Bubble Watch 2018

[BM1090]

Alabama and Louisville lost. Boise State won.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Virginia Tech is the big winner today. Pretty much every other legit bubble team lost or treaded water. OK State perhaps inching nearer to the cutline with a big W.

Looks like Texas is going to lose @K State. Probably the preferable result.

Overall great day for Marquette and it’s chances.

[Avenue Commons]

Keep in mind, we play Gtown on Monday.  Road game Saturday in Chicago then a road game in DC.  Tough schedule there with 3 games, 2 on the road, over 5 days.

Is DePaul in Chicago really a “road game?”

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Is DePaul in Chicago really a “road game?”

Not to me. Should be a lot of Marquette fans there for a Saturday game, even thought it's an early start.

I do consider it pretty close to a must win.

[BM1090]

USC won which is unfortunate. Not a big win but losing at Colorado would have put a big dent in their chances

[wisblue]

Michigan put a pretty big dent in Penn State last night, denying them a chance for a resume building win.

[PGsHeroes32]

Lunardi bracket supposedly updated but all those teams that lost yesterday literally went up or at the very least stayed level

Wtf

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Here is Lunardi's update for this morning:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Still no mention of Marquette.  Honestly, I don't really get it.  His first four out and next four out are UCLA, Texas, Washington, Penn State, Nebraska, Boise State, Utah and Georgia.  I think you could make an argument for UCLA, Texas and Washington being ahead of MU in the pecking order, but after that....I think MU's resume is considerably better than Penn State, Nebraska, Boise, Utah and Georgia (even with the H2H win).  I will add the resume info later today when I get some time.   

Kind of confused.

[Its DJOver]

Lunardi bracket supposedly updated but all those teams that lost yesterday literally went up or at the very least stayed level

Wtf

I have no idea what's going on with his bracket.  We have significantly better numbers than some teams that he has in his first 4 out/ next 4 out, but still no love.  Keep winning and we'll start showing up

[PGsHeroes32]

I have no idea what's going on with his bracket.  We have significantly better numbers than some teams that he has in his first 4 out/ next 4 out, but still no love.  Keep winning and we'll start showing up

Yeah and his bracket isn’t the be all end all but it was still weird to me.

The fact we don’t even show up in the first 8 out and a team like Syracuse advanced a spot for losing.

[PistolBrad]

I might be wearing my conspiracy tin foil hat but I think Lunardi purposely puts teams who don’t play on ESPN regularly, lower on his brackets.  It makes a lot of sense for ESPN to have him do this so more people watch “bubble” teams on ESPN

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I mean seriously though....Lunardi's Feb 5 bracket had MU as the first team out.  Since then they've gone 3-1 with two huge road wins over Seton Hall and Creighton, and a split with red hot St. Johns.  It makes no sense.

[mu03eng]

I might be wearing my conspiracy tin foil hat but I think Lunardi purposely puts teams who don’t play on ESPN regularly, lower on his brackets.  It makes a lot of sense for ESPN to have him do this so more people watch “bubble” teams on ESPN

I will 100% wear that tin foil hat with you, it's classic E$PN. If I had the time to document it you will see a significant difference between the final Lunardi bracket and a bracket two weeks before, one of the drivers of that is because the final bracket is what is used to determine "how accurate are you" so he's not going to biff that one. I think they play in the margins with the bubble teams based on best viewership pushing.

[Warrior of Law]

To not be in the final 8 to get a bid is painful as a fan, and certainly raises a red flag as to the objectivity of the report. 

Of course, to quote Wojo "Win Every Day" applies to Sat in Chicago...then DC...and then home with Creighton.  A trip up likely gets us ND in the NIT.

[Floorslapper]

Michigan put a pretty big dent in Penn State last night, denying them a chance for a resume building win.

Penn State, despite their loss to Michigan last night, is 27 in Pomeroy.  They have 2 wins over Pomeroy #14 Ohio State.  They likely finish 20-11, and 10-8 in Big 10.  Probably want them to beat Nebraska to fully knock Nebraska off bubble.  Think we have to concede Penn State being in NCAA.

[DCHoopster]

Here is Lunardi's update for this morning:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Still no mention of Marquette.  Honestly, I don't really get it.  His first four out and next four out are UCLA, Texas, Washington, Penn State, Nebraska, Boise State, Utah and Georgia.  I think you could make an argument for UCLA, Texas and Washington being ahead of MU in the pecking order, but after that....I think MU's resume is considerably better than Penn State, Nebraska, Boise, Utah and Georgia (even with the H2H win).  I will add the resume info later today when I get some time.   

Kind of confused.

Just win and MU will not have to worry.  But I believe the Creighton game at home is an important win.  You beat Hall and Creighton both times, can not see MU behind either team then.  Can not slip up at Depaul, Gtown can go either way, but Creighton is a must victory.  Go 9-9 and maybe win a game in the tournament,
MU will be fine.  Just do not want to play Villy the first game, so can not be in the 7-8 game to start with them.  They are really good.  They have a great chance to
win it all.  Brunson, Bridges and DeVincinco (sp) are really good.

[Its DJOver]

I will 100% wear that tin foil hat with you, it's classic E$PN. If I had the time to document it you will see a significant difference between the final Lunardi bracket and a bracket two weeks before, one of the drivers of that is because the final bracket is what is used to determine "how accurate are you" so he's not going to biff that one. I think they play in the margins with the bubble teams based on best viewership pushing.

