Lunardi just tweeted Marquette as "next four out"

[tower912]

Marquette still controls it's own destiny. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Marquette still controls it's own destiny.

Technically, every non-Ivy league team that is postseason eligible controls its own destiny at this point.

[wisblue]

Technically, every non-Ivy league team that is postseason eligible controls its own destiny at this point.

Now that they Ivy League has a 4 team conference tournament, and they are relatively early in their conference season, even all of the Ivy teams could make the NCAA by winning out. 😀

[Its DJOver]

Now that they Ivy League has a 4 team conference tournament, and they are relatively early in their conference season, even all of the Ivy teams could make the NCAA by winning out. 😀

Only 2 teams get to end the year with a W, and nobody want to be one of them right now.
I don't count the CBI

[SaveOD238]

Now that they Ivy League has a 4 team conference tournament, and they are relatively early in their conference season, even all of the Ivy teams could make the NCAA by winning out. 😀

For those who care...Dartmouth is 0-6 in the Ivy right now, with 8 to play.  If they can win out (unlikely) 8-6 could very well be enough to get them into that four-team playoff.  However, they will need help, since they can't beat the teams ahead of them enough times to make up the difference themselves.

So, no, not everyone controls their own destiny.

I just spent way too much time look at Dartmouth's record and schedule...

[brewcity77]

For those who care...Dartmouth is 0-6 in the Ivy right now, with 8 to play.  If they can win out (unlikely) 8-6 could very well be enough to get them into that four-team playoff.  However, they will need help, since they can't beat the teams ahead of them enough times to make up the difference themselves.

So, no, not everyone controls their own destiny.

I just spent way too much time look at Dartmouth's record and schedule...

Thanks for that effort. This is honestly one of my favorite Scoop posts in a long time.

[GooooMarquette]

For those who care...Dartmouth is 0-6 in the Ivy right now, with 8 to play.  If they can win out (unlikely) 8-6 could very well be enough to get them into that four-team playoff.  However, they will need help, since they can't beat the teams ahead of them enough times to make up the difference themselves.

So, no, not everyone controls their own destiny.

I just spent way too much time look at Dartmouth's record and schedule...

You probably spent more time today than anyone else on earth looking at Dartmouth's record and schedule. Congrats!

[GB Warrior]

I think so. A road win against Seton Hall should be enough to bump us past Syracuse, USC, and NC State (especially since they lost to VT last night...thanks Buzz!)

The bubble is weirdly weak but also short this year. The First Four Out is currently Syracuse, Marquette, UCLA, and Nebraska. Those four teams seem legit, like they could get a tourney berth though they all have warts on their resumes.

But drop to the Next Four Out and you can see there is a drop to the next level.

St. Bonaventure: 47 RPI, 103 SOS
Tier 1: 2-2
Tier 2: 3-2
Tier 3: 4-1
Tier 4: 8-1
Best wins: @BUFF (28), @CUSE (35), UVM* (51), MARY*(62), @CANI (125)
Worst Losses: NIAG (165), @STJOES (199), @DAV (127), @DAY (106) TCU* (32)

A couple of wins that look good on paper but not in reality and four dreadful  losses.

Temple: 37 RPI, 6 SOS
Tier 1: 4-6
Tier 2: 3-0
Tier 3: 4-4
Tier 4: 3-0
Best Wins: CLEM* (4), AUB* (9), WICH (25), @SMU (71), SC* (63)
Worst Losses: MEMP (130), TUL (129), GW* (197), @LAS (180), @UGA (72)

Honestly think they have a better shot than the Bonnies. Great computer numbers and a trio of great wins, but four miserable losses. KenPom sees the truth and ranks them 88th.

Western Kentucky: 51 RPI, SOS 65
Tier 1: 1-2
Tier 2: 3-0
Tier 3: 4-5
Tier 4: 7-0
Best Wins: PURD* (12), SMU* (71), @ODU (85), @MARSH (111), WRST (94)
Worst Losses: @OHIO (227), @UTSA (204), MOST (109), @WISC (159), BELM (77)

This is how bad the fringes of the bubble are. A team who counts Wright State at home and Marshall/Old Dominion on the road as three of its best wins is in the bubble conversation. Oh and they have Belmont at home as their 5th worst loss. Extra giggles for Wisconsin being considered a  bad loss.

SMU: 71 RPI, 78 SOS
Tier 1: 2-2
Tier 2: 3-5
Tier 3: 2-1
Tier 4: 8-0
Best Wins: @WICH (25), ARIZ* (14), BOISE (31), USC (44), UCF (68)
Worst Losses: UNI* (153), @TUL (129), @UCONN (102), @TULSA (99), WKY* (51)

Bad computer numbers, some quality wins and some real ugly losses.

