Bubble Watch 2018

[Nukem2]

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[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I THINK what he is implying is that the rest of the season is the NCAA tournament for MU, win and they are in, essentially that they control their own destiny, to make it or not from here on out.

That’s not really what he said.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Bottom of the bubble is really strengthening itself. The middle is historically week though. Really not much difference between teams 29-50.

Yah Saturday was pretty wild with most bubble teams winning, but I doubt that continues. Many bubble teams have legit gauntlets left on their schedules.

A&M is going to be interesting as well. 17-11 (6-9) and ravaged with injuries. Still travel to Georgia and play Alabama. I don’t think a 7-11 SEC team is getting in and 8-10 is going to be tight.

[BM1090]

Yah Saturday was pretty wild with most bubble teams winning, but I doubt that continues. Many bubble teams have legit gauntlets left on their schedules.

A&M is going to be interesting as well. 17-11 (6-9) and ravaged with injuries. Still travel to Georgia and play Alabama. I don’t think a 7-11 SEC team is getting in and 8-10 is going to be tight.

Well, they were projected as the top 6 seed before today. So it seems they have some wiggle room.

[brewcity77]

I don't think they had a shot at an at-large anyway, but East Tennessee State lost to The Citadel tonight. Absolutely terrible home loss. ETSU was #77 in Pomeroy playing at home against #321 The Citadel. Pomeroy had ETSU as a 23-point favorite and they lost outright 84-82.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Well, they were projected as the top 6 seed before today. So it seems they have some wiggle room.

Seems crazy to me.

[forgetful]

Seems crazy to me.

The SEC is going to have some scratching their heads this year.  A&M and Florida have been safely in around the 6-seed range.  Florida has an RPI of 65 right now. 

They are being considered safely in, because of the high RPI's of SEC teams, that frankly aren't very good.  That gives a bunch of the teams ridiculous looking Q1 wins. 

LSU for example is 7-5 against Q1.  That is comparable to Xavier (7-4).  Florida and A&M have similar large Q1 victories.  Since the committee has made it clear that Q1 victories will be a priority, you have some SEC teams that frankly should be on the bubble, or off the bad side of the bubble, that are considered safely in.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The SEC is going to have some scratching their heads this year.  A&M and Florida have been safely in around the 6-seed range.  Florida has an RPI of 65 right now. 

They are being considered safely in, because of the high RPI's of SEC teams, that frankly aren't very good.  That gives a bunch of the teams ridiculous looking Q1 wins. 

LSU for example is 7-5 against Q1.  That is comparable to Xavier (7-4).  Florida and A&M have similar large Q1 victories.  Since the committee has made it clear that Q1 victories will be a priority, you have some SEC teams that frankly should be on the bubble, or off the bad side of the bubble, that are considered safely in.

Yep. I guess I’ll believe it when I see it with SEC getting 8+ bids.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Nebraska and LSU both win games they were supposed to win.

Kentucky beats down Arkansas on the road.

Ole Miss forces OT against Mizzou.

[BM1090]

Yeah. Bubble teams won tonight but no big wins. Just largely won the ones theybwere supposed to. Hope MU follows suit

[UNC Eagle]

I THINK what he is implying is that the rest of the season is the NCAA tournament for MU, win and they are in, essentially that they control their own destiny, to make it or not from here on out.

Yes that is what I am saying. In the tournament you lose and your out. That is what I feel the case is for MU. So effectively MU is in the tournament right now, just keep winning. Don't think it requires winning BET, but definitely at least the first game, which would be another quality win.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yes that is what I am saying. In the tournament you lose and your out. That is what I feel the case is for MU. So effectively MU is in the tournament right now, just keep winning. Don't think it requires winning BET, but definitely at least the first game, which would be another quality win.

Care to provide any information to backup that take? If MU rattles off 6 straight wins and loses in BET semis, they’ll be a no worse than a 9 seed. Probably a 7 or 8.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Mizzou takes a pretty awful home loss to a bad Ole Miss team.

[Windyplayer]

Yes that is what I am saying. In the tournament you lose and your out. That is what I feel the case is for MU. So effectively MU is in the tournament right now, just keep winning. Don't think it requires winning BET, but definitely at least the first game, which would be another quality win.

Hmm. Hmm. Hmm. I don’t get...hmm.

[BM1090]

Mizzou takes a pretty awful home loss to a bad Ole Miss team.

Yeah. Probably not close to the bubble but that probably drops them into the mess of teams on the 8/9 line. Not a bad result for us

[UNC Eagle]

Care to provide any information to backup that take? If MU rattles off 6 straight wins and loses in BET semis, they’ll be a no worse than a 9 seed. Probably a 7 or 8.

That is exactly what I am saying. Win all the rest regular season. Then Win First Big East and we are definitely in the actual tournament.  All the metrics will be met then. So for practical purposes we have to perform like we would in the actual tournament , which is keep winning from here on out. Not sure why you have a difficult time understanding this concept.

[BM1090]

That is exactly what I am saying. Win all the rest regular season. Then Win First Big East and we are definitely in the actual tournament.  All the metrics will be met then. So for practical purposes we have to perform like we would in the actual tournament , which is keep winning from here on out. Not sure why you have a difficult time understanding this concept.

Because all the math shows if we finish 3-1 and lose in the first round in the BET (so 3-2) we are likely in, although it would be close.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

That is exactly what I am saying. Win all the rest regular season. Then Win First Big East and we are definitely in the actual tournament.  All the metrics will be met then. So for practical purposes we have to perform like we would in the actual tournament , which is keep winning from here on out. Not sure why you have a difficult time understanding this concept.

Ha, I don’t think I am the one having a difficult time understanding things.

