MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: tower912 on October 15, 2017, 06:36:59 PM

Title: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: tower912 on October 15, 2017, 06:36:59 PM
http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2017/10/12/marquettes-howard-one-nations-top-shooters/751945001/

According to his brother, who oversees his offseason workouts, it is possible.   I admire his brother's optimism, but I think that being the top priority on the oppositions' defensive plan will impact the number and quality of looks he gets.      But hey, let's hope I am wrong and the elder Howard is right. 
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: 4everwarriors on October 15, 2017, 06:38:18 PM
No, hey?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: brewcity77 on October 15, 2017, 06:48:22 PM
I think Howard shooting sub-40% is more likely than shooting 60% or greater. It's rare that a guy hits 50+% and follows it up with anything remotely comparable.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on October 15, 2017, 06:52:47 PM
I think Howard shooting sub-40% is more likely than shooting 60% or greater. It's rare that a guy hits 50+% and follows it up with anything remotely comparable.

Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MuMark on October 15, 2017, 07:02:33 PM
Nobody with enough makes to qualify has ever done it as far as I can tell so it seems unlikely ..... I remain hopeful that Markus becomes the greatest shooter in NCAA history and proves me wrong.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/leaders/fg3-pct-player-yearly.html
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: wadesworld on October 15, 2017, 07:03:18 PM
Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%

Flip that to 10% chance to shoot under 40% and 0.1% chance to shoot over 60% and then subtract 0.1% chance from both of those and you got it.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: We R Final Four on October 15, 2017, 07:05:32 PM
Ha--exactly. That's the formula right there.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Loose Cannon on October 15, 2017, 07:12:16 PM


   Well 6 out of 10 is Difficult but not Impossible.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MuMark on October 15, 2017, 07:23:38 PM
It's not impossible for Ners to fall in love with Derrick Wilson ether but seems about as likely as Markus shooting 60% from 3 for an entire season .......
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: TinyTimsLittleBrother on October 15, 2017, 07:34:17 PM
Maybe he goes 6 for his first 10 and then blows out a knee?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on October 15, 2017, 07:39:29 PM
He shot 57% in conference play last year and with his work ethic + intelligence, there's not a chance in hell he shoots under 40%, even with the inevitably increased focus from opposing defenses. I was being generous with the 0.1%.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: B. McBannerson on October 15, 2017, 07:42:52 PM
I think Howard shooting sub-40% is more likely than shooting 60% or greater. It's rare that a guy hits 50+% and follows it up with anything remotely comparable.


^^^^^^^  This
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Jay Bee on October 15, 2017, 07:43:12 PM
If he shoots at the same rate but over minutes and eclipses 45%, I'm dancing in the streets
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Loose Cannon on October 15, 2017, 07:50:33 PM
It's not impossible for Ners to fall in love with Derrick Wilson ether but seems about as likely as Markus shooting 60% from 3 for an entire season .......

If I had the choice of the two, I'm still sticking with Markus.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: tower912 on October 15, 2017, 07:57:39 PM
I also doubt he shoots 60%.    As I said, being at the top of the scouting report means he is unlikely to get many wide open looks.   I agree with JB. (and that hurts)   Anything over 45% is great.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: We R Final Four on October 15, 2017, 07:59:30 PM
 ?-(

   Well 6 out of 10 is Difficult but not Impossible.
Yes, very difficult, considering 60% has never happened for a season.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: brewcity77 on October 15, 2017, 08:00:02 PM
Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%

Let's just look at the past decade of shooters to qualify for the shooting title that made over 50% of their three-point attempts, and see how they did the following year. I am only including players that returned for another season after they made 50+%. Scroll the code box to see all 28 qualifying players of the past decade.

Code: [Select]
Season     Player            50+% Season     Next Season

2007       Jeremy Crouch       50.0%           39.9%
           Josh Carter         50.0%           38.0%
           John Baumann        50.9%           30.1%
           Marquis Ford        51.0%           28.0%
           Shaun Green         51.2%           37.6%
           Tyler Billings      51.7%           34.5%
           Harris Mansell      53.0%           44.7%
2008       Alan Voskuil        50.0%           43.5%
           Brandis Raley-Ross  51.4%           31.4%
           Darren Collison     52.5%           39.4%
           Kyle Duncan         55.1%           38.8%
2009       Michael Roll        51.5%           42.6%
           TJ Campbell         53.1%           42.6%
2010       Brian Green         50.0%           46.9%
           Mickey McConnell    51.0%           45.6%
2011       Khalid Mutakabbir   50.0%           29.7%
           Jordan Dyskstra     51.5%           47.3%
2012       Kris Davis          59.8%           33.1%
2013       Kasey Wilson        50.0%           36.3%
           John Schoof         50.7%           39.0%
           Will Barrett        51.6%           36.9%
2014       Nate Buss           50.0%           40.8%
           Brandon Pye         51.4%           40.5%
           Micah Mason         56.0%           44.5%
2015       Cornell Johnston    50.0%           38.1%
           James McGee         50.8%           41.8%
2016       Aaron Bodager       50.0%           34.8%
           Giddy Potts         50.3%           38.5%

