is an interesting case. Though the NCAA says they don't consider past years' performances, I think they will get a closer look because of their wins in the first round the last 2 years. If they don't get the auto bid, that would mean another loss that could be a bad one. As you point out, their Q1 wins are not impressive, so they have no wins over teams in the NCAA field (unless one of the lesser teams gets an auto bid.

Their OOC SOS is solid (7) though it's hard to see exactly why when you see their opponents. They must do an unusually good job of avoiding those really bad teams.

I wouldn't give them an at large bid, but I wouldn't be shocked if the NCAA did. They sometimes seem to like to throw a bone to the critics who say they give too many bids to the power conferences. Have to hope they win the auto bid; I really don't see Western Kentucky getting an at large bid. Their resume is a November win over Purdue and not much else.