[UNC Eagle]

Because all the math shows if we finish 3-1 and lose in the first round in the BET (so 3-2) we are likely in, although it would be close.

There are 8 teams ahead of us according to the Feb 19th Lunardi. We have to leapfrog ahead of all of those.  Then factor in the inevitable conference tournament upsets, and that makes the number even higher. So to best insure getting in we need the best resume that is unassailable. Win out regular and get one more quality win in the Big East tournament. Also in years past the committee has looked at key injuries etc. We show we can win without Markus and there is some soft value there too.

[brewcity77]

Also in years past the committee has looked at key injuries etc. We show we can win without Markus and there is some soft value there too.

I think they look at that under the assumption that a returning player would make your team better based on results. If we win without Markus and were only so-so with him, wouldn't that sooner indicate that a returning Markus would hurt our chances rather than help them?

Had Markus been out from January 12th to February 10th when we lost 6/8, you might be on to something, but I don't think we'll get a boost from losing a player and winning more without them.

[WarriorInNYC]

There are 8 teams ahead of us according to the Feb 19th Lunardi. We have to leapfrog ahead of all of those.  Then factor in the inevitable conference tournament upsets, and that makes the number even higher. So to best insure getting in we need the best resume that is unassailable. Win out regular and get one more quality win in the Big East tournament. Also in years past the committee has looked at key injuries etc. We show we can win without Markus and there is some soft value there too.

I'm not quite certain we need to worry about conference tournament upsets all that much.  The way I look at it, below are the other conferences where there is the potential for bid stealers:

• American - I don't think we're in too much worry here as I think I don't imagine Wichita State or Cincinnati not taking this, and Houston could have a shot as well and they are close to solidifying their at-large spot.  Temple would be the one to worry about here as they could possibly make a tourney run.
• A10 - Another spot maybe could be stolen here, but Rhode Island has just demolished this conference during regular season play.  St. Bonnie's could maybe take themselves from possible bubble status to auto-bid.  This would be one to watch IMO
• CUSA - Mid Tennessee and Western Kentucky are both projected as bubble teams right now if they weren't to get an at-large.  Perhaps a loss during their conf tournament would take them off it as outside of Old Dominion and Marshall, that conference is littered with bad teams.
• Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago could perhaps receive an at-large bid.  But I think they would need to win out to get one.  Therefore, a loss in their conf tournament and I don't think they get an ar-large.
• Mountain West - this is the one to watch IMO.  Nevada has an at-large and Boise State keeps flirting with a last-4 spot.  But there are some teams talented enough that won't receive at-larges that could knock off either Nevada or Boise.
• Summit - South Dakota State - again falls into the category of could receive an at-large if they win out, so a loss in the conf tourney would take that away.
• WCC - don't see how either Gonzaga or St. Mary's don't win this one.  Maybe BYU could knock one of them off, but don't see them beating both.

So in summary, A10 and Mountain West are the only conference tournaments I am potentially worried about a bid stealer.  I didn't list any Power 6 conferences, but I don't think we could realistically see any there.  Perhaps the PAC 12, one of the bubble teams makes a run and removes that bubble status.

[Herman Cain]

I'm not quite certain we need to worry about conference tournament upsets all that much.  The way I look at it, below are the other conferences where there is the potential for bid stealers:

• American - I don't think we're in too much worry here as I think I don't imagine Wichita State or Cincinnati not taking this, and Houston could have a shot as well and they are close to solidifying their at-large spot.  Temple would be the one to worry about here as they could possibly make a tourney run.
• A10 - Another spot maybe could be stolen here, but Rhode Island has just demolished this conference during regular season play.  St. Bonnie's could maybe take themselves from possible bubble status to auto-bid.  This would be one to watch IMO
• CUSA - Mid Tennessee and Western Kentucky are both projected as bubble teams right now if they weren't to get an at-large.  Perhaps a loss during their conf tournament would take them off it as outside of Old Dominion and Marshall, that conference is littered with bad teams.
• Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago could perhaps receive an at-large bid.  But I think they would need to win out to get one.  Therefore, a loss in their conf tournament and I don't think they get an ar-large.
• Mountain West - this is the one to watch IMO.  Nevada has an at-large and Boise State keeps flirting with a last-4 spot.  But there are some teams talented enough that won't receive at-larges that could knock off either Nevada or Boise.
• Summit - South Dakota State - again falls into the category of could receive an at-large if they win out, so a loss in the conf tourney would take that away.
• WCC - don't see how either Gonzaga or St. Mary's don't win this one.  Maybe BYU could knock one of them off, but don't see them beating both.

So in summary, A10 and Mountain West are the only conference tournaments I am potentially worried about a bid stealer.  I didn't list any Power 6 conferences, but I don't think we could realistically see any there.  Perhaps the PAC 12, one of the bubble teams makes a run and removes that bubble status.

What if the Badgers get hot in the Big Ten? They beat Purdue so anything is possible.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

There is always potential for a high major bracketbuster. It doesn't happen often but it can. The only one I can remember recently is Providence 4 or 5 years ago

[WarriorInNYC]

There is always potential for a high major bracketbuster. It doesn't happen often but it can. The only one I can remember recently is Providence 4 or 5 years ago

There was Georgia several years ago as well.

[WarriorInNYC]

What if the Badgers get hot in the Big Ten? They beat Purdue so anything is possible.

Well yeah, its possible.  My post wasn't meant to say anything else wasn't possible.

And sure, Wisconsin could beat Purdue or Ohio State, but I'm not all that particularly worried about Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan all getting knocked off in the BIG 10 tourney.

Its possible a bid stealer could come out of there, but I don't think its very likely.

Hell, by your logic above, we should be worried about St. John's winning the BEast tourney and stealing a bid.