Big East Non Conference Results

[GGGG]

BTW, that "good loss" to Belmont is looking worse and worse.  They are 5-4 and lost to Valparaiso last night.

If Marquette doesn't make the tournament this year, I think greater blame lies with the Belmont loss and the crapping of the bed v. Iowa.  Not the "bad wins" versus the like of Grambling.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

BTW, that "good loss" to Belmont is looking worse and worse.  They are 5-4 and lost to Valparaiso last night.

If Marquette doesn't make the tournament this year, I think greater blame lies with the Belmont loss and the crapping of the bed v. Iowa.  Not the "bad wins" versus the like of Grambling.

Funny - I am going to blame it on a young team that isn't quite ready for the challenge of a real schedule.  Who knows how this all sorts out by the end of the year....frankly my hope is that by the middle of BEast season we look like a team ready to handle a tougher lineup of competitors.

[79Warrior]

BTW, that "good loss" to Belmont is looking worse and worse.  They are 5-4 and lost to Valparaiso last night.

If Marquette doesn't make the tournament this year, I think greater blame lies with the Belmont loss and the crapping of the bed v. Iowa.  Not the "bad wins" versus the like of Grambling.

Doubt it. The first game of the season will mean very little, if anything, in the whole scheme of things. Our play in Jan-March will have far more to do with our chances that a loss to Belmont in the first game of the season.

[Herman Cain]

To make the tournament, I honestly think we need to go 6-0 against St. John's, Depaul, and Seton Hall. Because I don't think we can hope for much better than 6-6 against the remaining six teams in the BEast.

I agree with this.

Also I think Arizona State could possibly be a good win for us. They face #18 saturday. TAMU do you have any view to this game.

[The Equalizer]

Play around with RPI Wizard. It's not pretty.

If we lose to Wisconsin, go 8-0 against SH/DPL/SJU/CREI, 0-2 vs. Nova, and 4-4 against the rest (winning at home, losing away) our RPI ends up at 52 with a SOS of 101. That would have me shaking on selection Sunday. Probably need at least 2 in NYC, three to be safe.

If everything stays the same but we beat Wisconsin (a tall order) its 36 RPI and a SOS of 100. RPI looks good but the SOS worries me. Need to win one in NYC to be safe.

Lose to Wisconsin, 6-0 against the basement, 0-2 vs. Nova, and 5-5 verus the middle gets us a 59 RPI and 101 SOS. Not getting into the tournament. Better win the conference championship.

Keep everything the same but beat Wisconsin its an RPI of 50 and SOS of 101. Need at least two in NYC, but probably three to be safe.

So yes, I think we need to go 12-6 in the Big East to make the tourney. If not, we pretty much have to win the whole damn NYC tourney.

Also, a 13-7 record almost guarantees we will end up as a 4 or 5 seed in NYC. Meaning Villanova will likely be waiting for us in the second round. I think we could play Nova 100 times and maybe win four or five times.

So in other words, you expect this year to be very much unlike the prior two seasons.

First, lets start with the redundancy of citing both RPI and SOS.  SOS is already completely baked into the RPI.  A strong SOS doesn't make a 52 RPI any better, nor does a weak schedule make it worse.  52 is 52.

Second, RPI is only one factor used to select teams.  At-large teams with ranks in the upper 50's (and even 60's) are selected every year. The ones left out have poor conference performance or are from a weak conference.

To wit, last year's NCAA exclusions with RPI above 50 are:
#54 Green Bay - Weak conference
#56 La. Tech - Weak conference
#47 Richmond - Weak Conference
#59 Stanford - 10-10 in conference

LSU and Mississippi both made it with an RPI of 58 and 60 respectively and conference records of 11-8, which is 11-7 in conference with first-round losses.

Unless you consider the Big East to be a weak conference (which by the RPI it won't be), even a game over .500 should put us firmly in the field if our RPI is anywhere north of 60.

Your worst case scenario of an 11-7 record and an RPI of 59 is likely good enough to make the tourney, even if we lose the first game in the Big East tournament. It would give us an RPI profile almost identical to LSU and Mississippi last year--except the Big East is a stronger conference than the SEC.

You MIGHT have to worry if we go 10-8 and lose the first game in the BET.  But that would put us on the bubble regardless of SOS.

BTW, strong SOS provides no guarantee of ameliorating mediocre conference performance.  Minnesota two years ago had the #9 SOS and RPI of 48--and didn't make the tournament.  Why?  Because they had a losing record in their Big Ten games.  Their #9 SOS did NOTHING to save them from an otherwise undeserving conference record.

The bottom line is that an undeserving record won't get you in despite SOS
And a deserving conference record will get you one regardless of SOS.

The ONLY thing we have to worry abut is winning 11 or more conference games. 

[GGGG]

Doubt it. The first game of the season will mean very little, if anything, in the whole scheme of things. Our play in Jan-March will have far more to do with our chances that a loss to Belmont in the first game of the season.

