Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?

[tower912]

BTW, is your handle the percentage you think he will shoot this year?

[MU82]

Please point out where anybody said they are expecting Howard to shoot 60% from 3 this year.

It was me.

I said: If Markus doesn't shoot at least 60% from 3-point range, he will have proven to be a no-talent hack who should choose a new sport. I mean ... 59% ... what an effen loser he'd be!

[Silkk the Shaka]

Ditto to Brew's excellent post.

Did we forget that Howard had one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NCAA history? If he follows it up by shooting 60%, that would make him the greatest three-point shooter in the history of college basketball.

So that's the expectations we want a 1918-year-old kid is you have to be the greatest ever? You just can't be outstanding but you have to be the greatest ever?

[1SE]

Let's just look at the past decade of shooters to qualify for the shooting title that made over 50% of their three-point attempts, and see how they did the following year. I am only including players that returned for another season after they made 50+%. Scroll the code box to see all 28 qualifying players of the past decade.

Code Select Expand

Season     Player            50+% Season     Next Season

2007       Jeremy Crouch       50.0%           39.9%
           Josh Carter         50.0%           38.0%
           John Baumann        50.9%           30.1%
           Marquis Ford        51.0%           28.0%
           Shaun Green         51.2%           37.6%
           Tyler Billings      51.7%           34.5%
           Harris Mansell      53.0%           44.7%
2008       Alan Voskuil        50.0%           43.5%
           Brandis Raley-Ross  51.4%           31.4%
           Darren Collison     52.5%           39.4%
           Kyle Duncan         55.1%           38.8%
2009       Michael Roll        51.5%           42.6%
           TJ Campbell         53.1%           42.6%
2010       Brian Green         50.0%           46.9%
           Mickey McConnell    51.0%           45.6%
2011       Khalid Mutakabbir   50.0%           29.7%
           Jordan Dyskstra     51.5%           47.3%
2012       Kris Davis          59.8%           33.1%
2013       Kasey Wilson        50.0%           36.3%
           John Schoof         50.7%           39.0%
           Will Barrett        51.6%           36.9%
2014       Nate Buss           50.0%           40.8%
           Brandon Pye         51.4%           40.5%
           Micah Mason         56.0%           44.5%
2015       Cornell Johnston    50.0%           38.1%
           James McGee         50.8%           41.8%
2016       Aaron Bodager       50.0%           34.8%
           Giddy Potts         50.3%           38.5%

So in the past decade, 28 qualifying players have made 50% or greater on threes and come back for a subsequent season. 17/28 shot under 40% the following season. Only 11 were able to break that 40% mark and of those only 3 hit 45+%. None were able to hit 50% again after a 50+% qualifying season, though Micah Mason did have consecutive 50% seasons but the first one was a non-qualifying season.

Just looking historically, over the past decade, not only does it indicate that it is highly unlikely Markus would follow up his 50+% qualifying season with an improvement (no one did), the odds are better than he falls below 40% than he is able to connect on 40+% again.

I sincerely hope he bucks the statistics and reaches the 60% mark, but it is far, far, far more likely that he will be in the 30s, and history would indicate that Howard shooting sub-30% (two did that) is more likely than shooting 60+%. All of your number projections are vastly off based off historical precedent.

My 2nd round and NBA bench warmer knowledge is admittedly sparse, but how many of these guys ever cracked a NBA roster? Maybe no M2NBA?

[Ardmore Mug]

 Darren Collison   Still playing in the NBA,....He was drafted by the Hornets in the first round with the 21st overall pick of the 2009 NBA draft.   And actually finished 4th for Rookie of the year...

[MU82]

Should probably put this on the Doom thread in the Superbar ...

Markus only went 3-for-6 from 3 in the exhibition at the Al vs. UWM.

Fifty effen percent. Ugh.

He sucks, and we might as well cancel the season.

[warriorchick]

Should probably put this on the Doom thread in the Superbar ...

