Bubble Watch 2018

[BM1090]

Yah, I guess I am assuming a loss to Creighton in the 9-9 scenario.  But it definitely could come elsewhere.  If MU and Creighton end up tied at 9-9 (and 1-1 H2H), I guess it depends who the 3 seed ends up being for the tie breaker.  Unless Hall falls in at 9-9 as well, MU wins that mini-conference, which is another attainable result.

Probably the wrong thread for this, but I'll have a lot better feel on our bubble status in about 7 hours. If win win tonight I really think we will be 9-8 at this time next week.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Probably the wrong thread for this, but I'll have a lot better feel on our bubble status in about 7 hours. If win win tonight I really think we will be 9-8 at this time next week.

Yep. Though @ Gtown definitely worries.  Don't get me wrong, tonight does as well, but I actually think we play really well tonight. Just a feeling.

[MUBigDance]

Good post. And I know I'm going to care about this if we're 9-9 and lose to DePaul in the BET.

But I realize I root for who I root for over MUs fractional benefit of this game or that. I always root for Buzz to win (haters please pause). I always root against Florida in every sport all the time. Ohio State the same (though not a bubbler). I'm a TAMU fan this year also. MU trumps all but that extends to them succeeding in the significant digits. Finish strong and win a BET game or two...that's what I say.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Put me in the "I don't understand the bubble this year" column. I know I have been very confident and annoying about the bubble this year. But I'm starting to think that I'm missing something.

Lunardi knows his stuff. Him not putting us in the first 8 out is troubling to me. But I look at who is there and don't understand why we were left out. Look at Penn State. They have a lower RPI, lower SOS,  less Q1 wins, less Q2 wins, and more Q3/4 losses. I can't figure out why their resume is better.

[Galway Eagle]

Put me in the "I don't understand the bubble this year" column. I know I have been very confident and annoying about the bubble this year. But I'm starting to think that I'm missing something.

Lunardi knows his stuff. Him not putting us in the first 8 out is troubling to me. But I look at who is there and don't understand why we were left out. Look at Penn State. They have a lower RPI, lower SOS,  less Q1 wins, less Q2 wins, and more Q3/4 losses. I can't figure out why their resume is better.

Tweet him? He's known to respond

[barfolomew]

Tweet him? He's known to respond

And if he doesn't respond, we'll get Benny to drop a FOIA request on his a$$.
THE PEOPLE HAVE A RIGHT TO KNOW

[copious1218]

Put me in the "I don't understand the bubble this year" column. I know I have been very confident and annoying about the bubble this year. But I'm starting to think that I'm missing something.

Lunardi knows his stuff. Him not putting us in the first 8 out is troubling to me. But I look at who is there and don't understand why we were left out. Look at Penn State. They have a lower RPI, lower SOS,  less Q1 wins, less Q2 wins, and more Q3/4 losses. I can't figure out why their resume is better.

If you look at previous brackets, the brackets change, but the last 4 byes, last 4 in, first 4 out, and next 4 out never change.  So I don't know if: 1) there is a glitch in the system, or 2) if he updated the bracket but not those 16 teams, or 3) if those are the current 16 teams but you cannot see what those 16 teams were when he released previous brackets. 

[SaveOD238]

Put me in the "I don't understand the bubble this year" column. I know I have been very confident and annoying about the bubble this year. But I'm starting to think that I'm missing something.

Lunardi knows his stuff. Him not putting us in the first 8 out is troubling to me. But I look at who is there and don't understand why we were left out. Look at Penn State. They have a lower RPI, lower SOS,  less Q1 wins, less Q2 wins, and more Q3/4 losses. I can't figure out why their resume is better.

Penn State is 19-10, 9-7 and didn't have a four game losing streak earlier this month.  The quick glance optics of that are better than 16-11, 6-8, even though PSU plays in a weaker conference, etc.

But I'm not that worried about what Lunardi says.  Look at the aggregate on BracketMatrix instead.  8 brackets have Penn State in and 7 have Marquette.  That seems reasonable given our current resumes. 

Just root for Penn St to lose tonight, as that takes away a chance for a big win, and pushes them down the Big10 standings.

[SaveOD238]

Tonight 2/21

Georgia @ South Carolina. Georgia helps our RPI but is squarely on the bubble. Root for whoever you want

Seton Hall @ Providence. We want SHU to stay as two Q1 wins instead of just 1. PC losing gets it closer to the cutline

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is fringe bubble

North Carolina @ Syracuse

Clemson @ Virginia Tech

Michigan @ Penn State

TCU @ Iowa State. TCU is safe for now but a few losses and who knows. We're probably big ISU fans from this point out

Louisville @ Duke

Florida @ Tennesssee Florida is pretty safe for now

Alabama @ Auburn

Loyola Chicago @ Southern Illinois. I think Loyola is out without the auto bid but one more loss would kill their hopes

Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure

Texas @ Kansas State. Not sure what is better for us. Both right on the fringe right now

Boise State @ Colorado State

USC @ Colorado

Pretty crazy slate for a Wednesday night. Sorry if I missed any

Sorry for the big quote, but I wish I could get this data in a more digestible way.  When I check scores I have to keep flipping back and forth to these lists to see if I should care.  Wouldn't it be nice if when I checked scores on ESPN or elsewhere I could view a page of "Bubble Teams" scores, like I see Top 25 scores?