So in the past decade, 28 qualifying players have made 50% or greater on threes and come back for a subsequent season. 17/28 shot under 40% the following season. Only 11 were able to break that 40% mark and of those only 3 hit 45+%. None were able to hit 50% again after a 50+% qualifying season, though Micah Mason did have consecutive 50% seasons but the first one was a non-qualifying season.

Just looking historically, over the past decade, not only does it indicate that it is highly unlikely Markus would follow up his 50+% qualifying season with an improvement (no one did), the odds are better than he falls below 40% than he is able to connect on 40+% again.

He shot 57% in conference play last year and with his work ethic + intelligence, there's not a chance in hell he shoots under 40%, even with the inevitably increased focus from opposing defenses. I was being generous with the 0.1%.

I sincerely hope he bucks the statistics and reaches the 60% mark, but it is far, far, far more likely that he will be in the 30s, and history would indicate that Howard shooting sub-30% (two did that) is more likely than shooting 60+%. All of your number projections are vastly off based off historical precedent.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Loose Cannon on October 15, 2017, 08:16:22 PM
?-(Yes, very difficult, considering 60% has never happened for a season.

Does that mean it will never Happen.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: brewcity77 on October 15, 2017, 08:19:55 PM
Does that mean it will never Happen.

It probably will, but my guess is it will come from either a freshman or a player that has not connected on 50% in the past. After you go for 50+%, every opponent knows to focus on that player, which makes it harder to match previous accomplishments. I think that Markus' freshman year will make it harder for him to ever hit 60%.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: We R Final Four on October 15, 2017, 08:20:40 PM
Thanks Brew--I think this put into perspective those who say "if MH ONLY shoots 45%, I'll be thrilled!"
If he does shoot 45%, he will do what approximately 12% of those who had the opportunity to do, did the following year. The numbers don't agree with MH shooting 50% or 45% this year.
That being said, let's do it MH!!
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: B. McBannerson on October 15, 2017, 08:28:24 PM
I'll be happy with anything over 40%.  He's like going to come down a peg because Freshman year was such a great shooting year. 

Steve Novak was the best 3 point shooter in college I have ever seen.

Freshman year shot 50.5%
Sophomore year dipped down to 43%

Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: We R Final Four on October 15, 2017, 08:31:59 PM
Does that mean it will never Happen.
Assuming this is a question, of course not. People get in trouble using absolutes like never.
60% has never happened.........anything is possible. Heck, let's see someone shoot 100%, hey?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Loose Cannon on October 15, 2017, 08:35:18 PM
Assuming this is a question, of course not. People get in trouble using absolutes like never.
60% has never happened.........anything is possible. Heck, let's see someone shoot 100%, hey?

One step at a time.  First break the 4 Minute mile.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: We R Final Four on October 15, 2017, 08:46:14 PM
No one shooting at this clip has improved the following year. Never been done.

Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MUEng92 on October 15, 2017, 08:57:33 PM
Steve Novak was the best 3 point shooter in college I have ever seen.

Freshman year shot 50.5%
Sophomore year dipped down to 43%
It seems like Steve may have benefited from a particular teammate’s presence freshman year who wasn’t there sophomore year
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Herman Cain on October 15, 2017, 09:00:11 PM
http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2017/10/12/marquettes-howard-one-nations-top-shooters/751945001/

According to his brother, who oversees his offseason workouts, it is possible.   I admire his brother's optimism, but I think that being the top priority on the oppositions' defensive plan will impact the number and quality of looks he gets.      But hey, let's hope I am wrong and the elder Howard is right.
I think it will depend on the quality of the shots. As his brother pointed out in the article, Markus is learning to move the ball more and getting the ball back with an open look. So yes I think it is possible , especially if he can rack up some early success against the cupcakes.  The other thing he has going for him is that Rowsey and Sam are back as well, which will force defenses to be honest. Realistically anything north of 45 percent is still a fantastic year by any standard.

