It only gets worse for Bucky

[cheese ball chaser]

BarTorvik and KenPom are quality. Not a fan of teamrankings.

They all suck compared to synergy though. https://corp.synergysportstech.com/

This is how Andrei pays me for my Paint Touches articles, gives me access to a synergy account it's niiiiiice.

Woah, Synergy? Now that is awesome

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If so, they'll likely break some RPI precedents. Here are record forecasts currently for Pomeroy for possible NCAA teams:


• Indiana 15-15 (8-10)
  
• Maryland 20-11 (9-9)
  
• Minnesota 18-13 (7-11)
  
• Nebraska 19-12 (10-8)
  
• Northwestern 15-15 (7-11)
  
• Penn State 17-14 (7-11)
  
• Wisconsin 14-17 (7-11)
Now, here are what they need to do to get an RPI better than 67, which is the current worst ever RPI to get into the NCAA Tournament:


• Indiana 19-11 (12-6), 57 RPI: Anything less has them sub-70 RPI. They have to finish 7-3 when they will only be favored twice per Pomeroy.
  
• Maryland 18-12 (8-10), 58 RPI: I do think Maryland gets in as the 5th Big Ten team. Their resume is thin, but they should have the numbers.
  
• Minnesota 20-11 (9-9), 66 RPI: They probably actually need 10-8, which means 7-2 the rest of the way. 7 wins when they are favored in only 3 games.
  
• Nebraska 21-10 (12-6), 57 RPI: A Nebraska fan started me looking at these recently. They could go 12-6 in the Big 10 and still be on the bubble. Do they go 7-2 down the stretch? It's possible, but any slip-up and they're out. This shows why the Big 10 is so weak that a team could realistically go 12-6 team and be left out.
  
• Northwestern 19-11 (11-7), 65 RPI: Remember how excited we were to beat Northwestern in that exhibition? Not sure how this team is this bad, but 8-2 the rest of the way gets them on the bubble. They aren't going 8-2.
  
• Penn State 21-10 (11-7), 57 RPI: They need to go 8-2 and they're favored in 4 games. Again, this is just to get on the bubble.
  
• Wisconsin 19-12 (12-6), 58 RPI: This gives me the most hope they are done, because I don't see them going 9-2 the rest of the way.

I think most likely these numbers are the minimums these teams need to get in. Again, I do think Maryland will get there. They really only have the Butler win, but they have no bad losses, only one sub-300 opponent, and a good shot at 20 wins and 9-9 in conference. But after that?

Someone there needs to get really hot. Indiana, Northwestern, and Penn State just don't seem good enough. Minnesota and Wisconsin just did too much damage to their resumes already to overcome it. The Huskers are the only really viable argument, but I have a hard time seeing them at 12-6 even in a depleted Big 10. And even if 1-2 of these teams have this kind of white hot finish, this is just to get on the bubble. RPIs in the low-50s to mid-60s are no guarantee, especially when there will be mid-majors with legitimate cases.

Ugh...like TAMU, I like this stuff way too much and spend way too much time looking at these types of things. Okay...back to moving furniture to make my wife happy.

Great analysis. I think you've nailed it. 4 basic locks at this point, with Maryland as the 5th squad a handful of teams that need to go bonkers next 6 weeks for the B10 to get 6.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Yep, great analysis guys. B1G might have a better shot at an outlier winning the B1G tournament than one of them getting an at-large bid.

[onepost]

I genuinely love all the analysis you guys do for all conferences.  I watch plenty of college hoops but to get some advanced stats behind it is so awesome.  That being said, Wisconsin is getting blasted by pathetic Iowa so let's go ahead and drop the narrative they have any chance of dancing.  Thanks!

[cheebs09]

I think we can stop talking Bucky tourney scenarios.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

Never had a higher opinion of Doug Gottlieb: https://twitter.com/gottliebshow/status/955986732264046593

[MarquetteDano]

Never had a higher opinion of Doug Gottlieb: https://twitter.com/gottliebshow/status/955986732264046593

As much as the "Cool story Bro" made me laugh.... Gottlieb really is a jag.

[GoldenDieners32]

I think we can stop talking Bucky tourney scenarios.

+1 who likes the rodents anyway

[MUDPT]

Mike Heller, he of the "Wes Matthews didn't go to UW because of academics" club

[Ellenson Guerrero]

As much as the "Cool story Bro" made me laugh.... Gottlieb really is a jag.

1) I agree.

2) In this context, doesn't bother me.

[We R Final Four]

Haha—that's funny sheet from Dougy.

I HATE frickin Mike Heller so this makes me happy.

[GooooMarquette]

As much as the "Cool story Bro" made me laugh.... Gottlieb really is a jag.

He's a jag...but at least he's a jag who kicks the rodents when they suck.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

It takes a lot for me to not dislike Doug "Miami by a sizeable margin" Gottelib, but kicking the Rodents while they're already down works for me.

[tower912]

Love it.    Mid major. 

[wadesworld]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=400986525

Are we done talking about UW being able to get to 11 or 12 wins in the B1G or...?

Sure, in theory if they win out they'll make the NCAA Tournament.  But in reality they aren't winning out or getting 11 or 12 B1G wins.  They are legitimately an awful basketball team.

I think the Marquette vs. UW game would've been a closer game if it was Marquette University High School, who is a middle of the pack Greater Metro Conference basketball team this year, instead of Marquette University blowing out the Badgers on their home court.

[MU82]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=400986525

Are we done talking about UW being able to get to 11 or 12 wins in the B1G or...?

Sure, in theory if they win out they'll make the NCAA Tournament.  But in reality they aren't winning out or getting 11 or 12 B1G wins.  They are legitimately an awful basketball team.

I think the Marquette vs. UW game would've been a closer game if it was Marquette University High School, who is a middle of the pack Greater Metro Conference basketball team this year, instead of Marquette University blowing out the Badgers on their home court.

Agreed.

The "they had bad starts but turned it around before" argument stops working after awhile. I think we've arrived at that point.

Nice to see F%cky be sucky ... even if it hurts our RPI a tad.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Bucky is 1-8 away from the Kohl Hole, with only a close W vs. Penn State.  Fork meet rodent.

[GooooMarquette]

Bucky is 1-8 away from the Kohl Hole, with a only a close W vs. Penn State.  Fork meet rodent.

Fork the Rodents!

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

At this point the Badgers just want to make it to March, as in March 1. B1G tournament opens Feb 28.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Bucky is 1-8 away from the Kohl Hole, with only a close W vs. Penn State.  Fork meet rodent.

And wasn't that a controversial ending in their favor or am I misremembering?

[Windyplayer]

At this point the Badgers just want to make it to March, as in March 1. B1G tournament opens Feb 28.

How interesting, how bizarre!

[GGGG]

And wasn't that a controversial ending in their favor or am I misremembering?

I don't think so.  UW almost blew a big lead and PSU missed a shot at the end.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

And wasn't that a controversial ending in their favor or am I misremembering?

You're thinking of their home win against Western Kentucky. Davison drew a questionable "charge" with a second left to get free throws to win.

[Newsdreams]

This is a fun tweet. We should all call, fire Gard!

https://twitter.com/kylemaichle52/status/956039792931766272

[BrewCity83]

This is a fun tweet. We should all call, fire Gard!

https://twitter.com/kylemaichle52/status/956039792931766272

No!  Don't call!  Let them twist in the wind with Gard for a few years!