Markus only went 3-for-6 from 3 in the exhibition at the Al vs. UWM.

Fifty effen percent. Ugh.

He sucks, and we might as well cancel the season.

[B. McBannerson]

Way too early indications, 60% no.  50% no.  That can all change when it gets real this week, but some struggles very early in two exhibition games.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Way too early indications, 60% no.  50% no.  That can all change when it gets real this week, but some struggles very early in two exhibition games.

Curious where the narrative that he shot poorly in the UWM scrimmage is coming from.

Wasn't he 3/6 from deep in that game?

[Jockey]

Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%

You really think he has a chance to be the greatest shooter of all time?

[Silkk the Shaka]

You really think he has a chance to be the greatest shooter of all time?

10% chance, yes. Which is low odds.

[brewcity77]

10% chance, yes. Which is low odds.

Actually those are very high odds. If there are 3500 players in the NCAA today (probably an underestimation) those odds are 350x the average. If you assume 3500 players every four years (likely another gross underestimation) his odds are 1575x that of the average player this millennium.

I'd argue that Markus having odds that are nearly 1600x that of the average player in the past 18 years of being the best of all time aren't just high, they are astronomically high.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Actually those are very high odds. If there are 3500 players in the NCAA today (probably an underestimation) those odds are 350x the average. If you assume 3500 players every four years (likely another gross underestimation) his odds are 1575x that of the average player this millennium.

I'd argue that Markus having odds that are nearly 1600x that of the average player in the past 18 years of being the best of all time aren't just high, they are astronomically high.

Not sure this math is right.

Regardless, he already had the 2nd best 3 point shooting year of all time. His odds to have the best shooting season of all time should be much, much higher than the average player.

[brewcity77]

I'm assuming 15,750 players this millennium. 1/15,750 = 0.0000635. that's 0.00635%. So if we assume Markus is 1000x more likely than the average player, shift the decimal three places and it's still 6.35%, which is well under your 10% figure.

Even with his great season, I doubt he's 1000x more likely than average. I'd say somewhere under 1% would be accurate.

[B. McBannerson]

Curious where the narrative that he shot poorly in the UWM scrimmage is coming from.

Wasn't he 3/6 from deep in that game?

To shoot 60% for the season, or even 50% for the season, requires consistency throughout. In the first two games he is shooting 23% from behind the arc.  It takes only a stinker in a game or two to torpedo the avg.

[Silkk the Shaka]

To shoot 60% for the season, or even 50% for the season, requires consistency throughout. In the first two games he is shooting 23% from behind the arc.  It takes only a stinker in a game or two to torpedo the avg.

So he didn't shoot poorly in the UWM scrimmage. Got it.

[tower912]

He was never going to shoot 60% from 3 for  season.    It was a quote from his brother.   

[TSmith34, Inc.]

15/49. 30.6%

He's halfway there already!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yeah, we need Markus to find his stroke. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

Yeah, we need Markus to find his stroke.

We need him to get healthy first. Leg and ankle dragging.

[copious1218]

15/49. 30.6%

He's halfway there already!

36 in a row gets him there!

[Vander Blue Man Group]

36 in a row gets him there!

Doable. 

[tower912]

Sounds great.  12 against Wisconsin, 12 against Vermont, 12 against Georgia.

[jsglow]

I've seen every minute Markus has played at home up until tonight.  Even all the way back to the private practice and then the UWM charity scrimmage his shot was a bit off.  I'm not worried as he is doing other things significantly better than last year.  If memory serves he got 'hot' one half out in Maui.  Perhaps tonight is the breakout.  Markus needs a little confidence in his long range stroke.

[DCHoopster]

Sounds great.  12 against Wisconsin, 12 against Vermont, 12 against Georgia.

Last year, MU had talented scorers all over the line-up, this year they do not.  Took a lot of open 3's last year, if he shoots 40% will be good.