Bubble Watch 2018

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

     http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/   

This seems overly harsh

He was also generally pretty negative about every team other than Va Tech (who I agree is now probably off the bubble).  A good handful of those teams he listed are going to get in, but he was fairly doom and gloom on all them.

[Floorslapper]

You're way off on this, have you been paying attention at all to the bubble? 

Edit: Also, we definitely want Nebraska to win too, which they'll likely be a slight favorite to do.

Guess we'll see.  Admittedly I have not been following the bubble that closely.  I do value Pomeroy rankings ahead of every other metric.  So, definite bias.  Suspect Penn State will be in.

[BM1090]

Guess we'll see.  Admittedly I have not been following the bubble that closely.  I do value Pomeroy rankings ahead of every other metric.  So, definite bias.  Suspect Penn State will be in.

As you should. But the committee doesn't necessarily do the same.

[LAZER]

Guess we'll see.  Admittedly I have not been following the bubble that closely.  I do value Pomeroy rankings ahead of every other metric.  So, definite bias.  Suspect Penn State will be in.

Don't get me wrong, PSU can still get in.  But to concede them as a lock right now is absurd, considering no bracket experts have them in right now. While you might value Pomeroy, it is somewhat irrelevant to predicting the field/seeds.

[BM1090]

Barring a crazy comeback, SHU beats PC on the road. Definitely the better result for us. Solidifies the two Q1 wins we have and drops PC back towards the cutline.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Barring a crazy comeback, SHU beats PC on the road. Definitely the better result for us. Solidifies the two Q1 wins we have and drops PC back towards the cutline.

I think PC is pretty safe. Wins over Nova and X will get them in with room to spare at 9-9. That would require PC to go 1-2 against @Gtown, @X, vs. SJU, which won't necessarily be easy.  I think they would have a chance at Dayton at 8-10, but would depend on how things shake out around the bubble.  Its inevitable that a handful of sub .500 B12, SEC, BE and/or ACC teams are going to get in.

[forgetful]

Guess we'll see.  Admittedly I have not been following the bubble that closely.  I do value Pomeroy rankings ahead of every other metric.  So, definite bias.  Suspect Penn State will be in.

If Penn State is in, then we are a stone cold lock, even if we lose 2 or 3 more.  The committee has made it clear that they value SOS and Q1 wins as very important.  Penn State's SOS is not strong.  They only have 2 Q1 wins.  They have 2 bad losses (Q3), and their RPI is in the 80's with little chance of improving dramatically.

They would need a win @ Nebraska, and a very deep B10 tourney run to have a chance. 

[GGGG]

Bracket Matrix had both MU and PSU as "Next Four Out" as of yesterday.

[LAZER]

I think PC is pretty safe. Wins over Nova and X will get them in with room to spare at 9-9. That would require PC to go 1-2 against @Gtown, @X, vs. SJU, which won't necessarily be easy.  I think they would have a chance at Dayton at 8-10, but would depend on how things shake out around the bubble.  Its inevitable that a handful of sub .500 B12, SEC, BE and/or ACC teams are going to get in.

They also have losses to Minnesota, UMass, and DePaul. 1-2 in their last 3 would be serious danger for them.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

They also have losses to Minnesota, UMass, and DePaul. 1-2 in their last 3 would be serious danger for them.

Agreed...I just said that.  A chance for Dayton but needing help to get there would certainly be "danger" IMO. 

[LAZER]

Agreed...I just said that.  A chance for Dayton but needing help to get there would certainly be "danger" IMO.

Well 1-2 puts them at 9-9, I don't think they're safe there. If they lose all 3 and go 8-10 I think they're out for sure.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Well 1-2 puts them at 9-9, I don't think they're safe there. If they lose all 3 and go 8-10 I think they're out for sure.

Ahh...yes, you're correct.  Just a brainfart.  I think they're in at 9-9 with X and Nova wins, but yah, the bad losses don't help.

[muguru]

I mean seriously though....Lunardi's Feb 5 bracket had MU as the first team out.  Since then they've gone 3-1 with two huge road wins over Seton Hall and Creighton, and a split with red hot St. Johns.  It makes no sense.

I'll tweet at him and ask him what's up...

[SaveOD238]

We're going to keep winning, but we need the bubble teams to falter.

So let's wish the worst on our bubble competition:

Providence still has to play @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns.  Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor.  Go Sooners/Frogs!
NC State still has to play Florida State, @Georgia Tech, and Louisville.  Go Noles/Jackets!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va.  Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC.  Go Buffs/Trojans!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU.  Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState.  Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson.  Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State.  Go Hokies/Cavs!
Washington has to play @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon.  Go Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA.  Go Buffs (again)!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU.  Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt.  Go Cocks (again)!
Penn State just has @Nebraska.
Nebraska just has Penn St
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado.  Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn.  Go Aggies/Vols!

In summary, we really like TCU, Oklahoma, Colorado, and South Carolina down the stretch.  PAC 12 chaos is also probably a good thing.

[BM1090]

We're going to keep winning, but we need the bubble teams to falter.