Well sure if we go 14-4 in conference everything is going to be fine.  But RPI is based on the total schedule.  It isn't weighted on when we lost.  So if MU goes 11-7, and ends up on the outside, the loss to Belmont is going to be a problem.  It is a bad loss.

[Golden Avalanche]

St. John's lost to Fordham.  Should be an interesting battle between SJU and DePaul for the basement.

This is funny. Two weeks ago after Iowa, multiple posters in this forum were of no doubt that the Johnnies were better then Marquette.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I agree with this.

Also I think Arizona State could possibly be a good win for us. They face #18 saturday. TAMU do you have any view to this game.

If Marquette can beat Arizona State on a nuetral floor, TAMU can beat them on their own floor. The Aggies have a veteran point guard, some young but dominate posts, and are shooting 40% from three. If ASU can pull off the upset I'd be surprised.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Equalizer,

You make a lot of good points. I don't pretend to know what the selection committee will focus on when it comes time.  It just seems to me that that a team with 59 RPI and its most significant wins being GTWN, BUT, and XAV at home would have some things to worry about. I wouldn't feel confident.

[Dawson Rental]

Creighton could be our competition for a 5th bid out of the Big East.  Yeah, yeah, team's get bids, not conferences.  But if the selection committee is debating between us and Creighton, this could help us a little.  Now we just need to beat Creighton twice.

Creighton will not be in competition for the fifth spot in the conference.  Right now that spot looks to belong to Providence, hopefully with MU in hot pursuit.

[brewcity77]

I have been one of the biggest naysayers of this years non-conference schedule. It sucks and puts us in a huge hole. But I have a very very hard time believing that a 22-11 (12-6) Big East team isn't a stone cold lock. Especially with the parity around hoops. Lots of teams are going to have lots of losses.

Plus, how useful is the RPI wizard at this juncture? I don't anticipate any of our dreadful opponents to vastly improve from last year, but you never know. I think 11-7 probably gets us in (definitely if we beat Wisconsin), 12-6 or better were a lock. I do understand that our OOC SOS will be very poor - I've been harping on that since the schedule was released.

We're halfway through non-conference, so RPI Wizard is actually at the point where it does have some use. Now granted, if 4-5 of our cupcakes turn into competitors for their league titles that could change things, but there is some value. Admittedly, the longer the season goes, the more accurate it becomes.

Your worst case scenario of an 11-7 record and an RPI of 59 is likely good enough to make the tourney, even if we lose the first game in the Big East tournament. It would give us an RPI profile almost identical to LSU and Mississippi last year--except the Big East is a stronger conference than the SEC.

You MIGHT have to worry if we go 10-8 and lose the first game in the BET.  But that would put us on the bubble regardless of SOS.

BTW, strong SOS provides no guarantee of ameliorating mediocre conference performance.  Minnesota two years ago had the #9 SOS and RPI of 48--and didn't make the tournament.  Why?  Because they had a losing record in their Big Ten games.  Their #9 SOS did NOTHING to save them from an otherwise undeserving conference record.

The bottom line is that an undeserving record won't get you in despite SOS
And a deserving conference record will get you one regardless of SOS.

The ONLY thing we have to worry abut is winning 11 or more conference games. 

Right now, I feel like total wins is a better metric, with 22 being the minimum for an at-large and 23 likely making us a lock. If we lose to Wisconsin and go 11-7 in league while losing our first BET game, we will likely have an RPI in the 70s. That won't get it done. Lose to Wisconsin but go 12-6 in league and lose our first BET game, RPI goes up to 59 and we at least have a shot. Beat Wisconsin, go 11-7, lose first BET game, also a 59 RPI. Lose to Wisconsin, go 11-7 in league, win one BET game, RPI 60 at least gives us a shot. Beat Wisconsin, go 11-7, win one BET game, have a RPI 50 and likely be a lock.

Simply, 21 total wins likely won't be enough, 22 total wins will have us squarely on the bubble with a chance to get in, 23 or more wins and we should be in.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

So in other words, you expect this year to be very much unlike the prior two seasons.

First, lets start with the redundancy of citing both RPI and SOS.  SOS is already completely baked into the RPI.  A strong SOS doesn't make a 52 RPI any better, nor does a weak schedule make it worse.  52 is 52.

Second, RPI is only one factor used to select teams.  At-large teams with ranks in the upper 50's (and even 60's) are selected every year. The ones left out have poor conference performance or are from a weak conference.

To wit, last year's NCAA exclusions with RPI above 50 are:
#54 Green Bay - Weak conference
#56 La. Tech - Weak conference
#47 Richmond - Weak Conference
#59 Stanford - 10-10 in conference

LSU and Mississippi both made it with an RPI of 58 and 60 respectively and conference records of 11-8, which is 11-7 in conference with first-round losses.

Unless you consider the Big East to be a weak conference (which by the RPI it won't be), even a game over .500 should put us firmly in the field if our RPI is anywhere north of 60.

