Bubble Watch 2018

[GoldenDieners32]

how

by beating CU saturday and getting one in the BET, tough to do but we got it

[Mu2323]

Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.

That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.

[SaveOD238]

It's the Q1 and Q2 wins, people.  We have 7 right now.  If we win two more against Creighton and then anybody in NYC we would have NINE.  Not many teams can match that on the bubble.  (Having 5 true road wins also helps) 

[Marquette4life]

It aint enough

[Its DJOver]

Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.

That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.

Most people thought we would be a lock if we went 3-0 over the last 3. 2-1 puts us firmly on the bubble, can't pick up a bad loss in NYC, and as long as we get the 6 seed, any win would be Q1.

Most teams on the bubble have at least one Q3/Q4 loss, and as bad as DePaul is, other teams have worse losses

[DCHoopster]

Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.

That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.

I agree, the NIT looks really interesting, play Notre Dame.  Get a good seed and play a few games, do not play Rowsey, just underclassmen, might as well.

[Marquette4life]

Most people thought we would be a lock if we went 3-0 over the last 3. 2-1 puts us firmly on the bubble, can't pick up a bad loss in NYC, and as long as we get the 6 seed, any win would be Q1.

Most teams on the bubble have at least one Q3/Q4 loss, and as bad as DePaul is, other teams have worse losses

yes but the thing is, we were barely on the radar before depaul, now we aren't on it. We just dont have the time to make it up

[Its DJOver]

yes but the thing is, we were barely on the radar before depaul, now we aren't on it. We just dont have the time to make it up

We might not have been on E$PN's radar, but based on bracket matrix, we've been right there for a while now.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.

That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.

Regarding the bolded, I agree.  But its not the people you're referring to.

[SaveOD238]

It's the Q1 and Q2 wins, people.  We have 7 right now.  If we win two more against Creighton and then anybody in NYC we would have NINE.  Not many teams can match that on the bubble.  (Having 5 true road wins also helps)

Did some quick research on the NCAA Nitty Gritty report.  If we use the formula Q1wins + Q2wins - Q3 and Q4 losses this is what we get:

St. Bona 4 (Q1) +4 (Q2) -2 (Q3 and Q4) = 6
USC 4+4-1= 7
LVille 3+2-0= 5
Syracuse 2+4-2= 4
Washington 3+2-2= 3
Utah 3+3-1= 5
UCLA 3+3-2= 4
Nebraska 1+2-1= 2 (yikes)
Mississippi State 3+4-0= 7
K-State 3+6-1= 8
Baylor 4+2-0= 6
Georgia 4+4-2= 6
MARQUETTE 4+3-1= 6

So of those bubble teams...THREE have better scores on my very basic quadrant method here.  Add two more Q1 and Q2 wins (with basically no chance of a Q3 or Q4 loss) and we're at 9.  We're at least in the conversation.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tonight's bubble action:

Tennessee @ Mississippi State (First Four Out)
Florida @ Alabama (9 seed; probably safe)
Missouri (10 seed) @ Vanderbilt
Miami (9 seed; probably safe) @ North Carolina
Auburn @ Arkansas (7 seed, probably safe but 9-7 in SEC)
Oklahoma (8 seed) @ Baylor (last four in)
Kansas State (11 seed) @ TCU
Davidson @ St. Bonnie (last four in)
Boise State (next four out) @ San Diego State

[cheese ball chaser]

ESPN's Bubble Watch just came out. They have Nova, Xavier, Creighton, Butler and SH as locks. Providence is "should be in" and Marquette is "work to do." At least we're still in the conversation, and that was before we beat Georgetown last night.

[79Warrior]

Not to sound like Wades but Saturday's the biggest game of the season.

We basically control our own destiny here on out.

We have been controlling our own destiny since we got to the "easy" part of the schedule.

[brewcity77]

Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.

That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.

You got that first sentence right. The rest, not so much. When it comes to selection, one downfall of the bracketologists is they create a bracket in December or January then move teams in and out based on results. That's not what the Selection Committee does. They aren't working on the notion of constantly updating from an old bracket, they are starting in the now.

That's why we saw the massive flaw in the Lunardi model. Marquette was in the bracket and Georgia wasn't even next four out. Over the next couple weeks, MU went 3-1 and Georgia went 2-3 and we dropped off consideration while they moved to first four out. Why? Because he isn't looking at the resumes with fresh eyes, he's just updating on a daily basis. In doing so, he sees the micro changes but completely misses the big picture that the committee focuses on.

That's why people like 5J, TAMU, and myself are still bullish on our chances. Because we're looking at blind resumes and seeing that Marquette compares favorably to most anyone in the 16 on the bubble spots. Compare the losses. Compare the Q1/Q2 performances. Compare the road records. Compare the computer metrics. We're right there, even if the micro view doesn't see it.

[DCHoopster]

Beat Creighton twice and Hall twice, then MU has something to talk about.  Saturday is important, then have to win at least one but probably 2 games in the tourny.
Which we could play Providence or X.  Not Villy.

[wisblue]

ESPN's Bubble Watch just came out. They have Nova, Xavier, Creighton, Butler and SH as locks. Providence is "should be in" and Marquette is "work to do." At least we're still in the conversation, and that was before we beat Georgetown last night.

Here is the whole summary about MU from the ESPN Bubble Watch:

"In theory, the Golden Eagles should be a Bubble Watch memory by this point. This is a team that lost at DePaul a few days ago and now sports a record of 16-12 and 7-9 in Big East play.

All true enough. Still, the season sweep over Seton Hall, plus the road wins at Creighton and Providence are still there on Marquette's profile. That's not good enough on its own for an at-large bid, goodness knows, but finishing with a win at home against Creighton can at least continue the conversation."

