Beating Xavier

[brewcity77]

So for our next trick, we need to beat #5 Xavier! The Musketeers have only lost 4 times all season and are still in the running for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have multiple deep threats, some punishing bigs inside, and are simply one of the best teams in the country. I know 'Nova won the regular season, but my personal opinion is that Xavier is the Big East's best bet to make the Final Four and cut down the nets in Houston.

How do we beat such a foe? Well, it'll probably take a bit of luck, but there are a few other things to focus on that will give us the best chance of pulling an upset.

Attack Inside

Conventional wisdom would point to hot three-point shooting, but in their four losses, Xavier's opponents have been all over the board. Creighton beat them soundly despite 23%  beyond the arc. Both Georgetown (40%) and Seton Hall (37%) had only slightly above average days from deep, while Villanova (52%) scorched the nets.

However, all four teams that beat Xavier were highly efficient inside. Seton Hall's duo of Angel Delgado (8/11) and Dezi Rodriguez (8/14) led the way to an overall 54.5% shooting performance inside the arc. That was 6 points higher than SHU's average, but the lowest inside shooting percentage by a team to beat Xavier. Georgetown was at 61.5%, Creighton at 62.5%, and Villanova was again scorching at 71.9%.

For Marquette, this means three things. First, they need to feed the post. Keep Luke on the floor and allow him to attack the rim with his hook. Second, Henry needs to settle into his usual mid-range shots. Look for the elbow jumper, anything in the 10-15 foot range where he is so lethal and his size makes him a mismatch. Third, and perhaps most difficult considering the zone, we need our bigs to seal lanes so that JJ, Duane, and Haani can drive to the rim.

Xavier is a great team defending the three, but only average at defending the two. Their zone allows them to hide that weakness. Attack the zone going forward and you can do damage.

Limit Free Throws

The Musketeers get to the line an average of 25.5 times per game. Sumner, Reynolds, and Farr excel at drawing fouls. And everyone except Reynolds in their primary rotation hits 74.1% or better from the line, so when they are drawing fouls, they are also getting points.

Further, XU is able to use this to foul people out. In both games against Marquette, we had two players foul out. The four teams to beat Xavier had zero players foul out combined. Villanova allowed Xavier to get to the line 26 times, about their average, but with 'Nova's hot shooting, it didn't matter. The other three teams only allowed XU to get to the line an average of 18 times per game.

I went through all of Xavier's wins this season, and of their 26 wins, they were able to foul multiple members of the opposing team out on 12 occasions. On another 3 occasions, they fouled one guy out. So in 15/26 wins, the opponents had fewer players available at the end. We absolutely need our guys (looking at you, Luke) to stay out of foul trouble if we want to have a chance at the end.

Get on Them Early

At halftime, Villanova led by 18, Georgetown led by 6, Creighton led by 10, and Seton Hall led by 19. Marquette had a 4-point lead at Cintas but couldn't hold on when X stormed back. At some point, they are going to make a run. We didn't have enough of a cushion to withstand it. We need to come out, get on top of them, and weather the storm when it comes.

Xavier has led at halftime 24 times this season. In those games, they are 24-0. They have only trailed at the half 6 times, and they are 2-4 in those games. The wins were over us and Wake Forest. If you want to beat X, you have to get out to a good start. They aren't the kind of team you can come back on because the zone prevents easy shots in the lane and their three-point defense is excellent.

[GGGG]

I think Marquette having played last night has a good chance to get off to a strong start early.  Trouble will be holding a lead late.

[fjm]

Well done sir brew

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Get on Them Early

We have an advantage here by being on the floor last night.  How many times in the BET does the lower seed seem to be a really tough out on day 2 because the first night jitters are gone and the flow of the game comes easier.

[Marcus92]

Great points and analysis. But you forgot one:

Pray.

[fjm]

We have an advantage here by being on the floor last night.  How many times in the BET does the lower seed seem to be a really tough out on day 2 because the first night jitters are gone and the flow of the game comes easier.

This almost goes with most if not all sports tournaments. The lower seeds or those that played a day earlier may be more "tired" but they are coming off a win, with confidence, with experience on how the court/officals will play, jitters are gone for the most part.
Look at how "wild cards" play in football or baseball. You have upsets like crazy in high school sports when the team that had the "bye" gets beat by the underdog who had a game earlier that day.

[mu03eng]

I'm curious to see how the officiating goes today given how hard their were criticized yesterday. The Big East simply can't have the lead announcer openly panning the game flow and officials(rightly) for creating an unwatchable product.

So does the officials back off(which would help MU I think) or do they keep doing what they did last night(which helps X significantly)?

[fjm]

I'm curious to see how the officiating goes today given how hard their were criticized yesterday. The Big East simply can't have the lead announcer openly panning the game flow and officials(rightly) for creating an unwatchable product.

So does the officials back off(which would help MU I think) or do they keep doing what they did last night(which helps X significantly)?

