Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?

[Herman Cain]

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2017/10/12/marquettes-howard-one-nations-top-shooters/751945001/

According to his brother, who oversees his offseason workouts, it is possible.   I admire his brother's optimism, but I think that being the top priority on the oppositions' defensive plan will impact the number and quality of looks he gets.      But hey, let's hope I am wrong and the elder Howard is right.

I think it will depend on the quality of the shots. As his brother pointed out in the article, Markus is learning to move the ball more and getting the ball back with an open look. So yes I think it is possible , especially if he can rack up some early success against the cupcakes.  The other thing he has going for him is that Rowsey and Sam are back as well, which will force defenses to be honest. Realistically anything north of 45 percent is still a fantastic year by any standard.

Markus continuing his form is one of the reasons I believe we will be 3rd in the Big East and making it to the second weekend of the tournament.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Let's just look at the past decade of shooters to qualify for the shooting title that made over 50% of their three-point attempts, and see how they did the following year. I am only including players that returned for another season after they made 50+%. Scroll the code box to see all 25 qualifying players of the past decade.

Code Select Expand

Season     Player            50+% Season     Next Season

2007       Jeremy Crouch       50.0%           39.9%
           Josh Carter         50.0%           38.0%
           John Baumann        50.9%           30.1%
           Marquis Ford        51.0%           28.0%
           Shaun Green         51.2%           37.6%
           Tyler Billings      51.7%           34.5%
           Harris Mansell      53.0%           44.7%
2008       Alan Voskuil        50.0%           43.5%
           Brandis Raley-Ross  51.4%           31.4%
           Darren Collison     52.5%           39.4%
           Kyle Duncan         55.1%           38.8%
2009       Michael Roll        51.5%           42.6%
           TJ Campbell         53.1%           42.6%
2010       Brian Green         50.0%           46.9%
           Mickey McConnell    51.0%           45.6%
2011       Khalid Mutakabbir   50.0%           29.7%
           Jordan Dyskstra     51.5%           47.3%
2012       Kris Davis          59.8%           33.1%
2013       Kasey Wilson        50.0%           36.3%
           John Schoof         50.7%           39.0%
           Will Barrett        51.6%           36.9%
2015       Cornell Johnston    50.0%           38.1%
           James McGee         50.8%           41.8%
2016       Aaron Bodager       50.0%           34.8%
           Giddy Potts         50.3%           38.5%

So in the past decade, 25 qualifying players have made 50% or greater on threes and come back for a subsequent season. 17/25 shot under 40% the following season. Only 8 were able to break that 40% mark and of those only 3 hit 45+%. None were able to hit 50% again after a 50+% qualifying season, though Micah Mason did have consecutive 50% seasons but the first one was a non-qualifying season.

Just looking historically, over the past decade, not only does it indicate that it is highly unlikely Markus would follow up his 50+% qualifying season with an improvement (no one did), the odds are better than he falls below 40% than he is able to connect on 40+% again.

I sincerely hope he bucks the statistics and reaches the 60% mark, but it is far, far, far more likely that he will be in the 30s, and history would indicate that Howard shooting sub-30% (two did that) is more likely than shooting 60+%. All of your number projections are vastly off based off historical precedent.

How many of those people were 17 year old freshmen who also shot 48% in the highest level of international play before entering college? Historical precedent does not apply to Markus. Again, my argument is not that he WILL shoot over 60% (I gave it a 10% chance), it was that there is not a chance in hell he's shooting sub 40.

[brewcity77]

How many of those people were 17 year old freshmen who also shot 48% in the highest level of international play before entering college? Historical precedent does not apply to Markus. Again, my argument is not that he WILL shoot over 60% (I gave it a 10% chance), it was that there is not a chance in hell he's shooting sub 40.

I'm sure you could have made up a silly exception for every single one of those guys. I'm sure the fans of their teams would've all said "they have perfect shooting form, there's no way their percentage will drop below 40%, they are still improving." Yet all of them shot worse the next year and the majority shot significantly worse.

JB is right that anything over 45% would be dancing in the streets type success. The safe assumption is somewhere in the 35-40 range. I'd love to see him do better, but it's silly to assume he will never drop below 40%. Very few are able to maintain that all four years. Hopefully Markus does, but don't be disappointed if he doesn't.