Markus continuing his form is one of the reasons I believe we will be 3rd in the Big East and making it to the second weekend of the tournament.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on October 15, 2017, 09:00:35 PM
Let's just look at the past decade of shooters to qualify for the shooting title that made over 50% of their three-point attempts, and see how they did the following year. I am only including players that returned for another season after they made 50+%. Scroll the code box to see all 25 qualifying players of the past decade.

Code: [Select]
Season     Player            50+% Season     Next Season

2007       Jeremy Crouch       50.0%           39.9%
           Josh Carter         50.0%           38.0%
           John Baumann        50.9%           30.1%
           Marquis Ford        51.0%           28.0%
           Shaun Green         51.2%           37.6%
           Tyler Billings      51.7%           34.5%
           Harris Mansell      53.0%           44.7%
2008       Alan Voskuil        50.0%           43.5%
           Brandis Raley-Ross  51.4%           31.4%
           Darren Collison     52.5%           39.4%
           Kyle Duncan         55.1%           38.8%
2009       Michael Roll        51.5%           42.6%
           TJ Campbell         53.1%           42.6%
2010       Brian Green         50.0%           46.9%
           Mickey McConnell    51.0%           45.6%
2011       Khalid Mutakabbir   50.0%           29.7%
           Jordan Dyskstra     51.5%           47.3%
2012       Kris Davis          59.8%           33.1%
2013       Kasey Wilson        50.0%           36.3%
           John Schoof         50.7%           39.0%
           Will Barrett        51.6%           36.9%
2015       Cornell Johnston    50.0%           38.1%
           James McGee         50.8%           41.8%
2016       Aaron Bodager       50.0%           34.8%
           Giddy Potts         50.3%           38.5%

So in the past decade, 25 qualifying players have made 50% or greater on threes and come back for a subsequent season. 17/25 shot under 40% the following season. Only 8 were able to break that 40% mark and of those only 3 hit 45+%. None were able to hit 50% again after a 50+% qualifying season, though Micah Mason did have consecutive 50% seasons but the first one was a non-qualifying season.

Just looking historically, over the past decade, not only does it indicate that it is highly unlikely Markus would follow up his 50+% qualifying season with an improvement (no one did), the odds are better than he falls below 40% than he is able to connect on 40+% again.

I sincerely hope he bucks the statistics and reaches the 60% mark, but it is far, far, far more likely that he will be in the 30s, and history would indicate that Howard shooting sub-30% (two did that) is more likely than shooting 60+%. All of your number projections are vastly off based off historical precedent.

How many of those people were 17 year old freshmen who also shot 48% in the highest level of international play before entering college? Historical precedent does not apply to Markus. Again, my argument is not that he WILL shoot over 60% (I gave it a 10% chance), it was that there is not a chance in hell he's shooting sub 40.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: brewcity77 on October 15, 2017, 09:15:11 PM
How many of those people were 17 year old freshmen who also shot 48% in the highest level of international play before entering college? Historical precedent does not apply to Markus. Again, my argument is not that he WILL shoot over 60% (I gave it a 10% chance), it was that there is not a chance in hell he's shooting sub 40.

I'm sure you could have made up a silly exception for every single one of those guys. I'm sure the fans of their teams would've all said "they have perfect shooting form, there's no way their percentage will drop below 40%, they are still improving." Yet all of them shot worse the next year and the majority shot significantly worse.

JB is right that anything over 45% would be dancing in the streets type success. The safe assumption is somewhere in the 35-40 range. I'd love to see him do better, but it's silly to assume he will never drop below 40%. Very few are able to maintain that all four years. Hopefully Markus does, but don't be disappointed if he doesn't.

EDIT: Missed the 2014 players. Will adjust opening post to reflect those three, including Micah Mason.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on October 15, 2017, 09:25:26 PM
I'm sure you could have made up a silly exception for every single one of those guys. I'm sure the fans of their teams would've all said "they have perfect shooting form, there's no way their percentage will drop below 40%, they are still improving." Yet all of them shot worse the next year and the majority shot significantly worse.

JB is right that anything over 45% would be dancing in the streets type success. The safe assumption is somewhere in the 35-40 range. I'd love to see him do better, but it's silly to assume he will never drop below 40%. Very few are able to maintain that all four years. Hopefully Markus does, but don't be disappointed if he doesn't.

With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.

Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.

Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on October 15, 2017, 09:36:59 PM
I also doubt he shoots 60%.    As I said, being at the top of the scouting report means he is unlikely to get many wide open looks.   I agree with JB. (and that hurts)   Anything over 45% is great.

