MLB 2018 Season

[TallTitan34]

ESPN's Cy Young predictor has Josh Hader 5th in the NL at the moment. I'm sure Cubs fans don't consider 5th as "on the short list" but it certainly is. This really doesn't have to be as complicated as you guys want to make it.

Dude, I'm not arguing about Hader being good or getting Cy Young votes.  Yes, he's a beast.  Yes, he will get some Cy Young votes if he keeps it up.

I am arguing your point that relievers are more important than starters.

[Its DJOver]

No doubt the bullpen takes on a heightened importance in the postseason.  You can certainly shorten the game with a dominant pen and they can pitch more often due to the scheduled off-days (See Brandon Morrow last year with LA). 

However, saying you'd rather have a Josh Hader or an Andrew Miller in the postseason vs.a Justin Verlander.  Sorry - but that's nuts.

I did not name pitchers, so pulling those names out is somewhat unfair.  I would rather take 8 innings of dominant pitching spread out over 4 games than 12 innings over two games.  I think most managers would agree with that too, based on how frequently starters get moved to the pen on what would normally be a rest day in the postseason.

[Its DJOver]

Think of it this way.  In the postseason when every game is important, if you had 100 pitches of dominant baseball, would you put all 100 in one game and have a really high chance of winning that one game, or would you put 25 per game over four games and increase your chance of winning each game a smaller amount, but in multiple games.  Justin Verlander doesn't do you any good in game 7 if he threw 100+ pitches in game 6.  Josh Hader can throw 25+ pitches in both 6 and 7.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Go check out who has the best bullpen ERAs and compare that to the MLB standings.

Or look at a team like the Brewers.  Are the Brewers winning games because they're lighting up the scoreboard night in and night out?  Nope.  Are they winning games because Jhoulys Chacin, Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Junior Garra are dominating opposing lineups?  Nope.  It's because they have the best bullpen in baseball and all you need is 4-5 innings of mediocre starting pitching and the bullpen will throw 4-5 innings of scoreless baseball from there on out.

5 years ago you're right.  Relievers/bullpens were not as important as starters.  Thankfully David Stearns understands where baseball has moved to.

Again, no one is saying bullpens aren't important.  They've certainly become more specialized and taken on more importance in recent years. 

The bullpen is certainly contributing to Milwaukee's good start, considering their run differential is only +15.  Currently, Milwaukee is also 2nd in the baseball in quality starts.  Their starting rotation is 13th in ERA so not great but good enough to stay in and win close games with a dominant bullpen.  When you look at rotation ERA, the top 13-14 are all currently playoff contenders.    It doesn't work the same way for bullpens.

The Padres have thee 5th best bullpen ERA currently and the Blue Jays are 6th.  Yet they are not contenders.  Why?  Their SP ERAs are 24th (Padres) and 26th (Jays) respectively. 

Relievers and bullpens are important and valuable but not moreso than starting pitching. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Think of it this way.  In the postseason when every game is important, if you had 100 pitches of dominant baseball, would you put all 100 in one game and have a really high chance of winning that one game, or would you put 25 per game over four games and increase your chance of winning each game a smaller amount, but in multiple games.  Justin Verlander doesn't do you any good in game 7 if he threw 100+ pitches in game 6.  Josh Hader can throw 25+ pitches in both 6 and 7.

Those dominant pitches are not going to do you any good if you don't have the lead.  Look at Yu Darvish's World Series performances last year.  Perhaps that's an extreme but Jansen and Morrow don't do you any good when your team is put in a huge hole early in a game. 

[Jockey]

Dude, I'm not arguing about Hader being good or getting Cy Young votes.  Yes, he's a beast.  Yes, he will get some Cy Young votes if he keeps it up.

I am arguing your point that relievers are more important than starters.

Things aren't always black or white.

Hader is obviously more valuable than any Brewers starter.

Scherzer and deGrom (so far this year) are more valuable than any reliever.


But, quite simply, if the season ended today, Hader would deserve the Cy Young because he would be the most valuable pitcher on a team that actually makes the playoffs.