Compare that to our resume:

Marquette: RPI 56, SOS 12
Tier 1: 3-8
Tier 2: 2-2
Tier 3: 3-0
Tier 4: 6-0
Best Wins: @HALL (27), @PROV (29), HALL (27), UVM (51), LSU* (81)
Worst Losses: UGA (72), BUT (34), PROV (29), WICH* (25), PURD (12)

This is really quite something, and a reminder when I want to fire Wojo summarily in the emotion of recent losses. We have been nothing but consistent(ly inconsistent). This shows that we are exactly who we thought we were, with really few peaks and valleys.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think so. A road win against Seton Hall should be enough to bump us past Syracuse, USC, and NC State (especially since they lost to VT last night...thanks Buzz!)

The bubble is weirdly weak but also short this year. The First Four Out is currently Syracuse, Marquette, UCLA, and Nebraska. Those four teams seem legit, like they could get a tourney berth though they all have warts on their resumes.

But drop to the Next Four Out and you can see there is a drop to the next level.

St. Bonaventure: 47 RPI, 103 SOS
Tier 1: 2-2
Tier 2: 3-2
Tier 3: 4-1
Tier 4: 8-1
Best wins: @BUFF (28), @CUSE (35), UVM* (51), MARY*(62), @CANI (125)
Worst Losses: NIAG (165), @STJOES (199), @DAV (127), @DAY (106) TCU* (32)

A couple of wins that look good on paper but not in reality and four dreadful  losses.

Temple: 37 RPI, 6 SOS
Tier 1: 4-6
Tier 2: 3-0
Tier 3: 4-4
Tier 4: 3-0
Best Wins: CLEM* (4), AUB* (9), WICH (25), @SMU (71), SC* (63)
Worst Losses: MEMP (130), TUL (129), GW* (197), @LAS (180), @UGA (72)

Honestly think they have a better shot than the Bonnies. Great computer numbers and a trio of great wins, but four miserable losses. KenPom sees the truth and ranks them 88th.

Western Kentucky: 51 RPI, SOS 65
Tier 1: 1-2
Tier 2: 3-0
Tier 3: 4-5
Tier 4: 7-0
Best Wins: PURD* (12), SMU* (71), @ODU (85), @MARSH (111), WRST (94)
Worst Losses: @OHIO (227), @UTSA (204), MOST (109), @WISC (159), BELM (77)

This is how bad the fringes of the bubble are. A team who counts Wright State at home and Marshall/Old Dominion on the road as three of its best wins is in the bubble conversation. Oh and they have Belmont at home as their 5th worst loss. Extra giggles for Wisconsin being considered a  bad loss.

SMU: 71 RPI, 78 SOS
Tier 1: 2-2
Tier 2: 3-5
Tier 3: 2-1
Tier 4: 8-0
Best Wins: @WICH (25), ARIZ* (14), BOISE (31), USC (44), UCF (68)
Worst Losses: UNI* (153), @TUL (129), @UCONN (102), @TULSA (99), WKY* (51)

Bad computer numbers, some quality wins and some real ugly losses.

Compare that to our resume:

Marquette: RPI 56, SOS 12
Tier 1: 3-8
Tier 2: 2-2
Tier 3: 3-0
Tier 4: 6-0
Best Wins: @HALL (27), @PROV (29), HALL (27), UVM (51), LSU* (81)
Worst Losses: UGA (72), BUT (34), PROV (29), WICH* (25), PURD (12)

Marquette's resume is just sooo sooo much cleaner than those.  This is a great post, and one that those who want to understand the bubble should pay close attention to.

And I see that I was wrong about @HALL not being included. In that case, Lunardi is either drunk or just missed the Seton Hall game but included others.

Case in point, why would Syracuse move from the last of the next four out to the top of the first four out just for beating RPI 43 Louisville on the road when we beat RPI 27 Seton Hall on the road? That makes no sense.

I suspect that he made major changes from last night's game like Boise getting the AQ and Nova losing the top seed, but didn't make more minor changes because he'd have to redo most of the bracket. I think we will see it corrected on his next bracket.

Yep. He won't do another full bracket until Monday, but I suspect we'll be in the first four byes with a win on Saturday.

[brewcity77]

But drop to the Next Four Out and you can see there is a drop to the next level.

Thanks for that post, TAMU. This is what people don't get, and what I had a Twitter argument with Dan Needles about the other day that resulted in him blocking me. Said I was "obsessed" with him. Idiot, I'm clearly obsessed with Marquette basketball.

I digress. If you look at the resumes on the bubble, Marquette still has a good case. Sure, there's some competition in those 12 spots from the last byes to the first out, but some of those are pretty questionable, and after those it's hard to imagine those are even high NIT seeds. That's why I think 9-9 will be enough. We won't be the only team to lose games, and it's just not that strong a field.

