MLB 2018 Season

[Jockey]

So have MLB players been kneeling for the anthem? 

Huge attendance drop this year.

[🏀]

So have MLB players been kneeling for the anthem? 

Huge attendance drop this year.

I'm guessing weather has to be a major factor.

[LAZER]

I'm guessing weather has to be a major factor.

10 teams already 10+ games back in the division can't help either.

[MerrittsMustache]

Bad weather + Blatant tanking = Poor attendance

[Jockey]

I'm guessing weather has to be a major factor.

That was my 1st guess, but Toronto and Miami are way down and weather is no factor for them.

In reality, attendance is down for the same reason it is down in the NFL. The way we digest sports is changing.

As of now, it seems like only the NBA is adjusting.

[buckchuckler]

That was my 1st guess, but Toronto and Miami are way down and weather is no factor for them.

In reality, attendance is down for the same reason it is down in the NFL. The way we digest sports is changing.

As of now, it seems like only the NBA is adjusting.

Those are both terrible teams, with fanbases renowned to be fickle.

[jsglow]

They might come down to earth a little, but I really highly doubt that a team that is 14 over .500 over the first 68 games will play 2 under .500 the last 94.  Fangraphs thinks that the Cardinals, Angels, D-Backs, As, Rockies, Giants, Pirates, Twins, Blue Jays, and Mets all will have better W% than the Brewers for the rest of the season.  Something is wrong with their formula that underestimates what the Crew has and will do.

FiveThirtyEight says 92-70 (and still three behind the Cubs), which seems far more reasonable. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/

I just took a look at Fangraphs this morning for fun.  As of today, their model has the Crew playing 3 games below .500 the rest of the way.  Moreover, fully 2/3 of the National League teams are expected to outperform them the rest of the way.  Wow, why even go to the ballpark?

[Jockey]

I just took a look at Fangraphs this morning for fun.  As of today, their model has the Crew playing 3 games below .500 the rest of the way.  Moreover, fully 2/3 of the National League teams are expected to outperform them the rest of the way.  Wow, why even go to the ballpark?

I would guess that is based on expected regression in 1-run games.

They don't take into account that their is a reason they have won so many close games - the best bullpen in the league.

[jsglow]

I would guess that is based on expected regression in 1-run games.

They don't take into account that their is a reason they have won so many close games - the best bullpen in the league.

It just seems like a crappy model to me.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Let us not jinx things.  I recall the year they were up 10 games on the division before the AS break.

[jsglow]

Absolutely.  But to predict that a .600 club is going to play below .500 (meaning that's their median prediction) just seems crazy.  The only team the Crew seemingly loses to is Chicago! (Cubs AND Sox) 

[Jockey]

It just seems like a crappy model to me.

That's why I argue against Auburn's numbers sometimes. They can tell us a lot, but they tell us more after the fact than being predictive.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

It just seems like a crappy model to me.

The models work on a macro-level but can break down on a micro-level.

The model is waiting for Junior Guerra to stop pitching so well, Jesus Aguilar to stop raking, the Brewers record in one run games to regress towards .500, etc.

It's predicting what should happen, not what will happen.  It uses the past to try to predict the future, but the future is uncertain.

[Pakuni]

Ah, the Brewers.

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/6/17/17473318/adrian-houser-barf-throw-up-vomit-pitching-mound-brewers-phillies

[TallTitan34]

They don't take into account that their is a reason they have won so many close games - the best bullpen in the league.

Third best.  Behind the Cubs. 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/128/order/false

[MerrittsMustache]

The Cubs haven't scored a run since Saturday and moved into 1st place.

You gotta love baseball!

[Jockey]

The Cubs haven't scored a run since Saturday and moved into 1st place.

You gotta love baseball!

Will this become a trend? Will other clubs try to emulate the Cubbies "success"?

[TallTitan34]

That's been their problem all season.  The first two games against the Cardinals, they combine for 19 runs then get shut out in the third game.  They score 7 on the Brewers in the first game, then get shut out the next two.

I saw they are averaging over 7 runs a game in their wins and under 2 in their losses.  Either everyone is hot or everyone is cold any given day.

[MerrittsMustache]

Another reason to love baseball.

Juan Soto officially hit his 6th career MLB HR 5 days before his MLB debut.

[buckchuckler]

Another reason to love baseball.

Juan Soto officially hit his 6th career MLB HR 5 days before his MLB debut.

\

Soto has been quite outstanding.  Not bad for a 19 year old.

[MerrittsMustache]

Brewers lose 3 straight...move back into 1st place.

Hey, Joe! Where was Morrow?

[TallTitan34]

Brewers lose 3 straight...move back into 1st place.

Hey, Joe! Where was Morrow?

Back tightness. But definitely better options than Justin Wilson.

[Jockey]

So, what do the Brewers do with Peralta?

[Dr. Blackheart]

The Cubs haven't scored a run since Saturday and moved into 1st place.

You gotta love baseball!

PEDs

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Back tightness. But definitely better options than Justin Wilson.

Such as?