Gonna be a lot of shooters on scouting reports. If you’re gonna double Markus, have fun with Rowsey dropping 10 threes on you.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: brewcity77 on October 15, 2017, 09:43:27 PM
With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.

Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.

Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.

So name recognition is your barometer for future success? You'd be wrong about them all being low-league guys. Shaun Green played for Utah, Raley-Ross for South Carolina, Voskuil for Texas Tech, and Roll for UCLA. And the past couple years, Giddy Potts has been a very well-known name. I would be shocked if any avid college basketball fan didn't know his name.

Maybe Markus will be over 40% his entire career. If he did, he would join Jordan Dykstra and James McGee as the only players in the past decade to shoot 50% in a single season and never dip below 40% in a four-year career. But again, the numbers indicate that is highly unlikely.

I understand why people have high expectations for Howard. He had a fantastic freshman year. So did Haanif Cheatham and Duane Wilson. Let's relax before we start declaring him an all-time great (and yes, assuming he never drops below 40% for his career is doing just that).
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: brewcity77 on October 15, 2017, 09:44:16 PM
Gonna be a lot of shooters on scouting reports. If you’re gonna double Markus, have fun with Rowsey dropping 10 threes on you.

I think both Rowsey and Hauser have a better chance of shooting 50+% this year than Howard does.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: 2012 Warrior on October 15, 2017, 09:51:19 PM
To me the question is do we want Howard shooting >50% again let alone 60%.  If he is shooting that high of a percentage I would prefer he takes a little more risk in his shots.  Not saying to take bad shots.  Its really the TS% argument that I look at.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Jay Bee on October 15, 2017, 09:52:27 PM
To me the question is do we want Howard shooting >50% again let alone 60%.  If he is shooting that high of a percentage I would prefer he takes a little more risk in his shots.  Not saying to take bad shots.  Its really the TS% argument that I look at.

TS no matta
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MU82 on October 15, 2017, 10:49:01 PM
http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2017/10/12/marquettes-howard-one-nations-top-shooters/751945001/

According to his brother, who oversees his offseason workouts, it is possible. 

Only 60%? What a pessimist!
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: B. McBannerson on October 16, 2017, 09:16:43 AM
With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.

Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.

Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.

That's why they play the games because opinions are opinions, not facts.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on October 16, 2017, 09:39:01 AM
That's why they play the games because opinions are opinions, not facts.

Thanks Chicos! Never would have known. Gonna bookmark this one in case I forget.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MUBurrow on October 16, 2017, 10:24:53 AM
With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.

Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.

Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.

So much of Novak's shooting success was predicated on his height, though. Yes, the stroke was as pure as anyone I've seen, but he had "open" shots that would have been characterized as contested for smaller players, and a smaller player wouldn't have gotten his "difficult" shots off at all. I think that Markus will have more difficulty in maintaining year-over-year consistency, because as the book gets out on him, he's more subject to shifting defenses and matching up against taller players than Novak, who playing the 4 at 6'10" almost never had to deal with taller defenders in college.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: TheyWereCones on October 16, 2017, 11:16:08 AM
So much of Novak's shooting success was predicated on his height, though. Yes, the stroke was as pure as anyone I've seen, but he had "open" shots that would have been characterized as contested for smaller players, and a smaller player wouldn't have gotten his "difficult" shots off at all. I think that Markus will have more difficulty in maintaining year-over-year consistency, because as the book gets out on him, he's more subject to shifting defenses and matching up against taller players than Novak, who playing the 4 at 6'10" almost never had to deal with taller defenders in college.

While this is true, Novak also wasn't a threat to drive. Where Markus can set himself apart as one of our all-time elite scorers is by using his 3-point prowess to set up his midrange and driving game. If he can prove to do those things well too, he will add more value than Novak, who while an absolutely lights out shooter who I loved to watch, was mostly one dimensional.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MUDPT on October 16, 2017, 11:32:17 AM
FWIW, Hanner and SI predict 18.7 PPG this year.

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/10/16/top-100-scorers-player-rankings-projections
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MUDPT on October 16, 2017, 11:33:21 AM
Rowsey at 17.4 PPG.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on October 16, 2017, 11:43:39 AM
A quick scan looks like Howard/Rowsey projected to be the 2nd highest scoring combo behind St. Bonnie's Mobley and Adams.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on October 16, 2017, 12:16:41 PM
Howard at 18.7 and Rowsey at 17.4? Damn, sign me up for that.

