Bubble Watch 2018

[Loose Cannon]

  Now I know why they are called Brackets.  They are all Bent.

[jsglow]

Nevada, Texas Tech, Auburn, Virginia....boy do I not hate that road

Umm, how 'bout we focus on DePaul?   

[LoudMouth]

Umm, how 'bout we focus on DePaul?   

Very good idea. I just needed a pick-me-up after reading ESPN's bubble watch article

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/

Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone

If I'm reading this correctly, he says were the top team not in the first 8 out. He also says that winning out should make us a virtual lock and 2-1 will put us "right there" if we don't lose to one of the bottom teams in MSG.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/

Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone

Some good info in here. Lunardi basically says they should have a very good chance of getting in at 9-9 and will be in at 10-8. Still strange he hasn't moved then into his first 8 out, but he did say they're the first team after the first 8 out. So MU is certainly on his radar.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Ya the Athletic and ESPN bubble watch commentaries are crazy. Just keep winning I suppose.

[jsglow]

https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/

Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone

If I'm reading this correctly, he says were the top team not in the first 8 out. He also says that winning out should make us a virtual lock and 2-1 will put us "right there" if we don't lose to one of the bottom teams in MSG.

Seems to be what he said.  And I'm glad Wire reached out.

[Galway Eagle]

https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/

Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone

If I'm reading this correctly, he says were the top team not in the first 8 out. He also says that winning out should make us a virtual lock and 2-1 will put us "right there" if we don't lose to one of the bottom teams in MSG.

I wish he'd have explained why certain teams are ahead of us.

[drewm88]

Does this work by the Marquette Wire qualify them for the American Heroes thread?

[MarquetteDano]

https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/

Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone

If I'm reading this correctly, he says were the top team not in the first 8 out. He also says that winning out should make us a virtual lock and 2-1 will put us "right there" if we don't lose to one of the bottom teams in MSG.

Great stuff thanks.  Just need to find a way to 2-1 in the next three.  Go 3-0 and we are in baby.

[PGsHeroes32]

https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/

Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone

If I'm reading this correctly, he says were the top team not in the first 8 out. He also says that winning out should make us a virtual lock and 2-1 will put us "right there" if we don't lose to one of the bottom teams in MSG.

Yeah his current bracket doesn't make a lot of sense but it's nice to see that he seems to agree with all of us about what we need when it's all said and done

[cheese ball chaser]

This may have been posted earlier in the thread, I haven't read through all pages. But I pulled together the remaining Big East schedule as well as the win percentages and projected conference records from T-Rank. The green means the team is heavily favored (>=60% chance of winning). Yellow is a toss up, which I arbitrarily defined as being from 40-60% chance of winning. And red is obviously <=40% chance of winning. (All of this is straight from T-rank).

   

Some of my thoughts:

• Butler: I think Butler is going to be 11-7, I think they're going to win both remaining games
• Seton Hall has a very difficult remaining schedule. Very possible they lose their next three or go 1-2. They were 0-4 before beating DePaul and Providence. I think 9-9 sounds about right for them.
• Creighton: I really think we win our last game against them. Assuming they lose to Nova that would put them at 9-9
• Providence: They could go 0-3 or 3-0 and it wouldn't surprise me. If I were to guess though I would peg them at 10-8
• Marquette: I like our chances of going 10-8. Have to take it one game at a time and TCOB @ DePaul.

A ton of "toss up" games tomorrow - will be very interesting to see what happens.

[denverMU]

This may have been posted earlier in the thread, I haven't read through all pages. But I pulled together the remaining Big East schedule as well as the win percentages and projected conference records from T-Rank. The green means the team is heavily favored (>=60% chance of winning). Yellow is a toss up, which I arbitrarily defined as being from 40-60% chance of winning. And red is obviously <=40% chance of winning. (All of this is straight from T-rank).

   

Some of my thoughts:

• Butler: I think Butler is going to be 11-7, I think they're going to win both remaining games
• Seton Hall has a very difficult remaining schedule. Very possible they lose their next three or go 1-2. They were 0-4 before beating DePaul and Providence. I think 9-9 sounds about right for them.
• Creighton: I really think we win our last game against them. Assuming they lose to Nova that would put them at 9-9
• Providence: They could go 0-3 or 3-0 and it wouldn't surprise me. If I were to guess though I would peg them at 10-8
• Marquette: I like our chances of going 10-8. Have to take it one game at a time and TCOB @ DePaul.