[Floorslapper]

Marquette's resume is just sooo sooo much cleaner than those.  This is a great post, and one that those who want to understand the bubble should pay close attention to.

Yep. He won't do another full bracket until Monday, but I suspect we'll be in the first four byes with a win on Saturday.

Not sure I agree.  Of the teams listed, they all have MUCH better metrics in the Tier 1&2 categories.  My gut tells me the committee values good wins, more than a team not having "bad losses."  We are just 5-10 against Tier 1&2.  WKU is 4-2.  Upsets are what make NCAA so fun and compelling - a team that demonstrates it can knock off a giant or Top 10/15 type of team adds value to the entertainment value of the tournament.

[GGGG]

Thanks for that post, TAMU. This is what people don't get, and what I had a Twitter argument with Dan Needles about the other day that resulted in him blocking me. Said I was "obsessed" with him. Idiot, I'm clearly obsessed with Marquette basketball.

Debating with Needles on anythings sports related is like debating science with a creationist. 

[Eldon]

I think so. A road win against Seton Hall should be enough to bump us past Syracuse, USC, and NC State (especially since they lost to VT last night...thanks Buzz!)

The bubble is weirdly weak but also short this year. The First Four Out is currently Syracuse, Marquette, UCLA, and Nebraska. Those four teams seem legit, like they could get a tourney berth though they all have warts on their resumes.

But drop to the Next Four Out and you can see there is a drop to the next level.

St. Bonaventure: 47 RPI, 103 SOS
Tier 1: 2-2
Tier 2: 3-2
Tier 3: 4-1
Tier 4: 8-1
Best wins: @BUFF (28), @CUSE (35), UVM* (51), MARY*(62), @CANI (125)
Worst Losses: NIAG (165), @STJOES (199), @DAV (127), @DAY (106) TCU* (32)

A couple of wins that look good on paper but not in reality and four dreadful  losses.

Temple: 37 RPI, 6 SOS
Tier 1: 4-6
Tier 2: 3-0
Tier 3: 4-4
Tier 4: 3-0
Best Wins: CLEM* (4), AUB* (9), WICH (25), @SMU (71), SC* (63)
Worst Losses: MEMP (130), TUL (129), GW* (197), @LAS (180), @UGA (72)

Honestly think they have a better shot than the Bonnies. Great computer numbers and a trio of great wins, but four miserable losses. KenPom sees the truth and ranks them 88th.

Western Kentucky: 51 RPI, SOS 65
Tier 1: 1-2
Tier 2: 3-0
Tier 3: 4-5
Tier 4: 7-0
Best Wins: PURD* (12), SMU* (71), @ODU (85), @MARSH (111), WRST (94)
Worst Losses: @OHIO (227), @UTSA (204), MOST (109), @WISC (159), BELM (77)

This is how bad the fringes of the bubble are. A team who counts Wright State at home and Marshall/Old Dominion on the road as three of its best wins is in the bubble conversation. Oh and they have Belmont at home as their 5th worst loss. Extra giggles for Wisconsin being considered a  bad loss.

SMU: 71 RPI, 78 SOS
Tier 1: 2-2
Tier 2: 3-5
Tier 3: 2-1
Tier 4: 8-0
Best Wins: @WICH (25), ARIZ* (14), BOISE (31), USC (44), UCF (68)
Worst Losses: UNI* (153), @TUL (129), @UCONN (102), @TULSA (99), WKY* (51)

Bad computer numbers, some quality wins and some real ugly losses.

Compare that to our resume:

Marquette: RPI 56, SOS 12
Tier 1: 3-8
Tier 2: 2-2
Tier 3: 3-0
Tier 4: 6-0
Best Wins: @HALL (27), @PROV (29), HALL (27), UVM (51), LSU* (81)
Worst Losses: UGA (72), BUT (34), PROV (29), WICH* (25), PURD (12)

Good effort, bud.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Not sure I agree.  Of the teams listed, they all have MUCH better metrics in the Tier 1&2 categories.  My gut tells me the committee values good wins, more than a team not having "bad losses."  We are just 5-10 against Tier 1&2.  WKU is 4-2.  Upsets are what make NCAA so fun and compelling - a team that demonstrates it can knock off a giant or Top 10/15 type of team adds value to the entertainment value of the tournament.

Not really.  We've just played alot more good teams than the majority of the sample, sans Temple.  We've played 11 tier 1 games - St. Bonnie 4, Western Kentucky 3, and SMU 4.  I don't think MU is going to get punished for their losses to Nova, X and Purdue.

[GGGG]

Not sure I agree.  Of the teams listed, they all have MUCH better metrics in the Tier 1&2 categories.  My gut tells me the committee values good wins, more than a team not having "bad losses."  We are just 5-10 against Tier 1&2.  WKU is 4-2.  Upsets are what make NCAA so fun and compelling - a team that demonstrates it can knock off a giant or Top 10/15 type of team adds value to the entertainment value of the tournament.