For fun, here are the players on the list that we will see next season:

#4 Yante Maten (19.6)
#5 Marcus Foster (19.4)
#8 Trevon Bluiett (18.8)
#11 Bonzie Colson Jr (18.7)*
#18 Shamorie Ponds (17.8)
#26 Khadeen Carrington (17.3)
#27 Kelan Martin (17.3)
#32 Marcus LoVett Jr (16.7)
#36 Jalen Brunson (16.5)
#45 Desi Rodriguez (15.9)
#49 Ethan Happ (15.5)
#53 JP Macura (15.4)
#55 Angel Delgado (15.3)
#63 Rodney Bullock (15.1)
#84 Justin Tillman (14.6)
#85 Isaac Haas (14.6)
#88 Elijah Cain (14.5)
#89 Moritz Wagner (14.5)*

Keep in mind that this same formula projected like 5 points a game for Howard last season. Fun to look at, but not all that accurate.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Windyplayer on October 16, 2017, 02:15:39 PM
Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.
Must we go any further?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: naginiF on October 16, 2017, 04:45:57 PM
To summarize:
<40% = panic!  MH is best case in a soph slump, worst case a bust.  Team has no offensive flow.
40%-45% = though there are a few that are panicking and calling for MH to be benched for Elliot *cough*Tex*cough*.  MH is still lights out and we're ecstatic about the offense
45%-55% = we're out of our minds as we're witnessing something truly special and we start to fret about the impact to 2018-19 of losing him as M2N conversation is on in full
55%+ = panic!  way too much of the offense is through MH, clearly the rest of the team is a house of cards

Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Bocephys on October 16, 2017, 05:00:22 PM
To summarize:
<40% = panic!  MH is best case in a soph slump, worst case a bust.  Team has no offensive flow.
40%-45% = though there are a few that are panicking and calling for MH to be benched for Elliot *cough*Tex*cough*.  MH is still lights out and we're ecstatic about the offense
45%-55% = we're out of our minds as we're witnessing something truly special and we start to fret about the impact to 2018-19 of losing him as M2N conversation is on in full
55%+ = panic!  way too much of the offense is through MH, clearly the rest of the team is a house of cards

Every scenario should have panic to be truly Scoop accurate.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Tugg Speedman on October 17, 2017, 06:52:29 AM
Thanks Brew--I think this put into perspective those who say "if MH ONLY shoots 45%, I'll be thrilled!"
If he does shoot 45%, he will do what approximately 12% of those who had the opportunity to do, did the following year. The numbers don't agree with MH shooting 50% or 45% this year.
That being said, let's do it MH!!

Ditto to Brew’s excellent post.

Did we forget that Howard had one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NCAA history? If he follows it up by shooting 60%, that would make him the greatest three-point shooter in the history of college basketball.

So that’s the expectations we want a 19-year-old kid is you have to be the greatest ever? You just can’t be outstanding but you have to be the greatest ever?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: wadesworld on October 17, 2017, 07:59:26 AM
Ditto to Brew’s excellent post.

Did we forget that Howard had one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NCAA history? If he follows it up by shooting 60%, that would make him the greatest three-point shooter in the history of college basketball.

So that’s the expectations we want a 19-year-old kid is you have to be the greatest ever? You just can’t be outstanding but you have to be the greatest ever?

Please point out where anybody said they are expecting Howard to shoot 60% from 3 this year.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: tower912 on October 17, 2017, 08:42:40 AM
Just his brother.   
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Marcus92 on October 17, 2017, 02:57:07 PM
My favorite quote from his brother:

"The main thing we worked on is coming off screens. Different positioning on his shots, where he is going to get shots from. Using ball fakes, pump fakes; guys are going to be flying right by him. Working on the midrange. Also seeing the defense: Where is the extra pass? where can he pick up more assists?"

In other words, he's already thinking about getting more attention from the other team.

I think it's also worth noting that the above paragraph is the only time defense was mentioned in the entire article. If Markus has worked on his D in the offseason, he sure hasn't talked about it.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: tower912 on October 17, 2017, 03:09:17 PM
BTW, is your handle the percentage you think he will shoot this year?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MU82 on October 17, 2017, 03:18:06 PM
Please point out where anybody said they are expecting Howard to shoot 60% from 3 this year.

It was me.

I said: If Markus doesn't shoot at least 60% from 3-point range, he will have proven to be a no-talent hack who should choose a new sport. I mean ... 59% ... what an effen loser he'd be!
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on October 17, 2017, 03:26:50 PM
Ditto to Brew’s excellent post.

