Author Topic: MLB 2018 Season (Read 498376 times)

Jockey · « **Reply #1475 on:** June 15, 2018, 01:36:07 PM »

So have MLB players been kneeling for the anthem? $:-\$

Huge attendance drop this year.

🏀 · « **Reply #1476 on:** June 15, 2018, 02:16:58 PM »

Quote from: Jockey on June 15, 2018, 01:36:07 PM

So have MLB players been kneeling for the anthem? $:-\$

Huge attendance drop this year.

I'm guessing weather has to be a major factor.

LAZER · « **Reply #1477 on:** June 15, 2018, 02:40:03 PM »

Quote from: PTM + Chartouny = Us on June 15, 2018, 02:16:58 PM

I'm guessing weather has to be a major factor.

10 teams already 10+ games back in the division can't help either.

MerrittsMustache · « **Reply #1478 on:** June 15, 2018, 02:45:35 PM »

Bad weather + Blatant tanking = Poor attendance

Jockey · « **Reply #1479 on:** June 15, 2018, 05:54:06 PM »

Quote from: PTM + Chartouny = Us on June 15, 2018, 02:16:58 PM

I'm guessing weather has to be a major factor.

That was my 1st guess, but Toronto and Miami are way down and weather is no factor for them.

In reality, attendance is down for the same reason it is down in the NFL. The way we digest sports is changing.

As of now, it seems like only the NBA is adjusting.

buckchuckler · « **Reply #1480 on:** June 15, 2018, 08:52:49 PM »

Quote from: Jockey on June 15, 2018, 05:54:06 PM

That was my 1st guess, but Toronto and Miami are way down and weather is no factor for them.

In reality, attendance is down for the same reason it is down in the NFL. The way we digest sports is changing.

As of now, it seems like only the NBA is adjusting.

Those are both terrible teams, with fanbases renowned to be fickle.

jsglow · « **Reply #1481 on:** June 16, 2018, 07:09:12 AM »

Quote from: SaveOD238 on June 14, 2018, 12:19:22 PM

They might come down to earth a little, but I really highly doubt that a team that is 14 over .500 over the first 68 games will play 2 under .500 the last 94. Fangraphs thinks that the Cardinals, Angels, D-Backs, As, Rockies, Giants, Pirates, Twins, Blue Jays, and Mets all will have better W% than the Brewers for the rest of the season. Something is wrong with their formula that underestimates what the Crew has and will do.

FiveThirtyEight says 92-70 (and still three behind the Cubs), which seems far more reasonable. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/

I just took a look at Fangraphs this morning for fun. As of today, their model has the Crew playing 3 games below .500 the rest of the way. Moreover, fully 2/3 of the National League teams are expected to outperform them the rest of the way. Wow, why even go to the ballpark?

Jockey · « **Reply #1482 on:** June 16, 2018, 03:59:56 PM »

Quote from: jsglow on June 16, 2018, 07:09:12 AM

I just took a look at Fangraphs this morning for fun. As of today, their model has the Crew playing 3 games below .500 the rest of the way. Moreover, fully 2/3 of the National League teams are expected to outperform them the rest of the way. Wow, why even go to the ballpark?

I would guess that is based on expected regression in 1-run games.

They don't take into account that their is a reason they have won so many close games - the best bullpen in the league.

jsglow · « **Reply #1483 on:** June 16, 2018, 04:18:45 PM »

Quote from: Jockey on June 16, 2018, 03:59:56 PM

I would guess that is based on expected regression in 1-run games.

They don't take into account that their is a reason they have won so many close games - the best bullpen in the league.

It just seems like a crappy model to me.

TSmith34, Inc. · « **Reply #1484 on:** June 16, 2018, 04:19:26 PM »

Let us not jinx things. I recall the year they were up 10 games on the division before the AS break.

jsglow · « **Reply #1485 on:** June 16, 2018, 04:22:40 PM »

Absolutely. But to predict that a .600 club is going to play below .500 (meaning that's their median prediction) just seems crazy. The only team the Crew seemingly loses to is Chicago! (Cubs AND Sox)

Jockey · « **Reply #1486 on:** June 16, 2018, 09:55:20 PM »

Quote from: jsglow on June 16, 2018, 04:18:45 PM

It just seems like a crappy model to me.