EDIT: Missed the 2014 players. Will adjust opening post to reflect those three, including Micah Mason.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I'm sure you could have made up a silly exception for every single one of those guys. I'm sure the fans of their teams would've all said "they have perfect shooting form, there's no way their percentage will drop below 40%, they are still improving." Yet all of them shot worse the next year and the majority shot significantly worse.

JB is right that anything over 45% would be dancing in the streets type success. The safe assumption is somewhere in the 35-40 range. I'd love to see him do better, but it's silly to assume he will never drop below 40%. Very few are able to maintain that all four years. Hopefully Markus does, but don't be disappointed if he doesn't.

With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.

Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.

Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I also doubt he shoots 60%.    As I said, being at the top of the scouting report means he is unlikely to get many wide open looks.   I agree with JB. (and that hurts)   Anything over 45% is great.

Gonna be a lot of shooters on scouting reports. If you're gonna double Markus, have fun with Rowsey dropping 10 threes on you.

[brewcity77]

With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.

Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.

Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.

So name recognition is your barometer for future success? You'd be wrong about them all being low-league guys. Shaun Green played for Utah, Raley-Ross for South Carolina, Voskuil for Texas Tech, and Roll for UCLA. And the past couple years, Giddy Potts has been a very well-known name. I would be shocked if any avid college basketball fan didn't know his name.

Maybe Markus will be over 40% his entire career. If he did, he would join Jordan Dykstra and James McGee as the only players in the past decade to shoot 50% in a single season and never dip below 40% in a four-year career. But again, the numbers indicate that is highly unlikely.

I understand why people have high expectations for Howard. He had a fantastic freshman year. So did Haanif Cheatham and Duane Wilson. Let's relax before we start declaring him an all-time great (and yes, assuming he never drops below 40% for his career is doing just that).

[brewcity77]

Gonna be a lot of shooters on scouting reports. If you're gonna double Markus, have fun with Rowsey dropping 10 threes on you.

I think both Rowsey and Hauser have a better chance of shooting 50+% this year than Howard does.

[2012 Warrior]

To me the question is do we want Howard shooting >50% again let alone 60%.  If he is shooting that high of a percentage I would prefer he takes a little more risk in his shots.  Not saying to take bad shots.  Its really the TS% argument that I look at.

[Jay Bee]

To me the question is do we want Howard shooting >50% again let alone 60%.  If he is shooting that high of a percentage I would prefer he takes a little more risk in his shots.  Not saying to take bad shots.  Its really the TS% argument that I look at.

TS no matta

[MU82]

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2017/10/12/marquettes-howard-one-nations-top-shooters/751945001/

According to his brother, who oversees his offseason workouts, it is possible. 

Only 60%? What a pessimist!

[B. McBannerson]

With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.

Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.

Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.

That's why they play the games because opinions are opinions, not facts.

[Silkk the Shaka]

That's why they play the games because opinions are opinions, not facts.

Thanks Chicos! Never would have known. Gonna bookmark this one in case I forget.

[MUBurrow]

With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.

Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.

Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.

So much of Novak's shooting success was predicated on his height, though. Yes, the stroke was as pure as anyone I've seen, but he had "open" shots that would have been characterized as contested for smaller players, and a smaller player wouldn't have gotten his "difficult" shots off at all. I think that Markus will have more difficulty in maintaining year-over-year consistency, because as the book gets out on him, he's more subject to shifting defenses and matching up against taller players than Novak, who playing the 4 at 6'10" almost never had to deal with taller defenders in college.

[TheyWereCones]

So much of Novak's shooting success was predicated on his height, though. Yes, the stroke was as pure as anyone I've seen, but he had "open" shots that would have been characterized as contested for smaller players, and a smaller player wouldn't have gotten his "difficult" shots off at all. I think that Markus will have more difficulty in maintaining year-over-year consistency, because as the book gets out on him, he's more subject to shifting defenses and matching up against taller players than Novak, who playing the 4 at 6'10" almost never had to deal with taller defenders in college.

While this is true, Novak also wasn't a threat to drive. Where Markus can set himself apart as one of our all-time elite scorers is by using his 3-point prowess to set up his midrange and driving game. If he can prove to do those things well too, he will add more value than Novak, who while an absolutely lights out shooter who I loved to watch, was mostly one dimensional.