Did we forget that Howard had one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NCAA history? If he follows it up by shooting 60%, that would make him the greatest three-point shooter in the history of college basketball.

So that’s the expectations we want a 1918-year-old kid is you have to be the greatest ever? You just can’t be outstanding but you have to be the greatest ever?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: 1SE on October 21, 2017, 09:44:00 AM
Let's just look at the past decade of shooters to qualify for the shooting title that made over 50% of their three-point attempts, and see how they did the following year. I am only including players that returned for another season after they made 50+%. Scroll the code box to see all 28 qualifying players of the past decade.

Code: [Select]
Season     Player            50+% Season     Next Season

2007       Jeremy Crouch       50.0%           39.9%
           Josh Carter         50.0%           38.0%
           John Baumann        50.9%           30.1%
           Marquis Ford        51.0%           28.0%
           Shaun Green         51.2%           37.6%
           Tyler Billings      51.7%           34.5%
           Harris Mansell      53.0%           44.7%
2008       Alan Voskuil        50.0%           43.5%
           Brandis Raley-Ross  51.4%           31.4%
           Darren Collison     52.5%           39.4%
           Kyle Duncan         55.1%           38.8%
2009       Michael Roll        51.5%           42.6%
           TJ Campbell         53.1%           42.6%
2010       Brian Green         50.0%           46.9%
           Mickey McConnell    51.0%           45.6%
2011       Khalid Mutakabbir   50.0%           29.7%
           Jordan Dyskstra     51.5%           47.3%
2012       Kris Davis          59.8%           33.1%
2013       Kasey Wilson        50.0%           36.3%
           John Schoof         50.7%           39.0%
           Will Barrett        51.6%           36.9%
2014       Nate Buss           50.0%           40.8%
           Brandon Pye         51.4%           40.5%
           Micah Mason         56.0%           44.5%
2015       Cornell Johnston    50.0%           38.1%
           James McGee         50.8%           41.8%
2016       Aaron Bodager       50.0%           34.8%
           Giddy Potts         50.3%           38.5%

So in the past decade, 28 qualifying players have made 50% or greater on threes and come back for a subsequent season. 17/28 shot under 40% the following season. Only 11 were able to break that 40% mark and of those only 3 hit 45+%. None were able to hit 50% again after a 50+% qualifying season, though Micah Mason did have consecutive 50% seasons but the first one was a non-qualifying season.

Just looking historically, over the past decade, not only does it indicate that it is highly unlikely Markus would follow up his 50+% qualifying season with an improvement (no one did), the odds are better than he falls below 40% than he is able to connect on 40+% again.

I sincerely hope he bucks the statistics and reaches the 60% mark, but it is far, far, far more likely that he will be in the 30s, and history would indicate that Howard shooting sub-30% (two did that) is more likely than shooting 60+%. All of your number projections are vastly off based off historical precedent.

My 2nd round and NBA bench warmer knowledge is admittedly sparse, but how many of these guys ever cracked a NBA roster? Maybe no M2NBA?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Ardmore Mug on October 21, 2017, 11:46:55 AM
 Darren Collison   Still playing in the NBA,....He was drafted by the Hornets in the first round with the 21st overall pick of the 2009 NBA draft.   And actually finished 4th for Rookie of the year... 8-)
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MU82 on October 22, 2017, 09:48:00 PM
Should probably put this on the Doom thread in the Superbar ...

Markus only went 3-for-6 from 3 in the exhibition at the Al vs. UWM.

Fifty effen percent. Ugh.

He sucks, and we might as well cancel the season.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: warriorchick on October 22, 2017, 10:05:07 PM
Should probably put this on the Doom thread in the Superbar ...

Markus only went 3-for-6 from 3 in the exhibition at the Al vs. UWM.

Fifty effen percent. Ugh.

He sucks, and we might as well cancel the season.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/JPKqrPuFGQ4cE/200.gif)
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: B. McBannerson on November 06, 2017, 09:49:22 AM
Way too early indications, 60% no.  50% no.  That can all change when it gets real this week, but some struggles very early in two exhibition games.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 06, 2017, 10:34:12 AM
Way too early indications, 60% no.  50% no.  That can all change when it gets real this week, but some struggles very early in two exhibition games.

Curious where the narrative that he shot poorly in the UWM scrimmage is coming from.

Wasn't he 3/6 from deep in that game?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Jockey on November 06, 2017, 10:47:58 AM
Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%

You really think he has a chance to be the greatest shooter of all time?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 06, 2017, 11:01:52 AM
You really think he has a chance to be the greatest shooter of all time?

