Lunardi just tweeted Marquette as "next four out"

[Mr. Nielsen]

When does the NCAA release their top 16 teams?

Sunday on CBS. 11:30AM

[BM1090]

Sunday on CBS. 11:30AM

Sorry if you've already answered this elsewhere, but when will the Marquette/Creighton game time be announced?

[Floorslapper]

I really don't think there is any proof that the Committee bases its selection decisions on "the entertainment value of the tournament."

True.  Yet they are pretty strategic in their 5/12 pairings, and my gut feels they want the tournament to be as compelling as possible.  But, of course, no "proof."

Nah. Not how it works.

The committee doesn't look at Marquette and say "wow, they are only 3-8 in Tier 1 games." They look and say "wow, Marquette has 3 tier 1 victories." All those 8 losses mean is that we play a really tough schedule. They don't hurt us in the slightest. Don't help us (except in our computer #s), but definitely don't hurt us.

The only team that is better than us in Tier 1/Tier 2 games is Temple with 7 victories. St. Bonaventure and SMU ties us with 5 victories, but we have 3 Tier 1 victories while the two of them only have 2 Tier 1 victories. Western Kentucky only has 4 Tier 1/2 victories. You add in the fact that we are perfect against Tier 3/4 teams and each of them has at least one Tier 3 loss (and their Tier 2 losses are worse than our Tier 2 losses) and Marquette is beating all of them on Tiers.

You also have to keep in mind that there is a high major bias. So St. Bonaventure might get a "Tier 1 win" for winning at Buffalo whose RPI is currently 28. But the committee also knows that Seton Hall is MUCH better than Buffalo. So even though our Seton Hall road victory is only 1 RPI point better than St. Bonaventure's win over Buffalo, the committee will value the Seton Hall win a lot more than the Buffalo win. This is also hurts us because they won't value our win over Vermont as much.

Finally, I think you are right about good wins being more important than avoiding bad losses. However, we are not just talking about some bad losses. All four of the "Next Four Out" have at least FOUR losses to teams ranked 99 OR LOWER IN RPI. This isn't about having one bad loss to make up for. It's about having multiple terrible losses to make up for. Western Kentucky's win over Purdue (12) makes up for their loss to Ohio (227). But their win over SMU (71) doesn't come close to making up for their loss to UT-San Antonio (204).

Personally, I think Temple's resume is better than St. Bonaventure's and could make the tourney if they win most of their remaining games. The others? I don't see it.

Good info.  Thanks for clarifying.  I have not done the research on how the define Tier 1/Tier 2 (what the cutoffs/criteria are). 

[Mr. Nielsen]

Sorry if you've already answered this elsewhere, but when will the Marquette/Creighton game time be announced?

I don't know. If I had to guess after next weekend. The game will be 11am, 1:30pm, 4pm or 7pm.

[brewcity77]

True.  Yet they are pretty strategic in their 5/12 pairings, and my gut feels they want the tournament to be as compelling as possible.  But, of course, no "proof."

I don't think they really are, I just think most of the matchups from the 5/12 to the 8/9 are pretty even matchups. Once you get past those elite teams, there's not a lot separating teams that are at-large worthy, which most teams to 12-seeds are.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don't think they really are, I just think most of the matchups from the 5/12 to the 8/9 are pretty even matchups. Once you get past those elite teams, there's not a lot separating teams that are at-large worthy, which most teams to 12-seeds are.

That, and 12 seeds are often talented and experienced mid majors who probably deserve a higher seed but high major bias keeps that from happening.

[BM1090]

Lunardi dropped us off the bubble completely for now. Still maintain that I think we're in if we finish 4-1, but a 14-11 team who has dropped 5 of 6 won't get much consideration.

We need to get to 4 or 5 wins back above 500 to start being considered.

[Marquette4life]

Lunardi dropped us off the bubble completely for now. Still maintain that I think we're in if we finish 4-1, but a 14-11 team who has dropped 5 of 6 won't get much consideration.

We need to get to 4 or 5 wins back above 500 to start being considered.

This week saturday is a necessity

[GoldenWarrior11]

This week saturday is a necessity

Butler was a big game.  Providence was a big game.  St. Johns was a big game. 

Simply put, we just have not won key games this year.  Looking at the stats, even if we somehow manage to get to .500 in BE play, we still are looking at a sub-50% (I think it's 49%) at making the tournament, due to the current bubble. 

Saturday is a necessity as much as next Wednesday's game against St. Johns (again) will be. 

[BM1090]

Butler was a big game.  Providence was a big game.  St. Johns was a big game. 

Simply put, we just have not won key games this year.  Looking at the stats, even if we somehow manage to get to .500 in BE play, we still are looking at a sub-50% (I think it's 49%) at making the tournament, due to the current bubble. 

Saturday is a necessity as much as next Wednesday's game against St. Johns (again) will be.

Saturday's win has the biggest upside with a win and the smallest downside with a loss. It's not a must win, but if we lose then every other game becomes must win the rest of the year. So it sure would be nice to get.

[Marquette4life]

Saturday's win has the biggest upside with a win and the smallest downside with a loss. It's not a must win, but if we lose then every other game becomes must win the rest of the year. So it sure would be nice to get.

Im telling you if we go 4-1 we need 2 in the BEAST

[BM1090]

Im telling you if we go 4-1 we need 2 in the BEAST

To be an absolute lock? Maybe. To give ourselves a chance, no. T-Rank has us as one of the last teams in at 9-9 with a first round loss to Butler in the BET. We'd be flirting with danger, but I think we'd sneak in

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Im telling you if we go 4-1 we need 2 in the BEAST

I'm telling you you're wrong

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Lunardi dropped us off the bubble completely for now. Still maintain that I think we're in if we finish 4-1, but a 14-11 team who has dropped 5 of 6 won't get much consideration.

We need to get to 4 or 5 wins back above 500 to start being considered.

Yep.  Hard to argue with him at this point. Win Saturday and we'll be back in the first four out or better a week from today in Lunardi's bracket.

Saturday's win has the biggest upside with a win and the smallest downside with a loss. It's not a must win, but if we lose then every other game becomes must win the rest of the year. So it sure would be nice to get.

Yep again. Once we lose 1 more, every game the rest of the regular season is a must win.

Im telling you if we go 4-1 we need 2 in the BEAST

This is a bad take.

[Galway Eagle]

Im telling you if we go 4-1 we need 2 in the BEAST

Is this purely your gut reaction without any actually numbers backing it up?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Is this purely your gut reaction without any actually numbers backing it up?

Clearly just a gut feeling, because there are no numbers or history that back up his assertion.

[Galway Eagle]

Clearly just a gut feeling, because there are no numbers or history that back up his assertion.

Yeah but was hoping to get someone like him to actually admit there's no evidence supporting their claim

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yeah but was hoping to get someone like him to actually admit there's no evidence supporting their claim

I can confirm there is no evidence.  People are frustrated.  People think there is no way this team is going 4-1 (or even 3-2) to finish out BE play.  At this point, I don't blame them.  I prefer to be optimistic because I will enjoy the games more that way, but even the most optimistic guys are starting to realize that the tourney just may not be in the cards this year. 

I don't know if we can go 4-1. That can we debated all we want.  But if we do indeed go 4-1 to close BE play, I am extremely confident that we'll be in the tournament, no matter what happens in the BET.  And I think that at 3-2, we'll actually have a shot if we win a couple games in the BET, and get some help elsewhere, but I wouldn't bet on it.