[buckchuckler]

Think of it this way.  In the postseason when every game is important, if you had 100 pitches of dominant baseball, would you put all 100 in one game and have a really high chance of winning that one game, or would you put 25 per game over four games and increase your chance of winning each game a smaller amount, but in multiple games.  Justin Verlander doesn't do you any good in game 7 if he threw 100+ pitches in game 6.  Josh Hader can throw 25+ pitches in both 6 and 7.

Hmm.  Well, there is this guy that sprang to mind...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=bumgama01&t=p&post=1

and of course this guy

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=buehrma01&t=p&post=1

And others as well.  Now they are clearly the exception but still, they can do it.  Best that you don't need to ask them, but there they are, I'm sure there are more, these 2 are just the two I thought of immediately. 

Also looking at Hader's game log, he has only thrown back to back days one time (and threw only 12 pitches in the first) so far this year.  And he is averaging over 2 days rest between appearances. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=haderjo01&t=p&year=2018

Not saying he couldn't do it, but so far the Brewers haven't really used him like that, and probably won't in the regular season, at least not until it is September.  But assuming he can give you 25 pitches on back to back days isn't a given.


This post is mostly dealing in the absurd so probably best to ignore it actually.

[Jockey]

Again, no one is saying bullpens aren't important.  They've certainly become more specialized and taken on more importance in recent years. 

The bullpen is certainly contributing to Milwaukee's good start, considering their run differential is only +15.  Currently, Milwaukee is also 2nd in the baseball in quality starts.  Their starting rotation is 13th in ERA so not great but good enough to stay in and win close games with a dominant bullpen.  When you look at rotation ERA, the top 13-14 are all currently playoff contenders.    It doesn't work the same way for bullpens.

The Padres have thee 5th best bullpen ERA currently and the Blue Jays are 6th.  Yet they are not contenders.  Why?  Their SP ERAs are 24th (Padres) and 26th (Jays) respectively. 

Relievers and bullpens are important and valuable but not moreso than starting pitching.

VBMG, you are certainly correct in what you are saying here.

Bur keep in mind that Brewers' starters are not expected to ever pitch more than 6 innings. Counsel wants the starters to get 15-18 outs and doesn't expect more. Chacin is the only Brewers who is in the top 80 in innings pitched. That is why a staff of Chacin, Woodruff, Suter, Peralta, Guerra, etc. can be so successful.

With that same staff 10 years ago when starters were expected to go deep into games, the Brewers would be battling Cincinnati for last place.

[buckchuckler]

Things aren't always black or white.

Hader is obviously more valuable than any Brewers starter.

Scherzer and deGrom (so far this year) are more valuable than any reliever.


But, quite simply, if the season ended today, Hader would deserve the Cy Young because he would be the most valuable pitcher on a team that actually makes the playoffs.

Even that is debatable. 

Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta for Philly, Sean Newcomb for Atl, and Patrick Corbin for Arizona could all make cases, as could Carlos Martinez and Bud Norris from STL, and Brandon Morrow for the Cubs.

Good thing the season still has months to go and this will likely work itself out.  My money is on Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw.

[Its DJOver]

Those dominant pitches are not going to do you any good if you don't have the lead.  Look at Yu Darvish's World Series performances last year.  Perhaps that's an extreme but Jansen and Morrow don't do you any good when your team is put in a huge hole early in a game.

I looked at the entire World Series.  Darvish gets the blame (and deservedly so) because he had a bad World Series.  That being said, Darvish only pitched in 2 games, which means that there were 5 games that he had absolutely no influence over. Morrow appeared in every game of the World Series, and Jansen appeared in 5 of them which tells me that their influence in each game was less, especially when Darvish dug them into a hole, but they were able to effect every game of the World Series.