10% chance, yes. Which is low odds.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: brewcity77 on November 06, 2017, 12:29:53 PM
10% chance, yes. Which is low odds.

Actually those are very high odds. If there are 3500 players in the NCAA today (probably an underestimation) those odds are 350x the average. If you assume 3500 players every four years (likely another gross underestimation) his odds are 1575x that of the average player this millennium.

I'd argue that Markus having odds that are nearly 1600x that of the average player in the past 18 years of being the best of all time aren't just high, they are astronomically high.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 06, 2017, 01:06:27 PM
Actually those are very high odds. If there are 3500 players in the NCAA today (probably an underestimation) those odds are 350x the average. If you assume 3500 players every four years (likely another gross underestimation) his odds are 1575x that of the average player this millennium.

I'd argue that Markus having odds that are nearly 1600x that of the average player in the past 18 years of being the best of all time aren't just high, they are astronomically high.

Not sure this math is right.

Regardless, he already had the 2nd best 3 point shooting year of all time. His odds to have the best shooting season of all time should be much, much higher than the average player.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: brewcity77 on November 06, 2017, 01:16:16 PM
I'm assuming 15,750 players this millennium. 1/15,750 = 0.0000635. that's 0.00635%. So if we assume Markus is 1000x more likely than the average player, shift the decimal three places and it's still 6.35%, which is well under your 10% figure.

Even with his great season, I doubt he's 1000x more likely than average. I'd say somewhere under 1% would be accurate.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: B. McBannerson on November 07, 2017, 09:10:57 AM
Curious where the narrative that he shot poorly in the UWM scrimmage is coming from.

Wasn't he 3/6 from deep in that game?

To shoot 60% for the season, or even 50% for the season, requires consistency throughout. In the first two games he is shooting 23% from behind the arc.  It takes only a stinker in a game or two to torpedo the avg.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 07, 2017, 09:31:47 AM
To shoot 60% for the season, or even 50% for the season, requires consistency throughout. In the first two games he is shooting 23% from behind the arc.  It takes only a stinker in a game or two to torpedo the avg.

So he didn't shoot poorly in the UWM scrimmage. Got it.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: tower912 on November 07, 2017, 10:22:31 AM
He was never going to shoot 60% from 3 for  season.    It was a quote from his brother.   
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: TSmith34, Inc. on November 29, 2017, 01:04:34 PM
15/49. 30.6%

He's halfway there already!
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on November 29, 2017, 01:12:13 PM
Yeah, we need Markus to find his stroke. 
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on November 29, 2017, 01:49:45 PM
Yeah, we need Markus to find his stroke.

We need him to get healthy first. Leg and ankle dragging.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: copious1218 on November 29, 2017, 03:57:44 PM
15/49. 30.6%

He's halfway there already!

36 in a row gets him there!
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Vander Blue Man Group on November 29, 2017, 04:01:29 PM
36 in a row gets him there!

Doable. 
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: tower912 on November 29, 2017, 04:02:16 PM
Sounds great.  12 against Wisconsin, 12 against Vermont, 12 against Georgia.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: jsglow on November 29, 2017, 04:04:21 PM
I've seen every minute Markus has played at home up until tonight.  Even all the way back to the private practice and then the UWM charity scrimmage his shot was a bit off.  I'm not worried as he is doing other things significantly better than last year.  If memory serves he got 'hot' one half out in Maui.  Perhaps tonight is the breakout.  Markus needs a little confidence in his long range stroke.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: DCHoopster on November 29, 2017, 04:13:02 PM
Sounds great.  12 against Wisconsin, 12 against Vermont, 12 against Georgia.

Last year, MU had talented scorers all over the line-up, this year they do not.  Took a lot of open 3's last year, if he shoots 40% will be good.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Golden Avalanche on November 29, 2017, 04:37:58 PM
We need him to get healthy first. Leg and ankle dragging.

Get up by 25 early tonight and start the resting program for Howard during these cupcakes. His health issues are going to burn us in February.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: RJax55 on November 29, 2017, 04:56:25 PM
Get up by 25 early tonight and start the resting program for Howard during these cupcakes. His health issues are going to burn us in February.

Why even play him tonight?

Chicago St. is very likely to be the worst team we play all year. Rest him and get him ready for the next three games.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 29, 2017, 04:59:05 PM
Get up by 25 early tonight and start the resting program for Howard during these cupcakes. His health issues are going to burn us in February.