Your worst case scenario of an 11-7 record and an RPI of 59 is likely good enough to make the tourney, even if we lose the first game in the Big East tournament. It would give us an RPI profile almost identical to LSU and Mississippi last year--except the Big East is a stronger conference than the SEC.

You MIGHT have to worry if we go 10-8 and lose the first game in the BET.  But that would put us on the bubble regardless of SOS.

BTW, strong SOS provides no guarantee of ameliorating mediocre conference performance.  Minnesota two years ago had the #9 SOS and RPI of 48--and didn't make the tournament.  Why?  Because they had a losing record in their Big Ten games.  Their #9 SOS did NOTHING to save them from an otherwise undeserving conference record.

The bottom line is that an undeserving record won't get you in despite SOS
And a deserving conference record will get you one regardless of SOS.

The ONLY thing we have to worry abut is winning 11 or more conference games.

Nice post. I agree.

[MU82]

The ONLY thing we have to worry abut is winning 11 or more conference games.

Hell, I worry about us winning against Maine.

I'm a worrywart from way back!

[mubb3434]

Odd lines for tomorrow...

Georgetown is -5.5 vs Cuse and Providence is a dog vs Rhode Island. Go Big East!

[Litehouse]

Creighton will not be in competition for the fifth spot in the conference.  Right now that spot looks to belong to Providence, hopefully with MU in hot pursuit.

I was counting Providence as the 4th, so I guess that would make Georgetown as our potential competition for 5th.

[brewcity77]

I was counting Providence as the 4th, so I guess that would make Georgetown as our potential competition for 5th.

Villanova still looks like the clear front runner, while Xavier looks like a pretty convincing number two. After that, I think it's a logjam. Not sure much separation there is between Butler, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, Creighton, and maybe even Seton Hall if Whitehead can be a team player against decent teams. Not at all sold on the Pirates, as I figure any Kevin Willard team is a trainwreck waiting to happen, but they definitely have the talent to be in the mix for the middle of the league.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I was counting Providence as the 4th, so I guess that would make Georgetown as our potential competition for 5th.

Providence has surprised me. I picked them as 6th in the conference preseason. Really nice jumps from Junior Lomomba and Bentil combined with Rodney Bullock and Ryan Fazekas making an immediate impact. As a rule, I don't trust teams that only go 7 deep in non-conference. One injury or early foul trouble and you can be in a world of hurt. In their one loss to Michigan State they had 5/7 players end with four fouls

[Herman Cain]

Georgetown quality win over Syracuse

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Villanova still looks like the clear front runner, while Xavier looks like a pretty convincing number two. After that, I think it's a logjam. Not sure much separation there is between Butler, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, Creighton, and maybe even Seton Hall if Whitehead can be a team player against decent teams. Not at all sold on the Pirates, as I figure any Kevin Willard team is a trainwreck waiting to happen, but they definitely have the talent to be in the mix for the middle of the league.

I think you can safely put Creighton and Seton hall on the bottom tier. I fully expect to go 2-0 against Depaul, St. Johns, Seton Hall and Creighton.

[MarquetteDano]

I think you can safely put Creighton and Seton hall on the bottom tier. I fully expect to go 2-0 against Depaul, St. Johns, Seton Hall and Creighton.

Century Link is a tough place to win at so I would not be surprised with a loss at Creighton.  And to go 6-0 versus DePaul, St. John's, and Seton Hall with a lot of freshmen?  I hope you are right but I think we go 5-1 at best.  That would still be 6-2 versus the bottom teams.  That is pretty good.  Only have 5-5 versus the top clubs and we would be 11-7.

[PGsHeroes32]

Century Link is a tough place to win at so I would not be surprised with a loss at Creighton.  And to go 6-0 versus DePaul, St. John's, and Seton Hall with a lot of freshmen?  I hope you are right but I think we go 5-1 at best.  That would still be 6-2 versus the bottom teams.  That is pretty good.  Only have 5-5 versus the top clubs and we would be 11-7.

Getting a lot of wins in the 8 games vs Gtown, Nova, Butler and X will be tough though.

I think we can split Prov at least.

[brewcity77]

I think you can safely put Creighton and Seton hall on the bottom tier. I fully expect to go 2-0 against Depaul, St. Johns, Seton Hall and Creighton.

I don't think Creighton will win 10+ games, but I do think they'll get 7-8 wins, and not all of those will be against bottom feeders. They could very well get 4-5 key wins that ultimately cost a couple teams bids to the Tournament.

Seton Hall is an enigma. They have done pretty well against their schedule, picking up a few decent wins with only one bad loss (though on a neutral court). If they beat Wichita State and can win out in non-con, 9-9 in Big East play would get them in the conversation. They have the talent to do that, just not sure they have the coaching.

[PGsHeroes32]

If we go 11-7 in BE we will make the tourney. Book it.

I don't think it happens though.

[Herman Cain]

Another good day for the Big East today. Georgetown win was a big plus and Providence beat their instate rival Rhode Island.

League is now 57-18

[ChicosBailBonds]

Georgetown quality win over Syracuse

Not sure how good the Cuse is this year