So let's wish the worst on our bubble competition:

Providence still has to play @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns.  Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor.  Go Sooners/Frogs!
NC State still has to play Florida State, @Georgia Tech, and Louisville.  Go Noles/Jackets!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va.  Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC.  Go Buffs/Trojans!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU.  Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState.  Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson.  Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State.  Go Hokies/Cavs!
Washington has to play @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon.  Go Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA.  Go Buffs (again)!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU.  Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt.  Go Cocks (again)!
Penn State just has @Nebraska.
Nebraska just has Penn St
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado.  Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn.  Go Aggies/Vols!

In summary, we really like TCU, Oklahoma, Colorado, and South Carolina down the stretch.  PAC 12 chaos is also probably a good thing.

Thanks for doing this. One quick correction, USC beat Colorado last night.

[BM1090]

He said they need to win 4 or 5 in a row.  They've already won 2.  So he is saying they need to go 2-1 to finish BE play to have a chance - I think we all agree that 8-10 isn't getting it done.

I asked him on Twitter and he said 4 more wins in a row, or 5 if we win out and get the 7 seed which I don't even know if that's possible. I think he's way off on this one.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I asked him on Twitter and he said 4 more wins in a row, or 5 if we win out and get the 7 seed which I don't even know if that's possible. I think he's way off on this one.

Agreed.

I'll tweet at him and ask him what's up...

Cool, please share if he responds.

[PGsHeroes32]

I asked him on Twitter and he said 4 more wins in a row, or 5 if we win out and get the 7 seed which I don't even know if that's possible. I think he's way off on this one.

What does he even mean lol

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

On February 5th, Joey Brackets had us as first team out and Georgia nowhere to be seen.

Since then this is what the teams have done:

Marquette:
3-1
Wins: @Seton Hall (RPI 27), @Creighton (39), St. John's (75)
Losses: St. John's (75)

Georgia:
2-3
Wins: @Florida (64), Tennessee (11)
Losses: @Vanderbilt (111), Auburn (7), @South Carolina (73)

I would argue that a road win at 27 RPI Seton Hall is comparable to a home win against 11 RPI Tennessee. A road win against Creighton is significantly better than a road win against Florida. A road loss to Saint John's is basically the same as a road loss to South Carolina. And a win over St. John's is much much better than a home loss to Auburn and a road loss to Vandy.

Yet since then, Marquette has fallen out of "First 8 Out" and Georgia has risen into it.

[goldeneagle91114]

how does Joey construct his bracket?
A - He tries to forecast how teams will finish the season and put together a bracket that most closely resembles how he thinks the committee will select teams

Or

B - Its real time. If the season ends today, this is who he thinks would be in and out?

I wonder if part of not mentioning Marquette is that be thinks we will slip up over the next 3 games.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

how does Joey construct his bracket?
A - He tries to forecast how teams will finish the season and put together a bracket that most closely resembles how he thinks the committee will select teams

Or

B - Its real time. If the season ends today, this is who he thinks would be in and out?

I wonder if part of not mentioning Marquette is that be thinks we will slip up over the next 3 games.

B

On February 5th, Joey Brackets had us as first team out and Georgia nowhere to be seen.

Since then this is what the teams have done:

Marquette:
3-1
Wins: @Seton Hall (RPI 27), @Creighton (39), St. John's (75)
Losses: St. John's (75)

Georgia:
2-3
Wins: @Florida (64), Tennessee (11)
Losses: @Vanderbilt (111), Auburn (7), @South Carolina (73)

I would argue that a road win at 27 RPI Seton Hall is comparable to a home win against 11 RPI Tennessee. A road win against Creighton is significantly better than a road win against Florida. A road loss to Saint John's is basically the same as a road loss to South Carolina. And a win over St. John's is much much better than a home loss to Auburn and a road loss to Vandy.

Yet since then, Marquette has fallen out of "First 8 Out" and Georgia has risen into it.

Georgia is one head scratcher, but when you look at the resumes of each of the 8 teams on his first four and next four out list, there are only a couple that are comparable or better than MUs.  Its strange. 

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55457.msg993787#msg993787

[Its DJOver]

Joe is definitely having some ESPN bias in his bracket.  I also think that he takes his previous bracket and just slides team up or down a couple spots based on their W/L for that week (It seems like there is somewhat of a delay because we only dropped slightly during our 4 game losing streak, and we've only risen slight during the 3-1 stretch that followed) .  If he were to make a new bracket from scratch and look at the advanced numbers for all the bubble teams, we would be a lot closer than he has us.

[MuMark]

This guy has been consistently better then Lunardi......not updated since the 19th....MU in first 4 out at that time.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

[Windyplayer]

Joe is definitely having some ESPN bias in his bracket.  I also think that he takes his previous bracket and just slides team up or down a couple spots based on their W/L for that week (It seems like there is somewhat of a delay because we only dropped slightly during our 4 game losing streak, and we've only risen slight during the 3-1 stretch that followed) .  If he were to make a new bracket from scratch and look at the advanced numbers for all the bubble teams, we would be a lot closer than he has us.

Oh, you mean his full-time job?

[Its DJOver]

Oh, you mean his full-time job?

Only explanation I can come up with.  There are multiple teams ahead of us in his eyes that have worse RPI, SOS, fewer Q1/Q2 wins and more Q3/Q4 loses.  What else could it be?