The write up says 7-9 in conference, but the data in the heading says 8-9. Basically, the GU win doesn't help much other than removing the possibility of a fatal loss.

The NBC Sports website has a daily "Bubble Banter" feature with winners and losers from the previous day. Here is what they say about MU after the Georgetown win:

"Marquette flirted with disaster, but disaster couldn't seal the deal, meaning that the Golden Eagles avoided losing to DePaul and Georgetown in back-to-back games. I still think Marquette is pretty far away from the bubble at this point. Not only is Saturday's home game against Creighton a must-win, but they are going to have to win at least a game or two in the Big East tournament if they really, truly want to be in the mix for a bid on Selection Sunday."

The national consensus seems pretty clear: MU beating Creighton and winning one game in the BET is a necessary, but not necessarily sufficient, condition to MU getting an at large bid. A tall order for a team that I don't think has won 3 straight BE games in the Wojo era.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Here is the whole summary about MU from the ESPN Bubble Watch:

"In theory, the Golden Eagles should be a Bubble Watch memory by this point. This is a team that lost at DePaul a few days ago and now sports a record of 16-12 and 7-9 in Big East play.

All true enough. Still, the season sweep over Seton Hall, plus the road wins at Creighton and Providence are still there on Marquette's profile. That's not good enough on its own for an at-large bid, goodness knows, but finishing with a win at home against Creighton can at least continue the conversation."

The write up says 7-9 in conference, but the data in the heading says 8-9. Basically, the GU win doesn't help much other than removing the possibility of a fatal loss.

The NBC Sports website has a daily "Bubble Banter" feature with winners and losers from the previous day. Here is what they say about MU after the Georgetown win:

"Marquette flirted with disaster, but disaster couldn't seal the deal, meaning that the Golden Eagles avoided losing to DePaul and Georgetown in back-to-back games. I still think Marquette is pretty far away from the bubble at this point. Not only is Saturday's home game against Creighton a must-win, but they are going to have to win at least a game or two in the Big East tournament if they really, truly want to be in the mix for a bid on Selection Sunday."

The national consensus seems pretty clear: MU beating Creighton and winning one game in the BET is a necessary, but not necessarily sufficient, condition to MU getting an at large bid. A tall order for a team that I don't think has won 3 straight BE games in the Wojo era.

It appears to me that the ESPN bubble watch was written yesterday, before MU played.  Don't think much would change, but worth noting.

Also worth noting that Rob Dauster does the NBC write-ups, and while he is decent twitter follow, he doesn't do his own brackets, and not sure his opinion is worth much of anything.

[wisblue]

It appears to me that the ESPN bubble watch was written yesterday, before MU played.  Don't think much would change, but worth noting.

Also worth noting that Rob Dauster does the NBC write-ups, and while he is decent twitter follow, he doesn't do his own brackets, and not sure his opinion is worth much of anything.

The ESPN bubble watch was at least edited after last night's games because it mentions VT's win over Duke and puts the Hokies into lock status. It also includes comments about Texas' loss to Kansas. And, as I said, the heading for MU has their updated record. So, there was probably a conscious decision that a win over GU (Q3) does nothing to improve MU's status and required no editing. If MU had lost they probably would have been dropped completely.

[Windyplayer]

So beat Creighton and we can be content with regard to our regular season finishing conference at 9-9 given our defensive deficiencies, mid-season transfer, and a head coach still cutting his teeth - even if that means an NIT. Of course, I want more and I think we can get more with a strong showing at the BET.

One thing we can all agree on is that the next two years (and hopefully beyond) are going to be a lot of fun.

[WayOfTheWarrior]

You got that first sentence right. The rest, not so much. When it comes to selection, one downfall of the bracketologists is they create a bracket in December or January then move teams in and out based on results. That's not what the Selection Committee does. They aren't working on the notion of constantly updating from an old bracket, they are starting in the now.

That's why we saw the massive flaw in the Lunardi model. Marquette was in the bracket and Georgia wasn't even next four out. Over the next couple weeks, MU went 3-1 and Georgia went 2-3 and we dropped off consideration while they moved to first four out. Why? Because he isn't looking at the resumes with fresh eyes, he's just updating on a daily basis. In doing so, he sees the micro changes but completely misses the big picture that the committee focuses on.

That's why people like 5J, TAMU, and myself are still bullish on our chances. Because we're looking at blind resumes and seeing that Marquette compares favorably to most anyone in the 16 on the bubble spots. Compare the losses. Compare the Q1/Q2 performances. Compare the road records. Compare the computer metrics. We're right there, even if the micro view doesn't see it.

Preach!

[BM1090]

The ESPN bubble watch was at least edited after last night's games because it mentions VT's win over Duke and puts the Hokies into lock status. It also includes comments about Texas' loss to Kansas. And, as I said, the heading for MU has their updated record. So, there was probably a conscious decision that a win over GU (Q3) does nothing to improve MU's status and required no editing. If MU had lost they probably would have been dropped completely.

Well, it also says we are 7-9 in conference so.....

[wisblue]

NM

[GoldenDieners32]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2761517-2018-ncaa-tournament-bracket-latest-projection-of-the-field-of-68

[injuryBug]

If you put up blind resumes of about 40 teams I think many would be shocked how we look compared to many that are supposedly locks in the tournament.  If that Depaul loss happened 2 months ago the talk is completely different.

Oklahoma for one is a team that should be on the outside looking in.  They are not a good team currently.

[Newsdreams]

Is SH still a lock if they lose their next two games (won't hurt them much against Xavier & Nova), and we win Sat., SH would become 7th. I know it is unlikely but if they lose to DePaul, I think they end up in the bubble.