That's why I argue against Auburn's numbers sometimes. They can tell us a lot, but they tell us more after the fact than being predictive.

Juan Anderson's Mixtape · « **Reply #1487 on:** June 17, 2018, 07:45:17 AM »

Quote from: jsglow on June 16, 2018, 04:18:45 PM

It just seems like a crappy model to me.

The models work on a macro-level but can break down on a micro-level.

The model is waiting for Junior Guerra to stop pitching so well, Jesus Aguilar to stop raking, the Brewers record in one run games to regress towards .500, etc.

It's predicting what should happen, not what will happen. It uses the past to try to predict the future, but the future is uncertain.

Pakuni · « **Reply #1488 on:** June 17, 2018, 05:22:35 PM »

Ah, the Brewers.

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/6/17/17473318/adrian-houser-barf-throw-up-vomit-pitching-mound-brewers-phillies

TallTitan34 · « **Reply #1489 on:** June 18, 2018, 09:20:08 AM »

Quote from: Jockey on June 16, 2018, 03:59:56 PM

They don't take into account that their is a reason they have won so many close games - the best bullpen in the league.

Third best. Behind the Cubs.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/128/order/false

MerrittsMustache · « **Reply #1490 on:** June 19, 2018, 10:18:45 AM »

The Cubs haven't scored a run since Saturday and moved into 1st place.

You gotta love baseball!

Jockey · « **Reply #1491 on:** June 19, 2018, 10:31:46 AM »

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on June 19, 2018, 10:18:45 AM

The Cubs haven't scored a run since Saturday and moved into 1st place.

You gotta love baseball!

Will this become a trend? Will other clubs try to emulate the Cubbies "success"?

TallTitan34 · « **Reply #1492 on:** June 19, 2018, 10:53:45 AM »

That's been their problem all season. The first two games against the Cardinals, they combine for 19 runs then get shut out in the third game. They score 7 on the Brewers in the first game, then get shut out the next two.

I saw they are averaging over 7 runs a game in their wins and under 2 in their losses. Either everyone is hot or everyone is cold any given day.

MerrittsMustache · « **Reply #1493 on:** June 19, 2018, 11:16:04 AM »

Another reason to love baseball.

Juan Soto officially hit his 6th career MLB HR 5 days before his MLB debut.

buckchuckler · « **Reply #1494 on:** June 19, 2018, 11:43:38 AM »

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on June 19, 2018, 11:16:04 AM

Another reason to love baseball.

Juan Soto officially hit his 6th career MLB HR 5 days before his MLB debut.

\

Soto has been quite outstanding. Not bad for a 19 year old.

MerrittsMustache · « **Reply #1495 on:** June 19, 2018, 03:58:00 PM »

Brewers lose 3 straight...move back into 1st place.

Hey, Joe! Where was Morrow?

TallTitan34 · « **Reply #1496 on:** June 19, 2018, 08:13:24 PM »

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on June 19, 2018, 03:58:00 PM

Brewers lose 3 straight...move back into 1st place.

Hey, Joe! Where was Morrow?

Back tightness. But definitely better options than Justin Wilson.

Jockey · « **Reply #1497 on:** June 19, 2018, 08:30:39 PM »

So, what do the Brewers do with Peralta?

Dr. Blackheart · « **Reply #1498 on:** June 19, 2018, 09:30:20 PM »

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on June 19, 2018, 10:18:45 AM

The Cubs haven't scored a run since Saturday and moved into 1st place.

You gotta love baseball!

PEDs

Vander Blue Man Group · « **Reply #1499 on:** June 19, 2018, 10:34:30 PM »

Quote from: TallTitan34 on June 19, 2018, 08:13:24 PM

Back tightness. But definitely better options than Justin Wilson.

Such as?

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Author Topic: MLB 2018 Season (Read 498376 times)