Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?

[tower912]

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2017/10/12/marquettes-howard-one-nations-top-shooters/751945001/

According to his brother, who oversees his offseason workouts, it is possible.   I admire his brother's optimism, but I think that being the top priority on the oppositions' defensive plan will impact the number and quality of looks he gets.      But hey, let's hope I am wrong and the elder Howard is right. 

[4everwarriors]

No, hey?

[brewcity77]

I think Howard shooting sub-40% is more likely than shooting 60% or greater. It's rare that a guy hits 50+% and follows it up with anything remotely comparable.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I think Howard shooting sub-40% is more likely than shooting 60% or greater. It's rare that a guy hits 50+% and follows it up with anything remotely comparable.

Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%

[MuMark]

Nobody with enough makes to qualify has ever done it as far as I can tell so it seems unlikely ..... I remain hopeful that Markus becomes the greatest shooter in NCAA history and proves me wrong.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/leaders/fg3-pct-player-yearly.html

[wadesworld]

Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%

Flip that to 10% chance to shoot under 40% and 0.1% chance to shoot over 60% and then subtract 0.1% chance from both of those and you got it.

[We R Final Four]

Ha--exactly. That's the formula right there.

[Loose Cannon]

   Well 6 out of 10 is Difficult but not Impossible.

[MuMark]

It's not impossible for Ners to fall in love with Derrick Wilson ether but seems about as likely as Markus shooting 60% from 3 for an entire season .......

[TinyTimsLittleBrother]

Maybe he goes 6 for his first 10 and then blows out a knee?

[Silkk the Shaka]

He shot 57% in conference play last year and with his work ethic + intelligence, there's not a chance in hell he shoots under 40%, even with the inevitably increased focus from opposing defenses. I was being generous with the 0.1%.

[B. McBannerson]

I think Howard shooting sub-40% is more likely than shooting 60% or greater. It's rare that a guy hits 50+% and follows it up with anything remotely comparable.

^^^^^^^  This

[Jay Bee]

If he shoots at the same rate but over minutes and eclipses 45%, I'm dancing in the streets

[Loose Cannon]

It's not impossible for Ners to fall in love with Derrick Wilson ether but seems about as likely as Markus shooting 60% from 3 for an entire season .......

If I had the choice of the two, I'm still sticking with Markus.

[tower912]

I also doubt he shoots 60%.    As I said, being at the top of the scouting report means he is unlikely to get many wide open looks.   I agree with JB. (and that hurts)   Anything over 45% is great.

[We R Final Four]

 

   Well 6 out of 10 is Difficult but not Impossible.

Yes, very difficult, considering 60% has never happened for a season.

[brewcity77]

Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%

Let's just look at the past decade of shooters to qualify for the shooting title that made over 50% of their three-point attempts, and see how they did the following year. I am only including players that returned for another season after they made 50+%. Scroll the code box to see all 28 qualifying players of the past decade.

Code Select Expand

Season     Player            50+% Season     Next Season

2007       Jeremy Crouch       50.0%           39.9%
           Josh Carter         50.0%           38.0%
           John Baumann        50.9%           30.1%
           Marquis Ford        51.0%           28.0%
           Shaun Green         51.2%           37.6%
           Tyler Billings      51.7%           34.5%
           Harris Mansell      53.0%           44.7%
2008       Alan Voskuil        50.0%           43.5%
           Brandis Raley-Ross  51.4%           31.4%
           Darren Collison     52.5%           39.4%
           Kyle Duncan         55.1%           38.8%
2009       Michael Roll        51.5%           42.6%
           TJ Campbell         53.1%           42.6%
2010       Brian Green         50.0%           46.9%
           Mickey McConnell    51.0%           45.6%
2011       Khalid Mutakabbir   50.0%           29.7%
           Jordan Dyskstra     51.5%           47.3%
2012       Kris Davis          59.8%           33.1%
2013       Kasey Wilson        50.0%           36.3%
           John Schoof         50.7%           39.0%
           Will Barrett        51.6%           36.9%
2014       Nate Buss           50.0%           40.8%
           Brandon Pye         51.4%           40.5%
           Micah Mason         56.0%           44.5%
2015       Cornell Johnston    50.0%           38.1%
           James McGee         50.8%           41.8%
2016       Aaron Bodager       50.0%           34.8%
           Giddy Potts         50.3%           38.5%

So in the past decade, 28 qualifying players have made 50% or greater on threes and come back for a subsequent season. 17/28 shot under 40% the following season. Only 11 were able to break that 40% mark and of those only 3 hit 45+%. None were able to hit 50% again after a 50+% qualifying season, though Micah Mason did have consecutive 50% seasons but the first one was a non-qualifying season.

Just looking historically, over the past decade, not only does it indicate that it is highly unlikely Markus would follow up his 50+% qualifying season with an improvement (no one did), the odds are better than he falls below 40% than he is able to connect on 40+% again.

He shot 57% in conference play last year and with his work ethic + intelligence, there's not a chance in hell he shoots under 40%, even with the inevitably increased focus from opposing defenses. I was being generous with the 0.1%.

I sincerely hope he bucks the statistics and reaches the 60% mark, but it is far, far, far more likely that he will be in the 30s, and history would indicate that Howard shooting sub-30% (two did that) is more likely than shooting 60+%. All of your number projections are vastly off based off historical precedent.

[Loose Cannon]

?-(Yes, very difficult, considering 60% has never happened for a season.

Does that mean it will never Happen.

[brewcity77]

Does that mean it will never Happen.

It probably will, but my guess is it will come from either a freshman or a player that has not connected on 50% in the past. After you go for 50+%, every opponent knows to focus on that player, which makes it harder to match previous accomplishments. I think that Markus' freshman year will make it harder for him to ever hit 60%.

[We R Final Four]

Thanks Brew--I think this put into perspective those who say "if MH ONLY shoots 45%, I'll be thrilled!"
If he does shoot 45%, he will do what approximately 12% of those who had the opportunity to do, did the following year. The numbers don't agree with MH shooting 50% or 45% this year.
That being said, let's do it MH!!

[B. McBannerson]

I'll be happy with anything over 40%.  He's like going to come down a peg because Freshman year was such a great shooting year. 

Steve Novak was the best 3 point shooter in college I have ever seen.

Freshman year shot 50.5%
Sophomore year dipped down to 43%

[We R Final Four]

Does that mean it will never Happen.

Assuming this is a question, of course not. People get in trouble using absolutes like never.
60% has never happened.........anything is possible. Heck, let's see someone shoot 100%, hey?

[Loose Cannon]

Assuming this is a question, of course not. People get in trouble using absolutes like never.
60% has never happened.........anything is possible. Heck, let's see someone shoot 100%, hey?

One step at a time.  First break the 4 Minute mile.

[We R Final Four]

No one shooting at this clip has improved the following year. Never been done.

[MUEng92]

Steve Novak was the best 3 point shooter in college I have ever seen.

Freshman year shot 50.5%
Sophomore year dipped down to 43%

It seems like Steve may have benefited from a particular teammate's presence freshman year who wasn't there sophomore year