A ton of "toss up" games tomorrow - will be very interesting to see what happens.

Thanks for the chart but I have a couple questions.  If I read it right, it picks Villanova to win all 3 games yet predicts a 14-4 finish? CR to win 1 game yet projects 10-8?  It doesn't seem to equate.

[brewcity77]

Thanks for the chart but I have a couple questions.  If I read it right, it picks Villanova to win all 3 games yet predicts a 14-4 finish? CR to win 1 game yet projects 10-8?  It doesn't seem to equate.

It's because projections are based on aggregate percentages. So Villanova is 71+70+95=236. That means they are expected to win 2.36 games, which rounds to 2-1. Creighton's aggregate is 152, so rounded up goes to 2-1 as well. That's why the projections are always an inexact science, and even teams that are favored in every game early in the season are still projected to have multiple losses.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This guy has been consistently better then Lunardi......not updated since the 19th....MU in first 4 out at that time.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Updated today. Looks like we are the first team out. Baylor, Texas, LSU, Washington right in front of us. Syracuse, USC, Utah right behind us.

[wadesworld]

Pop

[wisblue]

If MU had moved to near the bubble line, they came crashing down today.

Weeks ago I had thought MU needed to go 10-8 in conference to get a bid, and then thought based on closer review and the comments here that 9-9 might be good enough. But as the end of the season has approached, and several bubble teams have improved their resumes while MU has faded, I think 9-9 is less than a 50-50 proposition. MU's best wins have lost some of their lustre as SH, Creighton and Providence have faded, and now throwing a terrible loss on the pile makes MU's resume look pretty light.

Regardless, I won't have the enthusiasm to compare resumes unless and until MU wins on Monday, which is looking pretty doubtful. Today's clunker was pretty much a spirit crusher.

[i71_dawg]

Mods, can we lock 🔒 down this post now...the bubble officially burst against a 10-17 team that shot 37% from the floor and still won easily.

.

[BM1090]

Mods, can we lock 🔒 down this post now...the bubble officially burst against a 10-17 team that shot 37% from the floor and still won easily.

.

Not yet. But probably in 2 days.

[jutaw22mu]

Pop

+1

[WarriorPride68]

MU listed as one of the last four byes (6 teams between MU and the cutline; 2 between MU and the First Four) in Lunardi's update this morning.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[BM1090]

Lots of bubble teams continue to lose. Shame we lost today. Bracket matrix has us up to 2nd team out. Win likely would have pushed us in.

9-9 still probably gets us to Dayton. Cheer for Nova to finish off Creighton.

[wisblue]

Lots of bubble teams continue to lose. Shame we lost today. Bracket matrix has us up to 2nd team out. Win likely would have pushed us in.

9-9 still probably gets us to Dayton. Cheer for Nova to finish off Creighton.

Some bubble teams that were probably ahead of MU in the first place have picked up resume helping wins while MU took that giant step backward with little chance of making it up in the next 3 games. I'm less confident than you are that going 9-9 and winning the opener in the BET will be good enough, even for a play in game. All we can do now is hope to find out. Not looking good.

[SaveOD238]

I think it's probably too late at this point, but here's the results for bubble teams this weekend.

Providence still has to play Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns.  Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor.  Go Sooners/Frogs!
NC State still has to play Florida State, @Georgia Tech, and Louisville.  Go Noles/Jackets!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va.  Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC.  Go Buffs/Trojans!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU.  Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState.  Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson.  Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State.  Go Hokies/Cavs!
Washington has to play @Stanford, @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon.  Go Cardinal/Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA.  Go Buffs (again)!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU.  Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt.  Go Cocks (again)!
Penn State just has @Nebraska.
Nebraska just has Penn St
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado.  Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn.  Go Aggies/Vols!

[BM1090]

If we lose tonight this will be my last bubble post, but for we are still in the discussion. Bracketville, historically the most accurate projection, has us as the 5th team out

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Only real bubble game tonight is Texas @ Kansas