Sadly, as Raferty said last night, this is exactly what the NCAA wanted. High scoring games by way of low contact. Unfortunately I don't see they officiating changing.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'm curious to see how the officiating goes today given how hard their were criticized yesterday. The Big East simply can't have the lead announcer openly panning the game flow and officials(rightly) for creating an unwatchable product.

So does the officials back off(which would help MU I think) or do they keep doing what they did last night(which helps X significantly)?

I don't think the refs calling the game differently would help MU. We have the advantage having adjusted to the way the game was called last night - if they aren't calling fouls, but MU is playing conservative D to avoid foul trouble - X may be up 15-20 before we can adjust. 

Obviously we don't want to see our guys, especially Luke and Hank, in foul trouble but I think the advantage is on Marquette's side if the game is called the same way as it was last night, at least initially

[DUNKS45]

57 total fouls last night, sometimes very hard to watch. I agree we need to pound the ball inside and keep Luke on the floor. If we shoot free throws like last night we'll be in the game.
Let's go WARRIORS!!  opportunity is knocking, let's kick down the freekin door.

[naginiF]

Anyone watch the G'Town - DePaul game?  i didn't but box score shows 45 total fouls, wondering if it had the same feel as our game

[4everwarriors]

Kick their startin' five in da nads, hey?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Sadly, as Raferty said last night, this is exactly what the NCAA wanted. High scoring games by way of low contact. Unfortunately I don't see they officiating changing.

I don't like our situation tonight with our legs....close game until the last 10 to 12 minutes.  Hope I'm wrong.

[Jay Bee]

Stay out of foul trouble and hope X doesn't have a great eFG%, a''inal?

[jsglow]

I just heard that Luke was whistled for his first foul in the hotel lobby.

 

[keefe]

I just heard that Luke was whistled for his first foul in the hotel lobby.

 

well done

[fjm]

I just heard that Luke was whistled for his first foul in the hotel lobby.

 

Great... Hope heldt and Mache are ready to sub in

[Jay Bee]

What's crazy about our games vs. X.. so different

Game 1:
We had our 3rd best TO% game as an offense.. all was good, except that we shot like complete crap. 37.1% eFG%, our WORST of the entire season. Meanwhile, X let us keep it close by turning it over 7% more often than us.. and shooting a miserable 5/22 (22.7%) from deep.. but they converted 54%+ of their 2FGA for an eFG% of 46.6%, giving them the large advantage in the most important factor and a victory.

Game 2:
We turned it over a ton.. 27% of our possessions, and more than double game 1. Our scorching 63.2% eFG% kept us in the game and included 9/17 from deep. Nonetheless, this time it was Xavier who did a good job of limiting turn overs.. their 2FG% wasn't good (sub 44%), but they hit 13/20 3FGA for 65%... as Wojo said last night, 'pick your poison'

Strange two games so far... I might play it like game 2.. try to limit turnovers and make them beat you with incredible outside shooting. Let's limit fouls.

[Goose]

Tough game. Depending on their NCAA draw I might pick them to go all the way. I think they are really good and best team we played this year by a wide margin.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tough game. Depending on their NCAA draw I might pick them to go all the way. I think they are really good and best team we played this year by a wide margin.

Me too. I think X is one of the best 2 or 3 teams in the country. But we've played them tight twice and it's tough to beat a team 3x in a row. I obviously don't LOVEour chances, but do think it'll be a good game.

[MerrittsMustache]

FWIW, there were 8 total fouls called in the first half of the Gtown-Nova game and no FT attempts.

[JakeBarnes]

What's crazy about our games vs. X.. so different

Game 1:
We had our 3rd best TO% game as an offense.. all was good, except that we shot like complete crap. 37.1% eFG%, our WORST of the entire season. Meanwhile, X let us keep it close by turning it over 7% more often than us.. and shooting a miserable 5/22 (22.7%) from deep.. but they converted 54%+ of their 2FGA for an eFG% of 46.6%, giving them the large advantage in the most important factor and a victory.

Game 2:
We turned it over a ton.. 27% of our possessions, and more than double game 1. Our scorching 63.2% eFG% kept us in the game and included 9/17 from deep. Nonetheless, this time it was Xavier who did a good job of limiting turn overs.. their 2FG% wasn't good (sub 44%), but they hit 13/20 3FGA for 65%... as Wojo said last night, 'pick your poison'

Strange two games so far... I might play it like game 2.. try to limit turnovers and make them beat you with incredible outside shooting. Let's limit fouls.

Seems like so far the refs are swallowing the whistles during the Nova/Hoya game...

[T-Bone]

Great points and analysis. But you forgot one:

Prey.

.

Fixed?

[MerrittsMustache]

I could see the MU-X game being similar to the Nova-Gtown game going on now. Ugly, back-and-forth first half, underdog hanging in there, favorite came out kind of flat, etc. Unfortunately, in the end, I think that in both games, the favorite will pull away and win by 7-10 points as the 'dog runs out of gas and the talent disparity becomes obvious.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Nova Gtown have attempted 0 free throws in the 1st half.