Bubble Watch 2018

[Windyplayer]

Barring a crazy comeback, SHU beats PC on the road. Definitely the better result for us. Solidifies the two Q1 wins we have and drops PC back towards the cutline.

Providence is in serious danger territory. Next three are @Gtown, @Xavier, and home to SJU. They could realistically lose all three to close out the year and miss NCAA.

[Windyplayer]

Only explanation I can come up with.  There are multiple teams ahead of us in his eyes that have worse RPI, SOS, fewer Q1/Q2 wins and more Q3/Q4 loses.  What else could it be?

Completely agree. He is either shirking, big time, or does not give a damn about the overt ESPN bias in which case he endangers his reputation, which is everything in his line of work.

[mu03eng]

Completely agree. He is either shirking, big time, or does not give a damn about the overt ESPN bias in which case he endangers his reputation, which is everything in his line of work.

He's at little risk of endangering his reputation.....at this point of the season there aren't that many fanbases that are paying that close attention outside of the E$PN contracted teams.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Completely agree. He is either shirking, big time, or does not give a damn about the overt ESPN bias in which case he endangers his reputation, which is everything in his line of work.

I mean he's got Boise and Utah in there, and they're not ESPN teams.  USC and St. Bonnie last 4 in. 

Utah probably deserves in the be in the first 8 out somewhere, USC is questionable as whether they belong in the field right now.  St. Bonnie probably deserves to be in for now as well until they pick up another bad loss, which is conveivable with their remaining schedule of @VCU, vs. Davidson, @SLU.

I am not sure what is causing him to downgrade MU, but when you spread the resumes, there is basically nothing I can find that would indicate MU shouldn't be somewhere between a 10 seed and the first few teams out at the moment. 

[mikekinsellaMVP]

We're going to keep winning, but we need the bubble teams to falter.

So let's wish the worst on our bubble competition:

Providence still has to play @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns.  Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor.  Go Sooners/Frogs!
NC State still has to play Florida State, @Georgia Tech, and Louisville.  Go Noles/Jackets!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va.  Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC.  Go Buffs/Trojans!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU.  Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState.  Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson.  Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State.  Go Hokies/Cavs!
Washington has to play @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon.  Go Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA.  Go Buffs (again)!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU.  Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt.  Go Cocks (again)!
Penn State just has @Nebraska.
Nebraska just has Penn St
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado.  Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn.  Go Aggies/Vols!

In summary, we really like TCU, Oklahoma, Colorado, and South Carolina down the stretch.  PAC 12 chaos is also probably a good thing.

If LSU finishes blistering hot -- like win out and pick up at least 2 wins in the SEC tourney hot -- there's a chance they sneak into the RPI top 50 and our Maui win slides up to Quadrant 1.

If Georgia backslides too much, they could fall out of the RPI top 75 and we would have a Quadrant 3 loss.

Geaux Tigers!  Don't suck too much, Dawgs!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If LSU finishes blistering hot -- like win out and pick up at least 2 wins in the SEC tourney hot -- there's a chance they sneak into the RPI top 50 and our Maui win slides up to Quadrant 1.

If Georgia backslides too much, they could fall out of the RPI top 75 and we would have a Quadrant 3 loss.

Geaux Tigers!  Don't suck too much, Dawgs!

SJU is also right on the cutoff of Q1 road loss and Q2 home win.  They're at 75 in RPI and thats the last spot.  We need them to win a couple games here.

[UNC Eagle]

I asked him on Twitter and he said 4 more wins in a row, or 5 if we win out and get the 7 seed which I don't even know if that's possible. I think he's way off on this one.

This is what my line of thinking is. Gives MU good resume and the one more quality win gets a good seeding to boot. I think it is possible.

[mikekinsellaMVP]

SJU is also right on the cutoff of Q1 road loss and Q2 home win.  They're at 75 in RPI and thats the last spot.  We need them to win a couple games here.

No worries.  The Johnnies have to win out to fulfill my 5-way tie fantasy anyway.

[mu03eng]

If LSU finishes blistering hot -- like win out and pick up at least 2 wins in the SEC tourney hot -- there's a chance they sneak into the RPI top 50 and our Maui win slides up to Quadrant 1.