+1, as long as he can keep his whatever% this will continue.  A lot of people look at his and others overall percentage, but forget that usually <80% of the field is already guaranteed by now, and his what teams get in % is high, but his seed prediction accuracy is much lower.

[BM1090]

Palm, who has been down on MU, even seems to be higher on us than Lunardi. In this bubble watch last night he said we needed to go 2-2 down the stretch to get consideration but realistically needed to do more than that.

There is a HUGE difference between 9-9 and 10-8 though according to T Rank. 9-9 would have us as the first team out of the tournament. 10-8? Jumps us over EIGHT teams and we enter as the 2nd best 10 seed.

[LAZER]

Penn State, despite their loss to Michigan last night, is 27 in Pomeroy.  They have 2 wins over Pomeroy #14 Ohio State.  They likely finish 20-11, and 10-8 in Big 10.  Probably want them to beat Nebraska to fully knock Nebraska off bubble.  Think we have to concede Penn State being in NCAA.

You're way off on this, have you been paying attention at all to the bubble? 

Edit: Also, we definitely want Nebraska to win too, which they'll likely be a slight favorite to do.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Here is Lunardi's update for this morning:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Still no mention of Marquette.  Honestly, I don't really get it.  His first four out and next four out are UCLA, Texas, Washington, Penn State, Nebraska, Boise State, Utah and Georgia.  I think you could make an argument for UCLA, Texas and Washington being ahead of MU in the pecking order, but after that....I think MU's resume is considerably better than Penn State, Nebraska, Boise, Utah and Georgia (even with the H2H win).  I will add the resume info later today when I get some time.   

Kind of confused.

Lunardi's First Four Out:

UCLA (19-8 (10-5))
Average Metric (RPI/KPI/SOR/BPI/Kenpom/Sagrin): 50
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 7-0
Best 3 wins: Kentucky (N), Arizona (A), USC (H)
Worst 3 losses: Oregon State (a), Colorado (H), Stanford (A)


Texas (16-12 (6-9))
Average Metric: 39
Q1: 5-9
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 5-0
Best 3 wins: Texas Tech (H), TCU (H), Alabama (A)
Worst 3 losses: OK State (A), Baylor (H), K State (H)


Washington (18-9 (8-6))
Average Metric: 76
Q1: 4-4
Q2: 1-3
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 6-0
Best 3 wins: Kansas (A), Arizona (H), Arizona State (H)
Worst 3 losses: Oregon State (A), Stanford (H), Oregon (A)


Penn State (19-11 (9-8))
Average Metric: 48
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 5-2
Q4: 10-0
Best 3 wins: Ohio State (A), Ohitio State (H), Nebraska (H)
Worst 3 losses: Minnesota (H), Wisconsin (H), Northwestern (A). Also lost to Rider at home, which per RPI is their 5th worst loss.


Nebraska (21-9 (12-5))
Average Metric: 55
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 11-0
Best 3 wins: Michigan (H), Maryland (H), Northwestern (A)
Worst 3 losses: Illinois (A), Penn State (A), UCF (N)


Boise State (21-6 (12-4))
Average Metric: 56
Q1: 0-2
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-2
Q4: 11-0
Best 3 wins: Loyola-Chicago (H), Illinois State (N), Fresno State (A)
Worst 3 losses: Utah State (A), Iowa State (N), Wyoming (A)


Utah (17-9 (9-6))
Average Metric: 57
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 6-0
Best 3 wins: Arizona State (A), Washington (A), Missouri (H)
Worst 3 losses: UNLV (N), Colorado (A), BYU (A)


Georgia (15-12 (6-9))
Average Metric: 65
Q1: 6-7
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 4-2
Q4: 3-0
Best 3 wins: Tennessee (H), Alabama (H), Marquette (A)
Worst 3 losses: UMASS (A), San Diego St. (N), Vanderbilt (A)


And here is Marquette:

Marquette (16-11 (7-8))
Average Metric: 51
Q1: 4-8
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 6-0
Best 3 wins: Seton Hall (A), Seton Hall (H), Providence (A), Creighton (A)
Worst 3 losses: Georgia (H), Providence (H), Butler (H)

[IrwinFletcher]

Our resume is eerily similar to Texas.  RPI, Q1 and Q2 records, road records, quality wins etc.  Not saying one is better than the other but if Texas is in next four out group, so should we.

Our resume is light years better than Penn State and Georgia as well.

[Its DJOver]

You're way off on this, have you been paying attention at all to the bubble? 

Edit: Also, we definitely want Nebraska to win too, which they'll likely be a slight favorite to do.

+1.  Has a team ever gotten in with an RPI of 85? because if they have our RPI of 57 should be a lock right now.

[GB Warrior]

     http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/   

This seems overly harsh

[BM1090]

     http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/   

This seems overly harsh

Yeah. Dauster doesn't specialize in brackets, so his opinion here isn't too worrisome. Especially when NBC's bracket guy has us in the first four out, prior to last night. And he's really good. I think he's the founder of Bracketville which is historically the most accurate projection.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

     http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/   

This seems overly harsh

He said they need to win 4 or 5 in a row.  They've already won 2.  So he is saying they need to go 2-1 to finish BE play to have a chance - I think we all agree that 8-10 isn't getting it done.