If he's hurt and his playing tonight will burn us in February why is he suiting up tonight? I mean, Chicago St...c'mon.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: GGGG on November 29, 2017, 05:01:59 PM
If he can play without further injury, it’s no big deal.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 29, 2017, 05:08:36 PM
If he can play without further injury, it’s no big deal.

I agree, but 'Lanche is saying that's not the case.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MuMark on November 29, 2017, 05:40:05 PM
Why even play him tonight?

Chicago St. is very likely to be the worst team we play all year. Rest him and get him ready for the next three games.

Because we only have 3 guards.........
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: RJax55 on November 29, 2017, 05:46:47 PM
Because we only have 3 guards.........

Thats enough to get past Chicago St.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: MuMark on November 29, 2017, 05:57:30 PM
But 2 may be not......

People need to relax.....if he is healthy enough to play he is going to play......I'm sure Wojo will watch his minutes if he is hurting and the score allows it.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: 4everwarriors on November 29, 2017, 06:28:02 PM
Yeah, we need Markus to find his stroke.


Ya reely hada go der, hey?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on November 29, 2017, 07:30:22 PM

Ya reely hada go der, hey?

You disagree? Or gonna poke fun at the word stroke?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: TSmith34, Inc. on November 29, 2017, 08:30:29 PM
36 in a row gets him there!
32 to go!
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Mr. Sand-Knit on November 29, 2017, 09:18:21 PM
8-10 dont count him out
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: CubillanSandwich on November 29, 2017, 09:20:34 PM
Up to 39%
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Tugg Speedman on November 29, 2017, 09:26:03 PM
Heard this stat during Maui and have not seen it here ...

Andrew Rowsey is #2 among current college basketball players made threes for a career.  #1 is Jordan Howard, Markus' older brother at Central Arkansas
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 29, 2017, 09:44:59 PM
Up to 39%

41% now

Pretty sure that's an MU record for made 3s in a game (breaking his own that he tied)

LOL at the "I told you sos" 6 games into the season

#M2N
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 29, 2017, 09:46:24 PM
Get up by 25 early tonight and start the resting program for Howard during these cupcakes. His health issues are going to burn us in February.

Still in up 25 with under 4 to go. Wojo must not care about February.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Golden Avalanche on November 30, 2017, 08:59:55 PM
Still in up 25 with under 4 to go. Wojo must not care about February.

Are you personally offended by my opinion that we should rest Howard any chance we get?
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: brewcity77 on April 03, 2018, 09:50:19 PM
Was just looking back through this thread. Kudos to Howard for cracking 40%, which was where I hoped he would be. Clearly 60% was never all that realistic.

To put into perspective where Markus was on the 40 vs 60 possibilities, had he missed 2 of his makes this year, he would've been under 40%. To crack 60, he would have needed to make an additional 54 of his three point attempts.

Someone may well get to 60%, but I'm pretty sure it won't be Markus Howard, and anything in the 40+% range is something to be celebrated.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: DoggyDaddy on April 04, 2018, 07:33:25 AM
With Hauser and Hauser on the wings, the window may open for better looks next year beyond the arc. I say his % goes up not down, maybe not 60 but back to +50. Also his assists go up a little.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: tower912 on April 04, 2018, 07:36:27 AM
I think the only one who ever said 60% was possible was his brother the coach.  Just like I don't expect Cain to shoot 57% from 3 next year as he will actually be on the scouting report for the other team.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on April 04, 2018, 08:47:42 AM
Was just looking back through this thread. Kudos to Howard for cracking 40%, which was where I hoped he would be. Clearly 60% was never all that realistic.

To put into perspective where Markus was on the 40 vs 60 possibilities, had he missed 2 of his makes this year, he would've been under 40%. To crack 60, he would have needed to make an additional 54 of his three point attempts.

Someone may well get to 60%, but I'm pretty sure it won't be Markus Howard, and anything in the 40+% range is something to be celebrated.

Haha I told you there was a 0% chance he'd shoot under 40% from 3!

40% on high volume is great regardless, and I think we'll see his numbers go up next year with a more balanced attack.
Title: Re: Could Markus shoot 60% from 3?
Post by: brewcity77 on April 04, 2018, 11:05:18 AM
Haha I told you there was a 0% chance he'd shoot under 40% from 3!

40% on high volume is great regardless, and I think we'll see his numbers go up next year with a more balanced attack.

I do think he can improve that percentage next year. Considering he set a new single game record (and then equalled it) for three point makes in a game and despite the dip in percentage, he is still considered an elite shooter by most anyone.