[MUDPT]

FWIW, Hanner and SI predict 18.7 PPG this year.

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/10/16/top-100-scorers-player-rankings-projections

[MUDPT]

Rowsey at 17.4 PPG.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

A quick scan looks like Howard/Rowsey projected to be the 2nd highest scoring combo behind St. Bonnie's Mobley and Adams.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Howard at 18.7 and Rowsey at 17.4? Damn, sign me up for that.

For fun, here are the players on the list that we will see next season:

#4 Yante Maten (19.6)
#5 Marcus Foster (19.4)
#8 Trevon Bluiett (18.8)
#11 Bonzie Colson Jr (18.7)*
#18 Shamorie Ponds (17.8)
#26 Khadeen Carrington (17.3)
#27 Kelan Martin (17.3)
#32 Marcus LoVett Jr (16.7)
#36 Jalen Brunson (16.5)
#45 Desi Rodriguez (15.9)
#49 Ethan Happ (15.5)
#53 JP Macura (15.4)
#55 Angel Delgado (15.3)
#63 Rodney Bullock (15.1)
#84 Justin Tillman (14.6)
#85 Isaac Haas (14.6)
#88 Elijah Cain (14.5)
#89 Moritz Wagner (14.5)*

Keep in mind that this same formula projected like 5 points a game for Howard last season. Fun to look at, but not all that accurate.

[Windyplayer]

Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.

Must we go any further?

[naginiF]

To summarize:
<40% = panic!  MH is best case in a soph slump, worst case a bust.  Team has no offensive flow.
40%-45% = though there are a few that are panicking and calling for MH to be benched for Elliot *cough*Tex*cough*.  MH is still lights out and we're ecstatic about the offense
45%-55% = we're out of our minds as we're witnessing something truly special and we start to fret about the impact to 2018-19 of losing him as M2N conversation is on in full
55%+ = panic!  way too much of the offense is through MH, clearly the rest of the team is a house of cards

[Bocephys]

To summarize:
<40% = panic!  MH is best case in a soph slump, worst case a bust.  Team has no offensive flow.
40%-45% = though there are a few that are panicking and calling for MH to be benched for Elliot *cough*Tex*cough*.  MH is still lights out and we're ecstatic about the offense
45%-55% = we're out of our minds as we're witnessing something truly special and we start to fret about the impact to 2018-19 of losing him as M2N conversation is on in full
55%+ = panic!  way too much of the offense is through MH, clearly the rest of the team is a house of cards

Every scenario should have panic to be truly Scoop accurate.

[Tugg Speedman]

Thanks Brew--I think this put into perspective those who say "if MH ONLY shoots 45%, I'll be thrilled!"
If he does shoot 45%, he will do what approximately 12% of those who had the opportunity to do, did the following year. The numbers don't agree with MH shooting 50% or 45% this year.
That being said, let's do it MH!!

Ditto to Brew's excellent post.

Did we forget that Howard had one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NCAA history? If he follows it up by shooting 60%, that would make him the greatest three-point shooter in the history of college basketball.

So that's the expectations we want a 19-year-old kid is you have to be the greatest ever? You just can't be outstanding but you have to be the greatest ever?

[wadesworld]

Ditto to Brew's excellent post.

Did we forget that Howard had one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NCAA history? If he follows it up by shooting 60%, that would make him the greatest three-point shooter in the history of college basketball.

So that's the expectations we want a 19-year-old kid is you have to be the greatest ever? You just can't be outstanding but you have to be the greatest ever?

Please point out where anybody said they are expecting Howard to shoot 60% from 3 this year.

[tower912]

Just his brother.   

[Marcus92]

My favorite quote from his brother:

"The main thing we worked on is coming off screens. Different positioning on his shots, where he is going to get shots from. Using ball fakes, pump fakes; guys are going to be flying right by him. Working on the midrange. Also seeing the defense: Where is the extra pass? where can he pick up more assists?"

In other words, he's already thinking about getting more attention from the other team.

I think it's also worth noting that the above paragraph is the only time defense was mentioned in the entire article. If Markus has worked on his D in the offseason, he sure hasn't talked about it.