Someone with more technological savvy than me should be able to make a page like this...

[wisblue]

The last 8 in and first 8 out have been changing in Lunardi's brackets, but they didn't change between his bracket from last Friday and his one on Monday, even though there seemed to be some significant results over the weekend. It just looks like a mistake, or he just tinkered with the trams in the bracket but not the ones on the bubble. He should have a new one out tomorrow or Friday.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The last 8 in and first 8 out have been changing in Lunardi's brackets, but they didn't change between his bracket from last Friday and his one on Monday, even though there seemed to be some significant results over the weekend. It just looks like a mistake, or he just tinkered with the trams in the bracket but not the ones on the bubble. He should have a new one out tomorrow or Friday.

For whatever reason, Lunardi's last four in, first four out, next four out always remain what his current bracket says even if you look at previous versions. It's been like that for years. Crazy it's never been fixed.

Put me in the "I don't understand the bubble this year" column. I know I have been very confident and annoying about the bubble this year. But I'm starting to think that I'm missing something.

Lunardi knows his stuff. Him not putting us in the first 8 out is troubling to me. But I look at who is there and don't understand why we were left out. Look at Penn State. They have a lower RPI, lower SOS,  less Q1 wins, less Q2 wins, and more Q3/4 losses. I can't figure out why their resume is better.

It is strange. I don't really get it. Penn State is just 1 example. MU plays incredibly well resume wise with most of the bubble even though a lot of pundits haven't given them much love all season.

A couple more wins should do the trick.

[IrwinFletcher]

Yep. Though @ Gtown definitely worries.  Don't get me wrong, tonight does as well, but I actually think we play really well tonight. Just a feeling.

Keep in mind, we play Gtown on Monday.  Road game Saturday in Chicago then a road game in DC.  Tough schedule there with 3 games, 2 on the road, over 5 days.

[auburnmarquette]

Good post. And I know I'm going to care about this if we're 9-9 and lose to DePaul in the BET.

But I realize I root for who I root for over MUs fractional benefit of this game or that. I always root for Buzz to win (haters please pause). I always root against Florida in every sport all the time. Ohio State the same (though not a bubbler). I'm a TAMU fan this year also. MU trumps all but that extends to them succeeding in the significant digits. Finish strong and win a BET game or two...that's what I say.

I am actually going to Auburn at Florida Saturday, so I will help cheer against the Gators for you, then I'm at Georgetown Monday and in Milwaukee for the Creighton finale, at the whole Big East in the media section, and then fly to Ohio for business Monday-tuesday and if we make first four I will be there and follow the team if we are still playing. Man, I'm glad my birthday always falls in March Madness and my wife gives me this month as my one sports binge as long as Marquette keeps playing and a nice bonus for Auburn to look so good this year too to give me a couple of 2 mile drives to games.

[GoldenZebra]

GTown keepin it close with X....not good. They are gonna be hot by the time we play them.

[BM1090]

GTown keepin it close with X....not good. They are gonna be hot by the time we play them.

Or worn down

[Floorslapper]

Wow..Providence catches a break.  Game suspended with 13 minutes left.  Seton Hall ahead by 9 and looking pretty good.  Game won't be finished tonight.  To be concluded at another date.

[GGGG]

Wow..Providence catches a break.  Game suspended with 13 minutes left.  Seton Hall ahead by 9 and looking pretty good.  Game won't be finished tonight.  To be concluded at another date.

Same thing that happened v. Marquette with floor condensation? 

[Floorslapper]

Same thing that happened v. Marquette with floor condensation?

Yes.  Apparently unseasonably warm/record temperatures and caused ice below to cause condensation to form on playing surface.  And Desi Rodriguez got hurt in 1st half...rolled his ankle really badly and was unable to return.  They resumed play, and two more players fell without any contact and they decided to call game. 

[GGGG]

PC should have to forfeit if that happens again.

[BM1090]

Georgia lost to SC probably the better result

[BM1090]

VT wins. St Bonaventure escapes.

Penn State and Syracuse lose. Good results so far

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

PC should have to forfeit if that happens again.

It was 70 degrees in the northeast after being fairly winter like days before.   I don't know that they can help it. 

[BM1090]

It was 70 degrees in the northeast after being fairly winter like days before.   I don't know that they can help it.

Marquette played with ice under the floors for years. We had unseasonably warm days. So do other cities. I don't recall it happening much elsewhere.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Marquette played with ice under the floors for years. We had unseasonably warm days. So do other cities. I don't recall it happening much elsewhere.

Sorry.  My point was more that the arena is setup a certain way and has issues with drastic temp fluctuation.  It is not Prov fault.  No more than if it happened at the BC for MU.  On the comparability of arenas and temp changes I can't comment. 

[BM1090]

Sorry.  My point was more that the arena is setup a certain way and has issues with drastic temp fluctuation.  It is not Prov fault.  No more than if it happened at the BC for MU.  On the comparability of arenas and temp changes I can't comment.

Yeah I'm sure PC does all they can. But it also can't continue to happen