I really don't think there is any proof that the Committee bases its selection decisions on "the entertainment value of the tournament."

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not sure I agree.  Of the teams listed, they all have MUCH better metrics in the Tier 1&2 categories.  My gut tells me the committee values good wins, more than a team not having "bad losses."  We are just 5-10 against Tier 1&2.  WKU is 4-2.  Upsets are what make NCAA so fun and compelling - a team that demonstrates it can knock off a giant or Top 10/15 type of team adds value to the entertainment value of the tournament.

Nah. Not how it works.

The committee doesn't look at Marquette and say "wow, they are only 3-8 in Tier 1 games." They look and say "wow, Marquette has 3 tier 1 victories." All those 8 losses mean is that we play a really tough schedule. They don't hurt us in the slightest. Don't help us (except in our computer #s), but definitely don't hurt us.

The only team that is better than us in Tier 1/Tier 2 games is Temple with 7 victories. St. Bonaventure and SMU ties us with 5 victories, but we have 3 Tier 1 victories while the two of them only have 2 Tier 1 victories. Western Kentucky only has 4 Tier 1/2 victories. You add in the fact that we are perfect against Tier 3/4 teams and each of them has at least one Tier 3 loss (and their Tier 2 losses are worse than our Tier 2 losses) and Marquette is beating all of them on Tiers.

You also have to keep in mind that there is a high major bias. So St. Bonaventure might get a "Tier 1 win" for winning at Buffalo whose RPI is currently 28. But the committee also knows that Seton Hall is MUCH better than Buffalo. So even though our Seton Hall road victory is only 1 RPI point better than St. Bonaventure's win over Buffalo, the committee will value the Seton Hall win a lot more than the Buffalo win. This is also hurts us because they won't value our win over Vermont as much.

Finally, I think you are right about good wins being more important than avoiding bad losses. However, we are not just talking about some bad losses. All four of the "Next Four Out" have at least FOUR losses to teams ranked 99 OR LOWER IN RPI. This isn't about having one bad loss to make up for. It's about having multiple terrible losses to make up for. Western Kentucky's win over Purdue (12) makes up for their loss to Ohio (227). But their win over SMU (71) doesn't come close to making up for their loss to UT-San Antonio (204).

Personally, I think Temple's resume is better than St. Bonaventure's and could make the tourney if they win most of their remaining games. The others? I don't see it.

[barfolomew]

The only team that is better than us in Tier 1/Tier 2 games is Temple with 7 victories. St. Bonaventure and SMU ties us with 5 victories, but we have 3 Tier 1 victories while the two of them only have 2 Tier 1 victories. Western Kentucky only has 4 Tier 1/2 victories. You add in the fact that we are perfect against Tier 3/4 teams and each of them has at least one Tier 3 loss (and their Tier 2 losses are worse than our Tier 2 losses) and Marquette is beating all of them on Tiers.

So if we make the tourney they will be tiers of joy?

[TheREALwrk]

We're not even on the bubble, according to CBS: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

We're not even on the bubble, according to CBS: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Those "bubble teams" are all in their projected field. So they list who could fall out of the bracket but not who might replace them.

[PistolBrad]

We're not even on the bubble, according to CBS: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

That has gotta be a mistake.  No way those bottom bubble teams are anywhere near Marquette

[rocky_warrior]

The committee doesn't look at Marquette and say "wow, they are only 3-8 in Tier 1 games." They look and say "wow, Marquette has 3 tier 1 victories." All those 8 losses mean is that we play a really tough schedule. They don't hurt us in the slightest. Don't help us (except in our computer #s), but definitely don't hurt us.

Logically, I don't disagree with you.  However, looking at the current team sheet for MU, there's notable a lot of RED in the tier 1 box. And visually that has an effect of people. "Wow, they played a lot of tourney teams, but sure didn't win many games".  I don't know what will happen come selection Sunday, but I don't discount that the team sheet is meant to help visualize a team's season, and I'm not so sure our tough slate is helping us without a lot of good wins.

[BM1090]

Those "bubble teams" are all in their projected field. So they list who could fall out of the bracket but not who might replace them.

Palm said he doesn't consider teams who aren't at least 4 games above .500. We were 13-10 when this was posted.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

We're not even on the bubble, according to CBS: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

His list makes no sense

[Mr. Nielsen]

Thanks for that post, TAMU. This is what people don't get, and what I had a Twitter argument with Dan Needles about the other day that resulted in him blocking me. Said I was "obsessed" with him. Idiot, I'm clearly obsessed with Marquette basketball.

I just went to find it. Another local idiot. Maybe Needles needs to check out Joey Brackets or Jerry Palm.

[JoeSmith1721]

When does the NCAA release their top 16 teams?