If you know that you get 9 innings of at bats and your opponent effectively only gets 7 because you have a reliever that is that good, being able to pitch them every game is more influential in a shorter series than having one dominant ace.  Darvish could have gone 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and the Dodgers could have still the series in 6 because there would have been 4 games that Darvish would have been useless.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Let's look at the playoff teams and their overall SP and RP ERA rankings from the last couple of years:

2017 Division Winners

Dodgers (1st/4th)
Indians (2nd/1st)
Nats (4th/23rd)
Astros (6th/17th)
Cubs (7th/6th)
Red Sox (8th/2nd)

Wildcards

DBacks (3rd/5th)
Yankees (5th/3rd)
Rockies (16th/20th)
Twins (19th/22nd)

2016

Division Winners

Cubs (1st/8th)
Nationals (2nd/2nd)
Dodgers (6th/1st)
Indians (7th/4th)
Red Sox (8th/9th)
Rangers (16th/25th)

Wildcards

Mets (3rd/6th)
Giants (5th/15th)
Blue Jays (4th/22nd)
Orioles (24th/3rd)

Of the 12 division winners, only one had a SP ERA that was not in the top 8 in baseball.  Of the 20 playoff teams, 16 of them had SP ERAs in the top 8 in baseball. 

Yes, 13 of the playoff teams also had top 10 bullpen ERAs as many of the staffs were just good from top to bottom.  However, you're more likely to sneak into the playoffs with a mediocre to average bullpen than you are with a mediocre to average rotation.  You're getting more high quality innings seeing the same hitters multiple times per game. 

[Its DJOver]

Hmm.  Well, there is this guy that sprang to mind...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=bumgama01&t=p&post=1

and of course this guy

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=buehrma01&t=p&post=1

And others as well.  Now they are clearly the exception but still, they can do it.  Best that you don't need to ask them, but there they are, I'm sure there are more, these 2 are just the two I thought of immediately. 

Also looking at Hader's game log, he has only thrown back to back days one time (and threw only 12 pitches in the first) so far this year.  And he is averaging over 2 days rest between appearances. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=haderjo01&t=p&year=2018

Not saying he couldn't do it, but so far the Brewers haven't really used him like that, and probably won't in the regular season, at least not until it is September.  But assuming he can give you 25 pitches on back to back days isn't a given.


This post is mostly dealing in the absurd so probably best to ignore it actually.

It's pretty well known that doing that consistently will shorten a starters career by quite a few years.  Kershaw pitched in game 7 last year on short rest, CC did it for the Brewers.  Pitchers will take that risk in October, they won't take the same risk in any other situation.

And I'm pretty happy that Hader hasn't had to pitch back to back too often this early in the season, but I'd be willing to bet that he could go 4 games out of 5 in a series in October if he was asked to do so.

[buckchuckler]

Darvish could have gone 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and the Dodgers could have still the series in 6 because there would have been 4 games that Darvish would have been useless.

Huh?  Are you saying they would have lost if they only had 1 pitcher to use?  I don't quite get what you are trying to say here. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

VBMG, you are certainly correct in what you are saying here.

Bur keep in mind that Brewers' starters are not expected to ever pitch more than 6 innings. Counsel wants the starters to get 15-18 outs and doesn't expect more. Chacin is the only Brewers who is in the top 80 in innings pitched. That is why a staff of Chacin, Woodruff, Suter, Peralta, Guerra, etc. can be so successful.

With that same staff 10 years ago when starters were expected to go deep into games, the Brewers would be battling Cincinnati for last place.

I don't disagree with any of this.  There are multiple ways to win games and the Brewers are taking the route that is most effective for them.  Try to get the starter through 5-6 IP, only facing a lineup twice, and then turn it over to what has been a dominant bullpen. 

I'm of the mind that is not going to be sustainable for a 162 game season if you don't get a little more length from the rotation.  The bullpen is going to wear down and become less effective.  I certainly saw that happen with the Cubs last year and I have the same concern for the Cubs so far this year with how much they've had to use their pen. 

Again, I'm not arguing against the importance of a good bullpen.  I just believe the good starting pitching is more valuable because you'll win more games and keep the bullpen more rested.  Look at the Cubs rotation in 2016 or the Astros so far this year. 

[Its DJOver]

Huh?  Are you saying they would have lost if they only had 1 pitcher to use?  I don't quite get what you are trying to say here.