If Georgia backslides too much, they could fall out of the RPI top 75 and we would have a Quadrant 3 loss.

Geaux Tigers!  Don't suck too much, Dawgs!

LSU and Georgia don't play each other do they?

[bilsu]

how does Joey construct his bracket?
A - He tries to forecast how teams will finish the season and put together a bracket that most closely resembles how he thinks the committee will select teams

Or

B - Its real time. If the season ends today, this is who he thinks would be in and out?

I wonder if part of not mentioning Marquette is that be thinks we will slip up over the next 3 games.

It may have to do with the Howard injury, which makes MU hard to predict.

[mikekinsellaMVP]

LSU and Georgia don't play each other do they?

Saturday in Columbia.

Honestly, the SEC might make for the best conference viewing in the next 10 days.  3rd thru 12th separated by two games.

[mu03eng]

Saturday in Columbia.

Honestly, the SEC might make for the best conference viewing in the next 10 days.  3rd thru 12th separated by two games.

So is that a no-win or no-lose situation for us?

[BM1090]

Tonight:

Washington @ Stanford
UCLA @ Utah. Not sure here.
Arizona State @ Oregon. One more loss would definitely eliminate Oregon
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky. don't hold your breath

[WarriorInNYC]

Tonight:

Washington @ Stanford
UCLA @ Utah. Not sure here.
Arizona State @ Oregon. One more loss would definitely eliminate Oregon
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky. don't hold your breath

Gotta be Utah, UCLA is projected in at the moment, Utah is projected behind us.

[PGsHeroes32]

Tonight:

Washington @ Stanford
UCLA @ Utah. Not sure here.
Arizona State @ Oregon. One more loss would definitely eliminate Oregon
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky. don't hold your breath

Oregon ain't getting in.

ASU is lucky they started so hot

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Oregon ain't getting in.

ASU is lucky they started so hot

Yah, I'd root for Oregon in that one. 

[Dish]

Most of this doesn't matter until conference tournaments start. Rather than focusing on nightly matchups, better perspective is how bubble teams roads in their conference tournament lineup. The real concern is if a team like Northwestern, San Diego St, or Oregon win their conference tournaments.

[BM1090]

Yah, I'd root for Oregon in that one.

Eh. ASU is a 6 seed and has won 3 of 4 since their skid. They are basically locked in. That game is probably irrelevant to our bubble hopes.

[BM1090]

Most of this doesn't matter until conference tournaments start. Rather than focusing on nightly matchups, better perspective is how bubble teams roads in their conference tournament lineup. The real concern is if a team like Northwestern, San Diego St, or Oregon win their conference tournaments.

I don't know much about the MWC this year, but I'm not at all concerned about Oregon or Northwestern winning their conference tournament.

[Dish]

I don't know much about the MWC this year, but I'm not at all concerned about Oregon or Northwestern winning their conference tournament.

Bigger point being is that it happens every year, teams from out of nowhere are going to steal bids. The only game that should matter to MU fans at this point is @ DPU on Saturday. Once conference tourney week(s) start, everything can change out of nowhere.

[JakeBarnes]

Tonight:

Washington @ Stanford
UCLA @ Utah. Not sure here.
Arizona State @ Oregon. One more loss would definitely eliminate Oregon
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky. don't hold your breath

Utah per T-rank site recommendations. We are pretty decent Utah fans for now.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Eh. ASU is a 6 seed and has won 3 of 4 since their skid. They are basically locked in. That game is probably irrelevant to our bubble hopes.

Most likely yes.  But ASU is 7-7 in a meh league.  I have a real hard time seeing an 8-10 P12 team get an invite. 

[GB Warrior]

He's at little risk of endangering his reputation.....at this point of the season there aren't that many fanbases that are paying that close attention outside of the E$PN contracted teams.

Plus, the man makes brackets for a living, so let's pump the brakes on how much reputation he has.

[Windyplayer]

Saturday in Columbia.

Honestly, the SEC might make for the best conference viewing in the next 10 days.  3rd thru 12th separated by two games.

In South Carolina???

[mikekinsellaMVP]

In South Carolina???

Sorry, Athens.

Eleven months after the fact and my brain's still fixated on our "neutral site" screw job.