I'm saying in a 5 game series, the best starter in the world in going to get at the most 2 starts.  The best reliever could be getting 4 appearances.  The reliever would be getting fewer innings, but could have a bigger influence on the series because they get more appearances, and likely more late game appearances when giving up a key hit or run is more likely to influence the result of the game.

[TallTitan34]

I'm saying in a 5 game series, the best starter in the world in going to get at the most 2 starts.  The best reliever could be getting 4 appearances.  The reliever would be getting fewer innings, but could have a bigger influence on the series because they get more appearances, and likely more late game appearances when giving up a key hit or run is more likely to influence the result of the game.

So would you trade Hader for a top notch starting pitcher?

[Its DJOver]

So would you trade Hader for a top notch starting pitcher?

Considering my argument has only been about the post season, and I think the Brewers will struggle to get there, yes. 

Look at my first post today, I said that starting pitching is more important than relief pitching for the regular season.  I don't think the Brewers are a good enough all around team to win it all regardless.  They could make the playoffs, which is a step in the right direction, so getting an ace, which is more important in the regular season, is more important than having one of the best relievers in the game right now.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Can we wait until all the drug tests are in before we assign the Cy Young winner?

[MarquetteFan94]

With more days off during the playoffs, managers can get much more aggressive with their bullpen use and give the starters a quick hook.

It's also pretty obvious bullpen usage is greater now than it used to be....clearly proven a starter's production goes down the third or fourth time through a lineup....why wait for it happen?

The playoffs are played/pitched differently, there's no way to deny that....but without 2-3 ace-like starters, the likelihood a team's bullpen getting too much work in the regular season is pretty strong...even worse if the bullpen is below average.  You can camouflage a mediocre bullpen and get to the playoffs, but it'll likely catch up to you....2017 Cubs.

Hader is not winning the Cy Young any time soon but he's been a stud.

[TallTitan34]

While we are handing out awards here in May, don't forget to hand out that National League Most Valuable Player! 

Defense is more important than offense.  If the season ended today Kyle Schwarber would be the best defender on a playoff team.

[🏀]

While we are handing out awards here in May, don't forget to hand out that National League Most Valuable Player! 

Defense is more important than offense.  If the season ended today Kyle Schwarber would be the best defender on a playoff team.

This hot take is almost as bad as starters more valuable than relievers.

[Jockey]

I don't disagree with any of this.  There are multiple ways to win games and the Brewers are taking the route that is most effective for them.  Try to get the starter through 5-6 IP, only facing a lineup twice, and then turn it over to what has been a dominant bullpen. 

I'm of the mind that is not going to be sustainable for a 162 game season if you don't get a little more length from the rotation.  The bullpen is going to wear down and become less effective.  I certainly saw that happen with the Cubs last year and I have the same concern for the Cubs so far this year with how much they've had to use their pen. 

Again, I'm not arguing against the importance of a good bullpen.  I just believe the good starting pitching is more valuable because you'll win more games and keep the bullpen more rested.  Look at the Cubs rotation in 2016 or the Astros so far this year.

Thanks for your take, VBMG. I think we are probably 80% or more in agreement.

[Jockey]

While we are handing out awards here in May, don't forget to hand out that National League Most Valuable Player! 

Defense is more important than offense.  If the season ended today Kyle Schwarber would be the best defender on a playoff team.

If you believe your statement, you should stick to posting about basketball or beer.

[buckchuckler]

Considering my argument has only been about the post season, and I think the Brewers will struggle to get there, yes. 

Look at my first post today, I said that starting pitching is more important than relief pitching for the regular season.  I don't think the Brewers are a good enough all around team to win it all regardless.  They could make the playoffs, which is a step in the right direction, so getting an ace, which is more important in the regular season, is more important than having one of the best relievers in the game right now.

If you are going to win in the postseason, you pretty much need both.  The Royals were probably the most bullpen focused WS winner I can remember, and they rode a dominant start from Cueto and 2 really good starts from Volquez.

[wadesworld]

If you believe your statement, you should stick to posting about basketball or beer.

Or being a mascot.